HP Supply Chain Best Practices

2007 Hewlett-Packard Development Company,L.P.The information contained herein is subject to change without notice HP Supply Chain Best PracticesHP供应链母本（最佳实践）Brian CargilleAPJ Manager,SPaMSPaM亚太经理Agenda议程Beer Game啤酒游戏HP supply chain today今日HP供应链HP Supply Chain InnovationsHP供应链创新Forecasting预测Supply Chain Network Design供应链网络设计Inventory and Capacity Optimization库存和产能优化Warranty保修Product Design for Supply Chain为供应链的产品设计2024/5/42HP Supply Chain Today今日惠普供应链nHPs Supply Chain leadership continuously evaluates and supports the requirements of our customers while simultaneously executing in the most efficient and cost effective way possibleHP的供应链领导团队持续的评估和支持客户的需求，同时，以最有效和最有成本竞争力的方式实施nHPs Supply Chain operates on the principle that one Supply Chain model does not serve the needs of all customers.HPs Supply Chain strategy is based on a flexible,modular set of Supply Chain pathways that enables HP to deliver on customer requirements while supporting their buying preferences.HPs Supply Chain enables both direct and indirect routes to market to reach customers in over 148 countries around the worldHP供应链在运营过程中坚持单一供应链模式不能满足所有客户的需求。HP的供应链战略是建立在一个灵活的模块化的模式上，保证HP能够依据客户需求进行货物或者服务交付，同时支持客户的购买偏好。HP供应链在全球148个国家支持直接和间接到市场和客户的模式。2024/5/43HP Supply Chain Today今日惠普供应链（续）nHPs Supply Chain enables HP to respond to a variety of complex market conditions while ensuring we can out perform our competition.It is the engine behind HPs continuous effort to grow market share in the highly competitive and dynamic personal computing and enterprise storage and server markets.HP recently captured leadership positions in both.At the same time HPs Supply Chain continuously sustains our established leadership positions in the imaging and printing markets.HP供应链帮助HP能够针对不同的复杂市场状况作出有效反应，同时确保HP保持竞争力。HP供应链是企业内部强大的引擎，帮助HP在高度竞争和动态的个人计算、企业存储和服务市场上持续提高市场份额。最近HP取得了在这两个市场的领导地位。同时HP的供应链持续帮助HP维持在映象和打印市场的领导地位。nProof of HPs operations excellence can be seen in HP consistently strong growth and financial performance.HP的精益运营可以通过HP业务持续的强劲增长和财务绩效得到证明。2024/5/44Four Key Activities4个关键的活动What we focus on in HP Supply ChainHP供应链关注什么Supply Chain Balancing Act供应链平衡Supply Chain Operations供应链运营Operating Principles运营原则Price价格Performance绩效Quality质量Availability货物可获取能力Value价值Support支持CustomerRequirements客户需求MinimizeCosts成本最小化Continuously managing Supply Chain operations to minimize cost持续管理供应链运营，使其成本最小化Enabling the HP business Model支持HP业务模式Products产品Modular Supply Chain:模块化的供应链Flexible&cost effective灵活&低成本 No touchLow touchHigh valueCTOPlan计划Source寻源Make制造Deliver交付HP ownedCMODMFull turn keyGuided turnKeyBuy/sellRTM退回管理Cost minimizing vectors成本最小化要素Manufacturing 制造Procurement shared service采购（共享服务）Logistics shared service物流（共享服务）True collaboration with partners for mutual success与合作伙伴共赢的真诚合作Operate responsibility:运营责任SEREICC,code of conduct运营方式DfSC为供应链设计Deliver value:交付价值Customers:TCE客户:客户全程体验Shareholders股东Profit利润Market share市场份额SKU varietySKU差异NPI window management新产品导入视窗管理Market dynamics市场动态Customer segment/s match客户细分匹配IP investment知识产权投资Volumes数量GlobalDelivery全球交付Routes to Market入市路径Direct直接Indirect间接Channel indirect渠道间接Regional requirements区域需求148 countries148个国家Localization本土化Global trade regulations国际贸易规则2024/5/45计划计划寻源寻源制造制造交付交付计划计划寻源寻源制造制造交付交付Horizontal leverage points横向协调点 Creates efficiencies,minimizes costs,drives