文化艺术管理学运营管理

第六章运营管理节一概述MarketingGeneratesdemandgetscustomersOperationscreatesproductorserviceFinance/AccountingObtainsfundsTracksorganizationalperformanceOperation oneofthethreemajorfunctionsofanorganizationOperations is the production activities that go on in the organization,regardless of whether the end product is a good or a serviceWhat is Operations?Operations management is the management of systems or processes that creates value in the form of goods and services by transforming inputs into desired outputsWhat Is Operations Management(OM)?典型运营系统的“投入转换产出”之间的关系ImprovingProductivityatStarbucksA team of 10 analysts A team of 10 analysts continually look for ways continually look for ways to save time.Some to save time.Some improvements:improvements:StoprequiringsignaturesStoprequiringsignaturesoncreditcardpurchasesoncreditcardpurchasesunder$25under$25Saved8secondsSaved8secondspertransactionpertransactionChangethesizeoftheiceChangethesizeoftheicescoopscoopspoonspoonSaved14secondsSaved14secondsperdrinkperdrinkNewespressoNewespressopotpotmachinesmachinesSaved12secondsSaved12secondspershotpershotImprovingProductivityatStarbucksA team of 10 analysts A team of 10 analysts continually look for ways continually look for ways to shave time.Some to shave time.Some improvements:improvements:StoprequiringsignaturesStoprequiringsignaturesoncreditcardpurchasesoncreditcardpurchasesunder$25under$25Saved8secondsSaved8secondspertransactionpertransactionChangethesizeoftheiceChangethesizeoftheicescoopscoopSaved14secondsSaved14secondsperdrinkperdrinkNewespressomachinesNewespressomachinesSaved12secondsSaved12secondspershotpershotOperations improvements have Operations improvements have helped Starbucks increase yearly helped Starbucks increase yearly revenue per outlet by$200,000 to revenue per outlet by$200,000 to$940,000 in six years.$940,000 in six years.Productivity has improved by 27%,Productivity has improved by 27%,or about 4.5%per year.or about 4.5%per year.大部分产品:货物与服务的“捆绑”GoodsContainServices/ServicesContainGoods0255075100255075100Automobile assembly,steel makingComputerHome remodeling,retail salesFast-food MealRestaurant MealAuto RepairHospital CareAdvertising AgencyInvestment ManagementConsulting ServiceSurgery,Teaching,CounselingPercent of Product that is a GoodPercent of Product that is a Service不同国家服务在GDP中的比重Source:The World Factbook 2000,CentralIntelligenceAgency,Washington,DC.运营竞争力的维度运营竞争力的维度 价格价格/成本成本 质量质量顾客服务顾客服务产品质量产品质量时间时间快速，可靠的交货快速，可靠的交货新产品的开发新产品的开发柔性柔性/灵活性灵活性为顾客提供多种类型产品的能力为顾客提供多种类型产品的能力订单赢得要素Cost成本成本 固定成本（企业一般管理费用）：不随数量变化而变固定成本（企业一般管理费用）：不随数量变化而变化（短期内）化（短期内）管理费用、销售费用、间接劳动力费用管理费用、销售费用、间接劳动力费用设备支出设备支出重建支出、利息支出重建支出、利息支出变动成本：随产品数量变化而变化变动成本：随产品数量变化而变化购买原材料的费用购买原材料的费用直接劳动力支出直接劳动力支出总成本总成本=固定成本固定成本+数量数量*变动成本变动成本平均成本平均成本=总成本总成本/数量数量质量质量衡量质量的维度衡量质量的维度功能：基本操作的特点功能：基本操作的特点独特的特点独特的特点可靠性：平均故障时间可靠性：平均故障时间一致性：满足规范一致性：满足规范持久性：产品生命周期持久性：产品生命周期易用性：易于维修，平均修理时间易用性：易于维修，平均修理时间审美性：视觉、感觉、听觉、味觉、嗅觉审美性：视觉、感觉、听觉、味觉、嗅觉 感知质量：信誉、品牌名称等感知质量：信誉、品牌名称等服务的质量？服务的质量？Time时间时间提前期提前期=输出时间输出时间-输入时间输入时间顾客服务时间：从顾客发出订单到收到货品的时间顾客服务时间：从顾客发出订单到收到货品的时间（反（反应时间）应时间）库存周转时间：产品在仓库停留的时间库存周转时间：产品在仓库停留的时间（生产提前期或（生产提前期或总生产时间）总生产时间）创新时间：新产品上市时间创新时间：新产品上市时间大多数时间浪费产生于等待大多数时间浪费产生于等待 柔性的必要性柔性的必要性:产品种类在增加产品种类在增加u 佳洁士牙膏：佳洁士牙膏：35种选择（口味，包装尺寸）种选择（口味，包装尺寸）u惠普工作站：惠普工作站：50万种选择（万种选择（RAM卡、视频卡、图像卡、视频卡、图像卡、终端机、磁盘驱动器、光盘驱动器）卡、终端机、磁盘驱动器、光盘驱动器）u 通用汽车：两千万种款式（颜色、内部组装、发动通用汽车：两千万种款式（颜色、内部组装、发动机、可选项目）机、可选项目）u柔性的重要因素柔性的重要因素:企业研制新产品所需的时间以及转企业研制新产品所需的时间以及转变工艺生产新产品所需的时间变工艺生产新产品所需的时间OMsContributiontocompetitionProductQualityProcessLocationLayoutHuman resourceSupply chainInventorySchedulingMaintenanceFLEXIBILITY:Sonys constant innovation of new products.Design HPs ability to lead the printer marketVolume Southwest Airlines No-frills service.LOW COSTDELIVERY:Pizza Huts 5-minute guarantee at lunchtime.Speed Federal Expresss“absolutely,positively on time”.DependabilityQUALITY:Motorolas HDTV converters.Conformance Motorolas pagers.Performance Caterpillars after-sale service on heavy equipment.AFTER-SALE SERVICEFidelity Securitys broad line of mutual funds.BROAD PRODUCT LINEOperationsOperationsSpecificSpecificCompetitiveCompetitiveDecisionsDecisionsExamplesExamplesStrategy UsedStrategy UsedAdvantageAdvantageResponse(Faster)Cost leadership(Cheaper)Differentiation(Better)对运营管理更全面的理解对运营管理更全面的理解 传统观点传统观点现代观点现代观点第二节文艺企业市场需求预测预测ForecastingatDisneyWorldAstaffof35analystsand70fieldpeopleAstaffof35analystsand70fieldpeoplesurvey1millionparkguests,employees,survey1millionparkguests,employees,andtravelprofessionalseachyearandtravelprofessionalseachyearOverviewofQualitativeMethodsuJuryofexecutiveopinionuPoolopinionsofhigh-levelexperts,Poolopinionsofhigh-levelexperts,sometimesaugmentbystatisticalsometimesaugmentbystatisticalmodelsmodelsuDelphimethoduPanelofexperts,queriediterativelyPanelofexperts,queriediterativelyOverviewofQualitativeMethodsSalesforcecompositeEstimatesfromindividualsalespersonsEstimatesfromindividualsalespersonsarereviewedforreasonableness,thenarereviewedforreasonableness,thenaggregatedaggregatedConsumerMarketSurveyAskthecustomerAskthecustomerInvolves small group of high-level experts Involves small group of high-level experts and managersand managersGroup estimates demand by working Group estimates demand by working togethertogetherRelatively quickRelatively quickJuryofExecutiveOpinionSalesForceCompositeEach salesperson projects his or her salesCombined at district and national levelsSales reps know customers wantsTends to be overly optimisticDelphiMethodIterativerepetitiongroupprocess,continuesuntilconsensusisreached特尔斐是希腊历史遗迹,为阿波罗神殿所在地。在古希腊神话中,太阳神阿波罗常在此宣布神谕，因此特尔斐有聪明智慧之意。特尔斐法由专家匿名表示意见、多次反馈和统计汇总等特点。匿名：专家单独表态，填写的调查表也不记名,以免受权威意见影响而改变自己的意见。多次反馈：经过一轮特尔斐活动后，把原始资料或专家意见汇总成图表反馈给参加咨询的专家，在一定期限内回收，再进行汇总分析，然后转入第三轮活动。多次反复可为专家提供了解舆论和修改意见的机会。如某书刊经销商采用德尔非法对某一专著销售量进行预测。该经销商首先选择若干书店经理、书评家、读者、编审、销售代表和海外公司经理组成专家小组。专家们完成第一次预测并得到第一次预测的汇总结果以后，除书店经理B外，其他专家在第二次预测中都做了不同程度的修正。在第三次预测中，大多数专家又一次修改了自己的看法。第四次预测时，所有专家都不再修改自己的意见。因此，专家意见收集过程在第四次以后停止。最终预测结果为最低销售量26万册，最高销售量60万册，最可能销售量46万册。