Scheduling&CostControl（英文版）nwf

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,UMT 1-1,*,MGT 251:Scheduling & Cost Control,Dr. Frank Toney,Instructor Notes,1,Notes for UMT Page 1-1,Agenda,Schedule,* Start Stop,* Breaks every 50 minutes,Socratic method,Materials: notebook, supplemental notes, benchmarking practices,Homework: Olympics web sites. Each team 2 articles about costs or schedule. Note Web Site,Test on Sunday,Beijing Olympics case study,Culture,2,UMT 1-1,Franks bio,Education:,MBA from U of Toledo, Doctorate from Nova Southeastern U, PMP. UOP Doc Leadership Chair; GWU; U of California faculty.,Leadership:,CEO of 5 companies; 4 boards, 2 trusts,Writing:,7 leadership & project management books. Many articles. Board of,Best Practices Journal,.,Project Management:,Projects,in over 20 countries.,PMI Activities:,Standards, Research, Academic committees.,Benchmarking:,Lead Top 500 Project Management Benchmarking Forum. 120 companies.,Personal:,Wife & 3 kids, like to fly. Live in Scottsdale, AZ,3,UMT 1-1,Introduction to Scheduling & Cost Control,Document Flow,4,Notes for UMT Page 1-1,Introduction to Scheduling & Cost Control,Why Scheduling & Cost Control are Important,Major problem now in I/T industry. 300 400% over estimates.,Helps allocate resources,Guides project performance,Establishes performance baselines evaluate performance,Helps manage project change,80% of project problems originate in planning,Presents image of professionalism,5,Notes for UMT Page 1-1,Introduction to Scheduling & Cost Control,Objectives of the Course,Improve career opportunities,Improve organizational performance,Learn estimating that is valid, reliable, accurate.,Apply forecasting techniques,Understand risk estimating & evaluation,Understand the WBS: its impact on scheduling, costing, risk analysis,Investigate the critical chain concept,Learn project evaluation techniques,Understand project control methods,Detail EVM techniques,Learn project closeout tools,6,Notes for UMT Page 1-1,Introduction to Scheduling & Cost Control,Structure of the Course,Module 1: Estimating,Module 2: Estimating best practices,Module 3: Cost estimating basics,Module 4: Forecasting,Module 5: Estimation & risk,Module 6: WBS & scheduling,introduction,Module 7: Critical chain & time,boxed scheduling,Module 8: Project evaluation,Module 9: Project control,Module 10: Earned value,management,Module 11: Project close-out,7,UMT 1-1,Modules 1 & 2: Estimating,Objectives of Modules 1 & 2,Explain the importance of Estimating,Describe estimating problems,Present best estimating practices,Explain measurement theory & practice,8,Notes for UMT Page 1-2,Modules 1 & 2: Estimating Preamble 1-3,Predicting the Future,Historical,* Prophets, seers, visionaries,* Two components (a) the prediction, (b) had to come true.,* Spiritual, mystical overtones,Modern,* Intuition,* Pragmatic,Includes,* Quantitative analysis: math, observe, measure, replicate,* Qualitative: abstract (love, spirit), intuition,9,UMT 1-1,Modules 1 & 2: Estimating (p 1-5),Formal vs. Informal Estimates,Formal estimates: retained as part of the project record.,* Schedule,* Budget,* Memos,Informal estimates: no record kept.,* Casual discussions and predictions,10,UMT 1-1,Modules 1: Estimating,Time, Money, Resources:,Constraints & Assumptions,11,Notes for UMT 1-10,Module 2: Good Estimating,Other Estimating Guidelines,Padding estimates means the project starts on an inaccurate base,Estimates fail to adequately account for risk,Scope changes are not accounted for,Ethical dilemmas result from political pressure and low balling,Establish an accuracy state of mind,Use the project team,12,Notes from UMT page 2-7,Module 2: Good Estimating,Establish Clear Measurement Metrics,Metrics characteristics,* Simple, easy to understand, interpret,and compile, reliable, and comparable,* Lend themselves to being rolled-up,into portfolio wide statistics,* Encourage behavior that results in,positive project and portfolio results,Metrics Problems,* Measurement, compiling, analyzing,and reporting of performance,metrics are expensive,* Face-to-face management of,projects may be sacrificed,* Too much emphasis on,easy-to-obtain quantitative metrics,13,Notes for UMT page 2-8,Module 2: Good Estimating,Potential Metrics Used,Customer satisfaction,Milestones,Deliverables,Critical path monitoring,Periodic reviews,Financial and Non time based performance measurements,Other quantitative measurements,Subjective performance measures,Portfolio performance measurements,Measure the cost of professional project managers,The cost of the project organization,14,Notes for UMT page 2-8,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics,Objectives of Module 3,Chart of accounts & its use,Cost estimating accuracy,Budgeting; top down vs. bottom-up,Parametric/analogous estimating,Designing to cost,Level of effort estimates,15,Notes for UMT page 3-2,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics,Basic Estimating