汇丰银行-信贷风险管理讲义

1 HSBC 汇丰银行 2 l Risk averse given Banks high gearing and thin marginl倾向低风险，由于银行高负债和低利息差l Proper goals and measures with controlsl适当的目标和措施及控制l The Line takes primary (or joint) responsibility of the credit decisionsl 前线部门对贷款决定负主要（或共同）责任l Burden of proof on the Linel 证明应贷款责任在于前线部门 l Never feel embarrassed to ask “dumb” questionsl 不用担心问“愚笨”的问题 3 Prerequisite:先决条件l Senior managements support (positive intervention?)l高层管理的支持（积极干预？）l People (technical capability, integrity and inter-personal skills)l人员（技术能力、人格和人际交往能力）l Organization and Systeml组织及系统 Attribute:特征l Independent 独立性l No bottom-line responsibility 没有盈利责任 l Professional 专业性l Firm and fair 坚定和公正 4 Board of Directors董事会行政总裁（总部）GHQCEOAPHCEO行政总裁（亚太区）AMHGM总经理 （香港及中国大陆）Line前线部门信贷总经理GM CreditCCO首席信贷官HD Credit 信贷部门主管Concurrence认同Approval 审批Approval审批Approval审批Country Risk/Bank Risk国家风险/银行风险Market Risk/Credit Risk市场风险/信用风险Market Risk/Credit Risk市场风险/信用风险Credit信用 5 l Centralized vs Decentralized集权/分权l Individual vs Committee (composition and decision making process)个人/委员会（债务组成及决策过程） Factors to consider: 需要考虑的因素 l Individual / Collective Decision / Responsibilityl个人/集体决策/责任l Senior managements trust 高层管理的信任l Quality of staff (at centre and in the line) 员工的素质 （管理人员和一线职员）l Specialization of staff 员工专业化l Effectiveness of internal control system 内部控制系统的功效 l Quality of service (e.g. turnaround time) 服务的质量（例如：报废项目时间）l Others (fraud prevention etc.) 其他（防范欺诈等） 6 Structure and Account Cycle结构及客户信贷周期Policy/政策Approval审批Risk Monitoring风险监督Recovery追偿Head of CRM信贷风险管理部Loans贷款Unhealthy loans不良贷款Review回顾Review回顾 7 l Key business objectives 主要业务目标l Structure and Responsibility 结构及职责l Economic Outlook 经济预期l Sectoral Analysis 行业分析l Business Strategy and Focus 业务战略和重点l Risk Assessment and Credit Appetite 风险评估和信贷偏好l Lending Guidelines 贷款指南l Credit Products, Procedures and Advice 信贷产品、程序和建议 8 l Market positioning and risk appetite 市场定位和风险偏好 Return 回报 Private Bank Commercial Bank Subprime Lender 私人银行 商业银行 次级贷款人 -Large corporate 大型企业-Middle market 中端市场-Small business 小型企业-Consumer 消费者 Risk 风险 9 l Corporate Banking - Large corporate - Judgemental (plus Rating, KMV, MRA) 公司金融-大型公司-主观判断（加评分，KMV, MRA) l Commercial Banking Medium sized corporate Judgemental 公司金融-中型企业-主观判断 l Business Banking Small business Scoring 商务理财-小型企业-评分 l Personal Financial Services Consumer Scoring 个人金融服务-消费者-评分 10 Delinquency Rates, All Banks, SA (USA)贷款不良率 美国所有银行 02468101214 91Q1 91Q3 92Q1 92Q3 93Q1 93Q3 94Q1 94Q3 95Q1 95Q3 96Q1 96Q3 97Q1 97Q3 98Q1 98Q3 99Q1 99Q3 00Q1 00Q3 01Q1 01Q3Residential *住房贷款Commercial *商业房地产贷款C&I Loans工商贷款Total Loans & Leases贷款和租赁总额 % 11 Charge-Off Rates, All Banks, SA (USA)冲销率 所有银行 美国0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0 91Q1 91Q392Q192Q393Q193Q3 94Q194Q395Q195Q3 96Q196Q397Q197Q398Q1 98Q399Q199Q300Q1 00Q301Q101Q3Commercial *商业房地产贷款C&I Loans工商贷款Total Loans & Leases贷款及租赁总额 % Residential *住房贷款 12 Loan Quality in HK香港地区贷款质量 -10%-5%0%5%10%15% 20% NPL % 不良贷款比例Credit card charge-off ratio (annualised)年信用卡冲销比例Mortgage Delinquency Rate住房贷款不良率Real GDP (year on year % change)年实际GDP变化率 13 Corporate and Commercial Banking 公司金融 （大型和中型企业）l Operating Risks运营风险 Borrower Grade 借款人评级l Financial Risks (including Projection) (PD) 财务风险（包括财务预测）（违约机率）l Account Conduct 来往状况 l Security and Facility Structure抵押品、贷款结构及评级Facility