Travel Demand Forecasting Model for DMATS Area

ECIAA Regional Response to Local needsTravelDemandForecastingModelforDMATSAreaChandraRavadaTopicsModelingProcessDataandInputsTripGenerationTripDistributionTrafficAssignmentCalibration&ValidationProcessPostProcessCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.TopicsModelingProcessDataandInputsTripGenerationTripDistributionTrafficAssignmentCalibration&ValidationProcessPostProcessCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.ModelingProcessCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.ZonalLandUseData-Residential-EmploymentTripGeneration(Productions)TripGeneration(Attractions)BalancePsandAsTripPsandAsbyTripPurposeTripDistributionZonetoZonePersonTripsP/AtoO/DTransformationExternaltoExternalTripsInternaltoExternalExternaltoInternalTripsTrafficAssignmentShortestPathKFactorsCheckingSocioeconomicDatainTAZNetworkConnectionNetworkAlignmentwithStreetsCentroidLocationCheckingDifferenceBetweenPsandAsCheckingTripLengthsInterZonalTripsCheckingVMTbyFFCVolumeDeviationbyFFCV/CratioScreenLinesCalibrationAndValidationZonalLandUseData-Residential-EmploymentTripGeneration(Productions)TripGeneration(Attractions)BalancePsandAsTripPsandAsbyTripPurposeTripDistributionZonetoZonePersonTripsP/AtoO/DTransformationExternaltoExternalTripsInternaltoExternalExternaltoInternalTripsTrafficAssignmentShortestPathFrictionFactorsCheckingSocioeconomicDatainTAZNetworkConnectionNetworkAlignmentwithStreetsCentroidLocationCheckingDifferencebetweenPsandAsCheckingTripLengthsInterZonalTripsCheckingVMTbyFFCVolumeDeviationbyFFCV/CratioScreenLinesCalibrationAndValidationPhaseIIIDevelopmentofFutureyearForecastPhaseIITravelDemandModelCalibrationandValidationPhaseITravelDemandModelDevelopmentPhaseIVExisting+CommittedRoadWayNetworkAgencyReviewAgencyReviewAgencyReviewAgencyReviewThreeStepProcessIII.TrafficAssignmentII.TripDistributionI.TripGenerationDataGatheringGatheringSocioeconomicDataSource:Census2000CTPPIowa,Illinois&WisconsinWorkforceDevelopmentsCityofDubuque,EastDubuque,AsburyandPeostaPopulation,Employment,andHouseholdsfromDatagatheringareinputs.CreationofTripsbasedoncurrentlanduse(households/jobs)etc.Tripsbasedonpurpose(HBW,HBO,NHB&CV)aretheoutputs.MethodUsed:CrossClassificationProcessbasedonvehicleoccupancybyhouseholdsize.Productionsandattractionsfromtripgenerationareinputs.Triptablesareoutput(matrices).Eachcellcontainsthe#oftripsbetweenzones.MethodusedisGravityModel.Resultisvehicleflowsforagivenyear.MethodusedisStochasticEquilibriumMethod.CalibrationFutureProjectionMaintenanceTopicsModelingProcessDataandInputsTripGenerationTripDistributionTrafficAssignmentCalibration&ValidationProcessPostProcessCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.AttributestoTAZLayerCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.NumberofHouseholdsNon-retailEmploymentRetailEmploymentServiceEmploymentTotalPopulationProcedureforTAZlayerHouseholds&PopulationCensus2000(block)PlanningagenciesdiddoublecheckthefinaldataAttributesSourcesProceduresChecklistCTPP(TAZ)DMATS2001ModelThedatafromallthreesourcesaretakenintoConsiderationandtheFinaldataisattributedtoTAZlayerDMATStechboardDidreviewandapproveTheproceduresadoptedIowaworkforceDevelopment(IWD)CTPP(TAZ)ED&PlanningThedatafromIWDisGeocodedandtheEmploymentdataisdividedbyusingSICS&NAICScodesintoDifferenttypeofEmploymentandcomparedtoOtherinformationEmploymentEd&PlanningagenciesdiddoublecheckthefinaldataDMATStechboardDidreviewandapproveTheproceduresadoptedCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.AttributestoNetworkLayerCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.LinkTypeDirectionNumberofLanesCapacityFFCoftheRoadwayAverageAnnualDailyTrafficSpeedLimitProcedureforNetworklayerLinkTypeDirectionsNumberofLanesFFCIA/IL/WIDOTRoadfilesEngineeringagenciesdiddoublecheckthefinaldataAttributesSourcesProceduresChecklistCityofDubuqueDubuqueCountyTheDOTfilesareusedtoCreatenetworkandcityofDubuqueandDubuquecountyfilesareusedtoCheckthedataDMATStechboardDidreviewandapproveTheproceduresadoptedAreaTypeSpeedLimitCapacityAADTCity&CountyLanduseEngineeringagenciesdiddoublecheckthefinaldataDOT,CityandCountyHCM2000ThepostedspeedsaretakenfromDOTfilesandcomparedtoCity&county.ThelandusedataiscodedontothenetworkandthecapacitiesarebasedonLanduseandFFCDMATStechboardDidreviewandapproveTheproceduresadoptedTheNetworklinksandcentroidconnectorlocationsareadjustedbasedonaerialphotography.Copyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.2030SocioeconomicdataprojectionsConsistentwithHistoricTrendsPopulationProjectionCensus2000Employment&HousingProjectionLinearProjectionConsistentwithHistoricTrendsandpresentgrowthConsistentwithPopulationProjectionLinearProjection2030SocioeconomicdataprojectionsCityofDubuqueCityofEastDubuqueCityofAsburyCityofPeostaDubuqueCountyJoDaviessCountyGrantCountyCensus2000BasedonExistingLandUsePlanBasedonExistingAnnexationPlanBasedonHistoricalTrendsandExistingGrowthCheckingwithECIAprojections2030SocioeconomicdataprojectionsCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.DMATSareaModelPercentageChangeinSocioeconomicDatafrom2000to2031Year20002030%ChangePopulation77,018105,56437.06%Households29,91042,92743.52%Employment46,74562,19133.04%Source:ECIATopicsModelingProcessDataandInputsTripGenerationTripDistributionTrafficAssignmentCalibration&ValidationProcessPostProcessCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.TripGenerationCross-ClassificationRatesforProductionsAutosOwnedPurposeHouseholdSize123+HomeBasedWork10.640.780.46HomeBasedWork20.741.531.9HomeBasedWork3+1.11.932.29HomeBasedOther11.972.491.84HomeBasedOther22.853.073.12HomeBasedOther3+4.514.45.54Source:ECIA,2001NHTS,DesMoniesMPOAddonSurveyTripGenerationCross-ClassificationRatesforAttractionsPurposeVariableRateHome-BasedWorkTotalEmployment0.83Home-BasedOtherDwellingUnits0RetailEmployment2.33OtherEmployment1.63SchoolEnrollment0.8Population0CommercialVehiclesDwellingUnits0.357RetailEmployment0.263OtherEmployment0.034Internal-ExternalDwellingUnits0.06TotalEmployment0.259I-ESum1912Source:ECIA,2001NHTS,DesMoniesMPOAddonSurveyTripGenerationCross-ClassificationRatesforNon-HomeBasedWork(NHB)CrossClassificationRatesAutosOwnedHouseholdSize123+11.571.810.5421.832.141.833+5.962.473.01LinearRegressionDataRateColumnPopulation0.322TotalEmployment0.71Non-Homebased12.522.651.88Non-Homebased23.13.072.78Non-Homebased3+4.973.243.97Source:ECIA,2001NHTS,DesMoniesMPOAddonSurveyTripGenerations(ExternalStations)TheNCHRP Report No.365procedureswereformattedtoanExcelspreadsheettocalculatethepercentageofthroughtripsfortheDubuqueMetropolitanAreaTransCADmodel.PercentageofExternal-Internal&Internal-ExternalTripsFormulaAttractionsProductionsHBW15%HBW1%HBO27%HBO23%NHB8%NHB17%Source:NCHRP365TopicsModelingProcessDataandInputsTripGenerationTripDistributionTrafficAssignmentCalibration&ValidationProcessPostProcessCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.TripDistributionStandardGammafunctionwithfrictionfactorsa=1,b=0.3&c=0.01.TrafficAssignmentStochasticUserEquilibrium(SUE)hasbeenusedtoassigntraffic.SUEisageneralizedformofUserEquilibrium(UE)thatassumestravelersdonothaveperfectinformationconcerningnetworkattributesand/ortheyperceivecostsindifferentways.SUEpermitsuseoflessattractiveaswellasthemostattractiveroutes.Lessattractiverouteswillhavelowerutilization,butwillnothavezeroflowastheydoinUE.Dubuquebeingadifficultterraintotraveldohavesomeroutesthatarenotattractivetotravelbutdohavetrafficonthem.StafffeltcomfortableinusingSUEwhencomparedtoUE,AllornothingandSTOCHmethodstoportraittravelpatternswithintheMPOarea.Iterations:20,Alpha:0.15&Beta:4.00TopicsModelingProcessDataandInputsTripGenerationTripDistributionTrafficAssignmentCalibration&ValidationProcessPostProcessCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.Calibration&ValidationCalibration:Calibrationinthetraditionalfour-stepmodelingprocesswasaccomplishedbymodifyingmodelparametersuntilthemodelsreplicatedthetravelpatternsexhibitedbytheO-DSurvey.Validation:Validationconsistedofrunningthecalibratedmodelswithcurrentsocioeconomicdataandcomparingthesimulatedlinkvolumeswithgroundcounts.Copyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.Calibration&ValidationProcesslinksconnectivitySummaryofCalibrationapproachCentriodlocationandcentroidconnectorsspeedCapacityDirectionSocioeconomicDataMostofthetimethelinksmightnotbesnappedtogether.CheckforspeedMakesurethespeedisrealistic.Thecapacitiesattheintersectionmightchangeasnumberoflaneschange.Capacitiesmightbecodedwrong.Mostofthetimethecentroidconnectorsmightnotbeloadingrightontothenetwork.Lookfordirectionflow123456Socioeconomicdatamightbewrong.Theymightbesomespecialgenerators.TripGenerationTrafficAssignmentTripsperHouseholdbyPurposeCalibration&ValidationTripsperhouseholdbyRegionCalibration&ValidationProcessComparisonofProduction&AttractionCalibration&Validation(TripGeneration)AverageMotorizedPersonTripsperHouseholdbyRegionRegionSurveyYearPopulationVehicleTrips/HHDubuque2005Model77,0188.08HBW2005Model770181.50HBO2005Model77,0184.00Reno,NV1987254,0008.58Vancouver,WA1985259,0005.83Charlotte,NC1985511,4339.29AverageMotorizedPersonTripsperHouseholdbyPurposePurposeDubuqueHoustonDallas/Ft.WorthDenverSanFranciscoAtlantaDelawareValley2000Model1985Models1984TrvlSur1985TrvlSur1985TrvlSur1980TrvlSur1986TrvlSurHBW1.501.712.291.961.891.952.27HBO4.004.804.323.404.494.454.19NHB2.582.962.071.972.351.871.64Total8.089.478.687.338.738.278.10ComparisonofProductionandAttractionsBeforeBalancingPurposeProductionsAttractionsRatioFHWAHBW42,11740,6683.44%+/-10%HBO102,893101,892 0.97%+/-10%NHB69,13469,1340.00%+/-10%CV13,22013,2200.00%+/-10%Total227,364224,9141.08%+/-10%TheAveragepersontripsperHouseholdforDMATSareaare8.08trips/HH.TherecommendedrangeforratiobetweenProductionsandAttractionsbeforebalancingis+/-10%.TripGenerationTripDistributionTripsperHouseholdbyPurposeFrictionFactorsCalibration&ValidationTripsperhouseholdbyRegionCalibration&ValidationProcessComparisonofProduction&AttractionKFactorsTripLength&IntrazonalTripsCalibration&Validation(TripDistribution)Calibration&Validation(TripProductions)TherecommendedrangeforAveragetriplengthforsmallurbanareasis1015Minutes.AverageTripLengthPurposeTime(Minutes)StandardsFHWAHBW11.7111-15HBO11.149.5-13NHB10.489.512.5CV9.37N/AQuickSum10.87N/AIntrazonalTripPercentagesbyPurposePurpose%ofInternalStandardsTripsFHWAHBW1.53%5.00%HBO1.64%5.00%NHB2.50%5.00%CV2.63%5.00%Total1.93%5.00%Therecommendedrangefor%ofinternaltripsis0-5%.TripLengthDistributionTripGenerationTripDistributionTrafficAssignmentTripsperHouseholdbyPurposeFrictionFactorsCalibration&ValidationTripsperhouseholdbyRegionCalibration&ValidationProcessComparisonofProduction&AttractionKFactorsTripLength&IntrazonalTripsFederalFunctionClass(FFC)AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)VolumeDeviationbyAADTVehicleMilesTravelbyAADTVolumeDeviationbyFFCVehicleMilesTraveledbyFFCVolumeCapacityCurveRootMeanSquareError(RMSE)Calibration&Validation(TripAssignment)VolumeDeviationbyFunctionClassification2005FunctionClassNoofCountsCountLoaded%DiffernceFHWAPrincipalArterial981,047,0481,098,3194.89%7%MajorArterial114916,160919,981-0.42%10%MinorArterial55248,730279,871-12.52%15%Collector&Local1754,71046,61414.80%25%Total2842,273,8842,344,785-3.12%N/AVehicleMilesTraveled(VMT)DeviationbyFunctionClass2005FunctionClassNoofCountsVMTCountVMTLoaded%DifferencePrincipalArterial98272,642284,2624.26%MajorArterial112124,372126,650-1.83%MinorArterial5559,39761,118-2.90%Collector&Local1710,0478,74812.93%Total285465,222479,056-2.97%Calibration&Validation(TripAssignment)VolumeDeviationbyAverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)2000LinkAADTNoofCountsCountLoaded%DifferenceFHWA7000+1351,273,5001