贝恩咨询分析方法-ProfitPools

Author:Dana PeckReviewer:Michael CollinsProfit PoolsDecember1998Copyright1998Bain&Company,Inc.1CHIProfit PoolsAgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways2CHIProfit PoolsProfitpoolsarethetotalprofitsearnedinanindustryatallpointsalongtheindustrysvaluechainPatternofprofitconcentrationinanindustryisverydifferentfromthepatternofrevenueconcentration(seeexample)Forexample,profitsandrevenuesintheautomotiveindustrycanbedividedamongmanyvaluechainactivities-vehiclemanufacturing,newandusedcarsales,gasolineretailing,insurance,after-salesserviceandparts,andleasefinancing-althoughcarmanufacturinganddealersaccountforalmost60%ofindustryrevenue-autoleasingandfinancingareby farthemostprofitablebusinessesWhat are Profit Pools?Profit pools answer the question:“Where and how is money being made?”Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert3CHIProfit PoolsWhat is Profit?Accountingprofit-representscompanysearningsasformallyreported-mostcommonlyusedasthebasicprofitmeasure-examplesincludenetincomeorearningspersharecalculationsReturnoninvestment-representscompanysearningsaftertakingintoaccountthecostofcapitalinvestedinthebusiness.Twocommonlyusedmeasuresinclude:-ROC,accountingbasedReturnonCapital(bookvalue)-ROIC,accountingbasedReturnonInvestedCapital(bookvalue)Cash-flowcontribution-companysearningsbeforetakingfixed-assetandcapitalcostsintoaccount(e.g.EBITDA)-representstheamountofcashleftfromasaleaftersubtractingthevariablecostsassociatedwiththatsale-usedasabasisfordecision-makinginmature,highfixedcostandcyclicalindustriesProfit can be defined in one of three ways:Be aware of differences in accounting standards when evaluating companies with profits spanning different industriesSource:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert4CHIProfit PoolsRevenue vs.Profit SplitTruckFinancePartsandServiceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyChassisManufacturingandSalesTruckFinancePartsandServiceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyChassisManufacturingandSalesRevenueSplitbyActivityProfitSplitbyActivity$3,865MM$600MM0%20%40%60%80%100%PercentofTotalSource:PBIRProfileoftheU.S.TruckBodyIndustry;R.L.PolkRegistrationDatabase;LiteratureSearch;TEMFinancials;PriorBainPLPanalysis(7/96);Bainestimates The pattern of profit concentration in the truck manufacturing industry is very different from the pattern of revenue concentration.Truck Manufacturing Business Example5CHIProfit PoolsWhy Use Profit Pools?OfferaviewoftheunderlyingindustrystructureHelpillustratetheeconomicandcompetitiveforcesdrivingtheindustrysprofitdistributionOfferadifferentperspectiveonanindustryIllustraterelationshipbetweenprofitandrevenuesHighlightspotentialwatchouts(chokepointsinthevaluechain)whichcaninfluencetheprofitflowinanindustryIllustrate the Current State of the IndustryProvide a Competitive Advantage to Your ClientHelp to Develop Innovative Strategies HelpcompaniesseewhattheirrivalsdontseeFosterthepotentialtodictatethetermsofcompetitionwithintheindustryKeepcompaniesabreastofchangesinrapidlychanging(turbulent)industries-alertpotentialshiftsinprofitdistributionalongthevaluechain-illustratepotentialchangeinprofitsourcesfromnewentrantsHelpguideimportantdecisionsaboutacompanysoperationandstrategyEncouragerethinkingolddecisionsandpursuingcounterintuitiveinitiativestocreateandcontrolprofitpoolsReducethepossibilityofblindspotsinacompanysstrategicvision-reducepotentialtooverlookattractiveprofitbuildingopportunities-lessonpotentialtobecometrappedinareasofweak/fadingprofitabilityExampleapplicationsCompanies that recognize the variability of profitability and can exploit the deepest pools will earn superior returns.Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert6CHIProfit PoolsHow Profit Pools Illustrate the State of the IndustryThevaryingconcentrationsofprofitalongthevaluechain(knownastheshapeoftheprofitpool)reflectthecompetitivedynamicsofabusiness-profitconcentrationsresultfromtheactionsandinteractionsofcompaniesandcustomers-profitpoolsforminareaswherebarrierstocompetitionexist-profitpoolsexistinareasthathavebeenoverlookedbycompetitorsEverymarkethasanunevendistributionofprofitbetweenproductcategories,customergroups,geographicregionsand/ordistributionchannelsProfitpoolsarenotstagnant-aspowershiftsamongtheplayersinanindustry(competitors,suppliers,andcustomers),thestructureoftheprofitpoolchangesThere are many different sources of profit in any businessProfit pools provide a means to evaluate the competitive dynamics of an industry.Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert7CHIProfit PoolsProfit Pool Watchouts(Computer Industry Example)Examples:Be aware of“choke points”-particular business activities that control the flow of profits throughout an industry.Impact:Control of a choke point can influence the distribution of profits among competitors and more distant value-chain participantsIntelsdominanceofmicroprocessorsEstablishmentofanindustrywidestandardthatallcompaniesmustnowobeyMicrosoftsdominanceofWindowsConsolidationofcontroloverthecustomerinterface*includesoperatingsystemandapplicationsoftwareSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.GilbertMicro-processorsOtherComponentsPersonalComputersSoftware*PeripheralsServices8CHIProfit PoolsMicro-processorsOtherComponentsPersonalComputersSoft-warePeripheralsServices0%10%20%30%40%OperatingMarginShareofIndustryRevenueProfit Pool Watchouts(Computer Industry Example Con.)*includesoperatingsystemandapplicationsoftwareSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.GilbertAnalyzingtheprofitpoolhasenabledDelltobeprofitableintheleastprofitablepersonalcomputerssegment(seeexample)Although choke points exist in the computer industry,it is still possible for companies to create and leverage new profit pools within this industry.PC Industry Profit Pool100%9CHIProfit Pools0%5%10%15%20%25%OperatingMarginThe automotive industry encompasses many value-chain activities.The most profitable areas of the car business are not the ones that generate the biggest revenues.AutomanufacturingNewcardealersUsedcardealersAutoloansLeasingGasolineAutoinsuranceServicerepairAftermarketpartsAutorentalShareofIndustryRevenue100%U.S.Auto Industry Example10CHIProfit PoolsKey Questions to Help Develop Innovative StrategiesWhyhaveprofitpoolsformedwheretheyhave?Aretheforcesthatcreatedthosepoolslikelytochange?Willnew,moreprofitablebusinessmodelsemerge?Howdosomeprofitsourcesexertinfluenceoverothersandshapecompetition?Howdowegainadisproportionateshareofindustryprofits?Building an understanding of profit pools puts strategic thinking on a firm footing and prompts the following questions:Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert11CHIProfit PoolsAgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways12CHIProfit PoolsApplications(1 of 2)AnalyzingprofitpoolsallowedU-Haultoidentifyalargeuntappedsourceofprofitinthelowmargintruckrentalbusiness-seizedthefirstmoveradvantageandenteredaccessorybusinessatalowcost-reducedprices(andprofits)incoretruckrentalbusinesstoattractcustomersforhighermarginaccessorybusinessInanticipationofapotentialreconfigurationoftheprofitpoolfrompharmacy-benefitmanagers(PBM),MerckandothersverticallyintegratedthevaluechainandacquiredPBMs-insulatedthemselvesfromnewentrantsandprotectedtheirexistingsourcesofprofits-gainedgreateraccesstopatientinformation-increasedthelikelihoodthatthepoolwouldevolveinabeneficialratherthandestructivewayCompanies can use their understanding of profit pools in different ways:Identify New Sources of ProfitChart Acquisition and Expansion StrategiesExamplesSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert13CHIProfit PoolsApplications(2 of 2)DellComputerCorp.utilizestheprofitpoolapproachtoevaluatewhichcustomerstopursueandwhichchannelstouse-directsalesapproachallowsDelltokeepaportionofdealersprofitsforitselfandtosharetherestwithcustomersthroughlowerprices-regularresegmentationofcustomerbaseenablesthemtoidentifythemostprofitablecustomersandreactquicklytonewsourcesofprofitAfterrecognizingthattheindustrysprofitpoolwasdrivenbythepremiumbeersegments,AnheuserBushrefocusedtheirstrategytoexpandtheirshareofthepremiumsegment-gaineddominanceofthepremiumsegmentthroughincreasedmarketingofpremiumbrandsandbymanagingthepricedifferentialsbetweenpremiumanddiscountbrands-verticalintegrationintocanproductionraisedcompetitivebarriersaroundthepoolbycuttingmanufacturinganddistributioncostDevelop Distribution StrategyGuide Pricing,Product and Operating DecisionsThe company that sees what others do not will be best prepared to capture a disproportionate share of industry profitsSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert14CHIProfit PoolsAgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways15CHIProfit PoolsMapping a Profit PoolMapping a profit pool involves four steps.Define the PoolDetermine the Size of the PoolEstimate the Distribution of