Grade 设施评级(Property + Marketable Securities) （财产和可交易的证券） 14 l More vulnerable to economic downturn 易受经济下滑的影响l Information problematic (low financial transparency and reliability) 信息问题（财务信息透明度及可信度不高）l High operating risks (relatively weak in management skills) 高运营风险（较弱的管理能力）Characteristics of the Scorecard 记分卡的特征l Companys financials 公司财务状况l Companys credit history and behavior 公司信用历史和表现l Companys attributes (age, sector, size etc) 公司性质（成立时间的长短、所属行业、规模等） l Owners scores 公司所有者的评分 15 英国小型公司主要业务的设立与终止 设立千/每季度终止 16 Criteria Based Lending 根据准则所进行的信贷l More commonly for secured products, e.g. mortgage, car loans, HP and loans secured by liquid assets 多用于担保产品，例如：住房贷款、汽车贷款、租赁及用流动资产担保的贷款l Security coverage 抵押品/贷款 比例l Income coverage 收入/还款 比例 17 Mortgage Loan Quality (HK)香港地区住房贷款质量 1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00% 8.00% Dec-98Feb-99Apr-99Jun-99Aug-99Oct-99Dec-99Feb-00Apr-00Jun-00Aug-00Oct-00Dec-00Feb-01Apr-01Jun-01Aug-01Oct-01Dec-01Feb-02 050100150200 250300 Mortgage Delinquency Rate住房贷款不良率Unemployment rate失业率Residential Price Index (1989=100) (RHS)住房价格指数 （以1989年为100） 18 Credit Card Quality信用卡质量 3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%Dec-98Mar-99Jun-99Sep-99Dec-99Mar-00Jun-00Sep-00Dec-00Mar-01Jun-01Sep-01Dec-01Mar-02-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000 No. of Bankruptcy Petitions破产申请Credit card charge-off ratio (annualised)年信用卡冲销率Unemployment rate 失业率Bankruptcy Petitions (RHS) 破产申请 （RHS) 19 l Rank ordering 分级l Application and Behavioral Scoresl申请信贷和行为评分l Generic and Customized Scoresl通用评分和专用评分l Credit card, personal loans, etc 信用卡，个人贷款等 20 l Management Information 管理信息(CPAN, IBIS, REMIND, SCOPE, etc)l Grade classification / migrationl评级分类/变动情况l Score distribution / flow ratel分值分布/流动率 21 1. Interest margin: hurdle rates, e.g. bonds. 利率边际：障碍率，例如：债券2. RORA: return on the overall relationship 总体关系的回报3. EP: cost of capital 经济利润：资本成本 Factors to consider: 考虑因素l PD (Borrowers grade) 违约机率l LGD 损失比率l Term 年期l Cost of capital 资本成本 l Competition 竞争l Business potential 发展潜力 22 Objective 目标Risk vs Relationship 风险 或 关系Strategy 战略Rehabilitation OR Exit 贷款康复或退出 23 Workout - Factors for success 债务重组 - 成功的因素- legal system (Scheme of Arrangement, Individual Voluntary Arrangement, Bankruptcy Law)- 法律体系 (债务安排计划、个人自愿安排、破产法）- professional support (lawyer, accountant, financial advisor, asset search agent, debt collector)- 专业支持 （律师、会计师、财务顾问、资产搜寻代理、债务追偿人）- customer self-rescue (transparency, commitment and cooperation)- 客户 - 自救措施 （透明、承担与合作） - multi-bank - supportive, expeditious and equitable the Hong Kong Approach- 多头银行 -支持态度、迅速及公平 （香港原则） 24 Feedback 回馈 - lessons learnt - Credit Alert (early warning signs), training course- 吸取教训 每月简讯（预警信号）、培训课程- loophole - change in credit policy or procedures, management information- 漏洞 - 信用政策或程序的改变，管理信息 - cross-stream application and experience sharing PFS & CIB e.g. concept of restructuring, receivership- 跨部门应用及经验分享 个人信贷和商业信贷 - 例如：债务重组和资产接管的概念 25 Human Resources人力资源- specialized skills understanding of legal system, able to face and handle confrontation, negotiation, leadership, decision-making- 专业技能 - 了解法律体系，能够应对挑战及对立局面，具备谈判技巧、领导才能和决策的能力- built on solid credit background- 具备良好的授信/信贷知识及经验- flat reporting structure- 扁平的组织架构- support from senior management- 高层管理的支持