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Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre du masque,Premier niveau,Deuxime niveau,Troisime niveau, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Xxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author /, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / *,Consulting Skills Workshop,Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis Generation,Goals of this module,Lay out a systematic approach to solving business problems “Structured Problem Solving ”,Establish a common “modus operandus” for Consulting teams,Practice the suggested process on a real-life example, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Strategy is about thriving in a changing world,“The pictures pretty bleak, gentlemen . . . The worlds climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.”, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved, which is all about “decision making”,“Strategy is about making decisions”,The best strategy “makers” are able to blend analytic techniques with an understanding of the future uncertainties and simple good luck,Based on often imperfect information they make decisions and then drive implementation, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,There are two basic approaches to problem solving; but both can work,The “,theres a pony in here somewhere”,approach,The structured analytic approach,Potential,for rich,powerful,solutions,Scurry around analyzing tons of data to see if you can find something useful,Get the data,Potential for,good (and mixed) solutions,Define,problem,and,hypotheses, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Defining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendations,Develop Conclusions and Make,Recommendations,to Implement,Find Insights,Analyse,Data,Gather Data,Form Hypotheses,So what? aha, new thought,What you should do and how,Define the Issues,What are the questions keeping you awake at night?,Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypotheses,Analyse what the data tells us,Statements that provide direction and structure for the analysis, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Hypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our clients problem,Form Hypotheses,Define the Issues,Gather Data,Analyse Data,Find Insights,Develop Conclusions and Make,Recommendations,to Implement,So what? aha, new thought,What you should do and how,What are the questions keeping you awake at night?,Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypotheses,Analyse what the data tells us,Statements that provide direction and structure for the analysis, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Hypotheses are developed in three steps,What are the real strategic issues?,What is the impact on the organisation?,What are the priorities?,We think . . .,It looks like . . .,The right answer may be . . .,The options could be . . .,We believe this to be true . . .,A series of statements, not yet backed by data,Based on initial data search or expert opinions,A number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.,Is there a market for white label insurance products?,Direct channels are growing,Retailers have a strong channel and brand,There are existing products,Chubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is low cost of acquisition and profitable business,Define the question,Review and Describe Multiple Assertions,Form the hypothesis,1,2,3,A hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impact,Think through these three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it:,What is the issue?,What is the underlying opportunity?,Where is the advantage?,What do you think,causes,the issue?,What are the key drivers of the process?,What is the,impact,of the issue?,How can we tell there is an opportunity?,Why do we care?,“,x is an,opportunity,.”,“,due to.”,“,resulting,in.”,The Structured Problem Solving Process covers the life cycle of a consulting engagement,Define the Problem,Structure the Problem,Develop a Hypothesis,Execute the Analysis,Develop a Recommendation,Create the Communication,Deliver Communication,Follow Up with Client,Covered in current module,Covered later in the week, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,The Basics - Problem Solving Approach, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,DEFINE THE PROBLEM,STRUCTURE THE ANALYSIS,FIND THE SOLUTION,Our problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questions,Is there a problem or opportunity?,If so where does it lie?,Why does it exist?,What could we do about it?,What should we do about it?,Fine, but IWIK H2 do this., 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.,Always ask:,“Are they Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive (MECE)?”,Logical pyramids are basic tools for this approach, helping you to define, structure and solve the clients problem,1.,Ideas at any level in the pyramid must always be summaries of the ideas grouped below them,2.,Ideas in each grouping must always be the same kind of idea, and they must answer the same question implied by their summary,3.,Ideas in each grouping must always be in a logical order:,Main,Assertion,Key Line,Deductively or inductively,Trace course or time order,Divide or structural order (e.g., Sales, Marketing, Manufacturing, etc.),Classify