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,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,*,UnderstandingHotelValuationTechniques,October2015,1,Objectives,Whydowedovaluations?,Whyhotelaredifferentfromanyotherrealestate?,Whatis,value,?,Understandinghotelvaluationtechniques,Conclusion:whatisimportanttohaveinordertoproducea,goodhotelvaluation?,Conclusion,2,Whydowedovaluations?,Because:,companiesinthestockexchangemarketneedtoupdatethe,valueoftheirassetseveryyear;,hotelownersmightbegoingtoabankto,askforaloanoffering,thehotelascollateral;,hotelinvestorsmightbeinterestedinpurchasingaspecific,hotel;,hotelownersmightbewillingtoselltheirhotel;,Acompanywouldliketomergewithanothercompany,and,needtounderstandhowmuchcapitaltheyarebringingthrough,theirassets;,Manyotherreasons,3,Whyhotelaredifferentfromanyotherreal,estate?,Wehavealwaysbeentoldthat,thepriceofanhotelisequalto,thepriceoffivelittlegreen,houses,.ITISNOTTRUE!,4,Whyhotelaredifferentfromanyotherreal,estate?,OFFICE=valuedonm,2,basis,RENTEDONAm,2,BASIS,GENERATESCASHFLOWONAM,2,BASIS,RESIDENTIAL=valuedonm,2,basis,RENTEDONAm,2,BASIS,GENERATESCASHFLOWONAM,2,BASIS,5,Whyhotelaredifferentfromanyotherreal,estate?,Hotelsarenotrentedonam,2,basis,astheydonotgeneratecashflowonam,2,basis,Whatisthebasisofhotelincomegeneration?,Yotel,LondonGatwick(UK),BanfiCastle,Tuscany(Italy),WHotel,Barcelona(Spain),6,Whyhotelaredifferentfromanyotherreal,estate?,Hotelscashflowisgeneratedby:,Rooms,Food,&,Beverage,Gym,/,Spa,/,Health,Centre,Minor,Operating,Department,7,Whatisa,value,?,Open,Market,Value,Fair,Value,Likely,Future,Value,Investment,Value,Market,Value,Residual,Land,Value,Calculation,of,Worth,Mortgage,Landing,Value,8,“,Whatisa,value,?,“,Market,Value,is,the,estimated,amount,for,which,a,property,should,exchange,on,the,date,of,valuation,between,a,willing,buyer,and,a,willing,seller,in,an,arms-length,transaction,after,proper,marketing,wherein,the,parties,had,each,acted,knowledgeably,prudently,and,without,compulsion.,IVSC,1,9,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Fun,10,000Rule,Basic,EBITDAmultiplier,Yield,Expert,ReplacementCost,SalesComparables,onaperroombasis,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows,10,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Fun,10,000Rule,Takethepriceofatinofcoke,fromthehotelminibarand,multiplyitfor10,000,Example,Cokeprice=4Euro,Hotelvalue=40,000Europer,room,11,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Example,Cokeprice=4Euro,Hotelvalue=40,000Europerroom,Limitations,Priceofcokeinminibardonotincreaseinthesamewayas,hotelcashflows(imaginea3staranda5starhotel),Thismethodologydoesnottakeintoconsiderationany,performanceresultsforthehotel.Ifthehotelismakingor,loosingmoney,roompriceisthesame.,DONOTTAKEITTOOSERIOUSLY!,!,12,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Basic,EBITDAmultiplier,Yield,13,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Basic,EBITDAmultiplier,Yield,TakehotelsEBITDAandmultiplyitbyamultiplierinaccordance,tohotelsmarket,position,location,pastperformances,etc,Example,EBITDA=2,000,000US$,Multiplier=12,HotelValue=24,000,000US$,14,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Basic,EBITDAmultiplier,Yield,TakehotelsEBITDAanddivideitbyyourexpectedyield,Example,EBITDA=1,000,000Euro,Expectedlevelofyield=7%,HotelValue=,=14,285,000,1,000,000,7%,15,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Expert,ReplacementCost,SalesComparables,onaperroombasis,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows,16,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