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,#,目录,涤纶长丝及其上游行业相关数据,6,涤纶长丝行业现有产能及新增产能情况,8,涤纶,长,丝,行,业,现,有,产,能,梳,理,8,涤纶,长,丝,行,业,未,来,产,能,增,量梳理,9,涤纶,长,丝,行,业,产,能,市,占,率,变化,11,涤纶长丝,POY,子行业现有产能及新增产能情况,11,涤纶,长,丝,P,O,Y,子,行,业,现,有,产能,梳,理,11,涤纶,长,丝,P,O,Y,子,行,业,未,来,产能,增,量,梳,理,12,涤纶,长,丝,P,O,Y,子,行,业,产,能,市占,率,变化,13,涤纶长丝,F,DY,子行,业,现有产能及新增产能情况,14,涤纶,长,丝,F,D,Y,子,行,业,现有,产能,梳,理,14,涤纶,长,丝,F,D,Y,子,行,业,未来,产能,增,量,梳,理,14,涤纶,长,丝,F,D,Y,子,行,业,产能,市占,率,变化,15,涤纶长丝,DTY,子行,业,现有产能及新增产能情况,16,涤纶,长,丝,D,T,Y,子,行,业,现有,产能,梳,理,16,涤纶,长,丝,D,T,Y,子,行,业,未来,产能,增,量,梳,理,17,涤纶,长,丝,D,T,Y,子,行,业,产能,市占,率,变化,18,涤纶长丝行业集中度现在及未来三年情况,18,涤纶,长,丝,行,业,及,其,子行,业,C,R,7,变化,18,涤纶长丝行业集中度高的内在原因,19,涤纶,长,丝,生,产,研,发,现,状,19,建议关注,21,桐昆,股,份,21,恒逸,石,化,22,新凤鸣,23,1,图表,1,：,图表,2,：,图表,3,：,图表,4,：,图表,5,：,图表,6,：,图表,7,：,图表,8,：,图表,9,：,图表,10,：,图表,11,：,图表,12,：,图表,13,：,图表,14,：,图表,15,：,图表,16,：,图表,17,：,图表,18,：,图表,19,：,图表,20,：,图表,21,：,图表,22,：,图表,23,：,图表,24,：,图表,25,：,图表,26,：,图表,27,：,图表,28,：,图表,29,：,图表,30,：,图表,31,：,图表,32,：,图表,33,：,图表,34,：,图表,35,：,图表,36：,图表,37,：,图表,38,：,图表,39,：,图表,40,：,图表,41,：,图表,42：,图表,43,：,图表,44,：,图表,45,：,图表,46,：,图表,47：,2,图表目录,涤纶,长,丝,行,业,产,业链,6,涤纶,长,丝,上,游,P,T,A,行,业,价,格价差,6,涤纶,长,丝,P,O,Y,子,行,业,价,格,价差,6,涤纶,长,丝,P,O,Y,-,聚,酯,切,片,价,差图,7,涤纶,长,丝,国,内,年,度,表,观,消,费量,与,增速,7,涤纶,长,丝,月,度,产,量,及,进,出,口量,8,我国,涤,纶,长,丝,现,有,主,要,产,能,（,2,0,1,9,.,1,1,）,8,目前,我,国,涤,纶,长,丝,产,能,格,局,9,涤纶,长,丝,未,来,开,工,率,有,望,上行,9,涤纶,长,丝,新,增,产,能,情,况,10,涤 纶,长,丝,现,有,产,能,分,产,品,品类,分,布,格,局,10,2,0,1,9,年,我,国,涤,纶,长,丝,产能,格局,10,2,0,2,0,年,我,国,涤,纶,长,丝,产能,格局,10,2,0,2,1,年,我,国,涤,纶,长,丝,产,能,格局,11,涤纶,长,丝,行,业,前,七,名,市,占,率变,化,情况,11,我国,涤,纶,长,丝,P,O,Y,子,行,业,现有,产,能,（,20,19,.,1,1,）,12,目前,我,国,涤,纶,长,丝,P,O,Y,子,行业,产,能,格,局,12,2,0,1,9,年,我,国,P,O,Y,子,行,业,产,能格局,13,2,0,2,0,年,我,国,P,O,Y,子,行,业产,能格局,13,2,0,2,1,年我,国,P,O,Y,子,行,业,产,能格局,13,涤纶,