,279,6100.48%+/-10%5000-700048287,834312,627-8.61%+/-15%3000-500044171,830189,098-10.05%+/-25%1000-30003781,24089,590-10.28%+/-50%Total2852,273,8842,344,785-3.12%VehicleMilesTraveled(VMT)DeviationbyAADT2000VMTLinkAADTNoofCountsCountLoaded%Difference7000+135260,480263,5081.16%5000-70004852,67958,936-11.88%3000-50004447,96749,242-2.66%1000-30003721,76322,734-4.46%Total285465,222479,056-2.97%Calibration&Validation(TripAssignment)Calibration&Validation(TripAssignment)RootMeanSquareError(RMSE)byFunctionClassFunctionClass#ofCountsRMSE%FHWAPrincipalArterial9815.09%0-30%MajorArterial11422.22%0-30%MinorArterial5539.67%0-30%Collector&Local1742.47%0-30%Total28421.28%0-30%RootMeanSquareError(RMSE)byAADTFunctionClass#ofCountsRMSE%FHWA7000+14815.13%0-30%5000-70005030.86%0-30%3000-50004447.20%0-30%1000-30003757.33%0-30%Total28421.28%0-30%TripGenerationTripDistributionTrafficAssignmentScreenlineProcessTripsperHouseholdbyPurposeFrictionFactorsCalibration&ValidationTripsperhouseholdbyRegionPercentageofVolumeDeviationCalibration&ValidationProcessComparisonofProduction&AttractionKFactorsTripLength&IntrazonalTripsFederalFunctionClass(FFC)AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)VolumeDeviationbyAADTVehicleMilesTravelbyAADTVolumeDeviationbyFFCVehicleMilesTraveledbyFFCVolumeCapacityCurveRootMeanSquareError(RMSE)Calibration&Validation(Screenlines)AllScreenlinesarewithinthepercentagecurve.DeviationofScreenlineVolumeBaseYearAssignedPercentDeviationScreenlineVolumeVolume(Deviation/Count)Model/Count145,40045,6561.60%0.98228,51029,9905.19%1.05355,40048,30412.81%0.874100,300100,9180.62%1.01543,95042,1904.00%0.96644,50044,3120.42%1.00768,90063,0118.55%0.91854,10061,14313.02%1.13ScreenlineVehicleMilesTraveledBaseYearAssignedVMTModel/CountScreenlineVMTVMT122220214730.97210542112071.06318036174840.97418354162450.89533687345891.03619219188080.98716329141100.86819836.7228111.15TopicsModelingProcessDataandInputsTripGenerationTripDistributionTrafficAssignmentCalibration&ValidationProcessPostProcessCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.DatavalidityMethodologyforfutureprojectionsUpdatemodelwithapprovedtrafficstudyStaffcalculatestripsusingstandardsforthenewdevelopmentsandupdatemodelwithnewdevelopments.StaffmakesuretherawtrafficcountsareconvertedintoAADTbyIADOTstaff.Staffwillrecalibratethemodelbasingonthenewinformation.StaffdevelopstripsbasingonthelanduseandupdatethemodelStaffwillmakethenecessarycapacitychangesandadjusttraveltimebasingontheimprovementsmade.PostProcessCheckModelUpdatesProcessTrafficStudiesNewDevelopmentsTrafficCountsLanduseMapsImprovementsStaffwillberequestedbyPlanning&engineeringagenciestocheckTrafficStudiessubmittedbyconsultantsbyusingthemodelThelocalplanningagenciesandEDgroupsdoprovidestaffwithfuturedevelopmentsthatarehappeningintheareaStaffdotrafficcountsonregularbaseswithintheMPOareaStaffconductsspecialtrafficcountsforcorridorstudiesStaffwillbeprovidedwithnewlandusemapsbyplanningagenciesintheMPOarea.Staffareupdatedbyengineeringstaffwithnewroadimprovements(extraLane/trafficSignalcoordinationetc)inthearea.UsageofModelMediumUsageMediumUsageHigherUsageConsultancyFirmsModelStaffworkswithcityandCountystafftodoublecheckthetrafficstudydataandfutureprojections.StaffworkwithEDgroupstocheckfuturedevelopmentsandtheirimpact.Staffdoprovidefutureprojectionsinsocioeconomicdataforspecificzones.IA32NWArterialHillstreetCondominiumsSamsClubRequestdocomefromconsultancyfirmsfortrafficprojectionsforthecorridorStaffworkwithengineering,planning&EdagenciesintheareaandmakesurealldevelopmentistakingintoconsiderationsandwillcalibratethemodelbasedonthemostrecentAADTdata.Staffreleasethedatatotheconsultantandworkwithconsultantuponrequesttolookatthecorridorandmakesurebothpartiesareonsamepage.CorridorStudiesTrafficStudiesFutureProjectionsIA32SWArterialUS20corridorEastWestcorridorCity&countyEDGroupsCopyright2004ECIA.AllRightsReserved.Questions?