国际贸易_英语chap012讲解课件

,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,INTERNATIONAL TRADE,国际贸易,天津师范大学管理学院,周 红 博士 副教授,Chapter 12,Trade Blocs and Trade Blocks,贸易集团和贸易禁运,O,utlines of chapter 12,T,ypes of economic blocs,I,s trade discrimination good or bad?,T,he basic theory of trade blocs: trade creation and trade diversion,O,ther possible gains from a trade bloc,The EU Experience,North America becomes a bloc,Trade blocs among developing countries,Trade embargoes,O,utlines of chapter 12,贸易集团的类型,贸易歧视的利弊,贸易集团的基础理论：贸易创造和贸易转移,可能从贸易集团获得的其他收益,欧盟的经验,北美成为一个贸易集团,发展中国家的贸易集团,贸易禁运,12.1 Types of economic blocs,Trade bloc,: A group of countries that have agreed to have low or no barriers on trade among themselves, while maintaining regular barriers to trade with countries outside the bloc.,Free-trade area,custom union,Common market,Economic union,12.1,贸易集团的类型,贸易集团（,Trade bloc,）,：每个成员国都可以自由或者至少更加便宜地从其他成员国进口，同时对非集团成员国设置进口壁垒。欧盟便是这么做的，它允许成员国之间自由贸易，却限制从欧盟以外的国家进口。,经济集团的类型：,自由贸易区（,Free-trade area,）,关税同盟（,custom union,）,共同市场（,Common market,）,经济联盟（,Economic union,）,12.1 Types of economic blocs,Figure 12.1 Types of Economic Blocs,12.1 Types of economic blocs,Free-trade area,a trade bloc in which the member countries remove trade barriers among themselves but each keeps its own separate barriers to trade with outside countries.,在,自由贸易区,内，成员国之间的贸易壁垒被废除，但是它们各自仍保持对非成员国的贸易壁垒。,12.1 Types of economic blocs,Customs union,A trade bloc in which the member countries remove trade barriers among themselves and adopt a common set of barriers to trade with outside countries,在,关税同盟,中，成员国之间取消贸易壁垒，并且对外设置共同的贸易壁垒。,12.1 Types of economic blocs,Common market,a bloc of countries that have a customs union and also allow freedom of factor flows among themselves,在,共同市场,内，除实行关税同盟制度外，还允许要素在成员国之间全面自由流动（例如劳动力和资本）。,12.1 Types of economic blocs,Economic union,a bloc of countries that have a common market and also unify other economic policies,在完全的,经济联盟,内，成员国实行统一的经济政策，包括货币政策、财政政策和社会福利政策，以及贸易和要素的流动政策。,12.2 I,s trade discrimination good or bad?,Is trade discrimination good or bad?,“,stepping stone”,（,Joseph,E.Stiglitz,）,or a “stumbling stone”,（,Jagdish.Bhagwati,）,Good sides: forming a customs union or free-trade area must be good because it is a move toward free trade,Bad sides,Forming the trade bloc may encourage people to buy from higher-cost partner suppliers,destroying much gains from global trade,Causing international friction,12.2,贸易歧视的利弊,所有这些贸易歧视是好还是坏？有两种截然不同的观点。