国际贸易理论与实务（英文）

,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,International Trade Theory and Policy,School of Economics, Yunnan University,Zhang Jianhua and Zhang Lin,1,Chap. 1 Introduction,One. Course Outline,Basic theory in Economics ( Analysis of commodity and factor mobility in open Macro economy by tools Microeconomics,Contents:,Pure Theory in International Trade ( Reason and Influence of International Trade),Policy of International Trade,（,Policies aiming at limiting imports while encouraging exports,）,Institutions for International Trade,（,WTO Institutions,）,2,Two Basic Concepts,balance of trade,Trade Surplus,（,Exports,Imports,，,Favorable Balance of Trade,）,Trade Deficit,（,Exports,Imports,，,Unfavorable Balance of Trade,）,Trade Balance,（,Exports,Imports,）,Trade Structure,Commodity Structure,Geographical Structure,Dependency of Trade,2004,、,2005,年,中国的贸易收支,2004,年中国对外贸易依存度,接近,70%,2005,年中国主要进出口商品,3,Chap. 3 Comparative Cost and Classical Trade Theorem,In this chapter, we introduce theorem of international trade. We start such introduction looking at causes of international trade and its influences in the economy ( in Chap 3, 4, 5 and 6), then we will analyze the influences of economics in trade.,One, Theory of Absolute Cost,Theory of absolute cost,It is a theoretical explanation to the cause of international trade,Introduced by Adam Smith in his “ Wealth of Nations”,4,Graph of Absolute Cost,Unit Cost Calculated in terms of labor,UK Portugal,Carpet,Wine,4,8,6,3,Each country produces goods absolutely low in cost, in exchange for other countries goods absolutely low in cost,Trade based on division of labor,Reason of trade is because of differences in absolute cost,Could countries have trade without absolute differences in cost?,5,Chap 3. 2. Comparative Cost,David Ricardo,，,1817,Background,谷物法,Cultivation of wheat expands, land of grass shrinks, and price of wool goes up,小麦价格上涨,Labor is more expansive,Food expend increases, end goods expend decreases,Revenge from other countries, export of end products decrease,损害了资产阶级的利益,要求自由贸易,6,Case of Ricardian Model,Unit Cost Calculated in terms of labor,Britain Portugal,Carpet,Wine,4,8,6,10,Assumptions,：,Two nations, two products, one factor, fixed productivity, sufficient employment, perfect competition, non-mobility of factor, barter, no technological improvement, no transportation cost,The absolute costs of both products in Britain is lower than that in Portugal, why is there still trade between these two countries,7,A necessary condition of international trade: Comparative cost difference,两利相权取其重，两弊相权取其轻,A sufficient condition of international trade: international exchange rate is between domestic exchange rates in both countries.,There is benefit from trade,Limitation,：,Why there is comparative cost,？,8,Chap3. 3. Classical trade model based on comparative cost,Used to explain,：,Reasons and influences of trade ( Price, Production, Consumption and Welfare.,1, Analysis Tools,1) Production Possibility Curve,The maximum production when factors are fully employed.,A,（,0,，,100,）,B,（,100,，,0,）,O,X,Y,C,（,X,1,，,Y,1,）,9,Property of Production Possibility Curve,Slope of PPC is equal to marginal opportunity cost,A,B,5,4,3,4,O,X,Y,The cost of giving up one benefit for getting another,Maximum cost may not be optimum production. We have to introduce indifference curve in order to get optimum production.,10,2, Indifference Curve,The different products combination that can bring same satisfaction to consumers.,O,X,Y,A,（,10,，,40,）,B,（,25,，,15,）,U,A,=U,B,Property of Indifference Curve:,There are many indifference curve,Further from origin means more utility level,Never cross with each other,Concave,Negative Slope,11,The combination of PPC and Indifference Curve: Equilibrium( Optimum ) Production and Consumption,O,X,Y,E,A,C,B,U,0,U,2,U,1,ineffective,Impossible,Maximum production, but utility less than E,Equilibrium