房地产市场的外在因素

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,External Factor in Real Estate Markets,房地产市场的外在因素,Chengri Ding,Associate Professor,National Center for Smart Growth,University of Maryland,Special Assistant,To President of Lincoln Institute of Land Policys China Program,丁成日,博士,副教授,马里兰大学 城市规划系,马里兰大学 城市理性增长国家中心,总裁特别助理,林肯土地政策研究院 中国项目部,Outline,大纲,External Factors of Property Markets,房地产市场的外在因素,Highest and Best Principle,最高与最佳原则,Impact of Political,Social,and Economic Forces,政治、社会和经济力量的影响,External Factors of Property Markets,房地产市场的外在因素,2.Regional and Community Analysis,区域与社区分析,3.Neighborhood Value Analysis,邻里单元价值分析,4.Land Use Planning,土地利用规划,Political Forces influencing Value,政治因素影响价值,Property rights and ownership,财产权和所有权,The fifth and Fourteenth Amendments in US,美国第五和第十四修正案,Federal financing aids and fiscal policy controls,联邦财政补助和财政控制,Rate of interests,利率,Impact of Political,Social,and Economic Forces,政治、社会和经济力量的影响,Social Forces influencing Value,社会因素影响价值,Population growth rate(timely and spatially),人口增长率（时间与空间）,Demographic composition(age,race,gender,income),人口构成（年龄、种族、性别和收入）,Housing preference(Housing/per 1000 people),住房偏好（住房,/,千人）,Impact of Political,Social,and Economic Forces,政治、社会和经济力量的影响,General Economic forces Influencing Value,影响价值的经济因素,Gross national product,国民生产总值,Per capita income and real wage levels,人均收入和实际收入水平,Unemployment as a measure of full employment.Correlation between unemployment,property foreclosures,and property tax delinquencies,失业率衡量就业水平。失业率，丧失赎回权和拖欠财产税的相关性,Personal saving and investments,个人存款和投资,General business and real estate activity,主要商业和地产活动,State and Regional Forces Influencing Value,国家和区域因素影响价值,Differentials of policy and law,政策和法律差异,Differentials of economic prospective,经济远景差异,etc.,等等,Government Tools in the Real Estate Market,房地产市场中的政府手段,Analyze how government actions affect property value and make appropriate changes,分析政府行为如何影响房地产价值并促其变化,Monitor market activity to queue proposals,lessening the boom/bust cycle,监控市场行为以排序发展次序，减缓涨跌循环,Use economic development policies to attract uses that fit with the regions master plan,使用经济发展政策来引导土地使用，其方式与强度与区域总体规划相一至,Local Government and Property Value,地方政府和房地产价值,Ability to provide service affects value,服务能力影响价值,Crime rate,犯罪率,Fire protection,火警预防,Ease of doing business affects value,从事商务活动的方便性影响价值,Property tax rate,房地产税率,Regulatory environment,政策规范环境,Liquor license,酒精饮料销售许可,Zoning requirements,分区要求,Local Government and Property Value,地方政府和房地产价值,Externalities from nearby uses affect value,周围环境等外在因素影响环境,Noise from airports,机场噪声,Pollution from factories,工厂污染,Monitoring Land Market Activity,监控土地市场活动,Goal is to prevent overbuilding that leads to vacancies,disinvestment,and blight,目标在于防止建设过度而导致空置、蚀本和经济衰落,Still need to encourage commercial development to increase property tax base and promote economic development,仍需要鼓励商业开发以增加房地产税基数和促进经济发展,Monitoring Land Market Activity,监控土地市场活动,Policy Tool:Development Queuing,政策工具：开发次序,Planners accept proposals and grant permission to build only if market conditions indicate that demand can absorb the new space,规划师审查规划方案，仅审批那些市场可以消化的建设,Planners estimate market conditions through traditional means gathering data about rents,vacancy rates,current construction,job growth,and spending patterns,规划师采用传统方式,收集租金数据，空置率，建设现状，就业率增长和消费模式,来估计市场形势,The Real Estate Market,房地产市场,Immobility,固定性,Indestructibility,不可破坏性,non-homogeneity,异质性,Property dissimilarity imposes special market conditions,房地产的差异性形成了特殊的市场条件,durability of real estate causes mal-adjustments in both supply and demand on a local market level,房地产的持续性导致对地方市场供求的不当调整,Studying the underlying forces creating supply and demand for real property,研究形成房地产供求的潜在力量,2.Regional and Community Analysis,区域和社区分析,Cause of Urbanization,城市化的结果,City Spatial Form and Growth,城市空间形态和增长,Regional Analysis,区域分析,Regional analysis techniques:economic base analysis,regional input-output analysis,区域分析方法：经济基础分析，区域投入产出分析,Population Trends and Characteristics,人口趋势和特征,Economic Measures of Community Growth,社区增长的经济量化,Land Use Pattern,土地利用模式,Regional and Community Analysis,区域和社区分析,Neighborhood Defined,邻里的定义,The Neighborhood Age Cycle,邻里单元的周期,3.Neighborhood Value Analysis,邻里单元价值分析,Neighborhood Characteristics,邻里单元的特征,Physical features,物质特征,Demographic characteristics,人口特征,Economic influences,经济影响,3.Neighborhood Value Analysis,邻里单元价值分析,4.Land Use Planning,Zoning,土地利用规划,分区,Density,密度,Use,使用,Intensity,强度,Location,区位,Urban Bid Rent,Agricultural Rent,Distance from Center,Period III,Period III:Demolition,Density Control-Floor Area Ratio,密度控制,容积率,CBD,Urban Edge,$,Period I,Period II,Period III:Urban