Expert,ReplacementCost,aidealaveragepurchaser,havinganaverage,levelofinformation,willverylikelybuyapropertyatamaximum,pricethatisequivalenttothecostofbuildingasimilarproperty,thatfeaturesthesamelevelofutility,SalesComparables,onaperroombasis,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows,17,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Expert,ReplacementCost,aidealaveragepurchaser,havinganaverage,levelofinformation,willverylikelybuyapropertyatamaximum,priceequivalenttothecostofbuildingasimilarpropertythat,featuresthesamelevelofutility,Example,Weneedmanyinformationsuchas:,Constructioncostperm,2,FF&E,Yearofconstruction,18,ReplacementCost,Past,Today,Constructioncosts,Laborcosts,FF&E,Constructioncosts,Laborcosts,FF&E,19,ReplacementCost,Past,Today,Constructioncosts,Laborcosts,FF&E,Constructioncosts,Laborcosts,FF&E,Technologyhasadvancedandnewbuildingtechniquesmakes,buildingtodaycheaperthanyesterday.,20,ReplacementCost,Past,Today,Constructioncosts,Laborcosts,FF&E,Constructioncosts,Laborcosts,FF&E,Laborcostshaschangeddrasticallyinthelast1020years.,Thisisevenmoredrasticindevelopingcountries.,21,ReplacementCost,Past,Today,Constructioncosts,Laborcosts,FF&E,Constructioncosts,Laborcosts,FF&E,Priceoffurnitureandfixinghasreduced,extensively,yinthelastdecade.,22,ReplacementCost,Depreciation,Past,Today,Constructioncosts,Laborcosts,FF&E,Constructioncosts,Laborcosts,FF&E,Aftertakingallthisintoaccountwestillhavetodiscountthe,resultbackintimetoreflectthatthehotelwearevaluing,isnotbrandnew(depreciation),23,ReplacementCost,Depreciation,Ifvaluationmethodologyisthis,howwouldyouvaluethese?,DunboyCastleResort,Cork(Ireland),CiraganPalaceKempinski,Istanbul(Turkey),LakePalaceHotel,Udaipur(India),24,ReplacementCost,limitations,Derivingahotelsvaluebycalculatingthecostofreplacingitand,deductinganallowanceforcumulativedepreciation,USES,Easytobeunderstood,Usefulfornewproperties,LIMITATIONS,Notalwayspossible,especiallyforhistoricalhotels,Doesnotreflectinvestorrationale,Depreciationcanbephysical,functionaland/orexternal,25,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Expert,ReplacementCost,SalesComparables,onaperroombasis:,apotentialstandard,buyer,featuringastandardlevelofinformation,willpurchasea,propertyatamaximumpriceequivalenttothesalepriceofa,similarpropertywiththesamelevelofutility,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows,26,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Expert,SalesComparables,onaperroombasis:,apotentialstandard,buyer,featuringastandardlevelofinformation,willpurchasea,propertyatamaximumpriceequivalenttothesalepriceofa,similarpropertywiththesamelevelofutility.,Example,Wearewillingto,purchasetheHotel,RitzinParis,Category:5starluxury,161rooms,27,118rooms,114,000,000Euro,SaleComparables,Weinvestigatethemarkettofindwhichhotelhasbeensoldin,Priceperroom=627,000,2010andatwhichprice:,HotelLutetia,5star,231rooms,145,000,000Euro,RenaissanceArcdeTriomphe,5star,Priceperroom=966,000,HoteldeCrillon,5starluxury,147rooms,Priceperroom=1,700,000,250,000,000Euro,28,SaleComparables,Consideringtheabove,howmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?,HotelLutetia,627,000,RenaissanceArcdeTriomphe,966,000,HoteldeCrillon,1,700,000,29,SaleComparables,Consideringtheabove,howmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?,HoteldeCrillon,1,700,000,Similarlocation,Similarcategoryandservice,Similarnumberofrooms,Roompricing(12,th,September):,Crillon:680Euro,Ritz:850Euro(25%higher),Weshouldexpecttopaymore/lessthanHoteldeCrillon?,+25%=2,125