资源描述
ImgoingtotalktoyouaboutsomestuffthatsinthisbookofminethatIhopewillresonatewithotherthingsyouvealreadyheard,andIlltrytomakesomeconnectionsmyself,incaseyoumissthem.IwanttostartwithwhatIcalltheofficialdogma.Theofficialdogmaofwhat?Theofficialdogmaofallwesternindustrialsocieties.Andtheofficialdogmarunslikethis:ifweareinterestedinmaximizingthewelfareofourcitizens,thewaytodothatistomaximizeindividualfreedom.Thereasonforthisisboththatfreedomisinandofitselfgood,valuable,worthwhile,essentialtobeinghuman.Andbecauseifpeoplehavefreedom,theneachofuscanactonourowntodothethingsthatwillmaximizeourwelfare,andnoonehastodecideonourbehalf.Thewaytomaximizefreedomistomaximizechoice.Themorechoicepeoplehave,themorefreedomtheyhave,andthemorefreedomtheyhave,themorewelfaretheyhave.This,Ithink,issodeeplyembeddedinthewatersupplythatitwouldntoccurtoanyonetoquestionit.Anditsalsodeeplyembeddedinourlives.Illgiveyousomeexamplesofwhatmodernprogresshasmadepossibleforus.Thisismysupermarket.Notsuchabigone.Iwanttosayjustawordaboutsaladdressing.175saladdressingsinmysupermarket,ifyoudontcountthe10differentextra-virginoliveoilsand12balsamicvinegarsyoucouldbuytomakeaverylargenumberofyourownsaladdressings,intheoffchancethatnoneofthe175-speakers,CDplayer,tapeplayer,tuner,amplifier.Andinthisonesingleconsumerelectronicsstore,therearethatmanystereosystems.Wecanconstructsixandahalfmilliondifferentstereosystemsoutofthecomponentsthatareonofferinonestore.Youvegottoadmitthatsalotofchoice.Inotherdomains-theMP3player,nosehairtrimmer,andcremebruleetorch.Andifbysomechanceyouhaventseenthatinyourstoreyet,youcanrestassuredthatonedaysoonyouwill.Andwhatthisdoesisitleadspeopletowalkintotheirstoresaskingthisquestion.Anddoyouknowwhattheanswertothisquestionnowis?TheanswerisNo.Itisnotpossibletobuyacellphonethatdoesntdotoomuch.So,inotheraspectsoflifethataremuchmoresignificantthanbuyingthings,Thesameexplosionofchoiceistrue.Healthcare-itisnolongerthecaseintheUnitedStatesthatyougotothedoctor,andthedoctortellsyouwhattodo.Instead,yougotothedoctor,andthedoctortellsyou,well,wecoulddoA,orwecoulddoB.Ahasthesebenefits,andtheserisks.Bhasthesebenefits,andtheserisks.Whatdoyouwanttodo?Andyousay,Doc,whatshouldIdo?Andthedocsays,Ahasthesebenefitsandrisks,andBhasthesebenefitsandrisks.Whatdoyouwanttodo?Andyousay,Ifyouwereme,Doc,whatwouldyoudo?Andthedocsays,ButImnotyou.Andtheresultis-wecallitpatientautonomy,whichmakesitsoundlikeagoodthing.Butwhatitreallyisisashiftingoftheburdenandtheresponsibilityfordecision-makingfromsomebodywhoknowssomething-namelythedoctor-tosomebodywhoknowsnothingandisalmostcertainlysickandthusnotinthebestshapetobemakingdecisions-namelythepatient.Theresenormousmarketingofprescriptiondrugstopeoplelikeyouandme,which,ifyouthinkaboutit,makesnosenseatall,sincewecantbuythem.Whydotheymarkettousifwecantbuythem?Theansweristhattheyexpectustocallourdoctorsthenextmorningandaskprescriptionstobechanged.Somethingasdramaticasouridentityhasnowbecomeamatterofchoice,asthisslideismeanttoindicate.Wedontinheritanidentity,wegettoinventit.Andwegettore-inventourselvesasoftenaswelike.Andthatmeansthateverydaywhenyouwakeupinthemorning,youhavetodecidewhatkindofpersonyouwanttobe.Withrespecttomarriageandfamily,therewasatimewhenthedefaultassumptionthatalmosteveryonehadisthatyougotmarriedassoonasyoucould,andthenyoustartedhavingkidsassoonasyoucould.Theonlyrealchoicewaswho,notwhen,andnotwhatyoudidafter.Nowadays,everythingisverymuchupforgrabs.Iteachwonderfullyintelligentstudents,andIassign20-weareblessed,asCarlwaspointingout,withthetechnologythatenablesustoworkeveryminuteofeverydayfromanyplaceontheplanet-excepttheRandolphHotel.(Laughter)Thereisonecorner,bytheway,thatImnotgoingtotellanybodyabout,wheretheWiFiworks.ImnottellingyouaboutitbecauseIwanttouseit.Sowhatthismeans,thisincrediblefreedomofchoicewehavewithrespecttowork,isthatwehavetomakeadecision,againandagainandagain,aboutwhetherweshouldorshouldntbeworking.Wecangotowatchourkidplaysoccer,andwehaveourcellphoneononehip,andourBlackberryonourotherhip,andourlaptop,presumably,onourlaps.Andeveniftheyreallshutoff,everyminutethatwerewatchingourkidmutilateasoccergame,wearealsoaskingourselves,ShouldIanswerthiscellphonecall?ShouldIrespondtothisemail?ShouldIdraftthisletter?Andeveniftheanswertothequestionisno,itscertainlygoingtomaketheexperienceofyourkidssoccergameverydifferentthanitwouldvebeen.Soeverywherewelook,bigthingsandsmallthings,materialthingsandlifestylethings,lifeisamatterofchoice.Andtheworldweusedtoliveinlookedlikethis.Thatistosay,thereweresomechoices,butnoteverythingwasamatterofchoice.Andtheworldwenowliveinlookslikethis.Andthequestionis,isthisgoodnews,orbadnews?Andtheanswerisyes.(Laughter)Weallknowwhatsgoodaboutit,soImgoingtotalkaboutwhatsbadaboutit.Allofthischoicehastwoeffects,twonegativeeffectsonpeople.Oneeffect,paradoxically,isthatitproducesparalysis,ratherthanliberation.Withsomanyoptionstochoosefrom,peoplefinditverydifficulttochooseatall.Illgiveyouoneverydramaticexampleofthis,astudythatwasdoneofinvestmentsinvoluntaryretirementplans.AcolleagueofminegotaccesstoinvestmentrecordsfromVanguard,thegiganticmutualfundcompanyofaboutamillionemployeesandabout2,000differentworkplaces.Andwhatshefoundisthatforevery10mutualfundstheemployeroffered,rateofparticipationwentdowntwopercent.Youoffer50funds-10percentfeweremployeesparticipatethanifyouonlyofferfive.Why?Becausewith50fundstochoosefrom,itssodamnhardtodecidewhichfundtochoosethatyoulljustputitoffuntiltomorrow.Andthentomorrow,andthentomorrow,andtomorrow,andtomorrow,andofcoursetomorrownevercomes.Understandthatnotonlydoesthismeanthatpeoplearegoingtohavetoeatdogfoodwhentheyretirebecausetheydonthaveenoughmoneytoputaway,italsomeansthatmakingthedecisionissohardthattheypassupsignificantmatchingmoneyfromtheemployer.Bynotparticipating,theyarepassingupasmuchas5,000dollarsayearfromtheemployer,whowouldhappilymatchtheircontribution.Soparalysisisaconsequenceofhavingtoomanychoices.AndIthinkitmakestheworldlooklikethis.