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单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Topic 1INTRODUCTION,+,PROJECT SELECTION,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,I. Introduction,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,1. Evolution of an Idea,People have been planning and managing Projects since the dawn of time. Whenever and wherever civilizations took root, there were projects to manage: building to erect, roads to pave, laws to write. Without the advanced tools, techniques and methodologies we have today, people created project timelines, located materials and resources and weighed the risk involved,.,Examples: great wall ,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Over time, people realized that the techniques for cost control,timeline development, resource procurement and risk management were applicable to a wide range of projects,whether erecting bridges, rotating crops or deciding how to govern themselves. These early idea were the precursors to a set of management techniques we now know as “modern project management”.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Modern organizations are finding that project management provides many advantages-not the least of which is improving the bottom line! Savvy customers demand more and better products and faster services. Time-to-market pressures forces greater efficiency. Professional project management has found its place in todays competitive, global business arena.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,The past several decades have been marked by a rapid growth in the use of project management as a means by which Org. achieve their objectives.,PM has emerged because the characteristics of our late 20th society demand the development of,new methods of management,.,The exponential expansion of human knowledge;,The growing demand for broad range of complex,sophisticated,customized goods and services;,The evolution of worldwide competitive markets.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,All 3 forces combine to mandate the use of TEAM to solve problems that used to be solvable by individuals.,Knowledge expansion-TEAM: call for high level of coordination and cooperation between groups of people.,Intensive Competition-make their complex,customized outputs available as quickly as possible. “Time-to-market” is critical.,The projects undertake are large and getting larger. “The more we can do, the more we try to do”.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Project fails too often,Systems projects,: 30-45%of system projects fail prior to completion. Over half of all system projects overrun their budgets and schedules by up 200% or more. Combined costs of failure and overruns total in the hundreds of billions of dollars.,Computerworlds survey,: failed system projects cost more than $100 billion per year; one of two projects overrun its budget by 180% or more; A survey of what was missing in PM process indicated:,project office-42%; integrated methods-41%; training and monitoring-38%; policies and procedures-35%; implementation plans-23%; executive support-22%,Example of failed projectChina, Rest of the world,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,2. What is a Project?,Org. Perform work. Work generally involves either,operations,or,projects,.,Operation: ongoing and repetitive,Project: temporary and unique,project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to achieve a particular aim. Every project has a definite beginning and a definite end.,Examples: running a political campaign,.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,In the broadest sense, a project is a specific, finite task to be accomplished. Whether large- or small-scale or whether long- or short-run is not particularly relevant. What relevant is that the project be seen as a unit.,Attributes: Purpose, Life cycle, Interdependencies, Uniqueness, Conflict,M&M,p.8-9,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Project stakeholders and conflict,Individuals or organizations who are actively involved in the project, or,whose interest may be positively or negatively affected as a result of project execution or successful project completion.,They include: project manager, customers, performing organization, sponsor, suppliers and contractors, team members and their families, government agency, lobbying organizations etc,the stakeholders often have very different objectives that may come into conflict. Examples: the owner of real estate development project, local governing body, environment group, nearby residents.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,The project life cycle,% of project completion:,Slow start-Quick momentum-Slow finish(Fig.1-2, p.13),100,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Project life cycle(Fig.1-3):,Conception,Selection,Planning, scheduling, monitoring, control,Evaluation and termination,Examples,of Project life cycle: see PMBOK 1996, p. 13-16, Fig,2-2, 2-3, 2-4, 2-5.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Level of effort,peak effort level,conception selection planning-control evaluation and termination,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Uncertainty of the project cost at specific points in time,cost,t time,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,3 What is project management,Project management is the application of knowledge,skills, tools and techniques to a broad range of activities in order to meet or exceed stakeholder needs and expectations from a project. This will involve,balancing,competing demands,among,:,Scope, time, cost, and quality;,Stakeholders with differing needs and expectations;,Identified requirements and unidentified requirements.