alignment创造效率、成本最小化、保持一致PSGIPGTSGPlanManufactureFulfillSourcePlanManufactureFulfillSourcePlanManufactureFulfillSourceSocial and Environmental Programs社会和环保Logistics Services物流Procurement采购Quality质量Assurance of supply供应保证Risk mgmt风险管理Access to new technology新技术导入3PL partners第三方合作伙伴International Direct Ship国际直接发运Factory Express工厂快件LegoCode of Conduct运作方式Take back召回Compliance合规Design for SC针对供应链设计Leverage平衡Simplify简化Align一致2024/5/46Strategic Planning and Modeling(SPaM)战略计划和建模 Purpose目标目标drive competitive advantage through the application of analytics to HPs critical operations and business problems通过对通过对HP一些重要而复杂的运营一些重要而复杂的运营和业务问题进行分析的应用，提高和业务问题进行分析的应用，提高惠普竞争力惠普竞争力na team of world-class experts in decision support with extensive consulting experience and advanced analytical and technical skills拥有一个世界一流的专家团队世界一流的专家团队来支持决策，具备丰富的咨询经验以及超高的分析和技术能力nan innovation lab to develop leading-edge business processes and methodologies创新实验室创新实验室开发领先的业务流程和方法论 na knowledge broker across the HP businessesHP集团内部跨BU的知识库知识库na 15+year track record on a wide variety of complex,mission-critical problems拥有超过超过15年的实践经验年的实践经验处理各种复杂和高难的问题2024/5/47SPaM partnership modelSPaM合作模式Executive sponsors:HP Supply Chain Board发起人：HP供应链委员会Hosted by IPG,serves all HP businesses由IPG托管，服务所有BUProjects co-led and funded directly businesses项目由BU直接出资，由BU和SPaM团队共同领导 Typically 3 months long with 2 SPaMsters 50%time一般情况下项目历时3个月Account managers as contact points for scoping a project or“drive-by”consulting(10 hrs)客户经理作为项目的联系点确定项目范围，或者由咨询主导（10小时）IPG,PSG/TSG,EMEA,APJKey metric:satisfied clients关键指标：满足客户Client decides what success looks like客户决定怎样才算成功SPaM screening:in our“sweet spot”,with$5M+business impact or VP-level prioritySPaM：sweet spot:大于5百万美金的业务影响，或者VP层面提出的优先级2024/5/48SPaM value proposition:driving competitive advantage through analyticsSPaM的价值定位：通过数据分析创造竞争力Data analysis/predictive modeling数据分析/预测建模Financial/spreadsheet modeling 财务/表单建模Optimal decision-making under uncertainty不确定情况下的最佳决策Client Business Challenges客户业务挑战客户业务挑战Neutral facilitation with end-to-end profitability view端到端盈利能力视角的协调Problem-framing问题框架Strategy synthesis or Excel/Access tool development战略合成或者Excel/Access工具开发Knowledge brokering across BUs,regions跨BU跨地区知识共享SPaM ExpertiseSPaM专家资专家资源源Client check-ins客户输入“Drive-by”consulting咨询主导Workshops专门工作会议分析分析Analytics咨询咨询ConsultingBetter Data-Driven Decision or Process更好的基于数据更好的基于数据的决策或流程的决策或流程Innovation(Methods,Tools,IP)创新（方法、创新（方法、工具、工具、IP）Pan-HP Tools,Methods,Programs覆盖整个覆盖整个HP的工具、方法和项目群的工具、方法和项目群Projects项目项目2024/5/49Analytics分析分析Consulting咨询咨询Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling数据分析和预测模型Spreadsheet and Financial Modeling财务/表单建模Decision-Making Under Uncertainty不确定情况下的决策Stochastic Inventory Theory库存理论Risk Analysis and Simulation风险分析和模拟Deterministic Optimization决策优化Problem-Framing and Synthesis问题框架和假设Neutral Facilitation with End-to-End View端到端盈利能力视角Knowledge Brokering Across Businesses跨业务知识共享 SC Network Design供应链网络设计Inventory&Capacity Setting库存和产能设计Planning(Ops,Orders,Projects)计划（运营、订单、项目）Forecasting预测Complexity Management/DfSC构成管理/为供应链设计Customer&Marketing Analytics*客户&市场分析Other Business Decision Support*其它业务决策支持The SPaM“sweet spot”:analytics and consulting skills matched to complex business problems：SPaM“sweet spot”:分析和咨询技能解决复杂业务问题业务问题业务问题Business ProblemsOps运营X-Functional职能*Customer&Marketing Analytics