(Laughter)Youreallywanttogetthedecisionrightifitsforalleternity,right?Youdontwanttopickthewrongmutualfund,oreventhewrongsaladdressing.Sothatsoneeffect.Thesecondeffectisthatevenifwemanagetoovercometheparalysisandmakeachoice,weenduplesssatisfiedwiththeresultofthechoicethanwewouldbeifwehadfeweroptionstochoosefrom.Andthereareseveralreasonsforthis.Oneofthemisthatwithalotofdifferentsaladdressingstochoosefrom,ifyoubuyone,anditsnotperfect-and,youknow,whatsaladdressingis?Itseasytoimaginethatyoucouldhavemadeadifferentchoicethatwouldhavebeenbetter.Andwhathappensisthisimaginedalternativeinducesyoutoregretthedecisionyoumade,andthisregretsubtractsfromthesatisfactionyougetoutofthedecisionyoumade,evenifitwasagooddecision.Themoreoptionsthereare,theeasieritistoregretanythingatallthatisdisappointingabouttheoptionthatyouchose.Second,whateconomistscallopportunitycosts.DanGilbertmadeabigpointthismorningoftalkingabouthowmuchthewayinwhichwevaluethingsdependsonwhatwecomparethemto.Well,whentherearelotsofalternativestoconsider,itiseasytoimaginetheattractivefeaturesofalternativesthatyoureject,thatmakeyoulesssatisfiedwiththealternativethatyouvechosen.Heresanexample.ForthoseofyouwhoarentNewYorkers,Iapologize.(Laughter)Buthereswhatyouresupposedtobethinking.HeresthiscoupleontheHamptons.Veryexpensiverealestate.Gorgeousbeach.Beautifulday.Theyhaveitalltothemselves.Whatcouldbebetter?Well,damnit,thisguyisthinking,ItsAugust.EverybodyinmyManhattanneighborhoodisaway.Icouldbeparkingrightinfrontofmybuilding.Andhespendstwoweeksnaggedbytheideathatheismissingtheopportunity,dayafterday,tohaveagreatparkingspace.Opportunitycostssubtractfromthesatisfactionwegetoutofwhatwechoose,evenwhenwhatwechooseisterrific.Andthemoreoptionstherearetoconsider,themoreattractivefeaturesoftheseoptionsaregoingtobereflectedbyusasopportunitycosts.Heresanotherexample.Nowthiscartoonmakesalotofpoints.Itmakespointsaboutlivinginthemomentaswell,andprobablyaboutdoingthingsslowly.Butonepointitmakesisthatwheneveryourechoosingonething,yourechoosingnottodootherthings.Andthoseotherthingsmayhavelotsofattractivefeatures,anditsgoingtomakewhatyouredoinglessattractive.Third:escalationofexpectations.ThishitmewhenIwenttoreplacemyjeans.Iwearjeansalmostallthetime.Andtherewasatimewhenjeanscameinoneflavor,andyouboughtthem,andtheyfitlikecrap,andtheywereincrediblyuncomfortable,andifyouworethemlongenoughandwashedthemenoughtimes,theystartedtofeelOK.SoIwenttoreplacemyjeansafteryearsandyearsofwearingtheseoldones,andIsaid,Youknow,Iwantapairofjeans,heresmysize.Andtheshopkeepersaid,Doyouwantslimfit,easyfit,relaxedfit?Youwantbuttonflyorzipperfly?Youwantstonewashedoracidwashed?Doyouwantthemdistressed?Youwantbootcut,youwanttapered,blahblahblah.Onandonhewent.Myjawdropped,andafterIrecovered,Isaid,Iwantthekindthatusedtobetheonlykind.(Laughter)Hehadnoideawhatthatwas,soIspentanhourtryingonallthesedamnjeans,andIwalkedoutofthestore-truthbetold-100flavors,damnit,oneofthemshouldvebeenperfect.AndwhatIgotwasgood,butitwasntperfect.AndsoIcomparedwhatIgottowhatIexpected,andwhatIgotwasdisappointingincomparisontowhatIexpected.Addingoptionstopeopleslivescanthelpbutincreasetheexpectationspeoplehaveabouthowgoodthoseoptionswillbe.Andwhatthatsgoingtoproduceislesssatisfactionwithresults,evenwhentheyregoodresults.Nobodyintheworldofmarketingknowsthis.Becauseiftheydid,youwouldntallknowwhatthiswasabout.Thetruthismorelikethis.