point,：,Maximum production, maximum utility,12,3, Exchange Rate ( Comparative price and Trade condition,O,Y,X,A,B,C,D,E,1X = 1Y,1X = 2Y,3X = 3Y,The exchange rate is equal to the slope of the line,The key of exchange rate line is its slope, not the position. For example, AB and DE is in different position but has same slope,13,二、贸易前均衡,开展国际贸易前，一国国内的生产和消费状况,Y,X,O,B,A,T,生产可能性曲线,边际机会成本为,1X = 1Y,交换比率线,交换比率为,1X = 2Y,X,产量扩大,X,价格下跌，比如：,1X = 1.5Y,国内均衡时，生产可能性曲线与交换比率线重合，实现完全专业化生产,14,根据生产可能性曲线的斜率判断一国的比较优势,Y,X,O,B,A,Y,X,O,B,1,A,1,A,国,B,国,1X = 1Y,相对于,B,国而言，,X,成本更低,1X = 3Y,相对于,A,国而言，,X,成本更高，,Y,成本更低,15,Three, Classical Trade Model ( One Factor ),Y,X,O,A,B,Y,X,O,C,D,T,T,1X = 1Y,1X = 3Y,Price of X falls in international market, and Price of Y also falls, finally reaches an equilibrium price, say, T(1X=2Y),National A,National B,16,Influence of International Trade,Y,X,O,A,B,Y,X,O,C,D,T,T,E,J,U,0,U,1,U,0,U,1,F,M,Price: X ( more comparative advantage ) raised,Production,：,Production of X expanded ( Perfect specialization ),Consumption: consumption combination is in higher-position indifference curve, better trade off,X in Nation A:,Production OB, Consumption OX0, Surplus X0B( Export ),Y in Nation A:,Production: 0, Consumption OY0 ( imports),X,0,Y,0,X in nation B Production 0, consumption OX1( Imports),Y in nation,Production OC, Consumption OY1, surplus Y1C,X,1,Y,1,17,Chap. 4, Mutual Demands Theory,Used to explain how exchange rate is fixed, and how it varies.,One, Terms of Trade,T,=,P,X,P,M,Price Index of exports,Price Index of Imports,T,：,Improvement of trade condition: each unit of export can exchange for more imports,T,：,Deterioration of trade condition: each unit of export exchanges for less imports,18,Changes in Terms of Trade,Y,X,O,T,0,T,1,T,2,T,3,X,0,Y,0,Y,1,Y,2,Y,3,Improvement of Trade Condition in A,Y,X,O,T,3,T,2,T,1,T,0,Y,0,X,0,X,1,X,2,X,3,Improvement of Trade Condition in,B,19,Offer Curve,O,X,X,Y,T,0,T,1,T,2,U,0,U,1,U,2,C,A,B,E,F,G,L,M,N,X,0,X,1,X,2,Y,0,Y,1,Y,2,T,0,：,Export,LA,（,= OX,0,），,Import EL,（,= OY,0,）,T,1,：,Ex,MB,（,= OX,1,），,Im,FM,（,= OY,1,）,T,2,：,EX,NC,（,= OX,2,），,Im,GN,（,= OY,2,）,T,2,T,1,T,0,Offer Curve,Each point along offer curve means the equilibrium import and export in certain exchange rate,20,General Equilibrium in International Trade,O,X,Y,A,B,T,T,1,A,1,X,0,X,1,Y,0,Y,1,Equilibrium international exchange rate,Improvement of trade condition for,（,That of B fixed,）,Offer Curve of A moves left,Exports decrease greatly, but exchanged imports stay unchanged,21,Chap 5, Factor Endowment,Used to solve problems left behind by Ricardo: Reasons for comparative cost difference,Put forward by Swedish Economists Heckscher and Ohiler, so it is also call the Heckscher-Ohlin model, or H-O model, also known as factor endowment theory.,It offers good explaining to international trade, so still works as main stream theory in international trade.,22,Chap5. 1.,Heckscher-Ohlin Model,One, Assumptions,1. Two nations, two products, two factors ( L and K ), 2,22,model.,2. Fixed Endowment, free mobility of factor domestically, non-mobility internationally.,3.Same technical level between two nations ( Same production function, same endowment for same products in two nations),Two, Notions,Factor intensity,Factor abundance,23,三、,Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem,Each country exports the good intensive in the countrys abundant factor, and imports the good intensive in the countrys scarce factor.,两国要素禀赋不同，导致两国要素价格不同,要素价格差异导致生产成本差异,生产成本差异导致同种产品在两国的价格差异,同种产品在不同国家价格的差异导致国际贸易发生,两国要素密集度和要素丰,裕度的差异形成了不同产,品的比较优势,24,Trade influence and benefits,Production Possibility curve in case of two factors,Y,X,O,T,U,E,Due to diminishing substitution of factors, marginal opportunity cost will increase, thus production possibility curve is concave.,Its slope is the opportunity cost in point E. Equilibrium in E means marginal opportunity cost in E. Domestic