TheQuantificationalEvaluationofShanghaiWorldExpositionIn

The Quantificational Evaluation of Shanghai World Exposition In 2010ImpactAbstractIn this paper，we undertake the quantificational evaluation form the economic aspects on the impact of Shanghai World Exposition.We divide the economic aspects into two stages to analysis.The first stage is the previous World Exposition stage(from China successfully bids for the Shanghai World Exposition to World Exposition ending).The second stage is post World Exposition.We mainly analysis the receive of national tourism，the infrastructure construction of the World Exposition throwed in , the foreign economic and trade volume and total industrial production on the first stage.We use the regression analysis and accumulative building method to forecast the correlational data about four factors.We handle the correlational data from 2002 to 2009 about four factors to predict the correlational data about four factors that take no account of Shanghai World Exposition.We compare the correlational data about four factors with these taken no account of Shanghai World Exposition.We define the impact proportion factor to scale the impact of the World Exposition upon the severalty factor.We use one degree exponential smoothing method and fit method confirm four factor s weight.We define the impact strength to build the impact strength model. The impact strength is impact proportion factorcorresponding weight summation.We solve out the impact strength of Shanghai World Exposition .It is 1.1818.From the maintenance of World Expositions building and follow-up tour,we quantificationally predict the expenditure of maintenance.It is 0.978 billion in 2011. We refer to the Kunming horticultural Expositions follow-up impact on trade to analysis Shanghai World Expositions follow-up impact on trade situation.Key word:impact strength;quantificational evaluation; impact proportion factorRestatementThe world expo 2010 Shanghai is the first held in China. To host the world expo will have a great economic role in boosting, from London industrial exposition start, the world expo is increasingly becoming peoples communication history and culture, display and technological achievements, reflect the spirit of cooperation, look forward to the future development of the important stage. This article mainly from the economic aspect, to bid for the success of the world expo since economic situation and related data were analyzed, the quantitative evaluation of the 2010 Shanghai world expo, and predict the impact factors of world expo stage after indicators.problem analysisLike Shanghai world expo such major exhibition will generally boost host economic produce to some degree ,which not only exist in expo held phase, also can affect expo held the certain period after the 2010 world expo. Economy contains many aspects of society, because of the impact on the economy of the world expo and the bid after world expo stage since the impact degree is different. This paper divided economic level into the world expo successfully held and post World Exposition for analysis.Meanwhile we mainly analyse the receive of national tourism，the infrastructure construction of the World Exposition throwed in , foreign economic and trade volume and total industrial production on the first stage.In addition,since there is no relevant data in the title, but it can be obtained through access relevant information.To compare have considered expo 2010 world expo circumstances and without considering the various factors, we use the definition below impact strength value about the world expo to quantitative analysis of expo impact. On the analysis of the 2010 world expo stage, can use for reference in 1999 in yunnan held in kunming international horticultural exposition of the following impact for prediction of the 2010 Shanghai world expos follow-up impact. Assumptions1、 The infrastructure of World Exposition construction mainly concentrate before 20112、 2010 other factors affects the economy with the same with other year3、 The Shanghai world expo that be held a few months has the same degree of economic growthSymbols：the national tourism revenue：the expo infrastructure construction investment：foreign economic and trade volume：total industrial production：the world expo directly affect benefit factor tourism：the expo directly infrastructure construction impact scaling factor：the world expo direct import and export volume influence scaling factor：the world expo directly influence of scaling factor of industrial output：the world expo impact strength：the weight of the world expo total tourism revenue：the expo infrastructure investment weights：the total import and export volume of the expo weights：the expo industrial output value of weightsAnalysis