,一种很自然的观点是，建立关税同盟或者自由贸易区一定是好的，因为它向自由贸易迈进一步。,另一方面，也可以想到建立一个自由贸易集团带来的弊端，即便最初也是从贸易壁垒适用于所有国际贸易开始的。,第一，建立贸易集团会鼓励人们从高成本的成员国进口。,第二，贸易歧视理论具有,20,世纪,30,年代贸易互惠的意味。当时国家之间独立签订的协议抵消了大量全球贸易收益。,第三，组建贸易集团会引发国际摩擦，直接原因就是允许某些国家加入贸易集团就意味着将其他一些国家排斥在集团之外。,12.2 I,s trade discrimination good or bad?,WTO rules about trade blocs,The basic WTO principle is that trade barriers should be lowered equally and without discrimination for all foreign-trading partner (MFN),But WTO rules permit some deviations from MFN under specific conditions,One deviation is special treatment for developing countries,Another deviation permits trade blocs,invoving,industrialized countries if the trade-bloc removes tariffs and other trade restrictions on most of the trade among its members, and if its trade barriers against nonmembers do not increase on average.,12.2,贸易歧视的利弊,鉴于各种原因，世界贸易组织规则在原则上市反对贸易歧视的。,世界贸易组织的一个基本原则是对所有的外国贸易伙伴平等地、非歧视地降低贸易壁垒，即世界贸易组织主张的最惠国待遇原则。,但是，世界贸易组织的另外一些规则允许在特定条件下最惠国待遇原则实行例外。,一种例外是给与发展中国家的特殊待遇。,另外一种例外允许贸易集团将工业化国家包括在内，前提条件是贸易集团对成员国之间的绝大多数贸易取消关税和其他贸易限制，以及贸易集团不提高对非成员国的平均贸易壁垒。,12.3 The basic theory of trade blocs: trade creation and trade diversion,Trade creation,: The net volume of new trade resulting from forming or joining a trade bloc, and one source of gains in well-being from the trade bloc,Trade diversion,: The volume of trade shifted from low-cost outside exporters to higher-cost bloc-partner exporters, resulting from forming or joining a trade bloc, and the source of losses of well-being from the trade bloc.,12.3,贸易集团的基础理论：贸易创造和贸易转移,贸易创造（,Trade creation,）：,是指在关税同盟内部取消成员国之间的关税后，国内生产成本高的商品被成员国中生产成本低的商品所取代，来自成员国的低价进口商品替代了昂贵的国内生产的商品，成员国之间的贸易被创造出来。,贸易转移（,Trade diversion,）：,是指形成或加入一个贸易集团后，产品从过去进口自较低生产成本国转向从较高成本国进口，而造成贸易集团收益的损失。,12.3 The basic theory of trade blocs: trade creation and trade diversion,Figure 12.2 Trade Diversion versus Trade Creation in Joining a Trade Bloc: UK Market for Imported Compact Cars,12.3 The basic theory of trade blocs: trade creation and trade diversion,图表,12-2,中,A,图表示，初始状态为对所有进口小汽车征收统一关税（点,A,），英国加入了贸易集团后，取消了对德国等成员国的进口关税，但对于最便宜的来自于欧盟外的日本汽车，则并未取消关税。在假设供给曲线为水平的条件下，所有原来从集团外进口的最便宜的,10000,辆汽车，现在都从成员国（如德国）进口。由点,A,至点,B,的变化表示还新增加了,5000,辆车的进口，这给英国带来了国民福利收益（面积,b,），但同时由于从最便宜的集团外供应商那里进口,10000,辆汽车转变为从成员国的进口，导致了国民福利收益的损失（面积,c,）。在这种情况下，损失超过了收益，进而导致福利的,净损失,：,收益面积,b=(1/2)(6000-5500)(15000-10000)=1250000(,英镑,),损失面积,c=(5500-5000)*1000=5000000(,英镑,),净损失,=3750000(,英镑,),12.3 The basic theory of trade blocs: trade creation and trade diversion,图表,12-2,中,B,图表示，由于德国汽车的价格并不比日本汽车高出多少，加入贸易集团后，取消了对德国（和其他成员国）汽车的关税，于是新增了,9000,辆汽车的进口，进而得到由面积,b,代表的贸易创造。