中国的机遇和挑战及人民币国际化

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,*,毛志强,苏州大学金融工程研究中心,2011,年,3,月,中国的机遇和挑战及,人民币国际化,1,Over recent years China has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world,while at the same time,the US,Germany,the UK and many core western economies have struggled with the deepest recession since the 1930s.Chinas economic reform for the last 30 years is a great success.While this provides great opportunities for HSBC as well as many international companies,China also faces various challenges.The government has issued extra 43 trillion RMB over real economy and the foreign currency reserve has accumulated to 2.85 trillion USD(December 2010).These have become major factors to push inflation to intolerable level,which may cause social unrest.Other challenges include over-spending/investment in non-performing infrastructures,pressure to appreciate CNY,unsustainable house price income ratio(20 in many cities),high unemployment rate,increasing number of social unrest,large scale of corruptions etc.,The Chinese government has been trying to find a solution/comprise.One option is to develop CNY capital market overseas(CNH)to absorb the extra cashes.This can alleviate the pressure on Chinese domestic market and provides a good and unique opportunity for HSBC due to its special link to China.However this is achievable only when certain conditions are met,one of them being CNY to become a freely convertible currency.,2,中国经济概况,目前的问题和挑战,可能的解决方案,香港人民币（,CNH,）,机遇,小结,Contents,3,1.,我的中国,拿破仑在,19,世纪曾经说过,:,“,中国是一个沉睡的巨人。一旦醒来，整个世界都会震惊,.”,“China is a sleeping lion/giant.When she awakes,she will shake the world.”,2010,年,:6,个小时的进出口贸易量是相当于,1978,年全年的贸易量,.,4,主要经济指标,GDP,总量,:5.88,万亿美元,(2010),（美国,14,万亿）,人均,GDP:3800,美元（美国,46000,美元，英国,36000,美元）,GDP,增长率,:,过去十年平均是,8-10%,（西方是,1-3%),个人储蓄总量,:33,万亿人民币,(,总储蓄量,67,万亿人民币,),2010,年,12,月外汇储备为,2.85,万亿美元,5,GDP,6,GDP,7,基础设施投资,8,基础设施投资,/GDP,9,个人储蓄,10,外汇储备,11,2.,问题和挑战,过量的基础设施投资,(,高速公路，高速铁路，桥梁，办公楼等,),过剩的劳动力市场（尤其是农村劳动力）,非,100%,市场经济,看病难,教育费用高,高房价,通胀压力,生活的不稳定因素,贫富差别,(,国际,20-80,规则,中国,10-90,规则,0.4%,的最富有人口拥有,70%,的社会财富,),人民币的升值压力,有限的资本市场（股票市场）,12,就业压力,13,穷与富,14,3.,可能的解决方案,高速通货膨胀（减少贫富差别,消除超额发行的人民币；可能会使穷人生活更困难，造成社会不稳定）,人民币贬值（刺激出口，增加储备；欧美压力，过分依赖国外市场）,人民币国际化（监管和自由平衡，市场经济）,15,方案,1:,高速通货膨胀,消除,43,万亿过量发行的货币,消除过分的贫富差别,减少坏账,企业优化（让没有效益的企业倒闭）,低收入人群的基本生活保障,犯罪率会增高,影响社会的稳定性,房价会进一步上升,16,方案,2:,人民币贬值,刺激出口,鼓励国内消费,减少走私（奢侈品的价格更加合理）,外汇储备等值人民币增加,长期趋势,欧美的压力,(,美国的贸易逆差是因为人民币低估造成的,),过分依赖国外市场,过量的外汇储备,不利中国企业走出国门,17,方案,3(Best):,人民币国际化,(CNH),人民币贸易结算可降低外汇风险,中国企业在香港发行人民币债券,外国公司在中国发行人民币债券,人民币在国外存款和兑换,转移一部分人民币到海外,对中国经济的影响难于判断,热钱更方便进入中国,政府会失去控制和监管,国际金融市场对中国的操纵,18,CNY(CNH)Market Evolvement,从,2009,年人民币贸易清算,每个月有,3000,多交易是用人民币结算,2010,年，人民币贸易清算总额为,85,0,亿元,预计到,2013/15,年达到,:,二万亿元,到,2020,年人民币实行自由兑换,2009,年中国在海外投资额为,560,亿美元（,90%,在新型市场国家,),2010,年引入香港人民币（,CNH,）,2007,年国家开发银行在香港发行人民币债券,2010,年花旗银行发行存款券（,CD,）,2010,年,12,月中国银行在纽约开通人民币存款业务,汇丰银行在英国买卖旅行用人民币,目标：人民币自由兑换，自由交易,人民币作为国外储备货币（尤其是新型市场国家）,19,Trade Settlement,20,CNH,vs,Eurodollar,美元：,境内流通,12,万亿美元,境外流通,4,万亿美元（,25%,）,人民币,境内流通,67,万亿元,境外流通,900,亿元（,0.13%,）,6,千,7,百亿,(1%),3,万多亿,(5%),21,欧洲美元（,Eurodollar,）和香港人民币（,CNH,）,欧洲美元发起于,60,年代,25%,美元存款在境外,(0.16%,人民币存款在境外,),30%,美元债券在境外发行（,0.1%,人民币债券在境外）,人民币国际需求旺盛,问题,:,人民币的流动性有限,人民币不能自由流通,人民币作为国外的储备货币量很小,预期比,70,年代欧洲美元的发展相比要缓慢,22,4.,机遇,从无序到有序,法律逐步建全,投资环境日趋完善,工作环境不断改善,政策的透明度进一步提高,人权愈来愈受到尊重,腐败现象逐步得到抑制,23,GDP,24,GDP,(,以购买力计算,),25,GDP in 2050,26,人均,GDP,增长,(2010-2050),27,机会,人民币和中国资本市场,香港人民币，欧洲美元，欧洲日元,国际贸易的人民币结算,点心债券,(15,亿,1%of,人民币债券,),熊猫债券,外汇储备投资,战略投资,28,5.,总结,机遇和风险并存,29,汇丰在中国,1st,foreign bank to settle cross-border RMB Trade in Hong Kong,1st,foreign bank to settle cross-border RMB Trade in all ASEAN countries with HSBC presence,1st,foreign bank to settle cross-border RMB Trade in all six continents,1st,foreign bank to offer RMB current account and cheque services in Hong Kong,1st,foreign bank granted RMB corresponding banking license in China,1st,to issue RMB Certificate of Deposits in Hong Kong,1st,to issue RMB Bonds in Hong Kong,1st,to execute RMB Interest Rate Swap in Hong Kong,1st,to launch RMB Structured Deposit in Hong Kong,1st,and,Only,foreign bank to provide interbank RMB bond clearing/custody services in China,1st,and,Only,foreign bank as market maker of RMB-Ringgit direct quotation in China,No.1,Bond House for Offshore RMB and HKD issuances,30,