Considerations,The project manager is responsible for the project estimates,Estimating is time consuming and expensive,Estimate to an appropriate level of detail,Budget in cash,Include the forgotten items (maintenance, petty cash),Communicate the manner in which estimates can change,16,Notes for UMT page 3-2,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics,Communicate Assumptions and Level of Accuracy,Construction,I/S,Order of Magnitude,+75% to -25%,+300% to +100%,Budget Estimate,+25% to -10%,+100 to +25%,Definitive Estimate,+10% to -5%,+25% to -5%,17,Notes for UMT page 3-5,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics,Budget Type Impacts Speed, Efficiency and Effectiveness,Bottom up budgets,are detailed,Top down budgets,are fast,Zero base budgets,justify all expenses and revenues,Check-book budgets,are easiest,Percentage base budgeting,builds on a solid foundation,Progressive and rolling budgets,compensate for scope changes,18,Notes for UMT page 3-9,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics,Universal Code of Accounts Increases Budget Accuracy Through Benchmarking,19,Notes for UMT page 3-15,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics,Percentage of Revenue:Combining top down & bottom up,Prior Year % of Sales Next Year % of Sales,(Same as Last Year),Cash inflow,Revenue 1,500,000 100% 1,650,000,100%,Cash Outflow,Cost of Goods 1,000,000 67% 1,105,500,67%,- - - -,Gross Margin 500,000 33% 544,500,33%,Direct Expenses,:,Store Rental 72,000 4.8% 79,200,4.8%,Utilities 26,000 1.7% 28,050,1.7%,Labor 180,000 12% 198,000,12%,Advertising 120,000 8% 132,000,8%,- - - -,Total Expenses 398,000 26% 437,250,26%,Indirect Exp,50,000 3.3% 54,450 3.3%,PROFIT,52,000 3.5% 52,800 3.2,%,(rounding error),Most popular method of forecasting & budgeting,Always budget based on actual cash flows. Show cash inflows and outflows not payables and receivables.,20,Notes for UMT page 3-18,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics,Define the Types of Costs Contained in the Budget,Use,standard costs,to increase speed and ease understanding,Direct costs,are associated with one project,Indirect costs & overhead,are spread over more than one project,Budget for direct or controllable expenses,Variable vs. fixed costs.,Q: Equipment. Fixed cost of $1,500. Variable of $100 per unit. What is cost of 10 extra units? (A: $1,000),21,Notes for UMT page 3-18,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics,Cost Basic Estimating Tools and Techniques,Learning curve,* Parametric tool,* Double,#s,of time to do something duration of,time reduced.,Law of diminishing returns.,Q: extra cost vs. extra revenue.,Depreciation,Cost management plan,. Describes the management of cost variances (scope changes),22,Notes from UMT page 3-18,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics,Team Activity,The Bid Proposal is the Toughest Budgeting Task,Preparing the Bid Proposal,Your small information systems company has been asked to bid a project for a large, local oil refinery. The company is known for establishing long term and profitable relationships with vendors that have exhibited superior performance. It is important that your organization be awarded this bid. You know that two other, well respected IS companies are also bidding the job.,Your task is to prepare a budget consisting of your best estimate of the true costs of the project. From this, select a bid price. Clearly differentiate between your estimated total cost for performing the project and your bid price. Raw data is given on the next graphic:,23,Notes for UMT page 3-20,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics,Break Out:,The Bid Proposal Raw Data,Activity,Est. Cost,Est. Time,Tot. Budgeted Cost,1. Planning, prep., drawings,$1,500/day for the team,4-5 days,2. Hardware, we build,Est build cost is $20K, We usually mark up 45%,3. Software,Programmer pd $35/hr. Usually bid at $75/hr,30 work days,4. Vendor SW,$300/computer. Plan 6 computers. Usually markup 25%,5. Installation,Installers pd $35/hr. Usually bid at $75/hr,8 work days,6. Training,Instructors pd $35/hr. Usually bid at $75/hr,5 work days,7. Factory OH,20% of project cost,8.Head office Overhead,15% of project cost,9. Ex Warranty,2% of project cost,10. Shipping,Est. $2,000,11. Travel,$350 per day,Est 4 work days,Total,24,Notes for UMT page 3-20,Module 4: Forecasting,Objectives of Module 4,Normative vs. extrapolative forecasting,Trend extrapolation,Multiple regression,Delphi Methodology,25,Notes for UMT page 4-2,Module 4: Forecasting,Budgets and Forecasts can be more Accurate,Contingency reserves, reduce risk of over runs in meeting objectives,Management reserves, for unknowns,Budget for accuracy, use contingency funds for risk,Apply contingency and buffer psychology,26,Notes for UMT page 4-32,Module 4: Forecasting,Parametric & Analogous Estimating Improve Accuracy through Simplifications,Heuristics,give a rough idea of costs.,Gross margin in