另外，,10000,辆轿车从价格最便宜的日本供应商转移至德国供应商，但这一贸易转移所带来的损失没有,A,图中那样大，所以：,收益面积,b=(1/2)(6000-5100)(19000-10000)=4050000(,英镑,),损失面积,c=(5100-5000)*1000=1000000(,英镑,),净收益,=3050000(,英镑,),12.3 The basic theory of trade blocs: trade creation and trade diversion,Trade creation,Area b represents two gains: gains on extra consumption of the product and gains on replacement of higher-cost by low-cost partner production,Trade diversion,Area c represents the national loss from the low-cost outside exporters to higher-cost bloc-,parner,exporters,12.3,贸易集团的基础理论：贸易创造和贸易转移,贸易创造,即图表,12-2,中,A,图的面积,b,所示的收益。面积,b,代表了英国经济的两种收益：消费更多成品的收益，以及英国高成本的生产被集团成员国低成本生产替代的收益。,贸易转移,是英国的进口从集团外的低成本出口商转向集团内高成本出口商的贸易转移量。它导致面积,c,的收益损失。,12.3 The basic theory of trade blocs: trade creation and trade diversion,Some conclusions,t,he gains from a trade bloc are tied to trade creation and the losses are tied to trade diversion,T,he lower the partner costs relative to the outside-world costs,th,e greater the gains.,A,ny trade diversion will be less costly,T,he more elastic the import demand, the greater the gains.,T,he trade creation in response to any domestic price decline will be greater.,12.3,贸易集团的基础理论：贸易创造和贸易转移,一些结论：,贸易集团产生的收益来自贸易创造，而损失来自贸易转移。,成员国与集团外的国家的成本差异越小，成员国获得收益越大。贸易转移的成本就越低。,进口国需求弹性越大，成员国的收益就越大。任何因国内价格的下降而引起的贸易创造就会更大。,12.4 Other possible gains from a trade bloc,An increase in,competion,can reduce prices,An increase in,competion,can lower costs of production,Firms can lower costs by expanding their scale of production,Increases opportunities for business,invesments,12.4,可能从贸易集团获得的其他收益,竞争的增加导致价格下降,竞争的增加能够降低生产成本,厂商可以通过扩大生产规模来降低成本,建立贸易集团会为商业投资增加机会,12.5 The EU Experience,The European Union from 1957 to 1992 was a,customs union, in which member countries remove tariffs and other barriers to trade among themselves and adopt a common set of external tariffs.,In 1992 the Single European Act promoted free movement of workers and capital, so the EU became a,common market,. (The act also required removal of many remaining,nontariff,barriers to trade among the member countries.),As the EU further integrates, including the adoption of the,euro,as a common currency by 17 of its members, the EU is moving toward,economic union, in which all economic policies would be unified.,12.5,欧盟的经验,欧洲联盟的前身在,1957-1992,年间是,关税同盟,。关税同盟取消了成员国之间的关税和其他形式的贸易壁垒，并采用一个共同的对外关税。