宏观经济学英文课件

MacroEconomicsMacroGrossDomesticProductGrossIn this chapter,look for the answers to these questions:nWhatisGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)?nHowisGDPrelatedtoanationstotalincomeandspending?nWhatarethecomponentsofGDP?nHowisGDPcorrectedforinflation?nDoesGDPmeasuresocietyswell-being?Inthischapter,lookfortheMicro vs.MacronMicroeconomics:Thestudyofhowindividualhouseholdsandfirmsmakedecisions,interactwithoneanotherinmarkets.nMacroeconomics:Thestudyoftheeconomyasawhole.nWebeginourstudyofmacroeconomicswiththecountrystotalincomeandexpenditure.Microvs.MacroMicroeconomics:Income and ExpenditurenGross Domestic Product(GDP)measurestotalincomeofeveryoneintheeconomy.nGDPalsomeasurestotalexpenditureontheeconomysoutputofg&s.For the economy as a whole,income equals expenditureincome equals expenditure,because every dollar a buyer spends is a dollar of income for the seller.IncomeandExpenditureGrossDoThe Circular-Flow DiagramnasimpledepictionofthemacroeconomynillustratesGDPasspending,revenue,factorpayments,andincomenPreliminaries:Factors of productionareinputslikelabor,land,capital,andnaturalresources.Factor paymentsarepaymentstothefactorsofproduction.(e.g.,wages,rent)TheCircular-FlowDiagramasimFIGURE 1:The Circular-Flow DiagramHouseholds:own the factors of production,sell/rent them to firms for incomebuy and consume g&sHouseholdsFirmsFIGURE1:TheCircular-FlowFIGURE 1:The Circular-Flow DiagramHouseholdsFirmsFirms:buy/hire factors of production,use them to produce g&ssell g&sFIGURE1:TheCircular-FlowWhat This Diagram OmitsnThegovernmentcollectstaxespurchasesg&snThefinancialsystemmatchessaverssupplyoffundswithborrowersdemandforloansnTheforeignsectortradesg&s,financialassets,andcurrencieswiththecountrysresidentsWhatThisDiagramOmitsThegovthemarketvalueofallfinalgoods&servicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime.Gross Domestic Product(GDP)IsGoods are valued at their market prices,so:all goods measured in the same units(e.g.,dollars in the U.S.)Things that dont have a market value are excluded,e.g.,housework you do for yourself.themarketvalueofallfinalthemarketvalueofallfinalgoods&servicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime.Gross Domestic Product(GDP)IsFinal goods:intended for the end user Intermediate goods:used as components or ingredients in the production of other goods GDP only includes final goods they already embody the value of the intermediate goods used in their production.themarketvalueofallfinalthemarketvalueofallfinalgoods&servicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime.Gross Domestic Product(GDP)IsGDP includes tangible goods(like DVDs,mountain bikes,beer)and intangible services(dry cleaning,concerts,cell phone service).themarketvalueofallfinalthemarketvalueofallfinalgoods&servicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime.Gross Domestic Product(GDP)IsGDP includes currently produced goods,not goods produced in the past.themarketvalueofallfinalthemarketvalueofallfinalgoods&servicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime.Gross Domestic Product(GDP)IsGDP measures the value of production that occurs within a countrys borders,whether done by its own citizens or by foreigners located there.themarketvalueofallfinalthemarketvalueofallfinalgoods&servicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime.Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Isusually a year or a quarter(3 months)themarketvalueofallfinalThe Components of GDPnRecall:GDPistotalspending.nFourcomponents:Consumption(C)Investment(I)GovernmentPurchases(G)NetExports(NX)nThesecomponentsadduptoGDP(denotedY):Y =C +I +G +NXTheComponentsofGDPRecall:Consumption(C)nistotalspendingbyhouseholdsong&s.nNoteonhousingcosts:Forrenters,consumptionincludesrentpayments.Forhomeowners,consumptionincludestheimputedrentalvalueofthehouse,butnotthepurchasepriceormortgagepayments.Consumption(C)istotalspendiInvestment(I)nistotalspendingongoodsthatwillbeusedinthefuturetoproducemoregoods.nincludesspendingoncapitalequipment(e.g.,machines,tools)structures(factories,officebuildings,houses)inventories(goodsproducedbutnotyetsold)Note:“Investment”“Investment”does not mean the purchase of financial assets like stocks and bonds.Investment(I)istotalspendinGovernment Purchases(G)nisallspendingontheg&spurchasedbygovtatthefederal,state,andlocallevels.nGexcludestransfer payments,suchasSocialSecurityorunemploymentinsurancebenefits.Theyarenotpurchasesofg&s.GovernmentPurchases(G)isallNet Exports(NX)nNX=exportsimportsnExportsrepresentforeignspendingontheeconomysg&s.nImportsaretheportionsofC,I,andGthatarespentong&sproducedabroad.nAddingupallthecomponentsofGDPgives:Y =C +I +G +NXNetExports(NX)NX=exportsU.S.GDP and Its Components,20072,3448,9057,03732,228$45,825per capita5.119.415.470.3100.0%of GDP7082,6902,1259,734$13,841billionsNXGICYU.S.GDPandItsComponents,2A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1:A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1:GDP and its componentsGDP and its componentsIneachofthefollowingcases,determinehowmuchGDPandeachofitscomponentsisaffected(ifatall).A.Debbiespends$200tobuyherhusbanddinneratthefinestrestaurantinBoston.B.Sarahspends$1800onanewlaptoptouseinherpublishingbusiness.ThelaptopwasbuiltinChina.C.Janespends$1200onacomputertouseinhereditingbusiness.Shegotlastyearsmodelonsaleforagreatpricefromalocalmanufacturer.D.GeneralMotorsbuilds$500millionworthofcars,butconsumersonlybuy$470millionworthofthem.ACTIVELEARNINGA C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1:AnswersA.Debbiespends$200tobuyherhusbanddinneratthefinestrestaurantinBoston.Consumption and GDP rise by$200.B.Sarahspends$1800onanewlaptoptouseinherpublishingbusiness.ThelaptopwasbuiltinChina.Investment rises by$1800,net exports fall by$1800,GDP is unchanged.ACTIVELEARNINGA C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1:AnswersC.Janespends$1200onacomputertouseinhereditingbusiness.Shegotlastyearsmodelonsaleforagreatpricefromalocalmanufacturer.Current GDP and investment do not change,because the computer was built last year.D.GeneralMotorsbuilds$500millionworthofcars,butconsumersonlybuy$470millionofthem.Consumption rises by$470 million,inventory investment rises by$30 million,and GDP rises by$500 million.ACTIVELEARNINGReal versus Nominal GDPnInflationcandistorteconomicvariableslikeGDP,sowehavetwoversionsofGDP:Oneiscorrectedforinflation,theotherisnot.nNominal GDPvaluesoutputusingcurrentprices.Itisnotcorrectedforinflation.nReal GDPvaluesoutputusingthepricesofabase year.RealGDPiscorrectedforinflation.RealversusNominalGDPInflatiEXAMPLE:ComputenominalGDPineachyear:2002:$10 x400+$2x1000=$6,0002003:$11x500+$2.50 x1100=$8,2502004:$12x600+$3x1200=$10,80037.5%Increase:30.9%EXAMPLE:ComputenominalGDPinEXAMPLE:ComputerealGDPineachyear,using2002asthebaseyear:20.0%Increase:16.7%$10$2.002002:$10 