manufacturing this type of product is 45%.,Parametric estimates,are simple formulas.,The last house I built like this was $100 per foot. Therefore the cost will be about $200,000.,Analogous data,is gained from prior projects.,The last house I built like this cost about $200,000. I would expect this one to be about the same. Includes data bases like the UCO Accounts.,27,Notes for UMT page 4-32,Module 5: Estimating & Risk,Objectives of Module 5,Impact of risk on estimates,Evaluation of risk factors,Estimating risk vs. uncertainty,Incorporating pessimism (beta distributions),Triangular distributions,Monte Carlo Analysis,Risk assessment groups,Life cycle costing,Data gathering/data bases,28,Notes for UMT page 5-2,Module 5: Estimating & Risk,Generic Risk Evaluation Matrix,29,Notes for UMT page 5-5,Module 5: Estimating & Risk,Other Sources of Risk Identification,WBS:,Still an an important tool,Staffing plan:,any potential people risks?,Procurement management plan:,opportunities or risks related to vendors?,30,Notes for UMT page 5-5,Module 5: Estimating & Risk,EMV: Most Popular Quantitative Tools for Risk Analysis,(,PMBOK,p139),Statistical independence:,Used for EMV and decision trees. Tossing a coin. Events are independent of each other.,Expected monetary value:,Impacted by,risk proneness,or,risk aversiveness,Amount,Value,Probability,Of Winning,EMV,$50,.01,$.50,$2,.10,$.20,0,.89,$.00,Total,1.00,$.70,31,Notes for UMT page 5-5,Module 6: The Work Breakdown Structure& Project Scheduling Basics,Objectives,Work breakdown structure details of construction and benefits,WBS as basis for costing,WBS as basis for scheduling,Scheduling basics,32,Notes for UMT page 6-2,Module 6: The Work Breakdown Structure,Work Breakdown Structure defines the Scope of the Project,We love the WBS,Heart of the project planning and definition effort.,Technique for breaking down the project into its component elements.,Not mandatory but important,No hard or fast rules about putting it together.,Not a a scheduling tool,Does not show dependencies,33,Notes for UMT page 6-2,Module 6: The Work Breakdown Structure,Work Breakdown Structure Benefits,Shows the project visually,Builds the team,Focuses on deliverables,Forces planning and methodology,Identifies work packages and groups of activities,Serves as the basis for scheduling, cost, spec details, performance measurement, metrics.,34,Notes for UMT page 6-2,Module 6: Project Scheduling,Estimating Considerations: How Long is Time?,Working time or work days,Productive time,Elapsed time,Productivity level,Continuous duration,Duration interruptible,35,Notes for UMT page 6-39,Module 6: Project Scheduling,Schedule Supporting Detail,Responsibility assignment matrix.,Activities and whose is responsible.,Resource spreadsheet.,Effort needed from each resource during each time period.,Resource Gantt chart.,When each resource is scheduled per task.,Resource histogram.,Alternative schedules,Scheduled contingency reserves.,36,Notes for UMT page 6-39,Module 6: Project Scheduling,Other Scheduling Considerations,Resource Leveling Adds time usually,Resource constrained schedule i.e., cash, Einstein,Time-constrained (Y2K).,Reverse resource allocation,37,Notes for UMT page 6-39,Module 7: Critical Chain & Time-Boxed Scheduling,Objectives of the Module,Application of critical chain as a management tool,Investigate the psychological dimensions of scheduling,Using buffers to increase scheduling accuracy,Time-boxed scheduling to increase project speed,Managing the players,Miscellaneous time-boxed issues,38,Notes for UMT page 7-2,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling,Increasing Project Speed,Multi-functional project management,Overlapping project phases,Modularize (sub-projects),Value analysis,Time management,39,Notes for UMT page 7-48,Module 7: Critical Chain & Time-Boxed Scheduling,Multi-functional Project Management,40,Notes for UMT page 7-21 & 7-48,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling,Fast Tracking: Overlapping Phases,41,Notes for UMT Page 7-48,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling,Modularize (Sub-projects) for speed,42,Notes for UMT page 7-48,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling,Fast Tracking,Value Analysis for improved speed and cost,* Review each activity related,to time and cost,* Critically review the,processes,* Review elapsed time vs.,work time,* Can activities be done,concurrently,43,UMT 1-1,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling,Value Analysis for Speed,Purpose:,The value analysis is a rigorous review of project costs and work packages. It is used to reduce schedule duration and costs. Consider Elimination of any project activity, product, or service component that does not satisfy these evaluation questions,What are highest priorities?,It clearly contributes to value.,Its time & cost is proportionate to its usefulness.,All the activities and features are needed.,It is the best available