《交易心理分析》中英对照版

.TRADING IN THE ZONE交易心理分析Trading in the zone : master the market with confidence, discipline, and a winning attitude / by Mark Douglas, 交易心理分析用自信、纪律和赢家的态度来掌握市场/作者：马克道格拉斯DEDICATION献词This book is dedicated to all of the traders I have had the pleasure of working with over the last 18 years as a trading coach. Each of you in your own unique way is a part of the insight and guidance this book will provide to those who choose to trade from a confident, disciplined, and consistent state of mind.本书献给过去 18 年来我所认识的所有交易者，作为交易教练，我和他们在一起很快乐。你们中的每一个人用自己独特的方式，为本书提供见解和指导，引导那些用自信、纪律和持续一致思想交易的人们。TABLE OF CONTENTS目录FOREWORD 4序言 4PREFACE 5引子 5ATTITUDE SURVEY 8态度调查表 .8CHAPTER 1 THE ROAD TO SUCCESS: FUNDAMENTAL, TECHNICAL, OR MENTAL ANALYSIS? 13第 01 章 成功之路：基本面，技术面或思想分析面？ 13IN THE BEGINNING: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.13开始：基本面分析 .13THE SHIFT TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.14转到技术分析 14THE SHIFT TO MENTAL ANALYSIS.15转到思想分析 15CHAPTER 2 THE LURE (AND THE DANGERS) OF TRADING .25第 02 章 交易的诱惑（和危险） .25THE ATTRACTION 26吸引 26THE DANGERS .29危险 29THE SAFEGUARDS 33安全措施 .33PROBLEM: The unwillingness to Create Rules .35问题：不愿意制定原则 .35PROBLEM: Failure to Take Responsibility 36问题：不负责任 36.PROBLEM: Addiction to Random Rewards .38问题：对随机的回报上瘾 38PROBLEM: External versus Internal Control .39问题：外部控制对抗内部控制 39CHAPTER 3 TAKING RESPONSIBILITY 40第 03 章 自己承担责任 .40SHAPING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT.40塑造你的思想环境 .40REACTING TO LOSS 44对亏损的反应 44WINNERS, LOSERS, BOOMERS, AND BUSTERS54赢家，输家，暴发户和亏损者 .54CHAPTER 4 CONSISTENCY: A STATE OF MIND .60第 04 章 持续一致性：一种思想状态 60THINKING ABOUT TRADING61考虑交易 .61REALLY UNDERSTANDING RISK63完全明白风险 63ALIGNING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT67让你的思想持续一致 .67CHAPTER 5 THE DYNAMICS OF PERCEPTION.70第 05 章 认知的动力 .70DEBUGGING YOUR MENTAL SOFTWARE .71为你的思想软件找茬 .71PERCEPTION AND LEARNING 74认知和学习 .74PERCEPTION AND RISK 79认知和风险 .79THE POWER OF ASSOCIATION 79联想的力量 .79CHAPTER 6 THE MARKETS PERSPECTIVE85第 06 章 市场的角度 .85THE “UNCERTAINTY” PRINCIPLE .85“不确定” 原则 .85MARKETS MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHARACTERISTIC (IT CAN EXPRESS ITSELF IN AN ALMOST INFINITE COMBINATION OF WAYS ) 90市场最基本的特征（它几乎可以用任何组合方式来表达自己） 90CHAPTER 7 THE TRADERS EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES .96第 07 章 交易者的优势：考虑概率 .96PROBABILITIES PARADOX: RANDOM OUTCOME, CONSISTENT RESULTS96概率的似非而是：随机的结果，持续一致的收入 96TRADING IN THE MOMENT .100有机会就交易 100MANAGING EXPECTATIONS .106.管理期望 .106ELIMINATING THE EMOTIONAL RISK.112消灭情绪风险 112CHAPTER 8 WORKING WITH YOUR BELIEFS .115第 08 章 和信念一起工作 115DEFINING THE PROBLEM .116给问题下定义 116DEFINING THE TERMS 118对几个说法下定义 .118HOW THE FUNDAMENTAL TRUTHS RELATE TO THE SKILLS 120这些基本事实和技术如何联系起来 .120MOVING TOWARD “THE ZONE” 123进入这个“状态” .123CHAPTER 9 THE NATURE OF BELIEFS124第 09 章 信念的天性 .124THE ORIGINS OF A BELIEF .126信念的来源 .126BELIEFS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR LIVES .128信念和信念对我们生活的影响 .128BELIEFS VS. THE TRUTH 133信念对抗事实 133CHAPTER 10 THE IMPACT OF BELIEFS ON TRADING .135第 10 章 信念对交易的影响 135THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTICS OF A BELIEF .136信念的基本特点 136SELF EVALUATION AND TRADING.148自我评估和交易 148CHAPTER 11 THINKING LIKE A TRADER .150第 11 章 像交易者一样思考 150THE MECHANICAL STAGE 152机械阶段 .152THE ROLE OF SELF-DISCIPLINE 157自律的作用 .157CREATING A BELIEF IN CONSISTENCY 162创造一个相信持续一致性的信念 .162EXERCISE: LEARNING TO TRADE AN EDGE LIKE A CASINO .165练习：向赌场学习利用优势交易 .165A FINAL NOTE.176最后的提醒 .176ATTITUDE SURVEY 176态度调查 .176INDEX 错误！