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,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Unit of measure,*,Footnote,Source:Source,Working Draft-Last Modified 7/29/2004 6:23:07 PM,Printed 7/29/2004 5:22:18 PM,Lightening Strikes Twice:California Faces a Real Risk of A Second Power Crisis,Lake Tahoe Energy Conference,July 30,2004,CONFIDENTIAL,This report is solely for the use of client personnel.No part of it may be circulated,quoted,or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey it is not a complete record of the discussion.,Taking The Right Steps To Ensure A Powerful Future,更多免费资料，尽在,5 steps that will ensure a long-term sustainable market for power,THE STATE IS AT RISK OF ANOTHER POWER CRISIS,BUT 5 KEY STEPS WILL HELP TO ENSURE A SUSTAINABLE POWER MARKET,Action needs to be taken today to prevent another energy crisis,New generation needs to be built today,given the long lead time,and a mechanism for market-based contracts with utilities needs to be introduced,California should introduce mandatory time-of-use metering for all classes of customers,New transmission needs to be built and facilitated through a expedited and coordinated approval process by the PUC,ISO,CEC,and FERC,A formal capacity market combined with a mandatory planning reserve target(e.g.,15-20%)needs to be in place by 2006,The State should re-introduce elements of retail choice,providing an opportunity for large consumers to shop for power,CEC estimates indicate that operating reserves could drop below typical“emergency”levels if we have a hot summer,Unfortunately,the CECs demand estimates appear low relative to trend and a“high demand case”(i.e.,hot summer)may be as likely as a 1-in-5 occurrence,Taking into account realistic levels of future demand,operating reserves could be extremely tight by 2006 as low as 5.8%(in a 1-in-5 year demand case),1,THE STATES ENERGY AGENCIES PROJECT A NEAR-TERM RISK OF LOW RESERVE MARGINS IN A HOT YEAR,*,Operating reserve margin calculated as(Available Supply Peak Demand)/(Peak Demand),Source:California Energy Commission(July 8,2004 update to June 24,2004 report),1-in-10 year(hot),1-in-2 year(average),CEC ESTIMATES,August 2005,August 2006,August 2007,August 2008,Projected California state operating reserve margin*,Percent,August 2004,7%target=Stage One emergency level,5%target=Stage Two emergency level,Reserve margins consistently drop beginning in 2006,Demand,2,ENERGY AGENCY FORECASTS OF FUTURE DEMAND ARE OPTIMISTIC COMPARED TO ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS,ESTIMATES OF 1-IN-2,YEAR PEAK DEMAND,Peak demand(average weather),after conservation,GW,*,Regression projection based on historic weather,historic GSP,current GSP projections(5.6%),and average weather,*Based on historic CAGR for peak demand growth before including conservation(underlying growth of 1.88%for 1983-2003)and adjusted for expected 2004-2008 conservation in California(provided by CEC),Source:California Energy Commission;Bureau of Economic Analysis;E,Regression model*,CEC-July 2004,Trend*,Different models of demand,CEC-May 2003,For 2006,the CECs estimate is,1,000 MW,below trend-line estimates and,2,100 MW,below a regression model estimate,3,THE POTENTIAL FOR A“HIGH DEMAND CASE”IS AS HIGH AS A 1-IN-5 EVENT,RATHER THAN JUST A 1-IN-10 EVENT,1 in 2 demand,1 in 5 demand,1 in 10 demand,Distribution of average statewide peak temperature,Number of years observed over past 40 years,*,Based on BAEF regression-model estimates of 2006 peak demand,Source:California Energy Commission,Temperature range,Degrees Fahrenheit,8 out of the last 40 years(or 20%),peak temperatures have been 101 degrees or higher,There is little demand difference,though,between 101 degrees and 101.5 degrees,1 in 10,101.5,1 in 5,101,Potential 2006 peak demand*,GW,BASED ON,HISTORIC DATA,+3.4%,+2.7%,4,TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A DIFFERENT VIEW OF FUTURE DEMAND,THE RISK OF SHORTAGES IS EVEN STARKER,*,Operating reserve margin calculated as(Available Supply Peak Demand)/(Peak Demand),*As much as 2,000 MW would be required to maintain a planning reserve margin of 15%for the 1-in-5 case,which would equate to a 1-in-2 operating reserve of 12.1%and a 1-in-5 operating reserve of 9.1%,Source:California Energy Commission(July 8,2004 update to June 24,2004 report);McKinsey analysis,1 in 5 year,1 in 2 year,BAEF ESTIMATE,7%target=Stage One emergency level,750 MW of new capacity will be needed before 2006 to maintain a 7%operating reserve under a 1-in-5 case*,Given the lead time for new construction,permitting and demand side management needs to begin today,August 2005,August 2006,August 2007,August 2008,Projected California state operating reserve margin*,Percent,5%target=Stage Two emergency level,Demand,5,THE STATE IS AT RISK OF ANOTHER POWER CRISIS,BUT 5 KEY STEPS WILL HELP TO ENSURE A SUSTAINABLE POWER MARKET,5 steps that will ensure a long-term sustainable market for power,Action needs to be taken today to prevent another
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