equilibrium is equal to domestic price ratio.,equilibrium,X,0,Y,0,25,Trade influences : 1) price,Y,X,O,E,Domestic equilibrium pre trade. T is domestic exchange rate,T,T,1,After trade, the country export X, and its domestic supply of X decreases, and price X rises.,T,T,1,A,26,Trade Influences 2) production,Y,X,O,E,T,T,1,S,X,0,Y,0,X,1,Y,1,Since the international price of X is higher than that of domestic, production of X will increase, therefore, production of Y must decrease. Production combination will move to S.,Since in S, the international exchange rate is equal to domestic marginal opportunity cost, the countrys production of X will not increase. With the increase of marginal opportunity cost, there will not be perfect specialization.,A,27,Trade Influences 3) Consumption,Y,X,O,E,T,T,1,S,A,U,0,U,1,C,After trade, consumers in the nation will be able to consume at international price T1, as budget constraint moves to U1, consumption combination moves to C. U1 is higher than U0, so consumers are better off.,28,Equilibrium,Y,X,O,E,T,T,1,S,U,0,U,1,C,X,1,X,2,Y,1,Y,2,X,：,OX,1,-OX,2,=X,2,X,1,：,Ex,Y,：,OY,1,-OY,2,=Y,1,Y,2,：,Im,29,Benefit from Trade,Trade makes a nations consumers better off, but have different influences to producers.,Export Producers,D,X,S,X,Q,X,P,X,O,E,Q,0,P,0,H,G,F,P,1,Ex,HEP0,：,The export producers surplus pre trade,HGP1,：,The export producers surplus after trade.,Difference,：,P1GEP0,Trade will benefit export producers.,30,Influence to import competitive producers,D,Y,S,Y,Q,Y,P,Y,O,E,P,0,P,1,F,H,Im,K,P1FK,：,Producers surplus after trade,P0EK,：,Producers surplus before trade,Difference,：,P0EFP1,Trade will harm the import,competitive producers,31,Chap. 5. 2. An empirical study of H-O model,1, Leontif Paradox,According to the statistical analysis of Leontif, he found out that U.S.A., which is a capital abundant country, imports more captial-intensive products, while exports more labor intensive goods. This is a paradox to H-O model.,2, Explain the Paradox,Inverse of resource intensity,Trade barriers,Human resource,Natural Resources,H-O,模型并没有错,32,Chap5.3., Expansion of H-O model,International trade affects price production and consumption, but will it also affect the factor payoff and price? Basing on H-O model, we solve problems of trade to income distribution.,Stolper-Samuelson Theorem,Factor Payoff= Price,（,P,）,Marginal products of factors,（,MP,）,Value of marginal products,（,VMP,）,W = PMP,L,R = PMP,K,33,Short term: Factor non-mobility,Because of non-mobility, trade will only affect price,出口产品（,X,）价格上涨,W = P,X,MP,L,W increases,R = P,X,MP,K,R,increases,All export producers payoffs increase,进口产品（,Y,）价格下跌,W = P,Y,MP,L,W Decreases,R = P,Y,MP,K,R,Decreases,All import producers payoffs decrease,34,Long term: Because factors are mobile, trade not only affects price, but also the marginal products.,劳动密集行的出口行业报酬提高,资本密集型的进口竞争行业的要素向出口行业流动,进口竞争行业流出的资本比劳动多,出口行业需要的劳动比资本多,资本相对过剩，价格降低,劳动相对稀缺，价格提高,各行业投入更多资本，资本,/,劳动比率提高,劳动生产率提高，资本生产率下降,劳动的边际产品增加，资本的边际产品减少,35,Continue,出口行业,W = P,X,MP,L,P,X,上涨，,MP,L,增加,W,提高,R = P,X,MP,K,P,X,上涨，,MP,K,减少,R,？,进口竞争行业,W = P,Y,MP,L,P,Y,下跌，,MP,L,增加,W,？,R = P,Y,MP,K,P,Y,下跌，,MP,K,减少,R,下降,Payoff of the factor intensively used by exporters will increase,Payoff of the factor intensively used by importers will decrease,36,Continue,Labor market is in equilibrium before trade,W,X,= W,Y,，,R,X,= R,Y,Factor market will also form equilibrium after trade,WX,increases,，,WY,also increases,；,RX,decreases,，,RY,also decreases,In long term, after trade,Payoff of the factor intensively used by exporters will increase, and Payoff of the factor intensively used by importers will decrease, this is try in any industry.,37,Factor price equalization theory,Explains the influence of trade among countries to the factor price in two countries.,A,国贸易前,W,低,R,高,贸易后,W,提高,R,降低,B,国贸易前,W,高,R,低,贸易后,W,降低,R,提高,均等,38,Chap 6, New Trade Theory,Changes in international