未定义书签。英语索引（张轶略去） .错误！未定义书签。.FOREWORD序言The great bull market in stocks has led to an equally great bull market in the number of books published on the subject of how to make money trading the markets. Many ideas abound, some good, some not, some original, some just a repackaging of earlier works. Occasionally, though, a writer comes forward with something that really sets him or her apart from the pack, something special. One such writer is Mark Douglas.大牛市导致出版社出了很多书，这些书都是谈如何通过交易赚钱。有很多思想，有些很好，有些则不行，有些是原创的，有些只是把以前的作品再重新包装一下而已。偶尔，一些作者会脱颖而出，写出特殊的作品。其中一个作者就是马克道格拉斯。Mark Douglas, in Trading in the Zone, has written a book that is the accumulation of years of thought and research - the work of a lifetime - and for those of us who view trading as a profession, he has produced a gem.在马克道格拉斯的书交易心理分析中，展示了他多年的思想和研究一生的心血对于我们把交易当作职业的人来说，他给我们的是一块宝石。Trading in the Zone is an in-depth look at the challenges that we face when we take up the challenge of trading. To the novice, the only challenge appears to be to find a way to make money. Once the novice learns that tips, brokers advice, and other ways to justify buying or selling do not work consistently, he discovers that he either needs to develop a reliable trading strategy or purchase one. After that, trading should be easy, right? All you have to do is follow the rules, and the money will fall into your lap.我们在交易时会遇到挑战， 交易心理分析则对这些挑战提供了深刻的见解。对于新手来说，唯一的挑战似乎就是找到赚钱的方法。当新手明白消息，经纪公司的建议和其它买卖方法都不能持续一致赢利时，他发现要么自己设计一个可靠的交易系统，要么去买一个。完成了这个任务，交易就简单了，对不？你要做的就是遵守原则，这样钱就来了。At this point, if not before, novices discover that trading can turn into one of the most frustrating experiences they will ever face. This experience leads to the oft-started statistic that 95 percent of futures traders lose all of their money within the first year of trading. Stock traders generally experience the same results, which is why pundits always point to the fact that most stock traders fail to outperform a simple buy and hold investment scenario.这时，如果新手以前没有体验过的话，现在就会发现交易进入了前所未有的艰难阶段。统计的结果表明，95%的期货交易者会在第一年把钱亏光，而新手就要体验这样的事。股票交易者通常也会体验同样的结果，这就是为什么权威人士说大部分股票交易者的表现还不如买入并持有的投资策略。So, why do people, the majority of whom are extremely successful in other occupations, fail so miserably as traders? Are successful traders born and not made? Mark Douglas says no. Whats necessary, he says, is that the individual acquire the traders mindset. It sounds easy, but the fact is, this mindset is very foreign when compared with the way our life experiences teach us to think about the world.那么，为什么大部分人在做其它职业时超级成功，做交易时就输的这么惨呢？成功的交易者是天生的吗？马克道格拉斯说不是的。他说需要有交易者的思想。这听起来很简单，但事实上，交易者的思想和生活中我们看待世界的方法完全不同。.That 95-percent failure rate makes sense when you consider how most of us experience life, using skills learned as we grow. When it comes to trading, however, it turns out that the skills we learn to earn high marks in school, advance our careers, and create relationships with other people, the skills we are taught that should carry us through life, turn out to be inappropriate for trading. Traders, we find out, must learn to think in terms of probabilities and to surrender all of the skills we have acquired to achieve in virtually every other aspect of our lives. In Trading in the Zone, Mark Douglas teaches us how. He has put together a very valuable book. His sources are his own personal experiences as a trader, a traders coach in Chicago, author, and lecturer in his field of trading psychology.