x 400 +$2 x 1000 =$6,0002003:$10 x 500 +$2 x 1100=$7,2002004:$10 x 600 +$2 x 1200=$8,400EXAMPLE:ComputerealGDPineaEXAMPLE:Ineachyear,nnominalGDPismeasuredusingthe(then)currentprices.nrealGDPismeasuredusingconstantpricesfromthebaseyear(2002inthisexample).EXAMPLE:Ineachyear,EXAMPLE:nThechangeinnominalGDPreflectsbothpricesandquantities.20.0%16.7%37.5%30.9%The change in real GDP is the amount that GDP would change if prices were constant(i.e.,if zero inflation).Hence,real GDP is corrected for inflation.EXAMPLE:ThechangeinnominalNominal and Real GDP in the U.S.,1965-2007Real GDP(base year 2000)Nominal GDPNominalandRealGDPintheU.The GDP DeflatornTheGDPdeflatorisameasureoftheoveralllevelofprices.nDefinition:One way to measure the economys inflation rate is to compute the percentage increase in the GDP deflator from one year to the next.GDP deflator =100 x nominal GDPreal GDPTheGDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatCHAPTER 23 MEASURING A NATIONS INCOMEEXAMPLE:ComputetheGDPdeflatorineachyear:2002:100 x(6000/6000)=100.0100.02003:100 x(8250/7200)=114.6114.62004:100 x(10,800/8400)=128.6128.614.6%12.2%CHAPTER23MEASURINGANATIA C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2:Computing GDP33Usetheabovedatatosolvetheseproblems:A.ComputenominalGDPin2004.B.ComputerealGDPin2005.C.ComputetheGDPdeflatorin2006.ACTIVELEARNINGA C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2:Answers34A.ComputenominalGDPin2004.$30 x900+$100 x192=$46,200B.ComputerealGDPin2005.$30 x1000+$100 x200=$50,000ACTIVELEARNINGA C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2:Answers35C.ComputetheGDPdeflatorin2006.NomGDP=$36x1050+$100 x205=$58,300RealGDP=$30 x1050+$100 x205=$52,000GDPdeflator=100 x(NomGDP)/(RealGDP)=100 x($58,300)/($52,000)=112.1ACTIVELEARNINGGDP and Economic Well-BeingnReal GDP per capita is the main indicator of the average persons standard of living.nButGDPisnotaperfectmeasureofwell-being.nRobertKennedyissuedaveryeloquentyetharshcriticismofGDP:GDPandEconomicWell-BeingReaGrossDomesticProduct“doesnotallowforthehealthofourchildren,thequalityoftheireducation,orthejoyoftheirplay.It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages,the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.It measures neither our courage,nor our wisdom,nor our devotion to our country.It measures everything,in short,except that which makes life worthwhile,and it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.”-Senator Robert Kennedy,1968GrossDomesticProduct“doesGDP Does Not Value:nthequalityoftheenvironmentnleisuretimennon-marketactivity,suchasthechildcareaparentprovideshisorherchildathomenanequitabledistributionofincomeGDPDoesNotValue:thequalityThen Why Do We Care About GDP?nHavingalargeGDPenablesacountrytoaffordbetterschools,acleanerenvironment,healthcare,etc.nManyindicatorsofthequalityoflifearepositivelycorrelatedwithGDP.ForexampleThenWhyDoWeCareAboutGDP?GDP and Life Expectancy in 12 CountriesLife expectancy(in years)Real GDP per capitaU.S.GermanyJapanNigeriaMexicoRussiaBrazilChinaPakistanBangladeshIndiaIndonesiaGDPandLifeExpectancyin12GDP and Adult Literacy in 12 CountriesAdult Literacy(%of population)Real GDP per capitaU.S.GermanyJapanRussiaNigeriaMexicoBrazilChinaPakistanBangladeshIndiaIndonesiaGDPandAdultLiteracyin12CGDP and Internet Usage in 12 CountriesInternet Usage(%of population)Real GDP per