经营冒险的计划(1)

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Project Risk Managementor,Helping teams to take risks,1,Contents,Need/benefits of Risk Management,Definition of Risk,Philosophy of RiskManagement,IntegrationwithinIPM,Risk Quick Scan,Risk Diagnosis Methodology,Finalthoughts andadvice,2,Why Manage Risk?,“,In a rapidlychanging world,XXX needs tobe quicker to anticipatechange,faster toact and even moreenterprising.Currently,weare,too inward-lookingand possibly risk-averse.,To accelerate growth,XXX musthavethe look andfeelof anorganisationwitha single-minded passionfor winning.,”,”,3,Thereare six mandatories thatthe UEC insists that each andeveryOperating Companyabides by(whichmay besubject toAuditscrutiny):.,Thereis a formalprocess formonitoring risk.,The XXX IPMGuidelines,for Senior Management,4,What is Risk?,In English it is derivedfromthe early Italian,risacore-meaning todare,OxfordEnglish Dictionary:,Hazard,danger;exposure to mischance orperil,The chanceof hazard ofcommercialloss,consideredthe sourceof profit,5,Some peoples ideaof Risk Management,“,Zaphod.put on the sunglasses.They were a doublepair of JooJanta200 Super Chromatic Peril Sensitivesunglasses,whichhad been speciallydesigned tohelppeopledevelop a relaxedattitude todanger.Atthe first hint oftrouble they turntotally black andthusprevent youseeinganything that might harm you.,”,”,D Adams,“The Restaurantat the Endof theUniverse”,6,Topicsfor Discussion,What does risk mean to you?,What happensif you ignore risk?,Is risk goodor bad?,7,Food for Thought,“,And the trouble is,if you don,t risk anything,you risk even more.”,EricaJong,“Avoiding danger is no safer in thelong run than exposure.”,HelenKeller,“A ship in harbouris safe,but that,s notwhatshipsare built for.”,William Shedd,“Riskand reward travelside by side.Avoid oneand the other will alsopassyou by.”,Anon,“Halfthe failuresin life arise from pulling inoneshorseas itis leaping.,”,”,JuliusHare,You miss 100 percent ofthe shots you never take.,WayneGretzky,8,More Food for Thought,“,Experience is notwhat happensto you,itis what youdo with whathappens toyou.”,AldousHuxley,9,What lessonscan we learn fromthe real expertsin Risk Management,The Insurance industry?,Another Perspective,10,Definitionsin InsuranceIndustry,Risk is uncertainty,Speculativerisk:Chanceof gain orloss,Pure risk:Chanceof loss only,11,Loss:Negative impact ofan event,Peril:Causeof aloss,e.g.fire,windstorm,explosion,Hazard:Increaseschanceof loss,e.g.oily rags,unguarded machines,Definitionsin InsuranceIndustry,12,Risk Management inInsurance,“,Reducerisk”,Reduceuncertaintyof portfolio,e.g.increase scale,diversify,“Transfer risk”,Contracts,e.g.reinsurance,“Retain risk,”,”,Acceptresidual uncertainty,Theseare the responsibilitiesof the,underwriter!,13,“,Reducehazard”,Reduceprobabilityof loss,e.g.disposeoilyrags,“Reduce loss,”,”,Reduceimpact of loss,e.g.installsprinklers,Theseare the responsibilitiesof the,loss controlengineer!,Risk Management inInsurance,14,Lessons fromInsuranceIndustry,Goodportfoliomanagement,Balancedportfoliocanreducerisk,Goodprojectmanagement,Mustconsiderallpotentialproblems,Specialistscanreduceprobabilityofloss,Planningcanreduceimpactofloss,RiskisNEVEReliminated,15,HowisallthistobeappliedtoInnovationProcessManagement?,16,“,Everythingshouldbeassimpleaspossible,butnotsimpler.,”,”,AlbertEinstein,17,DefinitionsatProjectLevel,Risk,:probabilityoflossthroughtheoccurrenceofanundesiredevent,ProjectRisk,:potentialforanundesiredeventtocauseaprojectdelayorfailureandtermination(Wastedresourceand/orlostmarketopportunity),CorporateRisk,:potentialforaprojecttoleadtomaterialdamagetoabrandorthecorporation,18,IPMonRiskManagement,Balanceeffortwithdegreeofrisk,Level1:InitialRiskScreening,Level2:RiskQuickScan(RQS),Level3:RiskDiagnosisMethodology(RDM),AllprojectsrequireaRiskManagementPlan,19,Level1:InitialRiskScreening,Forrolloutprojectswithfamiliartechnologyandmaterials,only,Foursimplequestionstoconsider,Ifanyanswerisyes/uncertain,proceedtothenextlevelofanalysis-theRiskQuickScan.,BydefinitionResearchProjectsSTARTassessmentatRiskQuickScan,20,Level2:RiskQuickScan,Broadoverviewofallperilsandhazards,Qualitativeassessment,Usesconsistent,unambiguousdefinitions(anchoredscale),Ifcorporateriskishigh,proceedtonextlevelofanalysis(RDM),21,Level3:RiskDiagnosisMethodology,Thorough,in-depthanalysis,UsestrainedRiskAnalysisFacilitatortoguideprojectteam,Includesindividualinterviews,detailedquestionnaire,plenarysessiontodebateissuesanddevelopactionplans,22,ComparisonofRALevels,23,RiskManagementPlan:RequiredforLevels2&3,Trackriskissuesandactions,Helpteamsandgatekeepers,IncorporatedintoGatedocument,24,TheRiskQuickScan,(RQS),25,Who/whatshouldbepresentatanRQS,ProjectLeader,ProjectBrief,Projectteam,Expertadvice,RQSproforma,RQSanchoredscales,Facilitator?,26,WhentodoanRQS,Mandatory,thattheteamcompleteanRQSandactionplanbeforetheprojectcharterisgranted.,Reviewedatsubsequentgatesandmilestones.,Reviewedaft