当你想想大部分人在生活中是如何思考的，如何在成长中学习技术的，你就明白 95%的失败率是合理的。我们在学校努力得高分，在职业生涯中往上爬，和别人建立友好关系，这些都是我们在成长中学习的技术技巧，然而对于交易来说，这些技术技巧都是不合适的。交易者必须学习概率，并放弃我们生活中学到的方方面面的技术技巧。马克道格拉斯会在交易心理分析中告诉我们如何做到。这本书很有价值。他自己是交易者、芝加哥的交易教练、作家、交易心理分析演讲家，这些经验是本书的源泉。My recommendation? Enjoy Douglass Trading in the Zone and, in doing so, develop a traders mindset.我有什么推荐？我建议你阅读马克道格拉斯的交易心理分析并形成交易者的思想。Thorn Hartle索恩哈特尔PREFACE引子The goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. What accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful? To me, the determining factor is psychological - the consistent winners think differently from everyone else.每个交易者的目标都是稳定赚钱，但是只有极少数的交易者实现了持续一致地赚钱。他们是如何实现持续一致赚钱的？对我来说，决定因素是心理持续一致的赢家和别人想的不一样。I started trading in 1978. At the time, I was managing a commercial casualty insurance agency in the suburbs of Detroit, Michigan. I had a very successful career and thought I could easily transfer that success into trading. Unfortunately, I found that was not the case. By 1981, I was thoroughly disgusted with my inability to trade effectively while holding another job, so I moved to Chicago and got a job as a broker with Merrill Lynch at the Chicago Board of Trade. How did I do? Well, within nine months of moving to Chicago, I had lost nearly everything I owned. My losses were the result of both my trading activities and my exorbitant life style, which demanded that I make a lot of money as a trader.我 1978 年开始交易。当时，我在密歇根州底特律城郊管理一个商业的伤残保险分公司。我的职业生涯非常成功，我想我可以把我的成功移植到交易中。很不幸，我失败了。到了 1981 年，我对自己一方面要工作，一方又交易不顺而彻底苦恼。于是我搬到芝加哥，在芝加哥交易所美林证券经纪公司找了一份工作，做经纪人。我是怎么做的？嗯，搬到芝加哥 9 个月后，我几乎失去了一切。我本想做交易赚很多钱，但是我的交易行为和昂贵的交易风格让.我几乎失去了一切。From these early experiences as a trader, I learned an enormous amount about myself, and about the role of psychology in trading. As a result, in 1982, I started working on my first book, The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes. When I began this project I had no concept of how difficult it was to write a book or explain something that I understood for myself in a manner and form that would be useful to other people. I thought it was going to take me between six and nine months to get the job done. It took seven and a half years and was finally published by Prentice Hall in 1990. 通过早期的交易，我对自己和交易心理扮演的角色有了很多了解。结果，我在 1982 年开始写我的第一本书有纪律的交易者形成赢家态度 。当我开始写书时，我才知道把自己的思想写成对别人有用的东西是多么难。我以为 69 个月可以完成此书。结果写了 7 年半，于 1990 年由普林蒂斯霍尔出版公司出版。In 1983, I left Merrill Lynch to start a consulting firm, Trading Behavior Dynamics, where I presently develop and conduct seminars on trading psychology and act in the capacity of what is commonly referred to as a trading coach. Ive done countless presentations for trading companies, clearing firms, brokerage houses, banks, and investment conferences all over the world. Ive worked at a personal level, one on one, with virtually every type of trader in the business, including some of the biggest floor traders, hedgers, option specialists, and CTAs, as well as neophytes.1983 年我离开了美林，办了一个顾问公司叫“交易行为动力” ，我设计了一个研讨会，我自己做交易教练，教别人交易心理。我为全世界无数的交易公司、清算公司、经纪公司、银行、投资会议做演讲。我采用一对一的方式，几乎和每种类型的交易者都接触过，包括最大的场内交易者、对冲者、期权专家、商品交易顾问和新手。