capitaU.S.GermanyJapanMexicoRussiaBrazilChinaGDPandInternetUsagein12CConsumerPriceIndexConsumerCHAPTER 24 MEASURING THE COST OF LIVINGThe Consumer Price Index(CPI)nMeasuresthetypicalconsumerscostofliving.nThebasisofcostoflivingadjustments(COLAs)inmanycontractsandinSocialSecurity.CHAPTER24MEASURINGTHECOHow the CPI Is Calculated1.Fix the“basket.”TheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS)surveysconsumerstodeterminewhatsinthetypicalconsumers“shoppingbasket.”2.Find the prices.TheBLScollectsdataonthepricesofallthegoodsinthebasket.3.Compute the baskets cost.Usethepricestocomputethetotalcostofthebasket.HowtheCPIIsCalculatedFixtHow the CPI Is Calculated4.Choose a base year and compute the index.TheCPIinanyyearequals5.Compute the inflation rate.The percentage change in the CPI from the preceding period.100 xcost of basket in current yearcost of basket in base yearCPI this year CPI last yearCPI last yearinflationratex 100%=HowtheCPIIsCalculatedChoosEXAMPLEbasket:4pizzas,10lattes$12 x 4 +$3 x 10 =$78$11 x 4 +$2.5 x 10 =$69$10 x 4 +$2 x 10 =$60cost of basket$3.00$2.50$2.00price of latte$122005$112004$102003price of pizzayearCompute CPI in each year2003:100 x($60/$60)=1002004:100 x($69/$60)=1152005:100 x($78/$60)=130Inflation rate:15%115 100100 x 100%=13%130 115115x 100%=using 2003 base year:EXAMPLEbasket:4pizzas,10Whats in the CPIs Basket?WhatsintheCPIsBasket?0Problems With the CPI:Substitution BiasnOvertime,somepricesrisefasterthanothers.nConsumerssubstitutetowardgoodsthatbecomerelativelycheaper.nTheCPImissesthissubstitutionbecauseitusesafixedbasketofgoods.nThus,theCPIoverstatesincreasesinthecostofliving.ProblemsWiththeCPI:SubstProblems With the CPI:Introduction of New GoodsnWhennewgoodsbecomeavailable,varietyincreases,allowingconsumerstofindproductsthatmorecloselymeettheirneeds.nThishastheeffectofmakingeachdollarmorevaluable.nTheCPImissesthiseffectbecauseitusesafixedbasketofgoods.nThus,theCPIoverstatesincreasesinthecostofliving.ProblemsWiththeCPI:IntroProblems With the CPI:Unmeasured Quality ChangenImprovementsinthequalityofgoodsinthebasketincreasethevalueofeachdollar.nTheBLStriestoaccountforqualitychanges,butprobablymissessome,asqualityishardtomeasure.nThus,theCPIoverstatesincreasesinthecostofliving.ProblemsWiththeCPI:UnmeaProblems With the CPInEachoftheseproblemscausestheCPItooverstatecostoflivingincreases.nTheBLShasmadetechnicaladjustments,buttheCPIprobablystilloverstatesinflationbyabout0.5percentperyear.nThisisimportant,becauseSocialSecuritypaymentsandmanycontractshaveCOLAstiedtotheCPI.ProblemsWiththeCPIEachoftTwo Measures of Inflation,1950-2007TwoMeasuresofInflation,195inflationnInflation is defined as the annual rate of change of the general price level in an economy or sustained increase in the average price level.inflationInflationisdefinedThe reasons of InflationnThecost-pushinflationItoccurswhenthecostsofproductionincrease.ThiscouldbeduetowageortaxationrisesorincreasedmaterialcostsnThedemand-pullinflationIthappenswhenthereisanincreaseinaggregatedemandanditisnotpossibletoincreasesupplyofthegoodsandservicesdemandednThemixedtypeinflationItiscausedbytheforceofdemandsideandcostsidetogether.ThereasonsofInflationThecoThe problems of inflationnIthitsthoseonfixedincomesveryhardbecausetheywillbeunabletopurchasethesamequantityofg&s.nItalsohitsthosewhohavenopowerofanykindtonegotiateonwages.nItassiststheborrowerandpenalizesthesaver.nFirmsmayinitiallyreceivehigherpricesandbecomecomplacentandnotstriveforefficiency.nConsumersmaydecidetospendratherthansavemakingtheproblemworse.nSomefirmsmaynotbeabletosurvive.TheproblemsofinflationIthiThe