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Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.,翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,George Lee,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction,李俊伟,November 2002Beijing,项目管理者联盟,MYPM.NET,Content,Emergence of ProjectPortfolio Management(PPM),Portfolio Managementin Financial Market,Overview of PPM,PPM,Process and Techniques,2,The Emergenceof Project PortfolioManagement,1952,Modern Portfolio Theory(MPT),HarryMarkowitz,Journal of Finance,PortfolioSelection,1990,Harry MarkowitzsharedNobelPrize,dominant approach used to manage risk andreturnwithinfinancial markets,1981,F.WarrenMcFarian,PortfolioApproach to Information Systems,HBR,to employ arisk-based approachto theselection andmanagement ofIT projects.,1990s,a broader useof ideas of portfoliomanagement,1998,John Thorp,TheInformation Paradox.Portfolio managementwas used to manage risk andmaximize return along a number ofdimensions.,Present,portfolio management as central elementsof good investment management,3,Portfolio Management,the overall picture,Focus,(Strategic,Planning),Source:PM Solutions,Portfolio Management,Dianne Bridges,Select,(Portfolio,Management),Manage,(Project,Management),4,Content,Emergence of ProjectPortfolio Management(PPM),Portfolio Managementin Financial Market,OverviewofPPM,PPM,Processand Techniques,5,TheOld PhilosophyaboutPortfolio,Dont put all your eggs in one basket.,Risk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait,inhumanbeings.,.,6,Returnand RiskinFinancial Market,expectedreturn,standarddeviation(%),capital appreciation,growth,ofincome,061218243036,20,18,16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2,0,income,inflation,T-bills,intermediate-term,government,bonds,long-term,government bonds,long-term,corporatebonds,largecompany stocks,small,company,stocks,stability,ofprincipal,7,TheRoleofCombiningSecurities,Theexpectedreturn of aportfolio is a,weightedaverage of thecomponentexpectedreturns.,8,TheRoleofCombiningSecurities,10,two-security,portfolio risk,=,risk,A,+risk,B,+,interactive,risk,Thetotalriskofa portfoliocomesfrom the,varianceofthecomponentsandfromtherelationshipsamongthecomponents.,.org.,TheRoleofCombiningSecurities,expectedreturn,risk,better,performance,A portfolio,dominates,allothers,ifnootherequally risky portfoliohasahigherexpectedreturn,orifnoportfoliowiththesameexpectedreturnhas lessrisk.,Thepointof,diversification,istoachieve a,givenlevelofexpectedreturnwhilebearingtheleastpossiblerisk.,10,TheEfficient Frontier:,Optimum DiversificationofRiskyAssets,expectedreturn,risk,(standarddeviation of returns),impossible,portfolios,dominated,portfolios,efficientfrontier,Theoptimalcombinationsresult in lowestlevelofrisk fora given return,Theoptimaltrade-offisdescribed as theefficientfrontier,11,TheEfficient Frontier vs Naive Diversification,Asportfoliosizeincreases,totalportfoliorisk,onaverage,declines.After acertainpoint,however,the marginal reductioninrisk fromthe addition of anothersecurityismodest.,totalrisk,Non-diversifiable,risk,numberofsecurities,Naivediversification,istherandom selection,ofportfoliocomponentswithout conductingany serioussecurityanalysis.,12,Risk Reductionwith Diversification,Number of Securities,St.Deviation,Market Risk,Unique Risk,13,Marketorsystematicrisk:risk relatedtothe macro economic factorormarketindex,Unsystematicorfirmspecificrisk:risknotrelatedtothemacrofactor or marketindex,Totalrisk=Systematic+Unsystematic,Components of Risk,14,Two-SecurityPortfolioswith DifferentCorrelations,=1,13%,%8,E(r),St.Dev,12%,20%,=.3,=-1,=-1,15,Relationshipdependsoncorrelationcoefficient,-1.0,+1.0,Thesmallerthecorrelation,thegreatertherisk reductionpotential,If,=+1.0,no riskreduction ispossible,Portfolio Risk/Return,Correlation Effects,16,Structuringa Portfolio:AssetAllocation,attitude,toward risk,need for,return,realized,return,and risk,with the,passage,of time,stocks,bonds,real,estate,cash,foreign,equities,Portfolio,ASSET,CLASSES,individual choiceasset classmixinvestmentresults,17,Content,Emergence ofProjectPortfolio Management(PPM),Portfolio ManagementinFinancial Market,OverviewofPPM,PPM,ProcessandTechniques,18,Whatisprojectportfolio management,Portfolio Managementistheprojectselection process and involves identifying opportunities:assessingtheorganizational fit;analyzing the costs,benefits,and risks;and developingandselecting aportfolio.,Theartof project portfoliomanagementis:doing the rightthing,selectingtheright mix of projects and adjustingastimeevolvesandcircumstances unfold.,19,Portfolio Managementis:,Defininggoals and objectives clearlyarticulate whattheportfolio isexpected toachieve,Understanding,accelerating,andmakingtradeoffs determine how much to investinonething asopposedtosomething else,Identifying,eliminating,minimizing,anddiversifying risk selecta mix ofinvestmentsthat will avoidundue risk,will not exceedacceptablerisktolerance leve
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