[精选]Ch05_服装市场调研与预测5951

*,Marketing for Hospitality and Tourism,3e2003 Pearson Education,Inc.,Philip Kotler,John Bowen,James MakensUpper Saddle River,NJ 07458,*,Chapter 5,服装营销调研与预测,Marketing Research And Forecasting,1,5.1 市场营销信息系统的构成,The Components of Marketing Information System,5.1.1 营销信息系统的概念,The Concept of M IS,营销信息系统,由人、设备和程序组成，它为营销决策者收集、挑选、分析、评估和分配需要的、及时的和准确的信息。,A,marketing information system(M IS),consists of people,equipment,and procedures to gather,sort,analyze,evaluate,and distribute needed,timely,and accurate information to marketing decision makers.,2,Marketing Information System,Information,Analysis,Internal,Databases,Marketing,Research,Marketing,Intelligence,Distributing,Information,Assessing Information,Needs,Marketing Managers,Marketing Environment,Marketing Decisions and Communications,The Marketing Information System,Developing Information,3,5.1.2 营销信息系统的构成,The Components of Marketing Information System,营销决策,支持系统,Marketing Decision,Support System,营销调研系统,Marketing,Research System,营销情报系统,Marketing,Intelligence,System,内部报告系统,Internal Records,System,4,1.内部报告系统,Internal Records System,订单收款循环,The Order-to-Payment Cycle,(Wal-mart),销售信息系统,Sales Information System,5.1.2,The Components of Marketing Information System,5,2.营销情报系统,Marketing Intelligence System,营销情报系统,是使公司经理获得日常的关于营销环境发展的恰当信息的一整套程序和来源。,A,marketing intelligence system,is a set of procedures and sources used by managers to obtain everyday information about developments in the marketing environment.,5.1.2,The Components of Marketing Information System,6,3.营销调研系统,Marketing Research System,营销调研,是系统的设计、收集、分析和提出数据资料以及提出公司所面临的特定营销状况有关的调查研究结果。,Marketing research,is the systematic design,collection,analysis,and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company.,（,营销调研步骤见7.2),5.1.2,The Components of Marketing Information System,7,4.营销决策支持系统,Marketing Decision Support System,营销决策支持系统,是一个组织，它通过软件与硬件支持，协调数据收集、系统、工具和技术，解释企业内部和外部环境的有关信息，并把它转化为营销活动的基础。,A,marketing decision support system(MDSS),is a coordinated collection of data,systems,tools,and techniques with supporting software and hardware by which an organization gathers and interprets relevant information from business and environment and turns it into a basis for marketing action.,5.1.2,The Components of Marketing Information System,8,5.2,营销调研的步骤,The Marketing Research Process,确定问题和调研目标,Defining the problem and research objectives,制定调研计划,Developing the research plan for collecting information,执行调研计划收集和分析信息,Implementing the research plan-collecting and analyzing the data,陈述研究发现,Interpreting and reporting the findings,9,Step 1.,确定问题和调研目标,Defining the Problem&Research Objectives,探测性调研,Exploratory,Research,描述性调研,Descriptive,Research,因果性调研,Causal,Research,Test hypotheses about cause-,and-effect relationships.,Gathers preliminary information,that will help define the problem,and suggest hypotheses.,Describes things as market,potential for a product or the,demographics and consumers,attitudes.,10,Step 2.,制定调研计划,Develop the Research Plan,Research plan development follows these steps:,资料来源,Data sources,调研方法,Research approaches,调研工具,Research instrument,抽样计划,Sampling plan,11,(1),Develop the Research Plan-,Data Sources,资料来源,Gathering Secondary Information,二手资料,Information That Already Exists Somewhere.+Obtained More Quickly,Lower Cost.-Might Not be Usable Data.,Secondary,Both Must Be:,相关的,Relevant,准确的,Accurate,及时的,Current,客观的,Impartial,一手资料,Information Collected for the Specific Purpose at Hand.,Primary,12,(2),Develop the Research Plan-,Research Approaches,调研方法,Planning Primary Data Collection,观察法,Observational Research,Gathering data by observing people,actions and situations,(Exploratory),实验法,Experimental Research,Using groups of people to,determine cause-and-effect,relationships,(Causal),访问法,Survey Research,Asking individuals about attitudes,preferences or,buying behaviors,(Descriptive),Most Widely Used Form,13,Planning Primary Data Collection,Contact Methods,14,(3),Develop the Research Plan-,Research Instruments,调研工具,问卷,Questionnaires,15,(4),Develop the Research Plan-,Sampling Plans,抽样计划,Planning Primary Data Collection,抽样单位,Who is to be,surveyed?,(What Sampling,Unit?),样本量,How many,should be,surveyed?,抽样程序,How should the,sample be,chosen?,抽样方法,Probability or,Non-probability,sampling?,Sample-,representative,segment of the,population,16,收集信息,Collecting the,Data,加工信息,Processing the,Data,分析信息,Analyzing the,Data,Research Plan,Step 3.,执行调研计划,Implementing the Research Plan,Most Expensive&Subject to Error,17,Step 4.,陈述研究发现,Interpreting and Reporting Findings,调研者应提出对管理决策有用的重要发现。,Researcher Should Present Important Findings that are Useful in the Major Decisions Faced by Management.,Step 1.,解释发现,Interpret the Findings,Step 2,.,得出结果,Draw Conclusions,Step 3.,向管理层报告,Report to Management,18,5.3 市场需求的测量与预测,Demand Measurement and Forecasting,市场需求的测量,The measures of Market Demand,测量哪个市场？,Which Market to Measure?,需求测量的有关词汇,A Vocabulary for Demand Measurement,估计目前市场需求,Estimating Current Demand,估计未来需求,Es