solutions to inflationnTheclassicalsolutionsnThekeynesiansolutionsnThemonetaristsolutionsThesolutionstoinflationTheThe Classical solutions nThepioneeroftheclassicalschool:AdamSmith,aScot,whoisregardedasthefatherofEconomics.nTheviewoftheclassicaleconomists：AdamSmithandthefollowersbelievethatthemarketandthelawsofsupplyanddemandshouldbeleftalonetoregulateaneconomy.Theydeemthattheinflationcanbesolvedbytheforceofdemandandsupplyitself.AdamSmith(1723-1790)TheClassicalsolutionsThepiThe Keynesian solutionsnThefatheroftheKeynesianism:JohnMaynardKeynesnTheviewsoftheKeynesianschool:TheyarguethattheequilibriumoftheMacroeconomycanonlybeobtainedbymanagementofaggregatedemandandaggregatesupply.Theybelievethatinflationoccurswhenaggregatedemandexceedsaggregatesupply.ToreduceinflationKeynesianssuggeststhatGovtmustacttoreduceconsumptionexpenditure,investmentexpenditureandgovernmentexpenditure.JohnMaynardKeynes(1883-1946)TheKeynesiansolutionsThefatThe Monetarist solutionsnThefounderofthemonetaristschool:MiltonFriedmannTheviewsofmonetaristfollowers:Miltonandhisassociatesarguethatinflationisamonetaryphenomenon.Thecauseofinflationisthatthereistoomuchmoneyintheeconomy.Theypointoutthatthecorrectwaytogetridofinflationistoreducethesupplyofmoney.Toensurethatthereisneitherinflationnordeflation,monetaristbelieveitisnecessarytoensurethatthesupplyofmoneymatchesthegrowthorreductionofoutputintheeconomy.MiltonFriedman(1912-2006)TheMonetaristsolutionsThefoUnemploymentUnemploymentUnemploymentanditsmeasurementUnemploymentHow Is Unemployment Measured?nDescribingUnemployment:ThreeBasicQuestionsHowdoesgovernmentmeasuretheeconomysrateofunemployment?Whatproblemsariseininterpretingtheunemploymentdata?Howlongaretheunemployedtypicallywithoutwork?HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?DHow is Unemployment Measured?nNaturalRateofUnemploymentThenatural rate of unemploymentisunemploymentthatdoesnotgoawayonitsowneveninthelongrun.Itistheamountofunemploymentthattheeconomynormallyexperiences.HowisUnemploymentMeasured?NHow Is Unemployment Measured?nBasedontheanswerstothesurveyquestions,theBLSplaceseachadultintooneofthreecategories:EmployedUnemployedNotinthelaborforceHowIsUnemploymentMeasured?BHow Is Unemployment Measured?nEmployedvs.unemployedTheBLSconsidersapersonanadultifheorsheisover16yearsold.Apersonisconsideredemployedifheorshehasspentsomeofthepreviousweekworkingatapaidjob.Apersonisunemployedifheorsheisontemporarylayoff,islookingforajob,oriswaitingforthestartdateofanewjob.Apersonwhofitsneitherofthesecategories,suchasafull-timestudent,homemaker,orretiree,isnotinthelaborforce.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?EHow Is Unemployment Measured?nLaborForceThelabor forceisthetotalnumberofworkers,includingboththeemployedandtheunemployed.TheBLSdefinesthelaborforceasthesumoftheemployedandtheunemployed.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?LThe Breakdown of the Population in 2004AdultPopulation(223.4 million)Labor Force(147.4 million)Employed(139.3 million)Not in labor force(76.0 million)Unemployed(8.1 million)TheBreakdownofthePopulatioHow Is Unemployment Measured?nTheunemployment rateiscalculatedasthepercentageofthelaborforcethatisunemployed.