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Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,#,Click to edit Master title style,Global Oil Markets Outlook,Vandana Hari,Asia,Editorial Director,28 May 2019,Shanghai,2,Enabling the markets to perform with greater,Transparency&Efficiency,Since,Platts An introduction,New York,Denver,Washington,Houston,Buenos Aires,London,Moscow,Dubai,Beijing,Tokyo,Shanghai,Hong Kong,Singapore,Evergreen,Boston,Hightstown,Pittsburgh,So Paulo,Lausanne,Platts An introduction,Cape Town,Houston,ARA,(Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp),Singapore,Platts An Introduction,Key global crude and oil products benchmarks,including Brent and Dubai,Intelligence on oil,petrochemicals,metals,gas&power,agricultural markets,Editorial and market assessments are conducted,with complete,Independence&Impartiality,Agenda,5,Oil prices End to volatility?,-What fundamentals and geopolitics tell us,US shale boom,-The impact on global oil flows,so far and going forward,Redefining refining,-Sector in a major flux globally,Global Oil Markets:Stable On The Surface,6,Source:Platts Dated Brent assessments,Demand Stabilization Anchoring Crude,7,Source:Platts analysis of quarterly historic and forecast demand from OPECs Monthly Oil Market Report(January 2019)and IEAs Oil Market Report(January 2019),Global Crude Markets Finely Balanced,8,Source:Platts,Dated Brent assessments,Annual Demand Growth=1 million b/d,New Crude Supplies From US,Iraq,Africa,US Crude Export Policy,Marginal Cost Of Tight Oil,OPEC Coordination,?,Easing Iran Sanctions,Oil Markets Find Stable Evolutionary Curve,The mood at Platts 7,th,Global Crude Oil Summit May 13-14,9,China In An Oil Recession,10,Economy losing steam;inventories piling up;major stimulus measures seen unlikely,Growth becoming less oil-intensive,Oil demand between Oct,2019-Mar,2019,declined,1,%,Gasoil,naphtha consumption shrinking,more than offsets rise in gasoline demand,Downside Risks To Global Demand Growth,11,Source:IEA,Demand:IEA,projects 1.3,mil b/d growth for,2019,Too optimistic?,CHINA,:Oil demand growth slowing down faster than GDP,INDIA,:Annual growth in consumption cools to 1%,RUSSIA,:Ukraine tensions and sanctions dampen economic outlook,Outages Dont Rattle Markets Any More,Libyan output slumped to around 200,000 b/d(versus 1.6 mil b/d capacity),Unrest,attacks on infrastructure curb crude production in Nigeria,Iraq,Libya,Sudan,12,Nigeria,Nearly 4 mil b/d of production reduced or under constant threat,But OPEC output remains mostly,below 30 mil b/d“ceiling”since last Sep;Saudi pulls back from 10 mil b/d peak,Plenty Of New Supply,Led by N.America,ON THE OPEC FRONT:,Iran could raise output by 1 mil b/d within 6 months if sanctions lifted;aims for 5 mil b/d output by 2018,Iraq production is on a strong ascent 3.4 mil b/d in Feb,highest since 1979,Will OPEC be able to respond if there is a supply glut?,13,Non-OPEC supply,growing at its strongest,in decades,Source:IEA,US Shale Bonanza,The Impact On Global Oil Flows So Far And Going Forward,US Tight Oil Boom Light,Sweet Surplus,15,9.6 mil b/d,2020:Nearly half the output will be tight oil,Most tight oil is light/ultra light sweet crude/condensate,Nearly 2 mil b/d of excess light sweet crude foreseen,2019,US Produces More Crude Than It Imports,16,Source:,EIA,Production,Imports,Average Daily US Imports By Supplier,17,Source:EIA,Canada,Colombia Boost Exports To US,18,Canada,Colombia,Imports from Africa light,sweet grades from Nigeria,Algeria,Angola,down 90%,from 2 mil b/d in 2019 to 170,000 b/d in Jan-Apr 2019,Imports of Canadian,crude,jumped,70%from 2019 to average 2.7 mil b/d this year,Imports of Colombian,crude,doubled,from 2019 to 300,000 b/d this year,US TO ALLOW CRUDE EXPORTS?,UNLIKELY,！,Surplus To Find Its Way Out As Products,19,New,condensate splitters,coming on stream Nearly 475,000 b/d new capacity over the next 2 years(source:Platts Bentek),New,ethane crackers,being built,Around,12 mil mt/year of new ethylene capacity planned to come on stream by,2020,Nearly 50%capacity growth in both,Unprecedented boom in US oil,gas infrastructure,US Oil Product Exports Vault Over 3 Mil B/D,20,GASOIL,GASOLINE,LPG,NAPHTHA,PLANT CONDENSATE,Redefining Refining,Sector In Major Flux Globally,Oil Markets In Three Very Different Worlds,22,Crude:Insularity,Products:Export expansion,Crude:Contraction,Products:Import expansion,Crude and products,More supply/More demand,Refining Sector Tilts To Overcapacity,23,Japan,Australia,Europe(?),China,Middle East,India,US,Africa,Latin America(?),Japan Contracts,But Major“Sinks”in SE Asia,Japan,20%reduction in capacity from 2019 peak of 4.9 mil b/d;more cuts likely by 2019,Major product“sinks”in Southeast Asia:,Indonesia,About 500-600,000 b/d;could double by 2020,Australia,About 375,000 b/d;seen rising to 700,000 b/d by 2019,Vietnam,About 180,000 b/d;could vanish around 2020 if refining capacity rises,24,China Refining Overcapacity,Downstream additions surpass demand growth,Some 4 mil b/d excess capacity seen by 2019,Capacity
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