ConsumerMarketSurveyAsk customers about purchasing plansWhat consumers say,and what they actually do are often differentOverviewofQuantitativeApproaches1.Naiveapproach2.Movingaverages3.Exponentialsmoothing4.LinearregressionTime-Series Time-Series ModelsModelsAssociative Associative ModelModelTrendSeasonalCyclicalRandomTimeSeriesComponentsComponentsofDemandDemand for product or service|1234YearAverage demand over four yearsSeasonal peaksTrend componentActual demandRandom variationPersistent,overallupwardordownwardpatternChangesduetopopulation,technology,age,culture,etc.TypicallyseveralyearsdurationTrendComponent3D影像需求2007年9月82个2008年12月110多个2009年8月330多个2009年12月600多个2010年2月970多个2010年4月1100个RegularpatternofupanddownfluctuationsDuetoweather,customs,etc.OccurswithinasingleyearSeasonalComponent电影档期1.冬季档期：新年的第一个周五开始至春假前。2.春季档期：春假开始至阵亡将士纪念日lastMondayofMay周末为止。3.夏季档期：从每年5月下旬至9月4日为止，它的时间跨度长，又正值暑期，自然是所片商最为重视的档期。4.秋季档期：9月5日起至感恩节前，其目标观众多为女性11月的第四个星期四5.岁末假日档期：从感恩节前的一个周末直到新年，虽然没有暑期档时间那么长，但此档因为横跨感恩节和圣诞节两大节日，也是片商必争档期。RepeatingupanddownmovementsAffectedbybusinesscycle,political,andeconomicfactorsMultipleyearsduration法国九月书潮CyclicalComponent0 05 5101015152020UnsystematicfluctuationsUnsystematicfluctuationsDuetorandomvariationorDuetorandomvariationorunforeseeneventsunforeseeneventsShortdurationandShortdurationandnonrepeatingnonrepeating RandomComponentMMT TWWT TF FNaiveApproachAssumes demand in next period is the same as demand in most recent periode.g.,If January sales were 68,then e.g.,If January sales were 68,then February sales will be 68February sales will be 68Sometimes cost effective and efficientCan be good starting pointSimple Moving Average移动平均法Asimple moving averagecalculatestheaveragedemandforthelastnperiods.Thecalculatedaveragevalueistheforecastforthenexttimeperiod.EXAMPLEExponentialSmoothing指数平滑New forecast=New forecast=Last periods forecastLast periods forecast+a a a a (Last periods actual demand Last periods actual demand Last periods forecast Last periods forecast)F Ft t=F=Ft t 1 1+a a a a(A At t 1 1-F Ft t 1 1)wherewhereF Ft t=new forecastnew forecastF Ft t 1 1=previous forecastprevious forecasta a a a=smoothing(or weighting)smoothing(or weighting)constant constant(0(0 a a a a 1)1)ExponentialSmoothingExamplePredicted demand Predicted demand=142=142 Ford Mustangs Ford MustangsActual demand Actual demand=153=153Smoothing constant Smoothing constant a a a a=.20=.20New forecastNew forecast=142+.2(153 142)=142+.2(153 142)=144.2 144 cars=144.2 144 carsImpactofDifferent225 225 200 200 175 175 150 150|1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 9QuarterQuarterDemandDemanda a a a=.1=.1Actual Actual demanddemanda a a a=.5=.5Chose high values of Chose high values of when underlying average when underlying average is likely to changeis likely to changeChoose low values of Choose low values of when underlying average when underlying average is stableis stable直线回归分析运用最小平方法，以直线斜率表示增长趋势的外推预测方法。公式为：Y=a+bX式中：a为直线在Y轴上的截距；b为直线斜率；Y为预测目标值；X为时间。在已知n个观察值（xi，yi）的情况下（i=1,2,n），可依据下式求出参数a、b，然后建立直线趋势方程进行预测。