examples:channel replenishment strategy;pricing as an inventory balancing lever;risk analysis of big deal pricing;statistical benchmarking of margin and attach rates across accounts 客户和市场分析示例：渠道补货策略、库存平衡定价、大单定价风险分析、毛利率统计对标、不同客户毛利统计对标等*“Other Business Support”examples:warranty decision support;statistical benchmarking applied to returns or logistics rates;portfolio decision model for IP licensing 其它业务支持示例：保修决策支持、退货或物流费率的统计对标、知识产权许可组合决策模型2024/5/410The SPaM problem-solving process for projectsSPAM项目问题处理流程Clarify problem context and appropriateness(i.e.,“is this the right problem to be working on?”)理清问题的情境和合适性（是不是要解决的问题？）Structure the problem by breaking it down into components将问题逐步分解细化 Framing and Structuring the Problem提出问题框架提出问题框架Developing Hypotheses进行假设进行假设Designing the Analysis设计分析计设计分析计划划Synthesizing整合整合Use ingoing knowledge of problem and business context as start利用已掌握的知识和对业务情境的了解作为起点Refine with initial data-gathering interviews提炼原始数据收集访谈Employ rough-cut/pareto analysis to identify key drivers利用帕拉图等分析工具抓住核心动因Structure the analysis and work plan to test/prove the hypotheses制定分析和工作计划来验证相关的假设“Prune”the work plan where possible需要时修改工作计划Gather information to test the hypotheses收集信息验证相关假设Interviews访谈Business data业务数据External information外部信息Draw conclusions from the information collected从收集的信息总结结论Focus on insights and“so-whats”关注“内涵”和”结果会怎样呢”Identify what can be learned beyond the specific problem提炼在此具体问题基础上，可以收获什么（问题内和问题外）Learn as you go along持续学习Application of problem-solving skills across a typical project一个项目中的问题处理技能的应用示例一个项目中的问题处理技能的应用示例Project setup项目启动Closure项目结束Project delivery项目交付Relationship management关系管理Phases of engagement项目阶段项目阶段Gathering and Analyzing Information收集和分析信息收集和分析信息2024/5/411SPaM as an innovation labSPaM是一个创新试验室nDevelop new business processes and methodologies to solve critical business problems faced by the hp businesses while maintaining a world class reputation for the company and the group开发新的业务流程和方法论解决HP面临的重要业务问题，确保HP世界一流的声誉more than 12 patent applications filed between 00 and 06 covering innovation in inventory and capacity algorithms,forecasting methodologies and metrics,financial flows,modeling tools,and new business models20002006年之间超过12个专利个专利应用存档，覆盖库存和产能计算创新、预测方法论和指标、财务流、建模工具、新业务模式等领域articles in a variety of business and operation research journals and magazines including Harvard Business Review,Sloan Review,Supply Chain Management Review,Operations Research/Management Science and others在众多知名商业和运营研究杂志上发表大量论文论文包括哈佛商业评论、供应链管理研究、Sloan Review、Operations Research/Management Science 等等white papers on a wide variety of topics for internal HP audiences大量针对HP内部的涉及众多主题的白皮书白皮书2024/5/412Roles and responsibilities角色和职责co-leads the project with SPaM与SPaM共同主导项目provides necessary resources提供必要资源data collection数据收集Client客户co-leads the project with customer与客户共同主导项目full-fledged member of the project team项目团队成员technical experts技术专家model development模型开发SPaMscenario definition情境定义model specifications,data requirements模型设计、数据需求validation of data and model数据和模型验证analysis and recommendation分析和建议2024/5/413Keys to a successful projectworking together项目成功的关键 一起努力nopen communication开放式沟通ngathering and understanding data收集和理解数据ndiscussing model logic(avoid the“black box”)讨论模型逻辑（避免“黑箱”）nvalidating assumptions and results验证假设和结论ngood data,quickly数据好，快速nquick turnaround on requests需求快速反应naccurate information(critical to project success!)