of the problem5.1The world expo on analyzing the effect of various factors5.1.1 The analysis of national tourism revenueTourism is a industry that is remarkably affected by social factors. Once society have unusual happened, it can make tourism bought inhibit or positive impact. The expo held in Shanghai, will increase Chinas reputation to some degree and attract large numbers of tourists at home and abroad. In 2000 the tourism revenues until 2009, such as shown in table 1. Table 1 2000 until 2009 tourism revenue Unit: billion yuanYear2000200120022003200420052006200720082009Tourism revenues4519499555664882682076868935109571160012900In order to study the effects of expo how, we use until 2009 tourism revenues to estimate of year 2010 tourism income, 2000 in 2009 tourism income drawn scatterplot chart shown, as shown in figure 1.Figure 1 tourism revenues and year relations scatterplot chartThrough the scatterplot chart easily found in 2003, except the data anomalies in 2003, tourism revenues outside kept a level for abnormal growth, easy to understand, according to a 2003 are analyzed, the 2003 domestic and worldwide the spread of SARS, seriously affecting tourism. We delete 2003 abnormal data, and other data roughly into a straight line growth, establish a linear regression mode.l.Using least-square method for solving the correlation coefficient. ,且.By the correlation coefficient knowable, its value is close to 1, regression equation is remarkable.Inspection parameters F value is larger, regression equation markedly, the probability of F is, To explain the built model that was established,we get the regression equation for: , Put into equations obtained without considering opening bid for the expo (refers to the world expo success but not yet started) under the condition of the tourism revenues in 2010, its result for the prediction: 13894 billion yuan.After the world expo 2010, we use the first half of tourism revenue to predict 2010 year tourism revenue. We assume the first and the second half of the same tourism revenue in 2010. The first-half tourism revenue is 75 million yuan in 2010. Since the second half of the data is currently unavailable,but we can use half a years estimated annual data .we can get considering the world expo in 2010 under the condition of tourism revenues of approximately $15,000 billion yuan. According to the Internet provides experts predict data floating billion yuan ,we measure with the prediction error during the first half of 4%, error is not large.We may define the expo directly affect benefit factor for tourismThus we can get , is greater than 1 ,which shows the Shanghai world expo tourism to produce a leading role.is the stronger the leading role.5.1.2 Infrastructure construction total investment analysisIn order to successfully host the world exposition, Shanghai will build some infrastructure and increase investment in environmental protection, and these infrastructure to build before the start of the expo, because of the 2009 infrastructure construction total to consider expo data,from 1995 to 2009 Shanghai infrastructure investment as shown in chart 2. Table 2 From 1995 to 2009 Shanghai infrastructure units: billion yuanYear19951996199719981999200020012002Infrastructure construction273.78378.78412.85531.38501.39449.90510.78583.49Year2003200420052006200720082009Infrastructure construction604.62672.58885.741125.541466.331733.182113.45We draw out since 1995, Shanghais infrastructure construction of the total amount of the scatterplot chart, as figure2 shows.Figure 2 Shanghai infrastructure construction and the amount of vintage relations scatterplot chartThrough the figure 2 can see 2002 until 2009, these a few years infrastructure construction total into is exponentially, creating an exponent equations: .Using a fitting obtained for coefficient:Thus we can gain this equation for: .We can gain the prediction value that doesnt consider the impact of expo for 1873.19 billion yuan, and impact of 2009 consider expo infrastructure cost for 2113.45 billion yuan.We may define the expo directly infrastructure construction impact scaling factor for the ：This have ， is greater than 1 ，which shows the Shanghai world expo Shanghai increased the foundation of making facilities. The Shanghai municipal infrastructure investment is larger.5.1.3 The total import and export volumeThe world expo held in Shanghai, which can bring enormous business opportunities to Shanghai and national, from1995 to 2009 Shanghai import and export volume as shown in table 3. Table 3 1995 to 2009 Shanghai import and export volume unit: billion dollarsYear19951996199719981999200020012002Total import and export volume190.25222.63247.64313.44386.04547.10608.98726.64Year2003200420052006200720082009Total import and export volume1123.971600.261863.652274.892829.733221.382777.31Therefore,we can map out import and export trade of scatterplot chart, as figure 3 shows that, by graph of the 2009 declined, this is due to the international financial crisis to import and export trade brings inhibition.Figure 3 import and export trade of scatterplot chartFrom the scatterplot chart we are not easy to see the regularity of data, so original data accumulation generation and accumulation generations main purpose is to put the nonnegative of Numbers or any irregular sequence into the filamentous columns. Transformed into the data tend to have certain regularity. Using after conversion of data, drawings, as shown in figure 4 roughly movements as shown.Figure 4 accumulated generation after data trendWe can see from the chart 4 after 2003 roughly a straight-line growth in 2005, after some more obvious respectively, the 2003, 2004, 2005 after a fitting data, through comparison and analysis, as shown in figure 5 shows, in 2005 after data will be fitted in the results minimum error.Figure 5 2005 after data fitting figureThus we can gain a fitting function for: , Through this function prediction of 2010 accumulation generation value for 21669.79 billion dollars, and its accumulation generation with 2009 18934.02 billion dollars for poor value, we finally obtained import and export volume of 2010 for 2735.77 billion dollars.Through the predicted values and the relative error accumulation generation value are analyzed, such as shown in table 4, it can be seen that the relative error is lesser, accumulation generation of practical value is more accurate.Table 4 predicted values and relative error accumulation generation value analysisYearpredictionAccumulation generation actual valueThe relative error %20057540.947830.72-0.03701200610366.7110105.620.025836200713192.4812935.320.01988200816018.2516156.72-0.00857200918844.0218934.02-0.00475By 2010, import and export trade between (currently known data is better than the same period in 2009, have a greatly enhance the first seven months of the year, the Shanghai realized total export total 2043.2 billion, a sharp increase compared to the same period last year, can get individual 40.4% year-on-year growth rate in the import and export trade are about 40%, due to the limitations of the data in the prediction of the 2010 world expo circumstances import and export volume, with the growth rate of r in the first several representative annual growth rate of the 2009, known for import and export volume 2777.3 billion us dollars in total import trade growth for 40.4%, 2010 for import and export trade between 3899.33 billion dollars.We define the expo direct import and export volume influence scaling factor forThis may have , is greater than 1,which shows the Shanghai world expo impetus to the import and export, making the total import and export volume increased. The value larger ,the 2010 world expo impetus function stronger.5.1.4 Gross industrial outputIndustrial output value refers to the currency is the industrial business that behaves production inside report period of industrial products, it is the total amount of economic and social life is an important index, 1996 to 2009 Shanghai industrial output such as shown in table 5. Table 5 1996 to 2009 Shanghai industrial output unit: billion yuanYear1996199719981999200020012002Gross industrial output5126.225649.935763.676213.247022.987806.188730Year2003200420052006200720082009Gross industrial output11708.514595.316876.819631.223108.625968.424888.08Since 2002, we analyzed the Shanghai industrial output and rendering the industrial gross scatterplot chart, as shown in figure 6 shows, we can found it present trend and import and export trade.Figure 6 industrial output and year scatterplot chartOn the analysis of industrial output taken with import and export volume similar analysis methods we get accumulation generation value function for：We predict import and export trade of 2010 between accumulative value for 219637.57999897 billion yuan, assuming that does not consider expo cases of gross industrial output is equal to the prediction of the 2010 prediction accumulation generation value 2009 accumulation generation, its result for value 30012.08 billion yuan.Shanghai municipal statistics bureau latest data show that from January to April, Shanghai complete industrial output accumulative total reached 8886.