ProfitsReconcile the EstimatesTasks:IdentifywhichvaluechainactivitiesinfluencetheindustrysabilitytogeneratecurrentandfutureprofitsDevelopabaselineestimateoftheprofitsgeneratedbyallprofitpoolactivitieswithinthevaluechainDeterminetheprofitsgeneratedbyeachactivitywithinthevaluechainComparetheresultsofstep2and3,andreconcilethenumbersListofvaluechainactivitiesinprofitpool(insequentialorder)Estimateoftotalprofitpools(maybearange)PointestimatesofprofitforeachvaluechainactivityFinalestimatesofactivityandtotalpoolprofitsOutput:Step 1:Step 2:Step 3:Step 4:Source:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert16CHIProfit PoolsGuidelines(Defining the Pool)Defining the pool involves identifying value chain activities relevant to the business.Takeabroadviewofthevaluechain-lookbeyondtraditionalindustrydefinitionsExaminetheindustryfrom3perspectives-client-competitors-customersTalktoindustryplayersandanalysistouncoverneworemergingbusinessmodelsDontdisaggregateactivitiesmorethannecessaryConsiderparallelsfromotherindustries-arethereactivitiesthatcouldsubstituteforactivitiesinthisindustry?The way you define your profit pool is unlikely to coincide with any traditional industry definitionSource:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert17CHIProfit PoolsGuidelines(Determining the Size of the Pool)Determining the size of the pool involves developing a rough,but accurate baseline estimate based on the available data.TaketheeasiestanalyticalroutesavailableFocusonthelargestcomponentsfirst-largecompanies8startwiththebiggestplayerswhoaccountforalargeportionoftheindustrysprofits8gaugetheprofitsofthesmallerplayersbyadjustingtheleadersmarginstoaccountforthesmallerplayerscompetitiveadvantagesordisadvantages8addtheprofitstogether-highvolumeproductsConsiderbuildingestimatesusingtwodifferentmethodologies(panylevelvs.productlevel)soyoucancompareanswerstoseeifyouareintheballparkrangeSource:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert18CHIProfit PoolsGuidelines(Estimating the Distribution of Profits)Estimating the profits for each value chain involves creative thinking.Gowherethedatais(e.g.products,customers,channels,companies,orregions,etc.)-useproxiesifrelevantdataisunavailablePrioritizefocus-lookatclienteconomics,thenlargepureplayers,largemixedplayers,thenasampleofsmallerplayers-usethe80/20rule-inmostcases20%ofthecompaniesconstitute80%oftherevenuesShiftbetweenaggregationanddisaggregationinanalysis-aggregations-useinindustrieswheremostoftheplayersfocusononevaluechainactivity“Pureplayers”-disaggregation-youwillneedtodisaggregatecompanysfinancialdataiftheindustrysplayersareverticallyintegrated“mixedplayers”Source:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert19CHIProfit PoolsGuidelines(Reconciling the Estimates)Developing final estimates of activity and total profits can be an iterative process.Comparetheestimateoftotalprofitpools(top-downapproach)withestimatescalculatedforeachvaluechainactivity(bottoms-upapproach)CheckassumptionsandcalculationsifthenumbersdontaddupCollectadditionaldataifnecessaryResolveinconsistenciesSource:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert20CHIProfit PoolsAgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways21CHIProfit PoolsTruck Manufacturing Business ExampleActivities:Performed By:ProvidepartsfortruckchassisandbodyPerformpreventativeandemergencyserviceontruckchassisandbodyBuildtruckbodytocustomerspecsPreparebodyforandmanageassemblyprocessSellbodytocustomerDeliverintegratedunittocustomerOfferfundsasloansfortruckpurchaseArrangeloanandleasetransactionsSellchassisto/takeorderfromcustomerManageconnectionofchassisandTEM*BuildtruckchassisaccordingtocustomerspecsCollectcomponentsfrommanufacturersChassismanufacturerChassisdealerIndependentgarageorpartsstoreTEMChassisdealerChassismanufacturerTEMChassisdealerChassismanufacturerTEMChassismanufacturerChassisManufacturingChassisSalesBodyManufacturing,SalesandAssemblyParts&ServiceRetailFinanceNotes:*TruckEquipmentManufacturersThe first step was to define the pool by identifying the value chain activities relevant to the business.Severe Service Value Chain(Defining the Pool)22CHIProfit PoolsOtherFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMack$500-700MM0%20%40%60%80%100%EstimatedPercentofTotalProfitPoolsSevere Service Vehicle Profit Pool(Determining the Size of the