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,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,中国银行间市场交易商协会,北京,2010,年,6,月,3,日,1,一、国际市场发展趋势及启示,二、国内市场的状况,三、国内外市场比较四、国内人民币衍生产品市场存在的问题及活跃市场的可能方法五、人民币国际化趋势下的发展,六、国内衍生产品市场发展的几点思考,2,四海震荡稍稳，债股黑金白银。,杠杆缩减成势，基本功能长存。,从,90,年代中后期以来银行间已经少有很新的产品出现了！然而场内期货和期权市场却保持了较为稳步的发展,风险对冲的基本功能没有出现变化。,一、国际金融产品发展趋势,3,全球期货成交金额及其增长率,单位,:,万亿美元,(US$ trillion),年,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,总成交金额,283.1,278.3,270.3,294.5,317.8,289.0,318.0,446.0,年增长率,51.2%,-1.7%,-2.9%,9.0%,7.9%,-9.1%,10.0%,40.2%,利率期货成交金额,270.4,264.6,254.8,275.7,296.3,265.0,292.2,420.9,年增长率,52.4%,-2.1%,-3.7%,8.2%,7.5%,-10.6%,10.3%,44.1%,外汇期货成交金额,3.2,3.2,2.7,2.7,2.5,2.6,2.4,2.5,年增长率,14.5%,-0.3%,-17.3%,3.2%,-7.1%,1.7%,-6.5%,3.4%,股指期货成交金额,9.5,10.5,12.8,16.1,18.9,21.4,23.4,22.6,年增长率,34.1%,10.5%,22.2%,26.1%,17.4%,12.9%,9.3%,-3.6%,年,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,总成交金额,501.9,625.1,831.8,1005.8,1262.9,1587.4,1567.6,1127.9,年增长率,12.5%,24.6%,33.1%,20.9%,25.6%,25.7%,-1.2%,-28.0%,利率期货成交金额,472.8,588.7,783.1,939.6,1169.3,1433.7,1406.0,1016.5,年增长率,12.3%,24.5%,33.0%,20.0%,24.5%,22.6%,-1.9%,-27.7%,外汇期货成交金额,2.5,3.9,6.61,11.13,15.28,21.1,24.9,24.2,年增长率,0.6%,56.7%,68.0%,68.2%,37.3%,38.2%,18.1%,-2.9%,股指期货成交金额,26.5,32.4,42.0,55.1,78.3,132.6,136.7,87.2,年增长率,17.5%,22.4%,29.5%,31.0%,42.1%,69.5%,3.1%,-36.2%,4,全球期权,(,交易所,),成交金额及其增长率,单位,:,万亿美元,(US$ trillion),年,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,总成交金额,55.9,53.4,52.4,61.9,70.5,62.2,66.4,148.4,年增长率,38.3%,-4.5%,-1.9%,18.2%,13.8%,-11.8%,6.7%,123.6%,利率期权成交金额,46.4,43.0,41.1,48.7,55.6,45.8,47.4,122.8,年增长率,41.6%,-7.3%,-4.5%,18.5%,14.2%,-17.7%,3.4%,159.1%,外汇期权成交金额,1.4,1.3,1.3,0.9,0.5,0.3,0.2,0.4,年增长率,-2.6%,-4.8%,-2.5%,-31.6%,-38.5%,-46.9%,-26.6%,68.1%,股指期权成交金额,8.1,9.1,10.0,12.3,14.3,16.1,18.8,25.2,年增长率,30.2%,11.9%,10.3%,23.4%,15.6%,12.6%,16.9%,34.5%,年,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,总成交金额,191.3,249.2,312.1,402.6,546.4,702.0,675.1,534.8,年增长率,28