资源描述
C16-,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Country Risk Analysis,17,Chapter,South-Western/Thomson Learning 2003,See,c16.xls,for spreadsheets to accompany this chapter.,Chapter Objectives,To identify the common factors used by MNCs to measure a countrys political risk and financial risk;,To explain the techniques used to measure country risk;and,To explain how the assessment of country risk is used by MNCs when making financial decisions.,Country Risk Analysis,Country risk represents the potentially adverse impact of a countrys environment on the MNCs cash flows.,Country Risk Analysis,Country risk can be used:,to monitor countries where the MNC is presently doing business;,as a screening device to avoid conducting business in countries with excessive risk;and,to improve the analysis used in making long-term investment or financing decisions.,Political Risk Factors,Attitude of Consumers in the Host Country,Some consumers may be very loyal to homemade products.,Attitude of Host Government,The host government may impose special requirements or taxes,restrict fund transfers,subsidize local firms,or fail to enforce copyright laws.,Political Risk Factors,Blockage of Fund Transfers,Funds that are blocked may not be optimally used.,Currency Inconvertibility,The MNC parent may need to exchange earnings for goods.,War,Internal and external battles,or even the threat of war,can have devastating effects.,Bureaucracy,Bureaucracy can complicate businesses.,Corruption,Corruption can increase the cost of conducting business or reduce revenue.,Political Risk Factors,Corruption Perceptions Index,The index,which is published by Transparency International,reflects the degree to which corruption is perceived to exist among public officials and politicians.,In 2001,91 countries are ranked on a clean score of 10.,Rank Country Score,1Finland9.9,3New Zealand9.4,4Singapore9.2,7Canada8.9,13U.K.8.3,14Hong Kong7.9,16Israel7.6,16U.S.A.7.6,18Chile7.5,20Germany7.4,21Japan7.1,Rank Country Score,23France6.7,26Botswana6.0,27Taiwan5.9,38South Africa 4.8,42South Korea4.2,46Brazil4.0,51Mexico3.7,57Argentina3.5,57China3.5,79Russia2.3,88Indonesia1.9,Find out more about,Transparency International,and the,Corruption Perceptions Index,by visiting.,Online Application,Financial Risk Factors,Current and Potential State of the Countrys Economy,A recession can severely reduce demand.,Financial distress can also cause the government to restrict MNC operations.,Indicators of Economic Growth,A countrys economic growth is dependent on several financial factors-interest rates,exchange rates,inflation,etc.,What are the political and financial outlook for various countries?,Online Application,Consult the Country Commercial Guides prepared by embassy staff at :/usatrade.gov/website/ccg.nsf/ccghomepage?openform.,Refer to the CIAs World Factbook at :/odci.gov/.,Visit :/biz.yahoo /ifc/,Types of Country Risk Assessment,A,macro-assessment,of country risk is an overall risk assessment of a country without consideration of the MNCs business.,A,micro-assessment,of country risk is the risk assessment of a country as related to the MNCs type of business.,Types of Country Risk Assessment,The overall assessment of country risk thus consists of:,Macro-political risk,Macro-financial risk,Micro-political risk,Micro-financial risk,Note that the opinions of different risk assessors often differ due to subjectivities in:,identifying the relevant political and financial factors,determining the relative importance of each factor,and,predicting the values of factors that cannot be measured objectively.,Types of Country Risk Assessment,Techniques of Assessing Country Risk,A,checklist approach,involves rating and weighting all the identified factors,and then consolidating the rates and weights to produce an overall assessment.,The,Delphi technique,involves collecting various independent opinions and then averaging and measuring the dispersion of those opinions.,Techniques of Assessing Country Risk,Quantitative analysis,techniques like regression analysis can be applied to historical data to assess the sensitivity of a business to various risk factors.,Inspection visits,involve traveling to a country and meeting with government officials,firm executives,and/or consumers to clarify uncertainties.,Often,firms use a variety of techniques for making country risk assessments.,For example,they may use a checklist approach to develop an overall country risk rating,and some of the other techniques to assign ratings to the factors considered.,Techniques of Assessing Country Risk,Developing A Country Risk Rating,A checklist approach will require the following steps:,Assign values and weights to the political risk factors.,Multiply the factor values with their respective weights,and sum up to give the political risk rating.,Derive the financial risk rating similarly.,Developing A Country Risk Rating,Multiply the rating
展开阅读全文