Pool)Source:BainanalysisEstimatedprofitsfromtop5companiesbasedon10KsandannualreportsPerformed80/20analysistodeterminetotalprofitpool-assumed20%ofthecompaniesconstituted80%oftheprofits-estimatedprofitsofremaining20smallercompaniesRealitycheckedestimateswithroughindustrycalculations-Estimatedtotalprofitpoolaround$500-$700MMbasedon:8$3.9Bindustryrevenues8assumedaveragegrossmarginsof13%-18%MethodologyTruck Manufacturing Business ExampleA rough estimate of the total profit pool was built using overall profit estimates from the top 5 competitors.23CHIProfit PoolsNote:OperatingMarginusedasthemeasureofprofitabilitySource:CompanyFinancials;AnalystsReports;CompanyInterviewsTotalIndustryMcNeilusHeilLeachKnapheideOmaha Vactor Ottawa Advance RestofIndustry7.1%12.0%9.0%9.0%8.6%8.2%6.6%5.8%3.0%3.9%0%3%5%8%10%13%OperatingMarginsforBodyCompaniesProfit estimates were generated for each activity based on the operating margins of the top industry players.Truck Manufacturing Business ExampleExample Activity:Body ManufacturingBody Company Margins(Determining the Distribution of Profits for an Activity within a Value Chain)24CHIProfit PoolsOtherFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMackTruckFinanceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyPartsandServiceChassisManufacturingandSalesTopDownBottomsUp$500-$700MM$600MM0%20%40%60%80%100%EstimatedPercentofTotalProfitPoolsSevere Service Vehicle Profit Pool(Reconciling the Estimates)Source:BainanalysisChassis+Parts&Services+BodyManufacturing+FinancetherangeapproximatedinthetopdownapproachFinalestimatesforeachvaluechainactivityiswithintherangeofouroriginaltotalprofitpoolestimateTruck Manufacturing Business ExampleTotal profit estimates from the top down approach were compared to those from the bottoms up approach.25CHIProfit PoolsOtherGeneralMotorsVolvoKenworthFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMackChassisDealersOtherOttawaAdvanceMixerVactorOmahaStahlLeachKnapheideMcNeilusHeilChassisDealersChassisManufacturersChassisDealersChassisManufacturingChassisSalesBodyManufacturing,SalesandAssemblyTruckFinancePartsService$305MM$35MM$60MM$55MM$85MM$60MMTotalEBIT=$600MM0%20%40%60%80%100%PercentofTotalContributioninEachActivityOnce the estimates were reconciled,the final profit map enabled the client to see which segments were the most profitable and which controlled the majority of profit pool.EstimatedMargin:12.3%1.4%7.1%24.6%11.2%Truck Manufacturing Business Example35.0%Source:PBIRProfileoftheU.S.TruckBodyIndustry;R.L.PolkRegistrationDatabase;LiteratureSearch;TEMFinancials;PriorBainPLPanalysis(7/96);BainestimatesSevere Service Vehicle Profit Map(1997)26CHIProfit PoolsDealerownershipwouldcreateaccesstohighmarginactivitiesChassismanufacturingandaftermarketpartsaremostprofitableactivitiesHighfragmentationandlowprofitabilitymakebodymanufacturingunattractiveBodyjointventuresattractiveifleadtogreaterchassisoraftermarketshareDealerscontrolaccesstohighmarginfinanceandpartsandserviceForwardintegrationintobodieshasnotoccurredClientshouldfocusongainingshareinchassismanufacturingand/orcapturingagreaterpercentageoftruckfinanceandpartsandservice The profit map helped the client evaluate potential markets and their forward integration strategy.Truck Manufacturing Business ExampleProfit Pool Summary27CHIProfit PoolsAgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways28CHIProfit PoolsProfitpoolsarethetotalprofitsearnedinanindustryatallpointsalongtheindustrysvaluechainCompaniesthatrecognizethevariabilityofprofitabilityandcanexploitthedeepestpoolswillearnsuperiorreturnsBuildinganunderstandingofprofitpoolsputsstrategicthinkingonfirmfootingillustratesthecurrentstateoftheindustryprovidesacompetitiveadvantagetotheclienthelpsdevelopinnovativestrategiesTherearemanydifferentsourcesofprofitinanybusinessControlofachokepointscaninfluencethedistributionofprofitsamongcompetitorsandmoredistantvaluechainparticipantsProfit Pools ConceptKey Takeaways(1 of 2)29CHIProfit PoolsProfit Pool StepsKey Success FactorsKeysuccessfactorsinclude:takingabroadviewofthevaluechain,examiningtheindustryfromdifferentperspectives,buildingestimatesfrommultipleperspectives,prioritizingfocustolookatthelargestandeasiestcomponentsfirst,lookingatrelevantinternalandexternalcomparables,gatheringandanalyzingdata,andcreativethinkingTherearefourstepsindevelopingaprofitmap:DefinethepoolDeterminethesizeofthepoolEstimatethedistributionofprofitsReconciletheestimatesKey Takeaways(2 of 2)30CHIProfit PoolsTakeaway Slides Profit Pool ConceptProfit Pool UsesProfit Pool StepsProfit Pool Map31