for the intended use.,It represents the fastest & lowest cost method of attaining the objective.,It is faster & lower cost than a standard product or contract service i.e.,It uses the proper tooling, equipment, (resources) and procedures considering the volumes involved.,It is faster & lower cost than comparable goods or services provided by suppliers.,Our speed is fastest and costs are the lowest in the industry.,Its specifications are the least restrictive needed to achieve the objective.,There are no ways to reduce time & cost that we have not considered.,Can we use standard parts, components, approaches?,44,Notes for UMT page 7-48,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling,Time Management for Speed,High schedule & cost discipline,Bring in higher quality project leader and team members,Involve vendors & stakeholders,Work longer hours & weekends.,Add extra shifts.,Add people to critical path,Use extra resources to complete non-critical path work packages early. Free resources later.,45,Notes for UMT page 7-48,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling,Discipline Increases Project Speed,Positive definition from the Greek: to train, instruct, correct,Most research about teens,Why need discipline:,* Human nature to resist being forced; to question authority,* Desire peer recognition, attention, power, revenge, feel inadequate,Most problems are minor and easy to resolve,People and teams want discipline,* Expect orderliness,* Fewer distractions,* Clear expectations,* More productivity,* Reduces stress,46,UMT 1-1,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling,Discipline Increases Project Speed (p2),How discipline,* The leader is key,* Be a role model,* Be visible,* Accept responsibility for,subordinates behavior,* Signal awareness,* Solicit discipline input,* Focus on the objective,* Delegate discipline authority,* Clear rules, standards,punishments,* Treat people as individuals,47,UMT 1-1,Module 8: Project Evaluation,Objectives,Understand the importance of project evaluations,* Pre-project,* Mid-project,* Post-project,Evaluation methodology,48,Notes for UMT page 8-2,Module 8: Project Evaluation,Audits Give an Arms Length, Objective and Independent Pictureof Project Performance,The audit is a formal process,Audit timing increases effectiveness,Composition of the auditors is important,Measure the value of the audit,49,Notes for UMT page 8-14,Module 8: Project Evaluation,Reviewing the Project as a Manager,Start with the big piles of money,Determine that the total numbers are logical,Apply simple ratios, heurisms, parametric data and standards,Review the budget/schedule foundation & assumptions. Still valid?,50,Notes for UMT page 8-15,Module 8: Project Evaluation,Killing Projects Gone Astray,The strategic aspects of project termination,Terminating troubled projects,The financial benefits of rapid project termination,* Frees funds for other,investments,* Execute more projects with,the same resources,* Generate incremental,revenues,51,Notes for UMT page 8-22,Module 9: Project Control,Objectives,Function of control in project management,Use of variances,Management by exception in project control,Variances: schedule, budget, resources,Tools for resource control,Measuring control effectiveness,52,Notes for UMT page 9-2,Module 10: Earned Value Management,Earned Value:,Measures Cost and Schedule Performance with Money,53,Notes for UMT page 10-2,Module 10: Earned Value Management,Earned Value Formulas,Measuring,Costs,Budget vs. Actual Performance,* Cost Variance (CV) = EV - AC,* Cost Performance Index (CPI) =,EV/AC,* Estimate at Completion (EAC) = BAC/CPI,* To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) =,(BAC - EV)/(BAC-AC),Measuring,Schedule,Forecasted vs. Actual Performance,* Schedule Variance (SV) =,EV-PV,* Schedule Performance Index (SPI) =,EV/PV,54,Notes for UMT page 10-2,Module 10: Earned Value Management,Cost Control: Earned Value,CV = EV-AC (150-250) = ($100,000),CPI = EV/AC (150/250) = .60/60%,EAC = BAC/CPI = $1,000,000,BAC EV 600 - 150,TCPI = - = - = 1.28,BAC-AC 600 250,SV = EV-PV = 150-200 = ($50,000),SPI = EV/PV = 150/200 = .75/75%,55,Notes for UMT page 10-2,Module 10: Earned Value Management,Earned Value Offers Benefits for Specific Applications,A high degree of accuracy is required,When milestones are too infrequent to use for schedule evaluation,On projects with overlapping project phases where there are few convenient places where milestones can be placed,When there are numerous sub-projects and the various elements progress at different rates,50/50 rule applies for activities in progress,56,Notes for UMT page 10-2,Module 10: Earned Value Management,Earned Value Allows Continuous Tracking of Performance,57,Notes for UMT page 10-2,Module 11: Project Closeout,Deliver the product or service,Termination celebration,Termination checklists maintain professionalism,Knowledge library. 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