.9%,30.2%,25.25%,29.0%,35.7%,28.5%,-3.8%,-20.8%,利率期权成交金额,154.5,205.4,260.1,328.8,446.1,547.6,535.2,434.7,年增长率,25.9%,32.9%,26.6%,26.4%,35.7%,22.8%,-2.3%,-18.8%,外汇期权成交金额,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.9,1.12,2.1,2.8,2.0,年增长率,18.7%,16.5%,19.6%,61.0%,17.7%,91.7%,30.9%,-29.3%,股指期权成交金额,36.4,43.3,51.4,72.9,99.2,152.3,137.1,98.1,年增长率,44.1%,19.0%,18.8%,41.7%,36.1%,53.5%,-10.0%,-28.4%,5,全球期货和交易所期权成交金额及其增长率,单位,:,万亿美元,(US$ trillion),年,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,总成交金额,339.0,331.7,322.7,356.5,388.2,351.2,384.4,594.4,年增长率,48.9%,-2.1%,-2.7%,10.5%,8.9%,-9.5%,9.5%,54.6%,国内生产总值,29.1,29.1,29.9,29.7,29.5,30.6,31.4,31.0,总成交金额,/,国内生产总值,11.6,11.4,10.8,12.0,13.2,11.5,12.2,19.2,年增长率,34.6%,31.7%,-5.3%,11.2%,9.6%,-12.8%,6.7%,56.6%,年,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,总成交金额,693.2,874.3,1143.9,1408.4,1809.3,2289.4,2242.7,1662.7,年增长率,16.6%,26.1%,30.8%,23.1%,28.5%,26.5%,-2.0%,-25.9%,国内生产总值,32.1,35.1,40.9,44.4,48.2,54.3,60.1,57.9,总成交金额,/,国内生产总值,21.6,24.9,28.0,31.7,37.5,42.1,37.3,28.7,年增长率,12.6%,15.3%,12.3%,13.3%,18.3%,12.3%,-11.4%,-23.1%,6,全球期货成交金额及其季度同比变化率,单位,:,万亿美元,(US$ trillion),季度,2008Q1,2008Q2,2008Q3,2008Q4,2009Q1,2009Q2,2009Q3,2009Q4,总成交金额,486.4,429.8,388.8,262.6,241.7,287.5,291.4,307.3,同比变化率,28.3%,14.8%,-15.1%,-30.2%,-50.3%,-33.1%,-25.0%,17.0%,利率期货成交金额,441.9,390.8,345.0,228.3,217.9,260.9,261.5,276.2,同比变化率,27.6%,15.1%,-16.6%,-31.7%,-50.7%,-33.2%,-24.2%,21.0%,外汇期货成交金额,5.9,6.7,7.2,5.1,4.4,5.5,6.7,7.7,同比变化率,7.5%,42.5%,28.6%,-3.8%,-25.6%,-18.4%,-7.5%,49.8%,股指期货成交金额,38.6,32.3,36.6,29.2,19.4,21.1,23.2,23.4,同比变化率,41.2%,6.7%,-5.0%,-20.0%,-49.8%,-34.6%,-36.5%,-19.7%,7,全球期权,(,交易所,),季度成交金额及其变化率,单位,:,万亿美元,(US$ trillion),季度,2008Q1,2008Q2,2008Q3,2008Q4,2009Q1,2009Q2,2009Q3,2009Q4,总成交金额,205.6,170.6,153.4,145.5,125.3,138.3,134.0,137.2,同比变化率,33.5%,5.6%,-31.4%,-10.7%,-39.0%,-18.9%,-12.7%,-5.7%,利率期货成交金额,170.3,135.4,113.4,116.2,106.3,115.6,106.3,106.5,同比变化率,41.3%,10.0%,-37.1%,-6.3%,-37.6%,-14.6%,-6.2%,-8.3%,外汇期货成交金额,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.5,0.4,0.5,0.5,0.6,同比变化率,108.1%,58.8%,24.1%,-29.4%,-47.6%,-43.0%,-29.0%,25.8%,股指期货成交金额,34.5,34.5,39.3,28.8,18.6,22.3,27.1,30.1,同比变化率,4.2%,-9.3%,-8.1%,-24.9%,-46.1%,-35.3%,-31.0%,4.3%,8,全球信用违约调期半年存额及其变化率,单位,:,万亿美元,(US$ trillion),9,有升有降,缺位略缓仍存，有市交量少闻。,减缺补圆为要，对症良药何寻？,几年来，我国银行间产品逐渐从无到有，然而场内对冲产品有限，金融期货缺位；,2010,年,4,月正式推出股票指数期货标志着我们金融期货的正式启程。然而作为衍生产品的重要组成部分，期权仍然缺位！众多银行间产品从无到有，然而大多市场流动性仍然过低。,10,2009,年三个交易所分别占全球商品期货和期权成交量比重为,18.8%,、,18.0%,和,9.8%,（三家交易所总成交量占全球,46.6%,），排名为第二到第四；全球衍生产品交易量排明分别为第,10,、,11,和,14,。,11,估计,2010,年全国期货成交金额有望首次超过,200,万亿元，超过当年国内生产总值的,500%,。,12,Year,2009,2008,2007,Annual growth rate from,2008 to 2009,Annual growth rate from,2007 to 2009,Number of listed warrants at year-end,10,，,000,50.4,48.9,31.7,3.1%,54.2%,Turnover of warrants (US$,亿,),8,171.5,10,419.8,14,491.3,-21.6%,-28.1%,13,14,2009,年比,2007,年增长,-56.0%,15,2009,年比,2007,年增长,154.3%,16,2009,年比,2007,年增长,189.8%,17,2009,年比,2007,年增长,134.9%,18,2009,年比,2007,年增长,471.4%,19,理财产品,fastest growing area linked to FX rates, stock prices and indices, interest rates, commodity prices etc,；,Various vanilla options and exotic options are embedded into such products,权证,可转换债券等,20,和我们自己相比，我们几年来，特别是,2005,年以来，银行间市场产品推出速度大幅度提升，多个产品从无到有，取得了可喜的成绩。但是，我国经济国际地位的逐步提升，国际金融中心的建设等因素要求我们不仅和自己的过去进行比较，还要与其他发展中国家和发达国家比较。明确了差距，我们才能容易找到我们的今后的努力方向。,三、国际比较,21,远期结售汇（远期交易）,:1997,年开始,2007,年总成交金额占世界,0.77%,外汇互换,: 2005,年开始,2007,年总成交金额占世界,0.07%,利率互换,: 2006,年开始,2007,年总成交金额占世界,0.01%,债券远期,: 2005,年开始,2007,年总成交金额占世界,0.05%,而,2007,年到,2009,年我国,GDP,占世界比例分别为,6.3%,、,7.4%,和,8.6%!,主要银行间市场的国,际占比,22,23,有幸运获得领导批准参加了中印两国提议、亚行赞助研究两国相互学习的项目，完成了,100,多页学习和借鉴印度金融业发展的报告，亚行会向两国政府汇报并提交相关报告。,24,产品仍然缺位,1,）主要商品期货仍有缺位,原油期货等,2,）金融期货仍然大多缺位,利率期货、外汇期货等,3,）期权仍然缺位,商品期货期权，股票指数期权，外汇期权等,25,市场活跃度需大幅度提升到与我国经济全球占比相应的程度：国债二级市场流动性都显著不足！,在逐步推出新产品从而完善市场结构的同时，认真研究现有产品不够活跃的主要原因，从而找到,“,对症下药,”,的良方！只有找到良方，今后才能有持续稳步增长的各个要素市场！