城乡移民课件

,Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre du masque,Cliquez pour modifier les styles du texte du masque,Deuxime niveau,Troisime niveau,Quatrime niveau,Cinquime niveau,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,发展经济学,VI,农村与城市,城乡移民,农村与城市，城乡移民,二元经济,结构差别,刘易斯模型,拉尼斯,-费模型,城乡人口迁移,哈里斯,-托达罗模型,城乡发展的政策,含义,1,.,二元经济,1,.1,发展中国家的结构特征,农村部门与城市部门的区别,城市的正式和非正式部门,农业一个庞大的非正式部门,1,.2,刘易斯模型,I,传统和现代部门的共存,传统部门（农业,）的剩余劳动力（印度）,剩余劳动力的低成本转移（图）,收入的分享与剩余劳动力（非农部门）*,现代部门的产量和就业增长,模型（图）,图：剩余劳动力,图：刘易斯模型,D1,D3,D2,实际工资,劳动数量,F,G,H,W,A,O,L1,L2,L3,Ls,D1(K1),D2(K2),D3(K3),K3K2K1,S,S,1,.2,刘易斯模型,II,发展中国家经济发展的两个阶段,模型评价与批判,现代部门的投资与就业,城市中的高失业率,劳动力市场不是完全竞争，工资呈上升趋势,1,.3,拉尼斯-费模型,I,剩余劳动力概念的扩展,隐蔽失业：边际产出低于工资的劳动力,剩余劳动力与剩余劳动,为保证农业产量，在劳动力转移后，留在农业劳力的劳动投入增加。,劳动补偿取决于劳动力的边际成本。,恒定的边际成本,随努力程度递增的边际成本（图）,图:,过剩劳动与过剩劳动力,1,.3,拉尼斯-费模型,II,劳动力转移的三个阶段,剩余劳动力,隐蔽性失业,农业商业化,农业剩余的变化,现代工业劳动力供求变化,图：农业劳动力与农业剩余,平均农业剩余,农业部门劳动力,不变剩余,剩余劳动力,产出,平均剩余,下降的剩余,下降的剩余,隐蔽失业,商业化,工资,农业产出,图：农业劳动力与工业部门劳动力,工业部门工资,劳动力需求曲线,无限供给,劳动力供给曲线,第一个转折点,第二,个,转折点,工业部门劳动力,X,Y,Z,Z,1,.3,拉尼斯-费模型,III,政策影响,农业税收,劳动力转移，农业工资和税收,短期与长期作用（前苏联,）,农业价格政策,收购价格,投入品补贴,汇率政策,例子（前苏联和中国的对比）,2.,农村,-城市人口流动,哈里斯-托达罗模型,城市正式部门的工资高,工会组织,法律要求最低工资，退休金，失业补助,效率工资,非正式部门和农村低工资,2.1 基本模型：灵活工资,2.2 引入工资刚性,I,2.2 引入工资刚性,II:,失业和非正式部门,2.2 引入工资刚性,II:,失业和非正式部门,2.3 哈里斯-托达罗均衡,I,正式部门工作的概率,：,p=L,F,/(L,F,+L,I,),均衡条件：,事前没偏好，事后有偏好,三个部门的特定分配，预期概率内生,城市,、,农村内部部门的扩展,2.3 哈里斯-托达罗均衡,II,2.4 政策影响,I:,增加正式部门的就业,均衡的内生性,正式部门就业概率上升,迁移预期收入上升，引发移民,农业工资上升，城市预期工资下降,新的均衡：,新的预期工资上升,满足以下条件：,非正式部门在总城市部门就业比重下降，但总规模可能上升，政策相反的效果。,2.4 政策影响,II:,移民限制,2.4 政策影响,II:,对城市正式部门雇主的补贴,2.4 政策影响,III:,以上两种政策混合使用达到均衡,2.4 政策影响,IV:,城市与农村的统一补贴,L,f,La,w,w-s,w-s,wa,L,f,La,w,W*,s,2.4 政策影响,V:,过度补贴下的均衡,2.5,托达罗模型的基本特征,促进人口流动的基本力量是相对收益和成本，既有经济因素也有心理因素,迁移取决于预期城乡工资差异（概率）,城市就业机会与就业率成正比，与失业率成反比。,人口流动可能超过城市工作机会增长,2.6,托达罗模型的政策含义,减少因偏重城市而引起的城乡就业不平衡,创造城市就业不足以解决城市失业问题,适当控制工资补贴和政府人员数量。,关注农村的发展,2.7 模型的扩展,风险厌恶（图）,风险厌恶与人口流动,社会资本和人口流动,各种形式的社保，保险，紧急贷款等,比较完全的信息与较低的流动性,人口流动与家庭为单位的决策,移民关系网,社会地位落差,图：风险厌恶,6,中国城乡收入比较,（1978-2003）,Growth of Real Per Capita Household Income,农村净收入,城镇可支配收入,Income in Constant 2004 Prices (RMB),城乡,比率,1978,(About 500),1,701,3.4,1985,1,343,2,728,2.0,1991,1,585,3,612,2.3,2004,2,936,9,422,3.2,Average Annual Growth Rate (percent),1978-1985,(About 15%),7.0%,1985-1991,2.8%,4.8%,1991-2004,4.9%,7.7%,In 2004, one RMB was worth $0.12 at the official exchange rate, or $0.55 at PPP.,城乡收入差距,城乡移民与城市化,Source: Barry Naughton,The Chinese Economy, Figure 5.1 on page 127, 2007.,Good Infrastructure and Relaxation on Labour Mobility Created Probably the Greatest Waves of Rural-Urban Migration in the Worlds History,Source: Barry Naughton,The Chinese Economy, Figure 5.2 on page 130, 2007.,中国城市化率,1978-2003,几组国家城市化率的比较,Rural Reform Released Rural Surplus Labour and Made It Possible for the Decline of Agricultural Employment from 70% in 1978 to 40% in 2007,Source: Barry Naughton,The Chinese Economy, Figure 6.3 on page 151, 2007.,Booming Non-State Sector in the Cities Absorbed Massive Rural Surplus Labour,Source: Barry