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精品资料网精品资料网 Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction李俊伟李俊伟 November 2002Beijing项目管理者联盟项目管理者联盟,MYPM.NETContentnEmergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)nPortfolio Management in Financial MarketnOverview of PPM nPPM,Process and Techniques2The Emergence of Project Portfolio Managementn1952,Modern Portfolio Theory(MPT),Harry Markowitz,Journal of Finance,Portfolio Selectionn1990,Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Prize,dominant approach used to manage risk and return within financial marketsn1981,F.Warren McFarian,Portfolio Approach to Information Systems,HBR,to employ a risk-based approach to the selection and management of IT projects.n1990s,a broader use of ideas of portfolio management n1998,John Thorp,The Information Paradox.Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions.nPresent,portfolio management as central elements of good investment management3Portfolio Management,the overall pictureFocus(Strategic Planning)Source:PM Solutions,Portfolio Management,Dianne BridgesSelect(Portfolio Management)Manage(Project Management)4ContentnEmergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)nPortfolio Management in Financial MarketnOverview of PPM nPPM,Process and Techniques5The Old Philosophy about Portfoliou Dont put all your eggs in one basket.uRisk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait in human beings.6Return and Risk in Financial Marketexpected returnstandard deviation(%)capital appreciationgrowth of income0 6 12 18 24 30 3620181614121086420incomeinflationT-billsintermediate-termgovernmentbondslong-termgovernment bondslong-termcorporate bondslarge company stockssmallcompanystocksstabilityof principal7The Role of Combining SecuritiesuThe expected return of a portfolio is a weighted average of the component expected returns.8The Role of Combining Securities10two-securityportfolio risk=riskA+riskB+interactiveriskuThe total risk of a portfolio comes from thevariance of the components and from the relationships among the components.9The Role of Combining Securitiesexpected returnrisk betterperformanceu A portfolio dominates all others if no other equally risky portfolio has a higher expected return,or if no portfolio with the same expected return has less risk.u The point of diversification is to achieve a given level of expected return while bearing the least possible risk.10The Efficient Frontier:Optimum Diversification of Risky Assetsexpected returnrisk(standard deviation of returns)impossibleportfoliosdominatedportfoliosefficient frontiernThe optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given returnnThe optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontier11The Efficient Frontier vs Naive Diversificationu As portfolio size increases,total portfolio risk,on average,declines.After a certain point,however,the marginal reduction in risk from the addition of another security is modest.total riskNon-diversifiablerisknumber of securitiesu Naive diversification is the random selectionof portfolio components without conducting any serious security analysis.12Risk Reduction with DiversificationNumber of SecuritiesSt.DeviationMarket RiskUnique Risk13nMarket or systematic risk:risk related to the macro economic factor or market indexnUnsystematic or firm specific risk:risk not related to the macro factor or market indexnTotal risk=Systematic+UnsystematicComponents of Risk14Two-Security Portfolios with Different Correlations =113%8E(r)St.Dev12%20%=.3 =-1 =-115nRelationship depends on correlation coefficientn-1.0 +1.0nThe smaller the correlation,the greater the risk reduction potentialnIf=+1.0,no risk reduction is possiblePortfolio Risk/Return,Correlation Effects16Structuring a Portfolio:Asset Allocationattitudetoward riskneed forreturnrealizedreturnand riskwith thepassageof timestocksbondsrealestatecashforeignequitiesPortfolioASSETCLASSESindividual choice asset class mix investment results17ContentnEmergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)nPortfolio Management in Financial MarketnOverview of PPM nPPM,Process and Techniques18What is project portfolio managementnPortfolio Management is the project selection process and involves identifying opportunities:assessing the organizational fit;analyzing the costs,benefits,and risks;and developing and selecting a portfolio.nThe art of project portfolio management is:doing the right thing,selecting the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.19Portfolio Management is:nDefining goals and objectives clearly articulate what the portfolio is expected to achievenUnderstanding,accelerating,and making tradeoffs determine how much to invest in one thing as opposed to something elsenIdentifying,eliminating,minimizing,and diversifying risk select a mix of investments that will avoid undue risk,will not exceed acceptable risk tolerance levels,and will spread risks across projects and initiatives to minimize adverse impactsnMonitoring