,1992,年，,单一欧洲法案,促进了劳动力和资本的自由流动，所以欧盟变成了,共同市场,。（同时，该法案还要求成员国之间消除许多残存的非贸易壁垒。）,随着欧盟进一步一体化，包括,17,个国家采用欧元作为它们的共同货币，欧盟朝着,经济联盟,迈进。在经济联盟中，所有的经济政策都将统一。,12.6 North America becomes a bloc,NAFTA,：,Provisions and Controversies,NAFTA,：,Effects,Rules of Origin,R,ules of origin,determine which products have been produced within the free-trade area, so that they are traded freely within the area, and which products have not been produced within the area. These rules guard against a firms ruse of doing minimal processing within the area and then claiming that the outside product is locally produced.,12.6,北美成为一个贸易集团,北美自由贸易区：规定和争议,北美自由贸易区的影响,原产地规则,原产地规则（,R,ules of origin,）,可确定哪些产品是在自由贸易区内生产的，可在自由贸易区内自由流通；同时也能确定哪些产品不是在区内生产的。这个规则可以制约外国公司通过只在区内进行少量的加工而声称产品在本地生产的行为。,12.7 Trade blocs among developing countries,Efforts by developing countries to form trade blocs failed in the 1960s and 1970s, but they have become more successful since 1990.,Trade among the MERCOSUR countries in South America expanded since the bloc was formed in 1991, but some of this expanded,intrabloc,trade is trade diversion.,12.7,发展中国家的贸易集团,发展中国家建立贸易集团的努力在,20,世纪,60,年代和,70,年代遭遇了失败。但是自,1990,年以来取得了很大的成功。,南方共同市场内成员国间的贸易从,1991,年集团成立以来得到快速增长，但其中的一些集团内贸易的增长是由贸易转移造成的。,12.8 Trade embargoes,Trade discrimination can be more belligerenta trade block instead of a trade bloc. A nation or group of nations can keep ordinary barriers on its trade with most countries, but insist on making trade with a particular country or countries difficult or impossible.,To wage economic warfare, nations have often imposed,economic sanctions or embargoes, which are discriminatory restrictions or bans on economic exchange. What is being restricted or banned can be ordinary trade, or it can be trade in services or financial assets, as in the case of a ban on loans to a particular country.,12.8 Trade embargoes,Trade discrimination can be more belligerenta trade block instead of a trade bloc. A nation or group of nations can keep ordinary barriers on its trade with most countries, but insist on making trade with a particular country or countries difficult or impossible.,To wage economic warfare, nations have often imposed,economic sanctions or embargoes, which are discriminatory restrictions or bans on economic exchange. What is being restricted or banned can be ordinary trade, or it can be trade in services or financial assets, as in the case of a ban on loans to a particular country.,12.8,贸易禁运,贸易歧视可以表现得更为激进,用贸易禁运替代贸易集团。