Trade,Increase of Intra-industry Trade,Development of trade within developed countries,Trade between goods with similar or same endowments,H-O,cannot explain,Amendments of assumptions of H-O model, develops to new trade theory,39,General points of new trade theories,Imperfect Competition,Differentiated products (Intra-industry trade),Monopoly power ( price difference),Large Scale Economy,Internal ( enterprises),External ( Industry),40,Intra-industry trade and cross- industry trade,Domestic,（,Rich in Capital,）,Foreign,（,Rich in labor,）,products,Foodstuff,Cross-industry trade,Intra-industry trade,41,Trade due to external scale economy,One, in case of perfect competition,Q,P,O,D,1,S,1,P,1,AC,1,MC,1,P,，,C,O,q,q,1,Q,1,Before trade, supply and demand,（,S1,，,D1,）,determine equilibrium price,（,P1,）, the MC and AC are MC1 and AC1.,42,Q,P,O,D,1,S,1,P,1,AC,1,MC,1,P,，,C,O,q,q,1,Q,1,S,2,Enlarge of industry, supply, supply increases to S2,AC,2,AC decreases,Meanwhile, market price falls, and trade happens,Q,2,P,2,D,2,MC,2,Foreign demands increase, demand curves moves,International price stays at P2,Output from enterprises stay unchanged,Reason of trade is because of the price change due to external scale economy,43,二、,Trade Equilibrium at external Scale of economy,X,Y,O,Production curve of increasing return to scale: diminishing marginal opportunity cost,E,T,Suppose other conditions are same for two nations, equilibrium point is E,U,J,H,U,1,T,1,E,1,Suppose the production scale of two nations change, production combination moves to J and H, trade according to same exchange rate (T1) before trade,T,2,Trade is due to the price advantage of X when industry scale is expanded.,Suppose X and Y are two,products in same industry,44,Trade due to Internal Scale of Economy: Imperfect competitive market,Q,O,D,1,MR,1,MC,Q,1,P,1,P,，,C,E,AC,Suppose marginal cost stay unchanged,Due to scale of economy, average cost falls,enterprises will trade,D,2,MR,2,P,2,AC,2,Q,2,Demand curve and marginal income curve move right, but slope is less( more elasticity),Price,（,P2,）,in short ter is higher than average cost,（,AC2,）, enterprise have monopoly profit,No monopoly profit,45,Long term equilibrium,Q,O,P,，,C,D,2,MR,2,MC,Q,2,AC,2,P,2,AC,Short term monopoly profit,MR,3,D,3,Q,3,P,3,New firm enter,Demand of the products decreases,Expansion of industry scale lower average cost, and competition eliminates monopoly profit.,Scale of economy causes trade, which consequently increase consumer surplus( welfare improves), better specialization,46,Krugman Model,Three relations,Relation of Quantity of producers and Average Cost: The bigger the quantity of producers, the less a single producers output, and AC is higher,Relation of Quantity of producers and price: The more the producers, the more serious the competition, the lower the price.,When price is higher than AC( has monopoly profit), other producers will go into the industry, while in other cases, when price is lower than AC( monopoly profit is negative), producers will go out of the industry.,In graph, relation of quantity of producers and AC is CC curve( in positive relationship),; Relation of Quantity of producers and price is PP curve in the graph ( in negative relationship). In long term, quantity of producers is determined by the cross of two curves.,47,Continued,N,P,，,C,CC,PP,O,E,P,1,AC,1,N,0,N,1,P,2,AC,2,N,2,Monopoly profit exists, new producers go in, N increases,Loss, producers go out, N decreases,Equilibrium,均衡,48,Trade Equilibrium,N,P,，,C,O,PP,CC,1,CC,2,N,1,N,2,P,1,P,2,E,1,E,2,Scale of economy lower the AC, has price advantage, export,The lower AC makes CC curve moves right, new producers go in, N increases,More competition means lower price,Scale of economy,causes lower price,bring with trade,improve consumers,welfare, make,producers specialized,scale of economy,expands, and more,choices for,consumers.,49,Products life cycle