时间数列分析(PPT 37页)dpps

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,-,*,-,Time Series Analysis,Benefits and Uses of Time Series,Benefits of time series,Monitor sales performance over time remove variation in monthly sales caused by calendar differences and seasonality that can conceal potential problems with sales,Accurately determine the direction and rate of growth/decline in sales,Quickly identify changes in sales trends and correlate them to factors affecting sales industry,company,competition,Improve decision making regarding sales and marketing actions,Uses of time series,Assess current sales performance and evaluate the effectiveness of sales programs,Determine underlying sales trend and project year end sales,Establish appropriate budgets for next year and estimate monthly budget spreads,Time series analysis is the primary sales analysis technique at A-B,2024/10/3,2,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,Time Series Analysis,What is Time Series Analysis?,How are Time Series plots developed?,What are the advantages of Time Series Analysis?,What are Time Series used for?,2024/10/3,3,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,What is Time Series Analysis?,Time series analysis is a statistical technique used to analyze and monitor sales volume over time.,2024/10/3,4,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,Why Time Series?,Beer sales are highly seasonal,It is very difficult to evaluate monthly sales over time.,2024/10/3,5,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,How do time series work?,Monthly variation in sales is caused by two major factors,Seasonality,Selling Days(calendar effects),Time Series technique statistically removes the effects of these two factors,Time Series technique uses the X-11 procedure for seasonal adjustments,The X-11 procedure was developed by the U.S.Bureau of Census in the 1950s.It was brought to A-B in the early 1960s and has become the standard for reporting sales.,2024/10/3,6,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,How do time series adjust sales?,A selling day adjustment factor for each month is computed and applied to the raw sales,This factor allows you to compare months as if they had the same number of selling days e.g.accurately compare the June this year vs.June last year,A seasonal factor is computed and applied to the selling day adjusted sales,This factor,when applied,gives you monthly data directly comparable to any other month e.g.accurately compare June this year with May this year,2024/10/3,7,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,Selling Days,All other things being equal,sales in Aug-03 would decrease 4.8%because of one less selling day.In order to compare the two months Aug-03 sales will have to be adjusted up+4.8%.,2024/10/3,8,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,Seasonality,Seasonality is expressed as an index for a month compared to an average month.,A month where sales were 20%higher than average would have a seasonal factor of 120.,A month which was 10%lower than average would have a seasonal factor of 90.,Strong Seasonality,No Seasonality,2024/10/3,9,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,Adjusting Sales,Raw Sales X Selling Day Factor Seasonal Factor,Seasonally Adjusted Sales=,2024/10/3,10,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,How do time series work?,Raw Sales,Selling Day Adjusted,Seasonally Adjusted,2024/10/3,11,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,Dissecting a Time Series Plot,Annualized Sales,tells us how big the market is.,Trend Line,tells us the direction of sales based on past&present performance,Irregular variations,shows us the impact of market place actions,STRs;Ontario STCs,Data Description,tells us the type of data plotted,2024/10/3,12,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,Advantages of Time Series,Advantages of time series:,Removes variation in monthly sales caused by calendar differences and seasonality,Help us to accurately estimate the,direction,and,rate,of sales growth/decline,They are an improvement over other methods such as year-over-year growth or moving averages because they show us what is happening sooner an early warning of changing sales conditions,Time series significantly improve decision making,Allows us to take corrective action sooner,Allows us to take the,right,corrective action,Helps to establish appropriate sales objectives,2024/10/3,13,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,Advantages of Time Series,If the time series shows a relative smooth pattern from one year to the next the trend and the year over year growth would provide roughly the same reading.,But,if there was a significant market event or change,the year over year trends will be misleading,+50%,2024/10/3,14,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,Misleading Growth Rates,0%,+21%,2024/10/3,15,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,More Misleading Growth Rates,-21%,+15%,2024/10/3,16,O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt,What are time series used for?,At A-B we use time series to,Assess current sales performance,Develop current year sales projectionsPYE(projected year-end),Forecast next year sales develop budgets and monthly spreads,Ot