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, usable first-quarter growth approximate replace full-year growth, we can get the 2010 world expo held under the circumstance of industrial output is about 32603.28 billion yuanWe define the expo industrial gross directly affect scaling factor for：This have， value is greater than 1 ，which shows the Shanghai world expo spurred industrial output increases,The larger is, the world expo impetus function stronger.Through using the method of accumulation generation, gross industrial output value of the predicted values and the actual value relatively close, as shown in figure 7 shown.Figure 7 total industrial output value of forecasting results and actual value contrast5.2 Expo economic influence comprehensive analysis5.2.1 Four factors determine the weightIn order to quantitatively evaluate the expo impact can be defined, and the expo impact strength. The world expo impact strength refers to the world expo to the impact of social economy proportions，that is，various factors that influence the scaling factorthe corresponding weights of the sum. According to the tourism revenues, infrastructure construction total input, we press them in the proportion of GDP to determine their influencing strength weight ratio relations.Table 6 factors proportion of GDP YearGDP (billion yuan)Shanghai GDP (billion yuan)Tourism (billion yuan）What accounts for the GDP percentageConstruction total inputs (billion yuanBuilding GDP percentage199670142.52957.55378.7812.8199778060.83438.79412.8512.0199883024.33801.09531.3813.9199988479.24188.73501.3911.9200098000.54771.1745194.5449.99.42001108068.25210.1249954.5510.789.82002119095.75741.0355664.6583.4910.12003135174.06694.2348823.6604.629.02004159586.78072.8368204.2672.588.32005184088.69247.6676864.2885.749.52006213131.710572.2489354.21125.510.62007259258.912494.01109574.21466.311.72008302853.414069.87116003.81733.212.32009335353.015046.45129003.82113.414.0We can map out tourism, infrastructure construction investment to GDP percentage of scatterplot chart, as shown in figure 8 shows, directly from the graph that infrastructure construction total investment accounts for share of GDP and timing of the law is not obvious, and this data in recent years the relationship between close simliar.Figure 8 each factor of GDP (see the scatterplot chartOn economic data, in many cases, the prophase of digital doesnt equal effect, then later data using recent data estimate is more reasonable, usually on the economic data estimates can be used once exponential smoothing, exponential smoothing method according to the basic thinking is distance forecast unhealthily give different sizes of the weighted function. We generally consider recent value than the early value more important to logical. In such a case, recent value deserves greater weight. A formula for exponential smoothing method.Among themis moments of observations, is moments of observations, is the smooth coefficient. The range of 0 to 1, shows that the recent value between the weight than the early right is significant. Exponential smoothing method is the key to the determination of smooth coefficient . General time series is smooth, data fluctuation is lesser, value can be little to some degree, so it can increase the long-term data of multi-infrastructures and function, make full use of history data of information. If the time series data fluctuating is larger, then select the higher value should be . We generally take 0.7 to 0.95 between, so it can increase the recent data of multi-infrastructures and role. Full consideration to 2010 data in recent years, and because of the impact of the 2009 data suffer a financial crisis of effects to determine the impact of can reflect 2009 minimum error and the value.we can take. We solve the 2010 infrastructure construction total investment accounts for share of GDP, which can use make full use of the method in data one power exponential smoothing get, the 2010 infrastructure to GDP 13.4percentage.When we solve the equation,we make the unusual situation excluded. tourism is linear downward trend, but by lesser, with a fitting to estimate the 2010 tourism revenue share of GDP, the equation for: .The into equation is obtained by 2010 the tourism of GDP for 3.72%. This can get tourism revenues and infrastructure construction total investment in the expo in impact strength.The weight proportion is1:3.6。For import and export volume and industrial output value of weight determination of the relationship, we use have expo impact cases infrastructure construction total investment is 2113.4 billion yuan, the total import and export volume for 3899.33 billion and $industrial output value is the ratio of the 32603.28 billion yuan to determine the size of infrastructure construction total investment, the total import and export volume and industrial output value of world expo impact strength weight ratio is 1:1.85：15.4. Then each factor is the proportion between the relations and weights shown in table 7.Table 7 each factor of GDP and weightsFactorsProportional relationsWeightsTourism revenues0.280.02Infrastructure constructio