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Projects General Objectives: performance, cost and time,Fig.1-1,p.3: Performance, cost, time, and project targetsrequired performance-budget limit-due date,trade-offs,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,PERFORMANCE,TARGET,COST,TIME(SCHEDULE),Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Project management focuses critical attention on the interdependent nature of complex tasks-an action, or failure to take action, in one area will usually affect other areas.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,The project management knowledge areas,Project integration management:,project plan development, project plan execution, overall change control,Project scope management:,initiation, scope planning, scope definition, scope verification, scope change control,Project time management:,activity definition, activity sequencing, activity duration estimating, schedule development, schedule control,Project cost management:,resources planning, cost estimating, cost budgeting, cost control,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Project quality management:,Quality planning, quality assurance, quality control,Project human resource management:,organizational planning, staff acquisition, team development,Project communication management:,communication planning, information distribution, performance reporting, administrative closure,Project risk management:,risk identification, risk quantification, risk response development, risk response control,Project Procurement management:,procurement planning, solicitation planning, solicitation, source selection, contract administration, contract close-out.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,The project manager is expected to integrate all aspects of the project,ensure that the proper knowledge and resources are available when and where needed, and above all, ensure that the expected results are produced in a timely, cost-effective manner.-Project manager is a super-manager.PMI: founded at 1969PMBOK: 1987, 1996, 2000,http:/www.pmi.org,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Project management helps organizations meet their customers need by standardizing routine tasks and reducing the number of tasks that could potentially be forgotten. Project management ensures that available resources are used in most effective and efficient manner. Project management provides senior executives insight into “what is happening” and “where things are going” within their organization.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Many org. Around the world such as NASA, IBM, AT&T utilize PM to enable innovative process, to plan,to organize, and control strategic initiative, to monitor enterprise performance,analyze significant deviations and forecast their impact on the organization and projects.,The application of PM principles enables the senior executive to:,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Establish measures of success,Quantify value commensurate with coat,Incorporate quality principles,Ensure fast time-to-market,Enable customer focus and alignment,Optimize the use of organizational resources,Put strategic plan into practice,READINGS.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,II. Project Selection,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Project Selection,Project selection is the process of evaluating individual project or groups of projects, and then choosing to implement some set of them so that the,objectives,of the,parent Org.,will be achieved.,“Determining the right projects to pursue with the right people”,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Main points,Types of project selection models,Limitation, strengths, and weaknesses of project selection models,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,1 Criteria for project selection models,Realism,Capability,Flexibility,Ease to use,Cost,Easy to computerization,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,2 The nature of project selecting models,Model do not make the decisions, people do,All models,however sophisticated, are only partial representations of the reality they are meant to reflect.,Meet the firms objectives:,financial goals/non-financial goals,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,A list of factors that contribute org.s objectives(goals)(M&M: PP.44-46):,Production factors,18,Marketing factors,10,Financial factors,9,Personnel factors,10,Administrative and miscellaneous factors,14,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Production factors,time until ready to install,length of disruption during installation/ degree of disruption during installation,time until operating as desired-learning curve,efforts on waste and rejects,energy requirement,facility and other equipment requirement,safety of process,other application of technology,consistency with current technological know-how,change in cost to produce a unit output /change in time to produce a unit output,change in raw materials/availability of raw materials,required development time and cost,impact on current suppliers,change in quality of output,change in quality control procedures,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Marketing factors,size of potential market for output,probable market share of output,time until market share is acquired,impact on current product line,ability to control quality,consumer acceptance,impact on consumer safety,estimated life of output,shape of life cycle curve,spin-off project possibilities,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Financial factors,profitability, net present value of the investment,impact on cash flow,payout period,cash requirement,time until break-even,size of investment required,impact on seasonal and cyclical fluctuations,cost of getting system up to speed,level of financial risk,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Personal factors,training requirement,labor skill requirement,availability of required labor skills,level of resistance from current workforce,other worker reactions,change in size of labor force,change in sex, age, or racial distribution