一个国家或者国家集团可以对大多数贸易国实行一般的贸易壁垒，但却几乎不与某些特定国家或国家群体发生贸易。为了发动经济战争，这种国家通常实施,经济制裁（,economic sanctions,）或禁运（,embargoes,）,，即歧视性限制或者禁止性经济交往。被限制或者禁止的可以是一般贸易，也可以是服务或金融资产交易，如禁止对特定国家提供贷款。,12.8 Trade embargoes,禁止经济往来的后果不难想象。一个国家拒绝与被制裁国进行贸易将同时使两国在经济上收到损害，并且为第三国创造贸易机会。但是谁受到的损害最大？谁受到的损害最小？,规模,是重要的，因为规模决定了被制裁国家受到的损失是否足以弥补制裁国因禁止贸易而受到的损害。,为了分析决定经济制裁成败的基本因素，先观察一个特例：对被制裁国实施完全的出口禁运。图表,12-3,设想了禁止向伊拉克出口所有商品的情况。该图描绘了自,1990,年伊拉克开始侵略科威特时，许多国家对伊拉克实施了贸易限制的情形。除了限制向伊拉克出口，这些国家还禁止从伊拉克进口石油或其他商品，或者向其提供贷款。这些制裁是在联合国的一项决议下实施的，而且大多数经济强国都参与了这个反伊拉克行动。但仍然有约旦、伊朗和其他一些国家同情伊拉克并且在一些方面继续维持与伊拉克的贸易关系。,12.8 Trade embargoes,Figure 12.3 Effects of an Embargo on Exports to Iraq,12.8 Trade embargoes,图表,12-3,中,B,图显示没有实施禁运的国家对伊拉克的出口为,S,n,，而且这种供给是有限的且缺乏弹性的。在实施禁运之前，实施禁令国家对伊拉克的出口是该国国内供应与国内需求之差。如果把,图表,12-4,中的禁运国和非实施禁运国的两类出口供给加在一起，就会得到在实施禁运之前对伊拉克有效的总出口供给曲线,S,n,+S,e,。,在实施禁运前，伊拉克的进口需求量（,D,m,）等于图表,12-3,中,B,图的点,F,表示的总出口供给量。此时的价格是,P,0,，而且伊拉克进口数量,Q,0,。,当一些国家决定对伊拉克实施出口禁运时，全球对伊拉克出口供给中的一部分会消失。在图表,12-3,中,B,图的出口供给,S,e,由于禁运而消失。剩下的对伊拉克的出口供给仅为,S,n,。由于进口被限制，伊拉克人发现可进口的商品变得更稀缺。随着自由贸易均衡点,F,转移为禁运均衡点,E,，产品的价格从,P,0,上升至,P,1,。,进口品的稀缺使伊拉克整体福利损失了面积,b+c,。,12.8 Trade embargoes,禁运也给实施国带来了损失，因为它们不能出口到伊拉克并且世界价格（伊拉克之外的）也略微有所下降。它们的损失为面积,a,，,a,在图表,12-3,中以两种相同的方式表示,:,在,A,图中，为出口国家的生产者剩余和消费者剩余之差。,在,B,图中，为禁运国家不再对伊拉克出口而损失的生产者剩余。,与此同时，没有实行禁运的国家以更高的价格对伊拉克销售更多的商品，而获得面积,b,的收益。全球整体的损失则为面积,a+c,，损失是由限制世界贸易所造成的。,12.8 Trade embargoes,贸易禁运失败可分为两种情况：,政治上失败的禁运（,political failure of an embargo,）和经济上失败的禁运（,economic failure of an embargo,）,。,经济上失败的禁运给被制裁国带来较少损失，但却使实施国遭受巨大的损失。图表,12-4,描述了两种遭受经济失败的（出口）禁运的情况，在这两种情况下，供给和需求弹性都是关键。,12.8 Trade embargoes,Figure 12.4 Two Kinds of Economically Unsuccessful Embargoes,12.8 Trade embargoes,如图表,12-4,中,A,图所示，实施禁运的国家出口供给曲线非常缺乏弹性，意味着它们的生产者十分依赖于对目标国出口。禁止这类出口并且从市场供给中去掉供给曲线,S,e,会给实施禁运的国家带来,面积,a,的损失。相反，目标国的进口需求曲线,D,m,却具有弹性。即便价格从,P,0,到,P,1,的稍微上涨，其需求就会大幅度下降。显然，目标国可以依靠非禁运国家的供给（仅靠曲线,S,n,），很好地渡过难关。相应地，它仅仅损失较小的,面积,b+c,。在这种情况下，任何国家在实行禁运前都必须深思熟虑，是否有必要让目标国仅遭受面积,b+c,的较少损失，而使本国承受面积,a,的较大损失。,图表,12-4,中,A,图中不利于实施禁运的因素是，,实施禁运国家自身的出口供给曲线的,低价格弹性,，以及被实施禁运国家进口需求曲线或者非实施禁运国家竞争性出口供给曲线的,高价格弹性,。,12.8 Trade embargoes,图表,12-4,中,B,图描述的是一种对双方都没多大经济影响的“失败”的禁运情况。这里的禁运实施国有幸拥有高价格弹性的供给曲线（,S,e,），以至于减少一些贸易仅仅给它造成面积,a,轻微损失。但是另一方面，目标国也拥有一条有弹性的需求曲线,D,m,，同时又有一条具有弹性的竞争性供给曲线,S,n,。因此，目标国也仅遭受面积,b+c,的较少损失，因此能在较长时期内抵抗禁运。,12.8 Trade embargoes,总结：,出口禁运（其效应与进口禁运效应相对应）的基本分析，揭示了这类经济战争成败取决于贸易弹性。,当被禁运的国家拥有低的贸易弹性，意味着它难以承受与实施禁运国的禁止贸易，贸易禁运更可能成功。当禁运实施国具有很高的贸易弹性，意味着贸易量的减少不会对其产生很大的影响，贸易禁运也更可能成功。正如理论分析表明的，禁运通常由贸易大国对贸易小国实施，并且取得成功的禁运往往是迅速且全面的制裁。,Thank you!,