model ( technical transfer),t,Ex,Im,O,USA,：,UK,China,：,Trade happens due to the technical,difference, explains intra-industry,trade in different time,50,Chap 7, Economic growth and international trade,Solve problems of the influence of economic variation to international trade,Resource of growth,Increase of factors and technical improvements,Increase of GDP,Results of growth,O,X,Y,A,B,A,1,B,1,51,Balanced growth and unbalanced growth,Balanced Growth,O,X,Y,A,B,E,A,1,B,1,E,1,Same Slope,O,X,Y,A,B,Unbalanced growth,C,D,F,G,import replacing growth,export expansion,growth,52,Economic growth and trade,Growth and trade of small country,IRG,O,X,Y,A,B,T,T,C,D,U,0,U,1,F,G,H,L,M,N,O,X,Y,A,B,T,U,0,F,G,H,U,1,L,M,N,T,EEG,Trade condition stay unchanged, import and export change in same ratio,Trade volume does not affect international exchange rate ( Trade condition ),C,D,53,RybcZynski Theorem,O,X,Y,B,T,A,C,D,T,X,1,X,2,Y,1,Y,2,The scale of decrease of Xs cost is larger than that of Y, so production of X will increase till equal to marginal opportunity cost ( slope of T ), output of Y is absolutely lower.,54,Growth and trade for Large Country,大国,增长与贸易,Import replacing growth,X,O,Y,A,B,D,C,T,0,F,E,G,H,J,K,T,1,U,0,U,1,U,2,T,2,Welfare improves, HJ,GF, due to international market price of Y falls, trade condition improves, the certain amount of the nations products could exchange for more import goods.,55,Export expansion growth,X,O,Y,A,B,T,0,F,E,G,U,0,T,1,K,H,J,U,1,U,2,T,2,Export of X increase for large country, which causes international market price of X falls, trade condition changes.,Welfare improves. JKFE, more export products are needed in exchange for a certain amount of import goods, trade condition deteriorates.,C,D,56,Immiserizing growth,Y,O,X,A,B,C,D,T,T,1,U,0,U,1,57,Chap 8, Protectionism and Policies,When free trade can make two countries better off, why should there be trade protection?,One, Policies of the mercantilism,只有金银才是财富,任何国家金银储量都是有限的，只有靠出口赚取别国金银才能增加本国财富,同时要限制或禁止本国购买别国商品支出本国金银,限制或禁止进口，,同时鼓励出口,58,Two, Protection theory of List,There should be different trade policies,in different stages of economic development.,59,Trade protectionism of Keynesian,Aggregate Demand:,C,I,G,X,Aggregate Supply,：,C,S,T,M,消费,投资,政府支出,出口,消费,储蓄,进口,政府收入,Equation of Aggregate Demands,Y,C,I,G,（,X,M,）,Net Export,60,Trade Multiplier,Consumption Function,：,C,Ca,bY,自发消费,引致消费,MPC X Income,Y,C,a,bY,I,G,（,X,M,）,不考虑,C,a,、,I,和,G,Y,bY,（,X,M,）,Y,bY,（,X,M,）,Y,1,1,b,（,X,M,）,Let,1,1,b,k,，,Y,k,（,X,M,）,In order to increase Y, needs to increase (XM), or the exports, and decrease imports, then Y is increased by K times.,61,New Trade protectionism,Strategic Trade policy,Prisoners dilemma,A,B,confess,Not confess,confess,Not confess,5,，,5,10,，,1,1,，,10,0,，,0,Nash equilibrium,62,Strategic Trade policies,Boing,Air bus,Produce,Not produce,Produce,Not produce,5,，,5,0,，,100,100,，,0,0,，,0,Boing,Air bus,produce,Not Produce,Produce,Not Produce,5,，,20,0,，,125,100,，,0,0,，,0,政府可以采取措施帮助本国企业获得战略性优势,63,Other reasons for trade protection,Protect young industries,Protect industries whose average cost not higher than that of international market price in future,Cost should be lower than the income of the industry in future,Industry must be free join an exit,Promote capital formation and industry multilateral,Improve trade conditions and international balance of payments,Increase employment and sustain high salary,Promote economic development of developing countries.,64,Chap 9, Trade management theories and policies,Limited import,Tariff,Non-tariff Barriers,Quantity limitations,Price limitations,Purchase control,Financial control,TBT,Improve export,Export credit,National Guarantee of export credit,Export subsidy,Dumping,65,Tariff,Basic Ideas,（,P.113116,）,ERP,ERP,V ,V,V,V ,（,Final price of exports +Duty) price of Imported material,V,price of foreign end productsforeign material price,Under a certain nominal