北大报表分析Cha.ppt

Outlineoftoday slecture ValueofafirmtoinvestorsandcreditorsAnalysisofprofitability ROAAnalysisofprofitability ROCEAnalysisofprofitability EPS Thevalueofafirmtoequityinvestors V D1 1 r D2 1 r 2 D3 1 r 3 profitability risk Thevalueofafirmtocreditors V I1 1 r I2 1 r 2 I3 1 r 3 P 1 r 3Ii interestrevenuesinperiodiP returnofprincipal profitability risk FinancialStatementAnalysis 1 Understandtherelationbetweentheexpectedreturnandriskofinvestmentalternatives andtheroleofanalysisinprovidingriskandreturninformation 2 Understandtheusefulnessoftherateofreturnonassets ROA asameasureofafirm soperatingprofitability 3 Understandtheusefulnessoftherateofreturnoncommonshareholders equity ROCE asameasureofprofitability 4 Understandthestrengthsandweaknessesofearningspercommonshareasameasureofprofitability Whattocompare 1 Theplannedratiofortheperiod2 Thecorrespondingratiofromapriorperiod time seriesanalysis 3 Thecorrespondingratioforanotherfirminthesameindustry cross sectionanalysis 4 Theaverageratioforotherfirmsinthesameindustry cross sectionanalysis AnalysisofProfitability Returnonassets ROA returntothefirmasawholeReturnoncommonequity ROCE returntocommonshareholdersonlyEarningspercommonshare AnalysisofProfitability ROA returntothefirm ROCE returntocommonShareholdersonly ReturnonAssets ROA ROApresentsprofitabilityindependentofthesourceoffinancingDoesnotconsiderleverageMeasureofhowwellthefirmusesitsassetstogenerateincomeAsifthefirmisfinancedbyequityalone HorriganCorporation HorriganCorporation assumingnodebts HorriganCorporationROA Averagetotalassetsofthiscompanyinyear4 520 650 2 585 ThenROA 71 2 585 12 2 Whyaddbackinterestincomenetofincometaxsavingsinthenumerator 1 Ifallequity thefirmwon tpay 16interestexpense whichincreasenetincomeby 16 2 at30 taxrate governmentwillcollectanadditionalamountof 4 8 16 30 astax thentheactualincreaseofnetincomeis 16 4 8 DisaggregatingROA ROA ProfitMarginratio Assetturnoverratio ATOmeasuresthefirm sAbilitytogeneratesalesAtagivenlevelofInvestmentinassets PMmeasurestheFirm sabilitytoControlcostandExpensesatagivenLevelofsalesActivity HowtoincreaseROA Atthecurrentassetbase increasesales ButincreasedsalesincreasesATOwhiledecreasesPMAdilemma Soonehastoincreasesalesandatthesametimeholddowncostsandexpenses i e holdPMatcertainlevel HowtoincreaseROA 2 TheevolutionofROAintheU S thegraphsinthenextfewslidesarefromPenmanandNissimReviewofAccountingStudies 2001 RNOA ReturnonnetoperatingassetsRegressiontothemean 回归到平均值 Profitmargin Assetturnover Revenuegrowth DisaggregatePM PM sales COGS SGA depreciation SalesCOGS to SalesratioSelling Generalandadministrative SGA expense to salesratioEtc Byobservingthetimeseriesandcross sectionofeachexpense to salesration onecanidentifyabnormalratiosandinvestigatethereasons inordertocontrolcostsandexpensestoincreasePM DisaggregateATO ATO Sales averagetotalassetsAveragetotalassets averageaccountreceivables averageinventory averagefixedassets averageotherassets Accountsreceivableturnover Measureshowquicklyafirmcollectscash IfA R turnovertwiceayear thentheyaverageonehalfofayearincollection Lesstimeispreferredtomore Ahighturnoverispreferredtoalowone Thedaysofoutstandingforaccountreceivables 365days accountsreceivableturnover Inventoryturnover Indicateshowfastfirmssellmerchandise Ifinventoryturnovertwiceayear thentheyaverageonehalfofayearininventory Holdinginventoryiscostlybecausethefundsinvestedininventorycouldbeusedelsewhere