长,丝,P,O,Y,子,行,业,前,七,名市,占,率,变,化,情,况,13,我国,涤,纶,长,丝,F,D,Y,子,行业,现有,产,能,（,20,19,.,1,1,）,14,目前,我,国,涤,纶,长,丝,F,D,Y,子,行业,产,能,格,局,14,2,0,1,9,年,我,国,F,D,Y,子,行,业产,能格局,15,2,0,2,0,年,我,国,F,D,Y,子,行,业产,能格局,15,2,0,2,1,年我,国,F,D,Y,子,行,业产,能格局,15,涤纶,长,丝,F,D,Y,子,行,业,前七,名市,占,率,变,化,情,况,16,我国,涤,纶,长,丝,D,T,Y,子,行业,现有,产,能,（,20,19,.,1,1,）,16,目前,我,国,涤,纶,长,丝,D,T,Y,子,行业,产,能,格,局,17,2,0,1,9,年,我,国,DT,Y,子,行,业产,能格局,17,2,0,2,0,年,我,国,DT,Y,子,行,业产,能格局,17,2,0,2,1,年我,国,D,T,Y,子,行,业,产,能格局,18,涤纶,长,丝,D,T,Y,子,行,业,前八,名市,占,率,变,化,情,况,18,涤纶,长,丝,行,业,及,其,子行,业,C,R,7,变,化,情,况,19,全球,主,要,卷,绕,头,生,产,厂,家,产品,参,数,20,欧瑞,康,巴,马,格,纺,纱,系,统,20,荣盛,石,化,新,升,级,的,纺,纱,系,统,21,公司,营,业,收,入,变,化,与,增速,22,公司,归,母,净,利,润,变,化,与,增,速,22,公司,期,间,费,率,情,况,22,公司,分,产,品,毛,利,率,情,况,22,桐昆,股,份,盈,利,预,测,22,公司,营,业,收,入,变,化,与,增速,23,公司,归,母,净,利,润,变,化,与,增,速,23,公司,期,间,费,率,情,况,23,公司,分,产,品,毛,利,率,情,况,23,恒逸,石,化,盈,利,预,测,24,3,图表,48,：,图表,49,：,图表,50,：,图表,51,：,图表,52：,公司,营,业,收,入,变,化,与,增速,24,公司,归,母,净,利,润,变,化,与,增,速,24,公司,期,间,费,率,情,况,25,公司,分,产,品,毛,利,率,情,况,25,新凤,鸣,盈,利,预测,25,2019,年涤纶长丝产品盈,利,较好，涤纶长丝行,业,新,增,产能主要来自龙 头,，,行业集,中,度提升,，,竞,争格局趋好,。,市场对涤,纶,长丝领域的现有产 能格局以及未来的,产,能,增,量说法很多,，,在目前情,况,下,，,涤纶长丝产能 增量究竟有多少？,同,时,，,我们方正化工认为,，,涤,纶,长丝的细分品种,（,POYFDYDTY,）,存,在,不可互相替代性,，,如果,我,们把这些细分品种 单独来看,，,各个细分子,行,业里面的集中度怎样,，,各,个涤纶长丝企业是 否会成为各自子行,业,里,面,的龙头？这是否会,真,正,体,现出各个涤纶长 丝企业的差异性？,在本,文,中,，,我,们,从,市,场,上,的多,种,数,据,库,，,各,公,司,的,公告,及,官,网,查,找,资 料数,据,，,全,面,梳,理,涤,纶,长,丝及,其,子,行,业,的,产,能,情,况,并将,其,汇,总,，,以,全 面,、,可,靠,的,依,据,在,给,大家,呈现,出,在,目,前,的,时,间,节,点,上涤,纶,长,丝,及,其,子 行业,较,为,真,实,、,全,面,的,现,有产,能,及,未,来,新,增,产,能,的,情况,，,我,们,希,望,能 通过,这,一,篇,文,章,，,统,一市,场上,关,于,涤,纶,长,丝,及,其,子,行业,现,有,产,能,及,未 来增,量,的,口,径。,1,涤,纶,长,丝及,其,上,游,行业,相,关,数,据,2019,年,PTA,与,涤,纶,长,丝平,均价,差,回,升,，,开,工,率,高,位,，行,业,集,中,度提 高,，,竞,争,格,局,好转,，,以,桐,昆股份,、,新,凤,鸣,为,代,表的,国内,涤,纶,龙,头,，,充 分受,益,。