信息精确（对项目成功至关重要）njoint problem solving合作解决问题nwe have complementary skills and knowledge-lets use them!我们有互补的知识和技能-让我们共享它2024/5/414Examples of HP-SPaM efforts in forecasting惠普SPaM在预测方面的应用示例Topic主题Deliverables交付品Example Past Projects项目经验SPaM PublicationsSPaM出版物1.Forecast Process Improvement预测流程改进lAssessment:governance&alignment,metrics,methodology,tools分析：管控&协调，指标，方法论、工具lProcess recommendations:流程建议 lobjectives(why:whats it used for)目标（为什么：用来干什么）loutputs(what,when)输出（什么，何时）lroles&responsibilities(who)角色和职责（谁）lROI analysis:whats it worth?投资回报率分析：值得吗？lBasic recommendations on metrics&methodology指标和方法论的初步建议lIPG EMEA Commercial(Jun02)lIPG EMEA Consumer(Jun02)lHP Home and Home Office(May 06)Forecast process assessment guide预测流程分析指导2024/5/415Examples of HP-SPaM efforts in forecasting惠普SPaM在预测方面的效用示例Topic主题Deliverables交付品Example Past Projects项目经验举例SPaM PublicationsSPaM输出文档2.Forecast Metrics预测指标SKU-level and portfolio-level metrics for forecast accuracy为了更精确的预测，需要SKU层面和产品组合层面的指标Control limits for monitoring forecast error and bias管控预测错误和偏差的控制限定Excel/Access tool with manual data loads可手工输入数据的Excel/Access工具BCS(Oct03)NSS Americas(Jun03)ISS Americas(Apr03)“Measure,Then Manage”,APICS(Assoc.for Ops.Mgmt.),Oct023.Forecast Methodology预测方法论Data-driven,causal-factor approach to forecasting(e.g.,short life cycle products)数据驱动，动因预测方法（如生命周期较短的产品）statistical analysis of predictive factors预测动因的统计分析estimated improvement and ROI改进和投资回报率Excel/Access tool with manual data loads可手工输入数据的Excel/Access工具Cameras PLC Tool(Nov04)PSGA Emerging Tech PLC Tool(Apr03)NA Inkjet HW PLC Tool(Oct02)Inkjet Hardware Long-Term Forecasting Tool(Dec03)“Forecasting for Short-Lived Products:Hewlett Packards Journey”,J.of Business Forecasting,Dec022024/5/416 Four Elements of Good Forecasting良好预测4要素Tools工具(Automate)（自动化）Process 流程(Understand)（理解）Metrics指标(Measure)（衡量）Methodology方法论(Improve)（改进）How we currently measure and reward现状：如何绩效评估和 奖赏Generating alternative metric schemes产生可选的指标体系Governance管控ImpactHypotheses or lists of frequent problems假设或常见问题列表List of good practices良好实践列表Template for process流程模板Interviews with decision makers决策人访谈The last step.New tools often not required for impact.最后一步。Goals are:目标-Save labor 节约人工-Better accuracy 准确率提高IT requirementsIT需求-Robustness(beyond prototypes)-Links to SAP/other systems与SAP/其它系统整合Select best way to forecast选择最佳预测方法Specific technical steps or issues具体技术步骤或者问题-Seasonality 季节性-Connect rates 连接率 -Other drivers 其它动因2024/5/417Metrics dashboard tool to review key metrics and allow scenario analysis for alignment指标指示板工具，回顾关键指标，允许情境分析Process流程(understand)理解Metrics指标(measure)衡量Methods方法(improve)改进Tools工具(automate)自动化HP Home&Home Office Ops Forecasting惠普H&H办公运营预测Project Completion:May 2006Business need业务需求业务需求运营和收入预测的协调流程很慢且不清晰No forecast metrics across store没有门店的预测指标缺乏结构化的流程来预测运营能力需求（呼叫中心、IT、仓库）运营预测分析成孤岛状SPaM 贡献贡献Assessed gaps between current process and best practice,and designed store-wide forecast alignment process分析现状流程和母本之间差距，设计新的门店层面的预测流程Developed statistical forecasting tools and metrics dashboard tool开发了统计预测工具和指标指示工具Recommendations建议建议Adopt proposed process and newly developed tools采用建议的流程和新开发的工具Value delivered创造的价值创造的价值Operations planning aligned with revenue forecast and Aspire planning运营计划与收入预测和Aspire计划保持一致Improved ops forecast accuracy to reduce costs of excess and shortage(multi-$M/yr)运营预测准确性的提高降低了成本Improve quality of inputs to Aspire planning process提升了Aspire计划流程输入信息的质量“Our forecasts are more accurate,the operational team is more aligned and we spend less time in meetings.Going forward,we will use what we learned on this project to make improvements in other areas of the store where we need to forecast.