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?TThe Labor-Market Experiences of Various Demographic GroupsTheLabor-MarketExperienceso Labor Force Participation Rates for Men and Women Since 19501008060402001950195519601965197019751980198519902000Labor-ForceParticipationRate(in percent)WomenMen19952005LaborForceParticipationRatUnemploymentanditsclassificationUnemploymentThe unemployment in the short run nThecyclicalunemploymentCyclical unemploymentreferstotheyear-to-yearfluctuationsinunemploymentarounditsnaturalrate.Itisassociatedwithwithshort-termupsanddownsofthebusinesscycle.nTheseasonalunemploymentseasonal unemployment referstothosewhoseoccupationsaregenerallyvulnerabletotheseasonalchange.Theygenerallyworkinfarming,constructionandtourism.TheunemploymentinthesThe unemployment in the long runnThenaturalunemploymentmeansthefullemploymentinthelongrun.nItisgenerallycausedbythreefactorsnFrictionalunemploymentnStructuralunemploymentnInstitutionalunemploymentTheunemploymentinthelongFrictional unemploymentnFrictional unemploymentreferstotheunemploymentthatresultsfromthetimethatittakestomatchworkerswithjobs.Inotherwords,ittakestimeforworkerstosearchforthejobsthatarebestsuittheirtastesandskills.LaborimmobilityInformationasymmetryFrictionalunemploymentFrictioJOB SEARCH nJob searchistheprocessbywhichworkersfindappropriatejobsgiventheirtastesandskills.nItresultsfromthefactthatittakestimeforqualifiedindividualstobematchedwithappropriatejobs.JOBSEARCHJobsearchisthepJOB SEARCH nThisunemploymentisdifferentfromtheothertypesofunemployment.nItisnotcausedbyawageratehigherthanequilibrium.nItiscausedbythetimespentsearchingforthe“right”job.JOBSEARCHThisunemploymentiWhy Some Frictional Unemployment Is InevitablenSearchunemploymentisinevitablebecausetheeconomyisalwayschanging.nChangesinthecompositionofdemandamongindustriesorregionsarecalledsectoralshifts.nIttakestimeforworkerstosearchforandfindjobsinnewsectors.WhySomeFrictionalUnemploymePublic Policy and Job SearchnGovernmentprogramscanaffectthetimeittakesunemployedworkerstofindnewjobs.nTheseprogramsincludethefollowing:Government-runemploymentagenciesPublictrainingprogramsUnemploymentinsurancePublicPolicyandJobSearchGoPublic Policy and Job SearchnGovernment-runemploymentagenciesgiveoutinformationaboutjobvacanciesinordertomatchworkersandjobsmorequickly.nPublictrainingprogramsaimtoeasethetransitionofworkersfromdecliningtogrowingindustriesandtohelpdisadvantagedgroupsescapepoverty.PublicPolicyandJobSearchGoPublic Policy and Job SearchnUnemployment insuranceisagovernmentprogramthatpartiallyprotectsworkersincomeswhentheybecomeunemployed.nOffersworkerspartialprotectionagainstjoblosses.nOfferspartialpaymentofformerwagesforalimitedtimetothosewhoarelaidoff.PublicPolicyandJobSearchUnPublic Policy and Job SearchnUnemploymentinsuranceincreasestheamountofsearchunemployment.reducesthesearcheffortsoftheunemployed.mayimprovethechancesofworkersbeingmatchedwiththerightjobs.PublicPolicyandJobSearchUnStructural unemploymentnStructural unemploymentistheunemploymentthatresultsbecausethenumberofjobsavailableinsomelabormarketsisinsufficienttoprovideajobforeveryonewhowantsone.nIndustrystructureupdatingPrimaryindustrySecondaryindustryTertiaryindustryStructuralunemploymentStructuPublic Policy and Job SearchnStructuralunemploymentoccurswhenthequantityoflaborsuppliedexceedsthequantitydemanded.nStructuralunemploymentisoftenthoughttoexplainlongerspellsofunemployment.nWhyis