,26,利率市场化程度和走势，国债收益率曲线的逐步完善及其功能，进步很大，仍需改善,“,真是需求,”,对交易活跃有相当程度的限制，需要做出与时具进的调整,风险意识有待提高,评级机构的建立和逐步完善等,27,场外产品设计、定价缺乏经验,场内,产品缺位，难以对冲风险期权缺位，风险管理模型缺乏盯市基础缺乏实战经验的人才,28,对产品研发的重视程度还不够！很多机构创新仍然停留在理顺现有机制的阶段，还没有把注意力放在产品上！很多理财产品仍然由外部设计、柜台交易的场外产品价格由外部提供,29,人民币跨径贸易结算是,2009,年以来多个部门努力推动的重大事项，是人民币国际化的重要起点。我们从人民币国际化的角度考虑我国银行间市场今后的发展趋势。,30,31,货币,2007,年外汇交易占比,2007,年,GDP,占比,外汇交易占比与,GDP,占比差额,外汇交易占比,/GDP,占比,美元,43.2%,25.4%,17.8%,169.9%,欧元,18.5%,27.5%,-9.0%,67.3%,日元,8.3%,8.1%,0.2%,101.9%,英镑,7.5%,5.0%,2.5%,150.0%,瑞士法郎,3.4%,0.8%,2.6%,425.0%,5,币总量,80.8%,66.8%,14.0%,121.0%,澳大利亚元,3.4%,1.5%,1.9%,223.3%,加拿大元,2.1%,2.4%,-0.3%,87.5%,瑞典克朗,1.4%,0.8%,0.6%,175.0%,港币,1.4%,0.4%,1.0%,350.0%,挪威克朗,1.1%,0.7%,0.4%,157.1%,新西兰元,1.0%,0.7%,0.3%,135.7%,新加坡元,0.7%,0.3%,0.4%,216.7%,7,币总量,11.0%,6.4%,4.6%,171.1%,墨西哥比索,0.7%,1.6%,-1.0%,40.6%,韩元,0.6%,1.8%,-1.3%,30.6%,俄罗斯卢布,0.4%,2.4%,-2.0%,16.7%,印度卢比,0.4%,2.2%,-1.9%,15.9%,人民币,0.3%,6.2%,-6.0%,4.0%,巴西雷亚尔,0.2%,2.4%,-2.2%,8.3%,6,币总量,2.4%,16.6%,-14.2%,14.5%,后,4,币总量,1.2%,13.2%,-12.0%,9.1%,32,外汇市场份额,/GDP,份额,25%,35%,56%,59%,80%,中国外汇市场占世界比重,3.5%,4.9%,7.8%,8.3%,11.2%,中国外汇市场规模（万亿美元）,69.1,96.8,154.8,163.1,221.1,中国外汇市场成交额年均增长率,30.1%,33.6%,38.5%,39.0%,42.3%,中国外汇市场即期成交额年均增长率,26.9%,30.3%,35.1%,35.6%,38.8%,中国外汇市场远期成交额年均增长率,26.7%,30.1%,34.9%,35.4%,38.6%,中国外汇市场掉期成交额年均增长率,49.3%,53.2%,58.9%,59.5%,63.3%,33,信用衍生产品是国际金融市场上最后活跃起来的金融衍生产品。该类产品的活跃是在之前企业债券、利率衍生产品等视察发展的基础上逐步发展起来的，需要相当的基础建设,基础市场,-,企业债券市场的规模和活跃,利率衍生产品市场的相对规模活跃,信用评级机构功能的相对健全,此三个条件缺一不可,34,从简到难，循序渐进。,场内场外，相互促进。,确定战略，持续前进。,打好基础，稳步迈进。,不惧排名差，只怕缺计划。,战略路径清，秋冬似春夏。,35,“,Exotic Options a guide to 2nd generation options”(English,700p),World Scientific,1997,1998 (Peter G. Zhang),中文版,2010,年,10,月出版,张光平著,人民币衍生产品,(76,万字, 876,页,), 2006,年,5,月首版发行，第二版（,114,万字，,1240,页，,2008,年,8,月）；,人民币产品创新, (26,万字），,2010,年,3,月金融出版社发行，英文版（,John Wiley & Sons) 2010,年夏天全球出版；,Exotic Options,奇异期权,汉语版,2010,年国内出版。,“,Chinese Yuan Derivative Products”(English,400p),World Scientific,October 2004 (Peter G. Zhang),36,愿意与各界同人一起共同努力推进我国银行间衍生产品市场以至整个金融衍生产品市场健康、稳步、较快发展！为经济持续健康发展做出贡献！,谢谢！,37,
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