“我们的预测变得更加准确，运营团队协调更好，开会消耗的时间减少。持续改进，我们将在此项目中学到的用在其它预测领域，帮助改进。-Cindi Zelanis,Manager Store Operations-HP Home&Home OfficeForecastingExcellence精益预测精益预测Cross-functional team with clear R&R to align key monthly marketing and ops forecasts跨职能团队，角色和职责分工明确，确保月度市场和运营预测一致Statistical forecasting tools:统计预测工具daily calls日电话daily orders日订单quarterly sales季度销售Statistical analysis of key predictive factors关键预测动因的统计分析2024/5/418The NA IPG HW Forecasting StoryNA IPG HW预测历史PL5M m-4 forecast accuracy(A-F)/F by sub platform,Oct 2000 June 2004PL5M m-4预测精度(A-F)/F，2000年10月2004年6月Before以前After以后9/02Range of error“before”is lower than typical APJ supplies error2024/5/419Outline目录Historical Context历史情境Business Conditions&Requirements业务状况和需求Tool Capabilities工具能力Challenges Faced面临的挑战Keys to Success成功要素Next Steps下一步工作Closure2024/5/420Historical ContextForecasting with ad-hoc Excel spreadsheets预测所用的Excel表格没有统一Many key elements were being factored into the forecasts(life cycle profile,seasonality,price drops,etc.)很多因素都被输入到预测（生命周期、季节性、降价等）No robust mechanism for handling key forecast elements缺乏管理预测动因的完善机制Limited ability to track the impact of changes or events(e.g.,price reductions,high channel inventory,big deals)缺乏跟进变革和事项影响的能力（降价、高渠道库存、大单）No mechanism for rigorous analysis of forecast metrics(accuracy,bias,etc.)缺乏预测指标分析的机制（准确性、偏差等）Little consistency or sharing of best practices among analysts分析师之间缺乏一致性和最佳实践分享No aggregate analysis&reporting capability or process缺乏总体分析和报告能力或者流程2024/5/421Business Conditions&Requirements业务状况和需求Forecast accuracy critical to platform profitability预测的精确度对平台盈利能力至关重要预测的精确度对平台盈利能力至关重要Long lead times(Asian sourcing)长周期（亚太寻源）长周期（亚太寻源）Short product life cycle(PLC)产品生命周期短暂产品生命周期短暂Run-rate actuals not available until late in build cycle不能提供实时进度数据，直到制造周期才可以提取相关数据不能提供实时进度数据，直到制造周期才可以提取相关数据Existing spreadsheet methodology was lacking in robustness and statistical rigor现有表单方法缺乏活力和严格统计标准现有表单方法缺乏活力和严格统计标准Investigation showed time-series methods to be ineffective for short PLC products调研显示，对短生命周期产品来说，基于时间序列的方法是无效的调研显示，对短生命周期产品来说，基于时间序列的方法是无效的Tool&process requirements:工具工具&流程需求流程需求a uniform forecast-generating process一个统一的预测产生流程一个统一的预测产生流程 ability to rigorously represent PLC profiles,seasonality,&events代表产品生命周期概揽、季节性和事件性的能力代表产品生命周期概揽、季节性和事件性的能力capture of best practices 最佳实践获取最佳实践获取better documentation of forecast assumptions预测假设更加文本化预测假设更加文本化forecast accuracy feedback loop预测准确性反馈闭环预测准确性反馈闭环aggregate analysis capability(due to product line convergence)综合分析能力综合分析能力2024/5/422Tool Capabilities工具能力Generates a demand profile for new products based on life-cycle,run-rate and seasonality parameters基于生命周期、run-rate和季节参数创建新产品需求概揽Enables powerful adjustment of demand profile by overlaying a suite of event templatesEasy to reflect changes in timing of product launches产品上市时，更加容易反应其变化Self-documenting by maintaining underlying forecast context in a central database在集中的数据库维护预测“Auto-update”feature allows time-series checking once actuals