(Laughter)Thereasonthateverythingwasbetterbackwheneverythingwasworseisthatwheneverythingwasworse,itwasactuallypossibleforpeopletohaveexperiencesthatwereapleasantsurprise.Nowadays,theworldwelivein-weaffluent,industrializedcitizens,withperfectiontheexpectation-thebestyoucaneverhopeforisthatstuffisasgoodasyouexpectittobe.Youwillneverbepleasantlysurprisedbecauseyourexpectations,myexpectations,havegonethroughtheroof.Thesecrettohappiness-thisiswhatyouallcamefor-thesecrettohappinessislowexpectations.(Laughter)(Applause)Iwanttosay-justalittleautobiographicalmoment-thatIactuallyammarriedtoawife,andshesreallyquitewonderful.Icouldnthavedonebetter.Ididntsettle.Butsettlingisntalwayssuchabadthing.Finally,oneconsequenceofbuyingabad-fittingpairofjeanswhenthereisonlyonekindtobuyisthatwhenyouaredissatisfied,andyouaskwhy,whosresponsible,theanswerisclear.Theworldisresponsible.Whatcouldyoudo?Whentherearehundredsofdifferentstylesofjeansavailable,andyoubuyonethatisdisappointing,andyouaskwhy,whosresponsible?Itisequallyclearthattheanswertothequestionisyou.Youcouldhavedonebetter.Withahundreddifferentkindsofjeansondisplay,thereisnoexcuseforfailure.Andsowhenpeoplemakedecisions,andeventhoughtheresultsofthedecisionsaregood,theyfeeldisappointedaboutthem,theyblamethemselves.Clinicaldepressionhasexplodedintheindustrialworldinthelastgeneration.Ibelieveasignificant-nottheonly,butasignificantcontributortothisexplosionofdepression,andalsosuicide,isthatpeoplehaveexperiencesthataredisappointingbecausetheirstandardsaresohigh.Andthenwhentheyhavetoexplaintheseexperiencestothemselves,theythinktheyreatfault.Andsothenetresultisthatwedobetteringeneral,objectively,andwefeelworse.Soletmeremindyou.Thisistheofficialdogma,theonethatwealltaketobetrue,anditsallfalse.Itisnottrue.Theresnoquestionthatsomechoiceisbetterthannone,butitdoesntfollowfromthatthatmorechoiceisbetterthansomechoice.Theressomemagicalamount.Idontknowwhatitis.Imprettyconfidentthatwehavelongsincepassedthepointwhereoptionsimproveourwelfare.Now,asapolicymatter-Imalmostdone-asapolicymatter,thethingtothinkaboutisthis.Whatenablesallofthischoiceinindustrialsocietiesismaterialaffluence.Therearelotsofplacesintheworld,andwehaveheardaboutseveralofthem,wheretheirproblemisnotthattheyhavetoomuchchoice.Theirproblemisthattheyhavetoolittle.SothestuffImtalkingaboutisthepeculiarproblemofmodern,affluent,Westernsocieties.Andwhatissofrustratingandinfuriatingisthis:SteveLevitttalkedtoyouyesterdayabouthowtheseexpensiveanddifficulttoinstallchildseatsdonthelp.Itsawasteofmoney.WhatImtellingyouisthattheseexpensive,complicatedchoices-itsnotsimplythattheydonthelp.Theyactuallyhurt.Theyactuallymakeusworseoff.-notjustpoorpeople-becauseofhowallthisexcesschoiceplaguesus.Sotoconclude.Youresupposedtoreadthiscartoon,and,beingasophisticatedperson,say,Ah!Whatdoesthisfishknow?Youknownothingispossibleinthisfishbowl.Impoverishedimagination,amyopicviewoftheworld-perhapsevenforthefish,certainlyforus.Buttheabsenceofsomemetaphoricalfishbowlisarecipeformisery,and,Isuspect,disaster.Thankyouverymuch.(Applause)
展开阅读全文