Ch增长与测量

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,数据来源与说明：根据历年,中国统计年鉴,“,国民收入核算”一章“地区生产总值收入法构成项目”一节中数字计算。,1995,年以来中国各省生产总值中劳动报酬所占份额（,%,）,1,数据来源与说明：根据历年,中国统计年鉴,“,国民收入核算”一章“地区生产总值收入法构成项目”一节中数字计算。,1995,年以来中国各省生产总值中劳动报酬所占份额（,%,）,安 徽,53.86,52.90,44.71,福 建,51.40,48.25,43.43,江 西,63.16,57.80,45.00,山 东,45.29,47.92,34.89,河 南,62.94,60.44,42.41,湖 北,58.26,57.31,42.53,湖 南,63.79,61.60,46.09,广 东,50.48,46.78,38.99,广 西,67.40,65.53,47.15,海 南,58.96,57.45,46.32,重 庆,56.38,53.36,47.92,2,数据来源与说明：根据历年,中国统计年鉴,“,国民收入核算”一章“地区生产总值收入法构成项目”一节中数字计算。,1995,年以来中国各省生产总值中劳动报酬所占份额（,%,）,四 川,57.68,56.88,45.87,贵 州,64.50,57.05,45.31,云 南,46.19,45.78,45.15,西 藏,72.77,66.61,52.04,陕 西,59.20,57.70,39.00,甘 肃,52.75,53.88,41.98,青 海,62.06,59.81,46.42,宁 夏,59.08,58.22,47.01,新 疆,55.90,51.73,45.89,数据来源与说明：根据历年,中国统计年鉴,“,国民收入核算”一章“地区生产总值收入法构成项目”一节中数字计算。,3,本章思考题,学习本章需要着重思考的几个问题：,GDP,核算：现行方法的不足及改进。,中国支出法,GDP,中消费比重偏低并不断下降的原因。,中国收入法,GDP,中劳动报酬分额偏低并不断下降的原因。,各国之间,GDP,比较的名义汇率方法和购买力平价方法。,4,建议阅读文献（,1,）,为了加深对本章内容的理解，建议阅读：,宋小川：“中国的,GDP,及其若干统计问题”，,经济研究,2007,年第,8,期。,李稻葵、刘霖林、王红领：“,GDP,中劳动份额演变的,U,型规律”，,经济研究,2009,年第,1,期。,白重恩、钱震杰：“国民收入的要素分配：统计数据背后的故事”，,经济研究,2009,年第,3,期。,黄先海、徐圣：“中国劳动收入比重下降成因分析,基于劳动节约型技术进步的视角”，,经济研究,2009,年第,7,期。,5,建议阅读文献（,2,）,为了加深对本章内容的理解，建议阅读：,罗长远、张军：“经济发展中的劳动收入占比：基于中国产业数据的实证研究,”,，,中国社会科学,2009,年第,4,期第,65-79,页。,白重恩、钱震杰：“谁在挤占居民的收入,中国国民收入分配格局分析”，,中国社会科学,2009,年第,5,期第,99-115,页。,卓勇良：“关于劳动所得比重下降和资本所得比重上升的研究”，,浙江社会科学,2007,年第,3,期（,新华文摘,2007,年第,14,期）。,表,1995,年以来中国各省（区、市）生产总值中劳动报酬所占份额（,%,）,数据来源与说明：根据历年,中国统计年鉴,“,国民收入核算”一章“地区生产总值收入法构成项目”一节中数字计算。,6,THE CIRCULAR FLOW,This,diagram is a schematic representation,of the organization of the,economy.,7,THE PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES FRONTIER,The production,possibilities frontier shows the,combinations of output that,the economy can possibly,produce.,8,THE PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES FRONTIER,A SHIFT IN THE PRODUCTION,POSSIBILITIES FRONTIER,9,特别建议：阅读,英,安格斯,麦迪森,.,中国经济的长期表现：公元,960-2030,年,M.,上海：上海人民出版社，,2008.,Angus Maddison,The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, Paris: OECD, 2001,（,英,安格斯,麦迪森,.,世界经济千年史,M.,北京：北京大学出版社，,2003.,）,10,特别建议：阅读,安格斯,麦迪森（,Angus Maddison,）当代最伟大的,经济历史数据考证与分析,专家。,The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective,Chinese Economic Performance in Long Run,11,特别建议：阅读,Douglass C. North,The Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 1993,12,Douglass C. North,Institutional Change and American Economic Growth, Cambridge University Press, 1971 (with Lance Davis).,The Rise of the Western World: A New Economic History, 1973,(with Robert Thomas).,Growth and Welfare in the American Past, Prentice-Hall, 1974.,Structure and Change in Economic History, Norton, 1981.,Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge University Press, 1990.,Empirical Studies in Institutional Change, Cambridge University Press, 1996 (edited with Lee Alston &,Thrainn,Eggertsson,).,Understanding the Process of Economic Change, Princeton University Press, 2005.,13,第,03,章 增长与积累,14,本章要点,经济增长取决于投入增长和技术进步。,资本积累来自于储蓄和投资。,人均产出水平，长期来看，同方向决定于储蓄率，反方向决定于人口增长率。,新古典增长模型说明，贫穷国家的生活水平最终会赶上富裕国家的生活水平。,15,GDP PER CAPITA FOR FOUR COUNTRIES, 1820-1998,数据与事实,16,四个显著的事实：,美国的长期增长记录比较显著，在,19,世纪和,20,世纪期间，平均收入增长了,16,倍。