思考问题的5个步骤课件

来自新加坡的国际咨询机构来自新加坡的国际咨询机构机密：此资料仅供内部参考。未经开锐咨询的书面许可，其它任何机构不得擅自传阅、引用或复制。思考问题的思考问题的5个步骤个步骤Share your talent, Build our co-vision! 1思考问题的5个步骤2咨询顾问思考和解决企业问题时有三大基本原咨询顾问思考和解决企业问题时有三大基本原则则 以事实为基础以假设为导向严格的结构化3和一套行之有效的解决问题的方法和一套行之有效的解决问题的方法第一步第一步陈述/定义问题第二步第二步分解问题第三步第三步剔除所有的非关键问题第四步第四步制定详细的工作计划和研究计划第五步第五步进行关键分析第六步第六步综合结果，提出论点和建议第七步第七步准备强有力的沟通 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . . . . . . . . . . 项目的时间长项目的时间长度和范围取决度和范围取决于议题及可用于议题及可用的资源的资源4Step 1State the problemStep 2Disaggregate the issuesStep 3Eliminate allnon-key issuesStep 4Conduct critical analyses, porpoise between data and hypothesesStep 5Synthesize findings and build argument?其中思考问题的步骤有五个其中思考问题的步骤有五个5Clear statement of problem to be solved or issue to be resolvedCharacteristics of a good problem statementA leading question or firm hypothesisSpecific not generalNot a statement of fact or non-disputable assertionActionableFocuses on what the decision maker needs to move forward?Interviewer states the problemProblem has been clearly stated, and you understand itProblem has NOT been clearly stated, or you dont understand itYou must clearly understand the problemParaphrase the problem to make sure you have it rightAsk questions to clarify the issueStep 2.You are responsible for ensuring the clarity of the problemSTEP 1: 陈述陈述/定义问题定义问题6STEP 2: 构建分析框架，分解问题构建分析框架，分解问题Why use logic trees?1. To break a problem into component parts so thatProblem-solving work can be divided into intellectually manageable piecesPriorities can be set among the partsResponsibilities can be allocated to individuals2. To ensure that the integrity of the problem solving is maintainedSolving the parts will really solve the problemThe parts are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (i.e., no overlaps, no gaps)SubissueSubissueSubissueSubissueSubissueSubissueIssues/hypothesis No. 1Issues/hypothesis No. 2Issues/hypothesis No. 3Problem statementSuggestions - Describe your approach to the interviewer as you proceed. Dont assume they know what you are thinking! - State your hypotheses as crisply as possible. - Only use frameworks if they are appropriate - dont force fit. - The ideas are important, not the framework. “I think we should look at the power of buyers and industry competitiveness” is better than “Id like to apply part of the Porter Five Forces framework”. 7STEP 3: 去除非关键问题去除非关键问题WhyFirst step in constant, interactive refinement processFocuses your effort on what is most importantDos & DontsAlways ask yourself “so what” . . . but also ask yourself what you might have missedTell the interviewer what you are cutting and whyProblem statementIssue 1Issue 2Issue 3Issue 48STEP 4: 基于数据和假设深入分析关键问题基于数据和假设深入分析关键问题DosBe hypothesis-driven and end products-oriented“Porpoise” frequently between hypothesis and dataKeep the analyses as simple asyou can. Be suspicious of huge linear programs and their ilk. Do order of magnitude estimates before you start detailed analysesUse 80/20 and back-of-envelope thinkingDo not be afraid to be creativeDontsDo not just “run the numbers” ask yourself “what question am I trying to answer?”Do not chase your tailDo you really need to calculate the WACC?Dont miss the forest for the trees.Beware of “polishing dirt”Look for breakthrough thinking9STEP 5: 综合分析结果，提出论点和建议综合分析结果，提出论点和建议ComplicationSituationResolutionUse situation, complication, resolution formatPyramid structureor decision treeMain assertionSupporting dataSupporting dataSupporting dataSupporting dataQuestionSub-assertionSub-assertionQuestionQuestionYesAction 1 NoAction 2YesAction 3 NoAction 4and / orState the conditions at point of problemFlesh out barriers to improving situationLay out possible solution path10STEP 2是最关键的步骤，必须使用是最关键的步骤，必须使用MECE法则严法则严格结构化问题，这是思考问题的起点和终点格结构化问题，这是思考问题的起点和终点MECE是“Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive”四个词的字首组合，意为“相互独立，完全穷尽”。在解决问题的过程中，MECE意味着将问题细分为明确的、没有重叠的子问题，同时确保所有相关的问题都已考虑在内。一个好的理论框架都是MECE的，例如科特勒的4P、波特的5力、广为人知的SWOT分析、人机料法环、CQT等都是MECE的，这些现成的理论帮助我们快速深入的建立起思考问题的框架。但有些时候，我们无法利用现成的理论框架，此时就要求我们自行建构一个分析框架，一定要注意必须符合MECE原则。控制过程简单增长快于行业在财务上产生正面影响接管和融合容易市场份额大零售店的竞争力弱成本降低销售增加利润增长业务 独立管理人员不变为什么？购买一家大型的连锁店为什么？举例举例11举例：卖旧车前的准备举例：卖旧车前的准备 没有结构化前，简单的罗列事项：Fix hole in roof 修 理 车 顶 的 破 洞 Get new floormats 买 新 的 车 内 地 毯 Write newspaper ad 写 报 纸 广 告 稿 Get new overhead light 买 新 的 顶 灯 Fix the dents 修 理 车 身 凹 陷 处 Get rust spots painted over 把 锈 斑 喷 漆 Make sign for rear window 写 後 窗 售 车 广 告 Write announcement for bulletin board 写 公 告 板 的 售 车 海 报 1. 9.Vacuum interior 将 车 内 吸 尘12结构化结构化1.Fix hole in roof修 理 车 顶 的 破 洞 2.Get new floormats买 新 的 车 内 地 毯 3.Write newspaper ad写 报 纸 广 告 稿 4.Get new overhead light买 新 的 顶 灯 5.Fix the dents修 理 车 身 凹 陷 处 6.Get rust spots painted over把 锈 斑 喷 漆 7.Make sign for rear window写 後 窗 售 车 广 告 8.Write announcement for bulletin board写 公 告 板 的 售 车 海 报 9.Vacuum interior将 车 内 吸 尘 Get bodywork done(at bodyshop)( 在 车 体 修 理 工 场 )修 理 车 体Spruce up interior(at gas station)( 在 汽 油 站 )把 车 内 部 打 理 乾 净 Prepare advertisements(at home)( 在 家 里 )准 备 广 告 13Vacuum吸 尘 Prepare to sell the car准 备 出 售 汽 车 Fix hole in roof修 理 车 顶 的 破 洞 Fix dents修 理 车 身 凹 陷 处 Repaint rust spots重 新 喷 漆 遮 盖 锈 斑 Get floor- mats买 新 的 车 内 地 毯 Get light买 新 的 灯 Write news-paper ad写 报 纸 广 告 稿 Make sign写 售 车 广 告 Write announce- ment写 公 告 Get bodywork done车 体 修 理 Spruce up interior车 内 部 打 理 乾 净 Prepare advertisements准 备 广 告 MECE 的结果：清晰易懂的结果：清晰易懂