Ahighturnoverispreferredtoalowone Dayofinventoryinwarehouse 365 Inventoryturnover Fixedassetturnover Measurestherelationbetweeninvestmentinlong termorfixedassets suchasproperty plant equipment andsales Efficientuseoffixedassetswouldbeassociatedwithhighsales Iffixedassetsturnovereveryfouryears theneachdollarinvestedinfixedassetsisgeneratingaquarterofadollarinsalesperyear Ahighturnoverispreferredtoalowone ReturnonCommonEquity ROCE Thenumeratormeasuresreturnasnetincomereducedbyanypaymentstopreferredshareholdersasthesedividendsarenotavailabletothecommonshareholderandhavenotbeendeductedfromnetincome ThedenominatoristheaverageamountcontributedbycommonshareholderswhichincludesCommonstockatpar Additionalpaidincapital andRetainedearnings RelationbetweenROAandROCE ROCEistheresidualreturnwhichgoestothecommonshareholders Sinceitmaybelowinpooryearsbuthighingoodyears ithasarisk thatis theresidualreturnisnotknown Debtischaracterizedbyadefinitescheduleofpayments sothereislittlerisktothedebtholders Preferredstockislikedebt thedividendsarespecified However debtorsmustbepaidbeforepreferredshareholdersandifthemoneyrunsout thentheyaren tpaid RelationbetweenROAandROCE ROAcanbedividedintoReturntocreditorsordebtorsReturntopreferredshareholders andReturntocommonshareholders ROCE Becausethereturntodebtorsandpreferredshareholdersarefixed ingoodyearswhenthefirmhashighreturns thereisalotofprofitleftoverforthecommonshareholders inpooryearswhenreturnsarelow thereislittleormaybenoprofitleftover RelationbetweenROAandROCE Thus ifROCEandROAwerebothlinear thenROCEwouldhaveagreaterslopethanROA thatis itismorehighlylevered Aprudentfirmwillborrowfundsonlywhenthereturnonthosemarginalfundsexceedthecostofborrowinggivinganetpositivereturntothecommonshareholder ROCEcanbedisaggregatedintothreerelatedratios1 Profitmarginratio2 Totalassetsturnover3 Leverageratio RelationbetweenROAandROCE Thefirsttwohavebeenpreviouslydefined Leverageratioindicatestherelativeproportionofcapitalprovidedbycommonshareholdersasdistinctfromthatprovidedbycreditors debtors orpreferredshareholders RelationbetweenROAandROCE Ahighleverageratiomeansthatthefirmhasalotofassetsatitscommand butthattheshareholdershavelessoftheirowninvestmentsatrisk Thisisgoodingoodyearsbecausethecommonshareholderscaptureallprofitsoverwhatisneededtoservicethedebt Thisisbadinpooryearsbecausethedebthastobeservicedwhetherornotthecommonshareholdersmakeaprofit Therefore borrowingisonlybeneficialwhenROAisgreaterthanthecosttoborrowmoney TheevolutionofROCEandnetborrowingcost NBC intheU S Debit to Equityratio leverage intheU S EarningsperShare EPS ofCommonStock Thisratioistheprofitthatgoestoeachshareofcommonstock Itwouldbesimplythenetincomelesspreferreddividendsdividedbythenumberofcommonshares However thenumberofcommonsharesiscomplicatedbycertainsecuritiesthatmaybecome convertto acommonshare Howtoaccountfortheseisacomplexissue Forexample ifthereare100commonsharesbut50preferredsharesthatcouldconvertto50commonshares doyoudivideearningsby100or150 Theanswerdependsonhowlikelyitisthattheconvertiblesecuritieswillconvert EarningsperShare EPS ofCommonStock EPSdoesnotconsidertheamountofassetsorcapitalrequiredtogenerateearnings EPSisoflimiteduseincomparingtwofirms Forinvestmentpurposes thepricetoearningsratioissometimesused P Eratio Thisisthereturntothepurchaserofashare P E marketpriceofashareofstock EPS AlowP EispreferredtoahighP E sameearningsatalowerprice NorthwestAirlines2001