portfolio performance understand the progress that the portfolio is making toward the achievement of the goals and objectivesnAchieving a desired objective have the confidence that the desired outcome will likely be achieved given the aggregate of investments that are made20Portfolio Management is NotnDoing a series of project specific calculations and analyses,such as return on investment,benefit-cost analysis,net present value,payback period,rate of return,and then adjusting them all to account for risk.these are project specificnCollecting after-the-market information on projects to produce a report that the organization hopes will satisfy some organizational reporting requirement.21The benefits of Portfolio ManagementnHaving a structure in place to select the right projects and immediately remove the wrong projectsnPlacing resources where it matters,reducing wasteful spendingnLinking portfolio decisions to strategic direction and business goalsnEstablishing logic,reasoning,and a sense of fairness behind portfolio decisionsnEstablishing ownership amongst the staff by involvement at the right levels22ContentnEmergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)nPortfolio Management in Financial MarketnOverview of PPM nPPM,Process and Techniques23Project Portfolio Management,Process&Technique nFour stepsnProject Evaluation MatrixnEvaluation Criteria nExamples24Step 1:Define the PortfolionFirst,establish the overall portfolio mission.This mission statement will be used to initially determine what projects are in or out of the portfolio.nThe mission statement can be simple,like:The Intranet Portfolio covers all projects to be deployed on the corporate intranet.25Step 2:Gather the ProjectsnNow,gather all the projects together that you think might be in the portfolio.nThis may not be the list you already have.Some projects,including duplicate efforts,may be underway in other parts of the organization.26Step 3:Begin WeedingnOnce the project list is established,begin weeding the list down.Remove projects that:Are duplicate efforts.Here is an opportunity to save money by pooling two or more efforts into a single project.Do not meet the mission area.Some projects may be under your wing but do not fit in the mission area.Remove them from your portfolio and place them elsewhere.27Step 4:Begin EvaluatingnOnce the portfolio list is set,begin evaluating each project to determine what the overall portfolio will look like.nUsing the four-quadrant matrix here,evaluate the projects against two major criteria:What are the potential risks in implementing this project?What are the potential benefits in implementing this project?28QuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighProject Evaluation Matrix29Using the MatrixnThe matrix is used as a scoring tool to map projects against the evaluated level of risk and the evaluated potential beneficial impact of a project.nProjects are evaluated on both risk and benefit from low to high using a series of questions and scores.nProjects are then evaluated in the worksheet and decisions made for inclusion and balancing the portfolio.30QuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighMatrix Decision RegionsProjects to remove from the portfolioProjects to keep in the portfolio31Evaluation CriterianThe Evaluation Matrix uses two basic criteria:Risk and Benefit.nFive sample risk areas:Risk of Completion On Time(Schedule Risk)Risk of Managing Multiple Organizations(Organizational Risk)Risk of Technologies Used for the Application(Technological Risk)Risk of Not Proceeding with the Project(Risk of Not Doing It)Projects Implementation and Maintenance CostsnFive sample benefit areas:Number of potential groups or users needing applicationProjects Impact on Cross-Functional ActivitiesProjects Impact on Improving Internal CultureProjects Impact on Improving External Customer ServiceEstimated Benefit/Cost Ratio(Potential Savings or Profits)32Risk Assessment Scorecard-illustrationRisk CategoryWeighted Scale ExampleLow Risk Project ScoreHigh Risk Project ScoreSchedule Risk Assessment25%15Organizational Risk Assessment20%24Technological Risk Assessment20%17Risk of Not Doing Project25%41Project Support Costs10%14TOTAL RISK SCORES100%92633Benefits Assessment Scorecard-illustrationBenefit CategoryWeighted Scale ExampleLow Benefit Project ScoreHigh Benefit Project ScorePotential User Base20%25Cross-Functional Improvements10%16Improving Corporate Culture20%26Improving Customer Service25%05Benefit/Cost Ratio25%15TOTAL RISK SCORES100%62734Plot the Project on the MatrixQuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighOur Low Risk/Low Benefit Project Might Be Rejected or DelayedOur High Risk/High Benefit Project Might Be Approved35What is the differencenPortfolio Management in the financial marketnProject management36Questions and Answers37Thank You!李俊伟李俊伟Contact at:george.leeTalentARoom 318,JinOu Plaza,#2 An Zhen Li,Chaoyang,Beijing,China 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