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,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,-,*,-,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,-,*,-,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,-,*,-,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,*,图解市场,罗宾,格里芬,Cazenove Capital Management Limited 12 Moorgate London EC2R 6DA Telephone+44(0)20 3479 1000 ,Registered Office 12 Moorgate London EC2R 6DA,R,egistered in England No 3017060,Authorised and r,egulated by the Financial Services Authority,Cazenove Capital Management Limited provides independent advice,-,1,-,古代世界地图,Source:,-,2,-,当代世界地图,Source:,-,3,-,未来世界地图,Source:,-,4,-,约瑟夫,熊彼特的三周期嵌套模式,-,5,-,长期有多长？,-,6,-,十年经济周期,(,朱格拉周期,),-4,-2,0,2,4,6,8,10,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,US REAL GDP(%YOY)NADJ,Ten year cycle lows,Source:Thomson Datastream,-,7,-,道琼斯工业指数,:,十年周期模式,1900-1999,70,90,110,130,150,170,190,210,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,Year,8,-,8,-,四年市场周期正好与美国大选周期重叠,Source:Thomson Datastream,-,9,-,大选周期：每年的经济表现,10,100,1000,10000,100000,Third Year,Election Year,Honeymoon Period,Reality Attack,Run up to next,election,Honeymoon Period,Reality Attack,Third Year,Election Year,Honeymoon Period,Reality Attack,Trend is more important than level,Data based on dow industrials,(Monthly data 1900-2006),-,10,-,历史上月平均股市回报,FTSE All Share Average%gains by month(1962-2005),3.09,0.90,0.79,2.59,-0.37,-0.69,-0.25,0.73,-0.69,0.16,0.60,1.64,-1.00,-0.50,0.00,0.50,1.00,1.50,2.00,2.50,3.00,3.50,January,February,March,April,May,June,July,August,September,October,November,December,Percentage Gain,Nikkei 225 Average%gain by month(1960-2005),1.03,0.77,0.24,-1.16,-0.46,-0.87,0.69,-0.04,1.19,1.69,0.70,3.03,-1.50,-1.00,-0.50,0.00,0.50,1.00,1.50,2.00,2.50,3.00,3.50,January,February,March,April,May,June,July,August,September,October,November,December,Percentage Gain,1.38,0.91,0.81,-0.75,0.10,-0.07,0.12,0.12,1.22,0.60,0.02,1.66,-1.00,-0.50,0.00,0.50,1.00,1.50,2.00,January,February,March,April,May,June,July,August,September,October,November,December,Percentage Gain,S&P 500 Average%gain by month(1964-2005),2.32,1.24,-0.40,-1.53,0.50,0.84,-0.33,0.73,-0.04,0.33,0.82,1.71,-2.00,-1.50,-1.00,-0.50,0.00,0.50,1.00,1.50,2.00,2.50,3.00,January,February,March,April,May,June,July,August,September,October,November,December,Percentage Gain,S&P/TSX Composite Average%gain by month(1969-2005),-,11,-,著名的钟形曲线，与另外两种不同的特性相结合,-,12,-,选出真实的市场,Source:,The misbehaviour of markets,Bernoit Mandelbrot,-,13,-,道琼斯工业指数：,1960-1980,400,500,600,700,800,900,1000,1100,1960,1962,1964,1966,1968,1970,1972,1974,1976,1978,1980,Dow Jones Industrial 1960-1980,200D Moving Average,-,14,-,道琼斯工业指数,1966-1982:,90,天美国商业票据,200,天移动平均值,-,15,-,人口金字塔模型,-600,-400,-200,0,200,400,600,Rapid Growth,-6,-4,-2,0,2,4,6,Slow Growth,-6,-4,-2,0,2,4,6,Zero Growth,-6,-4,-2,0,2,4,6,Negative Growth,-,16,-,印度人口结构,:2000,2025,和,2050,55-59,50-54,45-49,40-44,35-39,30-34,25-29,20-24,15-19,10-14,5-9,0-4,60-64,65-69,70-74,75-79,80+,100,50,0,50,100,Millions,2000,Male,Female,80+,75-79,70-74,65-69,60-64,0-4,5-9,10-14,15-19,20-24,25-29,30-34,35-39,40-44,45-49,50-54,55-59,100,50,0,50,100,Millions,2025,Male,Female,55-59,50-54,45-49,40-44,35-39,30-34,25-29,20-24,15-19,10-14,5-9,0-4,60-64,65-69,70-74,75-79,80+,100,50,0,50,100,Millions,2050,Male,Female,-,17,-,婴儿潮一代在美国人口金字塔当中的位置,:1960-2020,80+,75-79,70-74,65-69,60-64,0-4,5-9,10-14,15-19,20-24,25-29,30-34,35-39,40-44,45-49,50-54,55-59,20,10,0,10,20,Millions,1960,Male,Female,80+,75-79,70-74,65-69,60-64,0-4,5-9,10-14,15-19,20-24,25-29,30-34,35-39,40-44,45-49,50-54,55-59,20,10,0,10,20,Millions,1980,Male,Female,80+,75-79,70-74,65-69,60-64,0-4,5-9,10-14,15-19,20-24,25-29,30-34,35-39,40-44,45-49,50-54,55-59,20,10,0,10,20,Millions,2000,Male,Female,80+,75-79,70-74,65-69,60-64,0-4,5-9,10-14,15-19,20-24,25-29,30-34,35-39,40-44,45-49,50-54,55-59,20,10,0,10,20,Millions,2020,Male,Female,Baby Boom Cohort,Baby Boom Echo,-,18,-,英国人口结构：,2000,2025,和,2050,55-59,50-54,45-49,40-44,35-39,30-34,25-29,20-24,15-19,10-14,5-9,0-4,60-64,65-69,70-74,75-79,80+,5,3,1,1,3,5,Millions,2000,Male,Female,80+,75-79,70-74,65-69,60-64,0-4,5-9,10-14,15-19,20-24,25-29,30-34,35-39,40-44,45-49,50-54,55-59,5,3,1,1,3,5,Millions,2025,Male,Female,55-59,50-54,45-49,40-44,35-39,30-34,25-29,20-24,15-19,10-14,5-9,0-4,60-64,65-69,70-74,75-79,80+,5,3,1,1,3,5,Millions,2050,Male,Female,A,B,C,D,E,W,X,Y,Z=A,b,c,d,e,w,x,y,a,b,c,d,e,w,x,y,a,b,c,d,e,a,b,c,d,e,x,y,z,a,b,c,d,e,标准路线图,19,A,B,C,D,E,W,X,Y,Z=A,被现实向下趋势扭曲的标准路线图,20,A,B,C,D,E,W,X,Y,Z=A,被现实向上趋势扭曲的标准路线图,21,-,22,-,标普,500,指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-,23,-,富时,100,指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-,24,-,日经,225,指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-,25,-,德国,DAX 30,指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-,26,-,希腊,Athex,综合指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-,27,-,印度,Sensex 30,指数,Source:Thomson
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