,日本已经从第二次世界大战之前的一个普通贫穷国家发展成为今天一个与美国的生活水平十分接近的国家。,挪威在最近,25,年获得了快速发展。,加纳,100,年很穷，今天依然如故。,数据与事实,17,本章和下一章的目的：解释上述事实。,结论,是：,经济增长决定于生产要素（特别是资本）的积累和生产率的提高。,本章说明这两个因素如何决定经济增长，以及储蓄率和人口增长率如何决定资本积累。下一章说明生产率的决定。,数据与事实,18,Growth accounting,explains what part of growth in total output is due to growth in different factors of production.,Growth theory,helps us understand how economic decisions determine the accumulation of factors of production. (Ex. How does the rate of saving today affect the stock of capital in the future?),增长核算与增长理论,19,Two sources of growth:,Increases in inputs,(N-labor,，,K-capital),Increases in productivity,(due to improved technology and a more able workforce),1. GROWTH ACCOUNTING,20,Production Function,1. GROWTH ACCOUNTING,21,The growth accounting equation,1. GROWTH ACCOUNTING,22,The Cobb-Douglas Function,For the U.S,1. GROWTH ACCOUNTING,23,ACCOUNTING FOR GROWTH IN PER CAPITA OUTPUT,The reasons,：,1. GROWTH ACCOUNTING,24,战后美国和日本年度增长率（,%,）对比,Period,GDP per capita,Capital per capita,U.S,Jap.,Diff.,U.S,Jap.,Diff.,1950-1973,2.42,8.01,5.59,2.48,6.92,4.44,1973-1992,1.38,3.03,1.65,2.89,6.38,3.49,1950-1972,1.95,5.73,3.78,2.66,6.67,4.01,Source: Angus Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992(Paris: OECD),25,主要国家占世界,GDP,的比重：,1700-2030,资料来源与出处：,26,主要国家占世界,GDP,的比重：,1700-2030,资料来源与说明：,27,主要国家占世界,GDP,的比重：,1700-2030,资料来源与说明：,28,主要国家占世界,GDP,比重：,1700-2030,结论,1,：中国,GDP,总量已经大大超过日本和苏联,结论,2,：尽管印度增长也很快，但与中国的差距在不断扩大,结论,3,：尽管美国,GDP,总量很大，但与中国的差距在不断缩小,29,2.EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES OF GROWTH,英,30,TWO GROWTH THEORIES:,Neoclassical theory, created by Robert Solow of MIT,，,focuses on capital accumulation and its link to savings decisions and the like.,Endogenous theory, studied in the next chapter, focuses on the determinants of technological progress.,3. GROWTH THEORY: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL,31,Steady-state equilibrium:,The steady state equilibrium for the economy is the combination of per capita GDP and per capita capital where the economy will remain at rest, or where per capita economic variables are no longer changing, or,.,3. GROWTH THEORY: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL,32,Determinants of the Economys Steady State:,The steady state is defined by and occurs at the values of y* and k* satisfying,3. GROWTH THEORY: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL,33,3. GROWTH THEORY: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL,Figure 3-3,34,The Transition path of the economy from an arbitrary to the steady state:,3. GROWTH THEORY: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL,35,3. GROWTH THEORY: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL,Figure 3-4,36,3. GROWTH THEORY: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL,Figure 3-5,37,3. GROWTH THEORY: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL,38,3. GROWTH THEORY: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL,Figure 3-7,39,3. GROWTH THEORY: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL,新古典增长理论的四个关键结论：,稳定状态的产出增长率是外生的，等于人口的增长率，与储蓄率无关。,储蓄率虽然不影响稳定状态的增长率，但会通过提高资本产出比率增加稳定状态的收入。,稳定状态的总产出的增长率，等于技术进步率和人口增长率二者之和。,新古典增长理论的最终预言：如果两个国家有相同的人口增长率，相同的储蓄率，以及相同的生产函数， 那么，他们最终将达到相同的收入水平。,40,第,01,章结束,41,