,PX,醋酸,PTA,MEG,POY,FDY,DTY,POY,FDY,DTY,纱线,聚酯 切片,图表,1,：,涤纶,长,丝,行,业,产,业链,POY,DTY,P,X,熔体直纺,PTA,FDY,醋,酸,纺织业,MEG,POY,聚酯,DTY,切片纺丝,切片,FDY,资,料来,源,：方,正,证券,研,究所,图表,2,：,涤纶,长,丝,上,游,PTA,行,业,价,格价差,图表,3,：,涤纶,长,丝,POY,子,行,业,价格,价差,资,料来,源,：,Wi,n,d,，方,正,证券,研,究所,资,料来,源,：,Wi,n,d,，方,正,证券,研,究所,4,图表,4,：,涤纶,长,丝,POY-,聚酯,切,片,价,差图,资,料来,源,：,Wi,n,d,，方,正,证券,研,究所,0%,2%,4%,6%,8%,10%,0,500,1,000,1,500,2,000,我们,方,正,化,工,认,为,，,POY,有望,成,为,未,来,化,纤,产,业,链,的瓶,颈,，,POY,盈 利可,持,续,。,以,桐,昆,、,新凤,鸣为,代,表,的,涤,纶,长,丝,龙,头,企业,规,模,效,应,将,更,加明显。,在,对涤纶,长,丝,行,业集中度,分,析的过,程,中,，,我们发现,，近,40,家国,内,生,产,涤,纶,长,丝,的,企,业中,，,按,产,能,排,序,，,前十,名以,内,的,企,业,产,能,大于,100,万,吨,，,二,十,名,开,外的,企,业,产,能,已,经,低,于,30,万,吨,。,其,中,具体,到,POY,子,行,业,现,有,产,能,，,龙头,企,业,POY,产,能,高,于中,小企,业,一,个,数量 级,，,使,得,前,者,在,规,模,优势,的前,提下,，,综,合,成,本,低,，,现金,流,较,充足,，,行 业议,价,能,力,显,著,，,进,而,出,现强,者,恒,强,、,强,者,愈,强,的,态势。,图表,5,：,涤纶,长,丝,国,内,年,度,表,观,消,费量,与,增速,国内年度表观消费量,增速,3,500,18%,3,000,16%,14%,2,500,12%,201,3,201,4,201,5,201,6,201,7,201,8,201,9,资,料来,源,：中,纤,网，,方,正证,券,研究所,涤纶,长,丝,整,体,产,能增速,2020/2021,为,+3.3%/+6.0%,，,POY,产,能,增,速,为,+5.9%/+4.4%,。,2019,年,，,受,到国,内,需,求,限,制,以,及,中,美,贸易,战,出,口,限,制,，,涤纶长,丝,产量,增,速放,缓,。涤纶,长,丝表,观,消费,量,增,速,2018/2019,为,+12.3%/+6.1%,。,综,合看来，,我,们认为,+6.1%,已经是底,部,增速，且,该,需 求增,速,依,然,大,于,产,能,扩,张,增速。,5,图表,6,：,涤纶,长,丝,月,度,产,量,及,进,出,口量,资,料来,源,：中,纤,网，,方,正证,券,研究所,2,涤,纶,长,丝行,业,现,有,产能,及,新,增,产能,情,况,2.1,涤纶长丝行业现有,产,能,梳,理,根据,我,们,方,正,化,工,的,梳,理,，,截,至,2019,年,11,月,，,我,国涤,纶,长,丝,行,业,现 有名,义,产,能合,计,3192,万吨,，,CR7,为,69.0%,。,图表,7,：,我国,涤,纶,长,丝,现,有,主,要,产,能,（,2019.11,）,公司,目前名义产能,（万吨/年,）,桐昆股份,585,恒逸石化,500,新凤鸣,417,东方盛虹,226,福建百宏,173,恒力石化,155,荣盛石化,145,浙江天圣,130,开氏集团,115,浙江绿宇,62,三房巷,40,其他,644,合计,3192,资,料来,源,：公,司,公告,，,方正,证,券研,究,所,6,图表,8,：,目前,我,国,涤,纶,长,丝,产,能,格,局,资,料来,源,：公,司,公告,，,方正,证,券,研,究,所,2
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