Naughton,The Chinese Economy, Figure 8.3 on page 190, 2007.,关于移民的研究,移民决策的影响因素,经济因素,制度因素,风险（事先）,环境,移民的作用,收入，,remittance,保险作用（事后）,关于城乡移民研究的部分文献,Climatic change and ruralurban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa,Journal of Urban Economics，Available online 5 June 2006,Salvador Barrios, Luisito Bertinelli and Eric Strobl,Foreign capital, welfare and urban unemployment in the presence of agricultural dualism,Japan and the World Economy, Available online 10 October 2005,Sarbajit Chaudhuri,Chapter 24 Urbanization and Growth,Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1, Part 2, 2005, Pages 1543-1591,J. Vernon Henderson,Ruralurban migration and agricultural productivity: the case of Senegal,Agricultural Economics, Volume 31, Issue 1, July 2004, Pages 33-45,Peter D. Goldsmith, Kisan Gunjal and Barnab Ndarishikanye,DevelopmentThere is Another Way: A RuralUrban Partnership Development Paradigm,World Development, Volume 29, Issue 8, August 2001, Pages 1443-1454,T. Scarlett EpsteinDavid Jezeph,Rural-urban migation, informal sector and development policies A theoretical analysis,Journal of Development Economics, Volume 41, Issue 1, June 1993, Pages 137-151,Manash Ranjan Gupta,Population pressure, intensification of agriculture, and rural-urban migration,Journal of Development Economics, Volume 40, Issue 2, April 1993, Pages 371-384,Djavad Salehi-Isfahani,关于中国城乡移民研究的部分文献,How migration restrictions limit agglomeration and productivity in China,Journal of Development Economics, Volume 80, Issue 2, August 2006, Pages 350-388,Chun-Chung Au and J. Vernon Henderson,The paradox of Chinas growing under-urbanization,Economic Systems, Volume 30, Issue 1, March 2006, Pages 24-40,Gene Hsin Chang and Josef C. Brada,Ruralurban migration and wage determination: The case of Tianjin, China,China Economic Review, Volume 17, Issue 3, 2006, Pages 337-345,Zhigang LU and Shunfeng SONG,Intermigration and intramigration in China: A theoretical and empirical analysis,China Economic Review, Volume 14, Issue 4, 2003, Pages 371-385,Zhongmin WU and Shujie YAO,Ruralurban migration and urbanization in China: Evidence from time-series and cross-section analyses,China Economic Review, Volume 14, Issue 4, 2003, Pages 386-400,Kevin Honglin ZHANG and Shunfeng SONG,Trade, ruralurban migration, and regional income disparity in developing countries: a spatial general equilibrium model inspired by the case of China,Regional Science and Urban Economics, Volume 32, Issue 3, May 2002, Pages 311-338,Dapeng Hu,The Two-Tier Labor Market in Urban China: Occupational Segregation and Wage Differentials between Urban Residents and Rural Migrants in Shanghai,Journal of Comparative Economics, Volume 29, Issue 3, September 2001, Pages 485-504,Xin Meng and Junsen Zhang,结束语,当你尽了自己的最大努力时，失败也是伟大的，所以不要放弃，坚持就是正确的。,When You Do Your Best, Failure Is Great, So DonT Give Up, Stick To The End,谢谢大家,荣幸这一路，与你同行,ItS An Honor To Walk With You All The Way,演讲人：,XXXXXX,时 间：,XX,年,XX,月,XX,日,