,000perroom161rooms=342,125,000,Pricerange:1,700,000,2,125,000,30,SalesComparable,limitations,USES,Providesarangeofvalues,Comparehotelscurrentlyforsaletoexistingpropertiesthathave,beenalreadysoldonthemarket(themarkethasbeentestedfor,theseslevelsofprices),Givesanindicationofrealbuyersmotivation(marketdrivenprice),LIMITATIONS,Nohotelistrulycomparable,Valueisdependentonbuyermotivation(whatifspecial,motivation?),Economicenvironmentmaydiffer(location,time),Reliablehotelsalesdatanotalwaysavailable,31,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Expert,ReplacementCost,SalesComparables,onaperroombasis,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows:,NetPresentValueof,futurecashflowsgeneratedbytheproperty,32,Hotelvaluationtechniques,Expert,ReplacementCost,SalesComparables,onaperroombasis,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows:,NetPresentValueof,futurecashflows,generatedbytheproperty,Conversionoftheanticipatedbenefitsofpropertyownership,(annualincome)intoanestimateofpresentvalue,33,“,Hotelvaluationtechniques,“,Property,with,trading,potential,such,as,hotels,fuel,stations,restaurants,or,the,like,the,Market,Value,of,which,may,include,assets,other,than,land,and,buildings,alone.,These,properties,are,commonly,sold,in,the,market,as,operating,assets,and,with,regard,to,their,trading,potential.,Also,called,property,with,trading,potential.,IVSC,GN,12,para,3.5,34,Hotelvaluationtechniques,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows:,NetPresentValueof,futurecashflowsgeneratedbytheproperty,Thiscanbedonethroughthebasicmethodsexplained:,SingleCapRate,Multipliers,IncomeCapitalization,DCFApproach,35,Hotelvaluationtechniques,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows:,NetPresentValueof,futurecashflowsgeneratedbytheproperty.,Thiscanbedonethroughtheeasymethodsexplained:,SingleCapRate:,derivingahotelsvaluebyapplyinga,capitalizationratetothehotelsnetincome,Multipliers,IncomeCapitalization,DCFApproach,36,SingleCapRate,example,HotelValue:16,400,000,Valueperroom:164,000,37,SingleCapRate,limitations,USES,Leadtoquickresults,Usedcommonlyandwidelyunderstood,LIMITATIONS,Itisbasedonone(last)incomeyearonly,Donotreflectpropensityofincometoriseorfall,Notalwaysreliable(smallchangesinthecaprateproducelarge,effectonvalue),38,Hotelvaluationtechniques,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows:,NetPresentValueof,futurecashflowsgeneratedbytheproperty,Thiscanbedonethroughtheeasymethodsexplained:,SingleCapRate,Multipliers:,derivingahotelsvaluebyapplyingacapitalization,ratetoanestimateofthehotels,sstabilizednetincome,IncomeCapitalization,DCFApproach,39,Multiplier,example,40,Multiplier,limitations,USES,Morecomprehensiveapproach(takeintoaccountmanagement,factors),Reflectsthepossibilityofincometoriseorfall,Usedmoreandmoreoftenandunderstoodmoreandmore,widely,LIMITATIONS,Thevaluerneedsmoredetailsregardinghoteloperationand,management,Thevaluerneedsabetterunderstatingofthemarketandthe,tradingpotentialoftheassetinthatmarket,41,Hotelvaluationtechniques,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows:,NetPresentValueof,futurecashflowsgeneratedbytheproperty,SingleCapRate,Multipliers,IncomeCapitalization,DCFApproach:,derivingahotelsvalue,byapplyinganappropriatediscountratetoaprojectionofthe,hotelsestimatedfuturecashflow,42,IncomeCapitalization,DCFApproach,Weassumeaholdingperiodof10years,Ineachyearweestimatethetradingpotentialoftheproperty,Ineachyearweestimatetheoperationalresultoftheproperty,Weassumeasaleattheendofyear10(TerminalAssetValue),$,EBITDAs,+,TerminalAsset,Value,time,43,IncomeCapitalization,DCFApproach,$,EBITDAs,TerminalAsset,Value,Years,0,10,44,IncomeCapitalization,DCFApproach,$,EBITDAs,TerminalAsset,Value,Years,0,10,45,IncomeCapitalization,DCFApproach,$,EBITDAs,TerminalAsset,Value,Years,0,10,46,IncomeCapitalization,DCFApproach,$,TerminalAsset,Value,EBITDAs,10,Years,0,DiscountingFactor,47,IncomeCapitalization,DiscountFactor,DISCOUNTFACTOR,Reflectthetimevalueofmoney,Reflecttheriskoftheinvestment,WACC=,WeightedAverageCostofCapital,48,IncomeCapitalization,Example,Year,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,WACC,Value,say,12,55%,16.561.804,16.600.000,WACCCalculation,WACC,12,55%,49,IncomeCapitalization,limitations,USES,Providesabetteroverviewofthepropertystradingpotential,Reflectsavaluebasedonfutureandnotonpresentorpast,Takeintoaccountoperationsandmanagementcharacteristics,(possibilityto)Takeintoaccountmarketwidechanges(Olympic,Games,NewConferenceCentres,etc),LIMITATIONS,Thevaluerneedstounderstandindepththemarketandthetrading,potentialoftheassetinthatmarket,Thevaluerneedstounderstandindepththehotelspecificoperation,andmanagement,Thevaluerneedstobeexperiencedofthehospitalitysectorinorder,toestimateallcashflowsthatarethebasisofthevaluation,50,Valuationdatawishlist,Whatisimportanttohave:,Historicaldataforthelocalmarket,Historicaldataoftheproperty(Profit&LossStatements),Whatisimportanttoknow:,understandingofthetradingpotentialofthemarket(demand,versussupply,newsupply),Understatingoftradingpotentialoftheproperty(market,penetrationaprojectionsofmarketpenetration),Understandingoftheoperationalsideinordertoproduce,representativecashflows,Understandingofthefinancialaspects(currentLTV,equityyield,etc)andoftheriskconnectedtothisinvestment,51,Comparisonwithstockmarket,Twoapproachestovaluation:,IntrinsicValue,:isdeterminedbythecashflowsyouexpect,that,assettogenerateoveritslifeandhowuncertainyoufeelaboutthese,cashflows.Assetswithhighandstablecashflowsshouldworthmore,thanassetswithlowandvolatilecashflows.,RelativeValue,:inrelativevaluationsassetsarevaluedbylooking,athowthemarketpricessimilarassets.Thus,determiningwhat,topay,forahouse,youwouldlookatwhatsimilarhousesinthe,neighbourhoodsoldfor.,“TheLittleBookofValuation”,AswathDamodaran,ProfessorofFinanceattheSternSchoolofBusinessatNewYorkUniversity,52,Comparisonwithstockmarket,In,intrinsicvaluations,thereare4piecesofinformationthatdeterminevalue:,1.,2.,3,3.,4.,Cashflowsformexistingassets;,Expectedgrowthinthesecashflows;,Discountrate;,Thelengthoftime,beforethebusinessbecomesmature.,“TheLittleBookofValuation”,AswathDamodaran,ProfessorofFinanceattheSternSchoolofBusinessatNewYorkUniversity,53,Havewereachedourobjectives?,Whydoweneedhotelvaluations?,Whyhotelvaluationsaredifferent?,Whatis“Value”,Valuationtechniques:,ReplacementCost,SalesComparables,onaperroombasis,NetPresentValueoffuturecashflows,EBITDAmultiplier,Yield,10,000Rule,Usesandlimitationsforeachvaluationtechnique,Whatisimportanttohavetoproducegoodvaluations?,54,Whatelsewouldbepartofthecourse?,WhicharetheKPIsforhotelvaluation?,Howisitpossibletovaluehotelunderdevelopment?,Howisitpossibletovaluehotelsthatarenotyetbuilt?,Howisitpossibletovaluehotelsthatareloosingmoney?,Howthevalueofhotelschangesthroughoutlifecycle?,EffectofaBrand:howdoesthevaluechangeifthehotelbecomes,branded?,WhatisthedifferentbetweenMarketValueandLiquidation,Value?,WhataretherequirementsofRICSforvaluations?,Whobuyswhat?Whichistheperfectbuyerforwhichhotel?,HowcanwevalueaResort?(Resortbusinessmodels),55,
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