三峡工程对长江三角洲冲淤影响

会计学1三峡工程对长江三角洲冲淤影响三峡工程对长江三角洲冲淤影响第1页/共43页第2页/共43页第3页/共43页第4页/共43页第5页/共43页三 峡 大 坝 建 筑 工 地 一 角第6页/共43页三 峡 水 库 蓄 水 水 位 ：2003年 ： 135 m2009年 ： 175 m第7页/共43页第8页/共43页第9页/共43页第10页/共43页第11页/共43页第12页/共43页第13页/共43页第14页/共43页Table1 Examples of impoundment of riverine sediments in reservoirs of the Changjiang River and other rivers in the worldExamples from some of the tributaries and the trunk stream of the Changjiang RiverReservoir (s)River Capacity(109m3)IRR(%)(1)DR (106/yr)(2)IRS (%)(3)RRA (%)(4)PeriodDanjiangkouHanjiang17.4544.371.790.81001968-1994(5)GezhoubaChangjiang1.580.368.271.681001981-2000(6)GongzuiDaduhe0.3180.7213.2644.31001967-1987(7)(8)WujiangduWujiang2.1514.5372.81979-1998(8)BikouBailongjiang0.5216.0116.664.61001975-1996(9)ReservoirsJialinjiang5.5757.954632.926-19969(10)ReservoirsJinshajiang2.8131.8517.367.083.1-1996(10)Examples from other riversReservoir (s)River Capacity(109m3)IRR(%)(1)DR (106/yr)(2)IRS (%)(3)RRA (%)(4)PeriodPanjiakouLuanhe2.9362.121.295.41001980-1988(11)ReservoirsEbro7.7571449696 1916-2000(12)Lake NassarNile168.9228110981001964-(13)(14)第15页/共43页上 游 库 容 和 水 库 淤 积 量 的 迅 速 增 长00.511.522.531950s1960s1970s1980s1990s时 段累积库容（1010 m3）年淤积量（108 t）累 积 库 容水 库 年 淤 积 总 量长 江 修 建 水 库 对 入 海 泥 沙 量 的 影 响第16页/共43页第17页/共43页D = 0.081C - 0.2121r = 0.995 n = 6P = 0.00050123456020406080Reservoirs capacity (109 m3)Annual deposition (10 8 t/a)第18页/共43页第19页/共43页第20页/共43页第21页/共43页024681012141971-19751975-19791979-19831983-19871987-19911991-19951995-1998PeriodProgradation rate (km2/a)第22页/共43页Correlative relationship betw een river sediment supplyand intertidal w etland progradation (hysteresis is takeninto account)R = 6.9464S - 21.06r = 0.901 N = 7 P = 0.00624681012143.33.63.94.24.54.8River sediment supply (108 t/a)）Progradation rate（km2/a）第23页/共43页 Reduction in accretion rate of a typicalsubtidal area (Eastern Jiuduansha)051015201965-19711971-19771977-19851985-19951995-2000PeriodAccretion rate（cm/a)第24页/共43页输沙量前延1 9 月( a ccr e tion against sedimentsupply)y = 8.4447x - 24.926R = 0.933 N=5 Sig.=0.0210510152025300350400450500550第25页/共43页第26页/共43页典型断面对河流来沙量减少的响应-25-20-15-10-5006121824303642485460向海距离 (km)理论基准面以下 (m)199819781958第27页/共43页a (Profile A)b (Profile A)c (Profile A)d (Profile B)e (Profile B)f (Profile B)第28页/共43页Table 2 Accretion rates (mm/yr) of different periods and profiles in relation to river sediment supplies (106 t/yr) 1958-19771977-19841984-1998Profile a (36 km in length) 34 70-40Profile b (47 km in length) 14 -1830 Average 22.8 20.2-0.4 River sediment supply474462363第29页/共43页第30页/共43页长江口前沿长江口前沿10m和和20m等深线的淤进速率的变化及其与大通输沙率之间的关系等深线的淤进速率的变化及其与大通输沙率之间的关系指 标10 m 等 深 线 20 m 等 深 线1958-19651965-19781978-19971958-19651965-19781978-1997时 段（年）7132071320净淤进距离 (m)13851855-232*13761804-425*淤进速率(m/yr)198143-12*197139-22*输沙率(108 t/yr)4.984.493.944.984.493.94淤进速率(R) 和输沙率（S）之间的关系R (m/yr)= 203.55S (108 t/yr) 800.2；r=0.973, n=3临界输沙率3.93亿吨/年R (m/yr)= 212.25S (108 t/yr) 844.1；r=0.974, n=3临界输沙率3.98亿吨/年 * “”表示蚀退. 第31页/共43页第32页/共43页Table 2. Decrease in vertical accretion rate in response to the decline in river sediment load, 1978-1997 versus 1958-1978.Period1958-19781978-1997Deposition of riverine sediment supplySSD, 106t/yr466394SSC, kg/m30.5430.448Within the study region%5915106t/yr27759Outside the study region%4185106t/yr189335Accretion and erosion over the study regionAccretionAreakm245223332%7656Volume, km3/yr0.3380.148Vertical accretion rate, mm/yr7442ErosionAreakm213092202%2237Volume, km3/yr-0.111-0.0998Vertical accretion rate, mm/yr-79-42Net accretionVolume, km3/yr0.2270.0482Vertical accretion rate, mm/yr388第33页/共43页Table 3. Comparison of accretion and erosion between he inner subaqueous delta and the outer subaqueous delta*.PeriodInner subaqueous deltaOuter subaqueous deltaArea, %Net vertical accretion rate, mm/yrArea, %Net vertical accretion rate, mm/yrAccretionErosionAccretionErosion1958-19786830258414511978-199757361455382* The inner subaqueous delta and the outer subaqueous delta, separated by 122.3E, occupies 51% and 49% of the study region, respectively. As in Table 2, accretion area and erosion area is an area with the vertical accretion rate of 5 mm/yr and -5 mm/yr, respectively.第34页/共43页ASD means annual sediment discharge. *Yichang Station. * The ratio is directly proportional to SSC, which in the 1990s was 82.8% of that in the 1960s. # Datong Station. 第35页/共43页三峡工程前后大通站年输沙量对比0123456-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 102030405060708090 100三峡工程前(-)后(+)时段（年）年输沙量（亿吨）第36页/共43页海平面上升和河流输沙率减少共同作用下今后海平面上升和河流输沙率减少共同作用下今后20年潮滩（崇明东滩、九段沙年潮滩（崇明东滩、九段沙 横沙东滩之和）面积损失及其占现存潮滩的比例估算横沙东滩之和）面积损失及其占现存潮滩的比例估算 海平面 上 升速率 河流输沙率低估计(4mm/a)中估计(6mm/a)高估计(8mm/a)面积损失（km2）%面积损失（km2）%面积损失（km2）%低估计(1.5亿吨/年) 准同步法*127371333913840权重法*202592076021362中估计(2.0亿吨/年)准同步法*772282248826权重法*140411454215144高估计(2.5亿吨/年) 准同步法*2673193611权重法*782383248926第37页/共43页第38页/共43页第39页/共43页第40页/共43页输沙量前延1 9 月( a ccr e tion against sedimentsupply)y = 8.4447x - 24.926R = 0.933 N=5 Sig.=0.0210510152025300350400450500550第41页/共43页输沙量前延1 9 月( a ccr e tion against sedimentsupply)y = 8.4447x - 24.926R = 0.933 N=5 Sig.=0.0210510152025300350400450500550第42页/共43页第43页/共43页