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单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,管理科学与工程专业适用,管理科学与工程专业适用,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,*,The Tools and Methodologies of Risk Analysis,工程项目风险管理与保险,双语课,ContentsofRiskAnalysis,Analysisofriskeventsevolution;,RiskEvaluationfor:,occurringprobabilityofriskevents,variedpossibleriskconsequences,andtheirconditionalprobabilitiesgivenoriginaleventoccurring.,Analysisofriskeventevolution,FaultTreeAnalysis(FTA,故,障,障,树,树,),EventTreeAnalysis,（,ETA,，,事,事,件,件,树,树,）,）,Whatisafaulttree,？,Isaspecialkindofinvertedtreelogiccausalitydiagram,itUSESeventsymbols,transferoflogicgatesignsandsymbolstodescribeacause-and-effectrelationshipbetweenvariouseventsinthesystem.Logicgateinputoutputeventsbecause,logicgateoutputistheinputeventsfruit.,name,symbol,Causal relationship,With the door,Input all events occur at the same time have a output,Or gate,The input as long as there is an event occurs that is output,The forbidden door,The input conditional event is output,Order the door,Input all events occur in from left to right order is output,X or gate,The input event is when only one event in the output,symbol,name,meaning,circular,Basic event,there are enough raw data,rectangular,By logic gates expressed event of failure,The diamond,For reasons unknown failure events,Double diamond,Have an impact on the fault tree,needs further study the cause of the failure of unknown event,The room type,Possible failure events may not appear,triangle,Connection and the symbols,Theprocedureoffaulttreeanalysis,1.,Befamiliarwiththesystem,2.Investigateaccidents,3.Determinethetopevent,4.Determinethetargetvalue,5.Reasons for investigation,6.Drawthefault tree,Theprocedure offault treeanalysis,7.Analysis,8.The accidentprobability,9.Comparing,10.Analysis,Supervisionof project failure,Fromtheownersrisk,Fromthecontractors risk,Fromtherisk ofsupervision,X,1,X,2,X,6,X,3,X,4,X,5,X,7,X,11,X,10,X,8,X,9,A Case:Typicalrisk,X1:,feasibilitystudy reportlack ofseriousness,X2:,macro management,investmentdeficiency,The,X3:,blind intervention,deprivedoftherights of the engineering consultant,X4:,dont respect contract,no respect for the rights and interestsof the contractor,X5:,projectpaymentdoesnotreach the designated position or settlementina timelymanner,Fromtheownersrisk,X6:contractor bidding not honest,BiddersX7:lack of business ethics,Theunder-fundedbyX8:contractors,X9:contractorqualityistoolow,Fromthecontractors risk,Event tree analysiscase,Thewater systemoftheaccidentevent treeanalysis,ProbabilityMethods,Using the,existingdataanalysis,riskevent probability distribution,Theory of probability distribution,is usedto determinetheprobabilityofriskevents,Theprobabilityof riskevents using,subjective probability analysis,Analogy,is usedto derive the probability ofrisk events,Using the existing dataanalysisrisk eventprobabilitydistribution,Case,:the emergenceof constructionperiod delayrisk probability calculation,A construction company in the past to complete 72 construction projects,duetovariousreasons,some part of the project has delayed time limitfora project.Draggedprojecttimelimit for aproject,arrange them get situationasshown inthetable.Thetimelimit for aprojectinthetable are the relative valueofdelay time;Thenumber of frequencyfortheproject.,Theconstructionperioddelay data statistics,Data packet interval,（,%,）,In the group values,（,%,）,frequency,frequency,（,%,）,The cumulative frequency,（,%,）,-34-30,-32.5,0,0.0,0.00,-29-25,-27.5,2,2.78,2.78,-24-20,-22.5,1,1.39,4.17,-19-15,-17.5,3,4.17,8.34,-14-10,-12.5,7,9.72,18.06,-9-5,-7.5,10,13.89,31.95,-40,-2.5,15,20.83,52.78,15,2.5,12,16.67,69.45,610,7.5,9,12.50,81.95,1115,12.5,8,11.11,93.06,1620,17.5,4,5.56,98.62,2125,22.5,0,0.00,98.62,2630,27.5,1,1.39,100.01,3135,32.5,0,0.00,100.01,Timelimit for aprojectdelay distributionexperience,-30-25 -20-15-10-5051015202530%,Frequency(probability),0.2083,Estimatetheconstruction perioddelay eventprobability,Forexample,a company planned constructionperiod of 16months,ifyouwanttoknowtheprobabilityofconstructionperioddelay 3months,shall becalculatedon the followingsteps,：,3/16,100%=18.8%,Fromthetable or figurecancheck the constructionperiod delayistheprobabilitythat3 months,5.56%,。,Theory of probability distribution is used to determinetheprobabilityof riskevents,Casestudy:,Qualitydataarevolatile,the factor iscausedby manyfactors,andunder the conditionofnormal production,the roleof eachfactor is not obvious,and thereisno one factor playsa leading role.So the fluctuations,Normal distribution.,In the constructionof waterconservancyprojects,manyhydrology workers studyof riverflood peakflowofrandomness,found that mostof the rivers obeyed,P-,type distribution.,Theprobabilityof riskevents usingsubjectiveprobabilityanalysis,Casestudy:,A project isdividedinto five standard,itemized bid,abidderintendsto participate in one ofthebid,assumethat abidder the winning probability is differentforeachtarget,namelynotthebiddingriskisdifferent.Bidders please four expert ofbiddingrisk analysis,evaluati
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