or degree order (e.g., most important, 2nd most important, etc.), 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Logical pyramids increase the effectiveness of problem solving, results delivery and communication,Vertical structure,Horizontal structure,Key line / narrative,but help ensure thorough,analysis,while decreasing,complexity,and increasing the power,of presentations,Logical pyramids have simple rules,The effectiveness of our work depends heavily on how compellingly we can argue that the solution we put forward serves the client best,The reasoning we have to apply to come to our solution is complex and difficult to summarize for brief client interactions,To build succinct and compelling presentations of our work, we use logical pyramids as the preferred communication style:,Pyramids make information more memorable and meaningful,They lead to a clearer definition of the problems we solve,They structure our solutions to these problems and make them more compelling,Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.,which will make your work/life much easier to handle, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Define and Structure the Problem, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,“,If you dont know where,you are going,any road will take you there.”,-Anonymous,Why problem definition matters, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,In structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitions,US Car Market,Light Trucks,Passenger Cars,Big 3,Mini Vans,Sport Utility,Vehicles,Ford,GM,Chrysler,But be careful why does this not work?, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,M,utually,E,xclusive and,C,omprehensively,E,xhaustive,The most important rule for any structure you impose, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Divide,Clarify,DiagnosticFramework,Cause EffectFramework,StructuralFramework,Problem Structure,To help you solve a problem, your structure must:,Disaggregate the problem into smaller and easier to solve components,Be a “MECE” description of the problem and its possible solutions,Trace Cause,There are three ways to structure a business problem,Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”., 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Head,Hurts,Physical,Mental,External,Internal,Stress, Tension,Hypochondria,Bumped, Bruised Head,Allergies,Bad Weather, Sinus Headache, Flu, Cold,Brain Tumor,Water on the Brain,Example 1 disaggregate the problem into a diagnostic solution tree,SCooP,Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”., 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Store is within,shopping radius,do not know about the store,know about the store,never visit the store,enter the store,do not buy,make a purchase,do not come back,make repeat purchases,Location,Advertising,Signage, CI,Conversion,Customer Value,Root Cause,Example 2 (trace cause) disaggregate the problem into a cause-effect framework,How can TESCO improve its sales productivity (sales/sq.ft.)?, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Account,type,Pack size,REPURCHASE,Target market persuaded to repurchase?,DISTRIBUTION,Brand made,available?,TRIAL,Target market induced to try?,AWARENESS,Target market,aware?,Product,rejection,Price/value,rejection,Frequency,of use,Occasion,of use,Consumer,profile,Pack,Display,Promotion,type,Promotion,tuning,Sell-in,effectiveness,Feedback,If all lines of inquiry fail to reveal a problem source, go back to consider whether target market and consumer benefit have been accurately defined.,Attribute,awareness,Advertising,recall,Advertising,spending rate,Media,mix,Regional,weight,Advertising,communication,Target,market,Consumer,benefit,Region,Sales force,coverage,Sales force,direction,Trade,terms,Example 3 disaggregate the problem into an intrinsic structure,Why does Wimpys not show the anticipated financial performance?,Channel,Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.,Product,spec.,Selling,price,Brand,name,Packaging,POSITIONING,Brand properly positioned for themarket?, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Exercise 1 Kmart vs. Wal*Mart: define and structure Kmarts business problem,Situation,Kmart and Wal*Mart operate similar chains of Full line Discount stores,Different pricing strategies: Kmart follows a promotional pricing strategy of weekly sales, offering discounts on selected items, Wal*Mart follows an EDLP strategy (EDLP = Every Day Low Prices); Kmarts regular prices are higher than Wal*Marts, its sales prices are lower,Wal*Mart has a better price perception than Kmart,Kmart has a higher GM than Wal*Mart (23% vs. 21%),Kmart has significantly higher SG&A as percent of sales, which eliminate Kmarts Gross Margin advantage over Wal*Mart,Wal*Marts scale advantage is not driven by the number of stores, but by its sales per store (better sales per square foot),Kmart has significantly lower sales per square foot sales than Wal*Mart ($170 vs $250). With Wal*Marts sales productivity, Kmart would be about as profitable as Wal*Mart,Complication,Kmart is operating at break-even, and Wal*Marts aggressive expansion puts more and more of Kmarts stores into direct competition with Wal*Mart, decreasing their store contribution and Kmarts overall profitability,Question,?,Structure Kmarts problem to help its management devise a solution, including