of labor force,inter- and intra-group communication reqirement,support labor requirement,impact on working conditions,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Administrative and miscellaneous factors,meet government safety standards,meet government environment standards,impact on information system,impact on computer usage,need for consulting help, inside and outside,reaction of stockholders and security markets,patent and trade secret protection,impact on image with customers, suppliers, and competitors,cost of maintaining skill in new technology,vulnerability to single supplier,degree to which we understand new technology,elegance of new process,degree to which new process differs from current process,managerial capacity to direct and control new process,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,3 Type of project selection models,Non-numeric models: the sacred cow; the operating necessity; the competitive necessity; the product line extension; comparative benefit model,Numeric models: Profit/profitability-single goal; Scoring-multi-goals;,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Comparative benefit model,An Org. has many projects to consider, ORDERING the projects,Its not a formal model, is widely adopted for selection decisions on all sorts of projects. PEER REVIEW,techniques: Q-Sort, figure 2-1,p.49,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,High,level,Low,level,Medium,level,Medium,level,Original,deck,Low,level,High,level,Very,high,high,Very,low,low,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,For each participant in the exercise, assemble a deck of cards, with the name and description of one project on each card.,Instruct each participant to divide the deck into 2 piles,one representing a high priority, the other a low priority level,Instruct each participant to select card from each pile to form a third pile representing the medium-priority level.,Instruct each participant to select cards from the high-level pile to yield another pile representing the very high level of priority; select cards from low level pile representing the very low level of priority.,Finally, instruct each participant to survey the selections and shift any cards that seem out of the place until the classification are satisfactory.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Profit/profitability model,Payback period,Average rate of return,Internal rate of return,Discount cash flow:,Strategy behind the model.,Mistakes.,Profitability index,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,4 Discounted Cash Flow,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Strategy behind the DFC,Popular mistakes: examples, Production capacity? Market capacity?,Strategy,Product market: compete- monopolise -innovation,Capital market: opportunity cost,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,5 Other profitability models,Pacificos method,r= probability of research success,d=probability of development success, given research success,p=probability of process success, given the development success,c=probability of commercial success,given the process success,C: total cost of R&D effort for project,S: estimated average annual sales volume in units of product,P: estimated average profit per unit,L: estimated life of the product extension in years,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Comments on profit-profitability models,see M&M P.53-54,Advantages,simple to use and understand,accounting data,model output is in terms familiar to business decision maker,allow “absolute ” go/no-go decisions,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Disadvantages,ignore all non-money factors,some of them do not include discounting,sensitive to errors in the input data for the early years of the project.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,6 Scoring models,Multiple criteria,to evaluate the project,Un-weighted 0-1 factor model, Fig.2-2, M&M p.56,Un-weighted factor scoring model,Weighted factor scoring model,Constrained weighted factor scoring model,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Weighted factor scoring model,j=1,2,.n,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Example: PP.59-61, Getting Wheels,Table A. Criteria and weights for Car purchasing,Table B. Car selection criteria, measures and data sources,Figure A. Performance measures and the equivalent scores for selection of a Car,Figure B. Scores for alternative cars on selection criteria,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Constrained weighted factor scoring model,where =0 or 1,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,These constraints represent project characteristics that must be present or absent in order for the project to be acceptable.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,Comments on scoring model,advantages:,allow multiple criteria;structurally simple and,easy to understand; direct reflection of managerial policy; easily altered to accommodate changes in the environment or managerial policy; weighted scoring models allow for the fact that some criteria are more important than others; allow easy sensitive analysis. The trade-off between the several criteria are readily observable.,disadvantages:,relative measure; linear and elements be assumed to be independent; small weights element has little impact on final;,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,7 Project Proposal,Project proposal is the set of documents submitted for evaluation:,Executive Summary+Cover Letter,The nature of the technical problem and how it is to be approached,The plan for implementing the project once it has been accepted,The plan for logistic support and administration of the project,A description of the group proposing to do the work,plus its past experience in similar work.,Nov., 2001,Wanjun Jiang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University,
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