are available自动更新特点提供了一旦实际数据出土即可进行按照时间序列的检查Enables rapid forecast iterations through roll-up and drill-down capabilityXXXXEnables simple and effective forecast accuracy analysis简单有效预测准确度分析2024/5/423Start with a generic PLC Product Life Cycle起点是产品生命周期Runrate assumption,12 month life,heavy stock-in periodrunrate 假设，12个月生命，高库存时期2024/5/424Layer on seasonality profile,statistically derived from history从历史数据统计分析得出季节性变化规律2024/5/425Layer on events such as price drops 特殊事件驱动的变化（如降价）e.g.,this product had price drops in Mar03 and Jun03如本产品3月号和6月3号有降价活动2024/5/426Layer on additional events;附加事件驱动的变化Capture explanatory comments using the Event View使用Event View抓取解释说明2024/5/427Aggregate forecast is plotted below,综合的预测如下面的点图And can be compared to actuals and short-term demand signal可以和实际数字和短期需求对比2024/5/428John Solomon约翰.所罗门Was VP Consumer Imaging&Printing,IPG North America now promoted前IPG北美副总裁现已升职Executive Sponsor执行发起人Forecast accuracy,a critical metric for business management,improved through the use of the PLC tool.预测精度，对业务管理至关重要的指标。通过产品生命周期工具能够大大改进提升精度The implementation of PLC tool has increased analyst productivity:实施PLC工具大大提高了分析师效率：It allowed the analysts to spend more time on understanding business trends and developing insights.它给分析师们提供了更多的时间去理解业务趋势和发展内涵The PLC tool raised the quality of the aggregate views and insight provided to management.PLC工具提升了为管理层提供的全局和内涵的质量Analysts are more easily able to share best practices and learnings after standardizing on the PLC tool.PLC工具标准化让分析师更加容易分享最佳实践和学习经验2024/5/429Results:Improved Forecast Accuracy效果：改进的预测精确度More accurate forecasts更加准确的预测Aggregated views of the business整体视角看业务Improved analyst productivity:提升分析师效率Leveraging of last months forecast平衡上个月的预测Sharing of best practices最佳实践分享Leveraging of one anothers forecasts不同预测之间的平衡Ability to cross-train and back-fill互相培训，互相支持的能力Capabilities that allow in-depth analysis深度分析能力PL5M m-4 forecast accuracy(A-F)/F by sub platform,Oct 2000 June 2004Before PLC toolAfter PLC tool9/022024/5/430Challenges Faced面临的挑战Forecast stakeholders believed time-series methods produced“better”results预测专家认为基于时间序列的方法，结论更合理The merits of a PLC-approach werent immediately apparent产品生命周期方法的优点不能立刻明显体现Risk that the tool would have to be abandoned due to standardization on APO demand planner鉴于APO需求计划的标准化，质疑该工具已经不适用。Obtaining IT support to migrate from a prototype to an operational tool获取IT支持将原型转变为一个可以操作的工具。2024/5/431Keys to Success成功关键1.Low risk/low investment required低风险、低投资2.A close-knit team comprising a strong theoretician,a flexible and user-oriented developer,and a solid set of seasoned forecast practitionersxxx3.Management support throughout the project贯穿项目始终的管理支持4.Superior conceptual approach&mathematics as demonstrated through higher forecasting accuracy通过较高的预测精度验证了超级的概念方法和数学模型5.Exceptional usability of the tool工具的例外使用能力6.Flexible/powerful“event templates”(enabling simple capture and documentation of forecast drivers)灵活/强力的“事件模板”（驱动预测动因的简便抓取和文件化）7.Ease of iteration and aggregation(through roll-up and drill-down capability)xxxx2024/5/432Examples of SPaM support in supply chain network analysisSPaM在供应链网络分析方面的支持示例Topic主题Deliverables交付品Example Past Projects项目经验SPaM PublicationsSPaM出版物1.Supply chain network strategy供应链网络战略Understanding of current state理解现状mapping of SC length and locations匹配供应链长度和地点 cost analysis:TE,IDC,MOH,tax成本分析：