identifying the key question that our study must answer, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Exercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: first step is to logically organize the facts,Company,Competitor,Customer,Higher GM than WalMart (+),Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-),Aging stores,Hi / Lo pricing strategy,Lower net income than WalMart,Eroding same-store sales vs. WalMart,Sales / sq. ft. higher than Kmart,Aggressive expansion into Kmart territories,EDLP pricing strategy,Customers perceive WalMart prices better than Kmart, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Exercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: second step is to iterate to drive insight creation,Although Kmarts Hi/Lo pricing strategy leads to high GM, high SG&A has led to eroding sales productivity,Higher GM than WalMart (+),Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-),Aging stores,Hi / Lo pricing strategy,Lower net income than WalMart,Eroding same-store sales vs. WalMart,Sales / sq. ft. higher than Kmart,Aggressive expansion into Kmart territories,EDLP pricing strategy,Customers perceive WalMart prices better than Kmart,WalMart is aggressively expanding, with highly productive stores and a different pricing strategy than KMart,Customers perceive WalMart delivers higher value in some areas,How can Kmart improve its sales productivity (sales / sq. ft.)?, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Exercise 4,summary performance data for a credit card issuer whats the problem?,Note: All figures in 1000s. Assume no price,inflation and that interest rates have,remained constant,The 80/20 Rule 80% of the answer is in 20% of the data,Often we miss the goldmine because we are busy trying to value the shack built on top of it,This data, taken from a real client (but rebased,) tells the whole sorry story of their strategic problem in one picture, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Exercise 5,using a “quick and dirty” approach can produce surprisingly accurate results,30 million?,300 million?,3 billion?,30 billion?,300 billion?,How Many (Retail) Litres of Petrol Are Sold in France Per Year?,Data: French Population 60 million. 1 Gallon = 3.8 Litres, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Develop a Hypothesis, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Explicitly ties your analysis to your problem definition,Why hypotheses matter,They keep your effort,Helps define the level of accuracy that matters,Ensures you analyze no more than is needed to disprove hypotheses within a reasonable doubt,Allows quick check before massive data collection and crunching:,“If we confirm our belief in the hypothesis, will we be able to act on it?”,Keeps you efficient,On target,Accurate,Minimal,Actionable,On Time, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.,1. Rule,2. Case,3. Result,Rule,Case,Result,If we put the price too high, sales will go down,We have put prices too high,Therefore, sales will go down,Case,Result,Rule,We have put prices up,Sales have gone down,Sales have gone down because the price is too high,Sales have gone down,Sales go down when prices are too high,Probably we have put prices too high,Hypothesis,Result,Rule,Case,Abduction is a variation on deductive and inductive reasoning and a powerful tool to develop hypotheses,Deduction,Induction,Abduction,1. Case,2. Result,3. Rule,1. Result,2. Rule,3. Case, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,DEVELOP A HYPOTHESIS,What differentiates a good hypothesis from a bad one?,On target:,Answers the core question on the clients mind,Accurate:,Embraces the entire range of competitive or profit drivers,Minimal:,“Occams razor”,Actionable:,Can be quantified and tested,On time,Good Hypotheses Are,Cannot be refuted,Cannot possibly be quantified,Require you to “Boil the Ocean”,Are so obvious that nobody can intelligently disagree with it,Or look like an abstract model of a process consisting of boxes, arrows and clouds,Bad Hypotheses, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,DEVELOP A HYPOTHESIS,How to find a good hypothesis,There are proven processes to generate hypotheses:,Talk to lots of people about the core problem,Have a brainstorming case team meeting,Taguchi method ask “5 Whys”,Start with general validity checks for your hypotheses:,Assume perfect rationality how ought the business system to behave?,Look for analogies (other industries or problems),Imagine that you had perfect information what would the ideal analysis look like?,Try Lateral Thinking:,Think about the problem from a different angle, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,DEVELOP A HYPOTHESIS,What if your hypothesis is proven wrong?,You Win!,Hypothesis-driven thinking requires frequent reviews of the prevailing and current hypotheses:,Do we still think they are right?,Are we making progress towards disproving them?,Are they at the right level of generality/predictiveness?,Having proven a hypothesis wrong means you have made a big step towards answering your question!,“,A wise man sometimes changes his mind, but a fool never.”,-,Arabic Proverb, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,Summary,To be developed thank you!, 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved,
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