As of this writing, I have spent the last seventeen years dissecting the psychological dynamics behind trading so that I could develop effective methods for teaching the proper principles of success. What Ive discovered is that, at the most fundamental level, there is a problem with the way we think. There is something inherent in the way our minds work that doesnt fit very well with the characteristics shown by the markets.当我写到这里时，我应经用了 17 年时间剖析交易心理，所以我可以形成有效的方法教别人成功的原则。我发现，从最基本的方面说，我们的思想方式有问题。我们天生的思想模式和市场特点是不搭配的。Those traders who have confidence in their own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful. They no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them spot opportunities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.对自己的交易有自信，知道怎么做，不犹豫的交易者会成功。他们不害怕市场飘忽不定的行为。他们关注能赚钱的信息，而不是关注会增加他们害怕感的信息。While this may sound complicated, it all boils down to learning to believe that: (1) you dont need to know whats going to happen next to make money; (2) anything can happen; and (3) every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience. The trade either works or it doesnt. In any case, you wait for the next edge to appear and go through the process again and again. With this approach you will learn in a methodical, non-random fashion what works and what doesnt. And, just as important, you will build a sense of self-trust so that you wont damage yourself in an environment that has the unlimited qualities the markets have.这听起来也许复杂，总结下来就是你要学习并相信：（1）你不必知道下一步会如何也能赚钱；（2）任何事都会发生；（3）任何时刻都是独特的，这意味着每个优势，每个结果都是独特的体验。交易不是成功就是失败。在每.笔交易中，你等待优势的到来，然后一次又一次地重复这个过程。用这种方法，你就会知道什么有用，什么没用。还有重要的一点，你要自己建立自信，以防止市场无数的特点毁了你。Most traders dont believe that their trading problems are the result of the way they think about trading or, more specifically, how they are thinking while they are trading. In my first book, The Disciplined Trader, I identified the problems confronting the trader from a mental perspective and then built a philosophical framework for understanding the nature of these problems and why they exist. I had five major objectives in mind in writing Trading in the Zone: 大部分交易者不相信他们的交易问题来自他们的思想，更具体地说，是他们的交易思想。在我的第一本书有纪律的交易者中，我用精神的角度来确定交易者的问题，用哲学的框架来解释这些问题的自然性，以及原因。我在写交易心理分析时有 5 个重要的目标：To prove to the trader that more or better market analysis is not the solution to his trading difficulties or lack of consistent results.向交易者证明更多更好的市场分析不能解决交易问题，不能实现持续一致赢利。To convince the trader that its his attitude and “state of mind” that determine his results.让交易者相信他的态度和思想状态决定他的结果。To provide the trader with the specific beliefs and attitudes that are necessary to build a winners mindset, which means learning how to think in probabilities.向交易者提供明确的信念和态度，也就是赢家思想必须的，这意味着如何用概率思考。To address the many conflicts, contradictions, and paradoxes in thinking that cause the typical trader to assume that he already does think in probabilities, when he really doesnt.说明很多冲突的、矛盾的、似是而非的想法，这些想法让交易者以为他在思考概率，其实他没有。To take the trader through a process that integrates this thinking strategy into his mental system at a functional level.带领交易者走过这个过程，把他的思考策略和思想系统结合起来，且具有可操作性。(Note: Until recently, most traders were men, but I recognize that more and more women are joining the ranks. In an effort to avoid confusion and awkward phrasing, I have consistently used the pronoun “he” throughout this book in describing traders. This certainly does not reflect any bias on my part.)（注意：目前，大部分交易者是男性，但我注意到越来越多的女性开始交易。为了避免混乱和表达的不方便，我在本书中一直用“他”来描述交易者。这肯定不代表我有偏见。 ）Trading in the Zone presents a serious psychological approach to becoming a consistent winner in your trading. I do not offer a trading system; I am more interested in showing you how to think in the way necessary to become a profitable trader. I assume that you already have your own system, your own edge. You must learn to trust your edge. The edge means there is a higher probability of one outcome than another. The greater your confidence, the easier it will be to execute your trades. This book is designed to give you the insight and understanding you need about yourself and the nature of trading, so that actually doing it becomes as easy, simple, and stressfree as when youre just watching the market and thinking about doing it.交易心理分析提供了认真的心理方法，让你成为持续一致的赢家。我没有提供交易系统，我更大的兴趣是告诉你如何思考，以成为赢利的交易者。我相信你已经有了自己的系统，有了自己的优势。你必须努力地去相信你的优势。优势意味着比较高的概率。你越自信，你越容易进行交易。本书帮助你深刻认识你自己和交易的本性，这样当你实际操作时，你看着市场，思考交易时，行动就容易了，简单了，压力也小了。In order to determine how well you “think like a trader,” take the following Attitude Survey. There are no right or wrong answers. Your answers are an indication of how consistent your current mental framework is with the way you need to think in order to get the most out of your trading.为了确定你是否“像交易者一样思考， ”请进行下面的态度调查。这里没有正确答案或错误答案。你的答案表明了你的思想框架和尽量多赚钱的想法之间的持续一致性。MARK DOUGLAS马克道格拉斯ATTITUDE SURVEY态度调查表1. To make money as a trader you have to know what the market is going to do next.Agree Disagree作为交易者，如果想赚钱，你必须知道市场下一步怎么走。同意 不同意2. Sometimes I find myself thinking that there must be a way to trade without having to take a loss.Agree Disagree有时候我在想，一定有不亏钱的交易方法。同意 不同意3. Making money as a trader is primarily a function of analysis.Agree Disagree作为交易者，赚钱主要是分析的功能。同意 不同意4. Losses are an unavoidable component of trading.Agree Disagree亏损是交易不可避免的组成部分。同意 不同意5. My risk is always defined before I enter a trade.Agree Disagree我总是在进场前衡量风险。同意 不同意6. In my mind there is always a cost associated with finding out what the market may do next.Agree Disagree我认为，搞清楚市场下一步怎么走总是需要成本的。同意 不同意7. I wouldnt even bother putting on the next trade if I wasnt sure that it was going to be a winner.Agree Disagree如果我不能肯定自己会赢，我根本不会交易。同意 不同意8. The more a trader learns about the markets and how they behave, the easier it will be for him to execute his trades.Agree Disagree交易者对市场和市场行为的了解越多，他就越轻松地执行交易。同意 不同意9. My methodology tells me exactly under what market conditions to either enter or exit a trade.Agree Disagree我的方法很明确地告诉我在什么情况下进场或出场。同意 不同意10. Even when I have a clear signal to reverse my position, I find it extremely difficult to do.Agree Disagree即使我有明确的信号，这个信号叫我平仓，并反向交易，我很难去执行。同意 不同意11. I have sustained periods of consistent success usually followed by some fairly drastic draw-downs in my equity.Agree Disagree我的资金曲线总是有一段时间能保持持续上涨，然后就会灾难性下跌。12. When I first started trading I would describe my trading methodology as haphazard, meaning some success in between a lot of pain.Agree Disagree.当我第一次开始交易时，我觉得我的交易方法有偶然性，也就是说有时能赚点，更多的则是痛苦。同意 不同意13. I often find myself feeling that the markets are against me personally.Agree Disagree我总是感觉市场在和我作对。同意 不同意14. As much as I might try to “let go,” I find it very difficult to put past emotional wounds behind me.Agree Disagree我努力想“放手”时，发现很难忘记过去的情绪创伤。同意 不同意15. I have a money management philosophy that is founded in the principle of always taking some money out of the market when the market makes it available.Agree Disagree我有一个资金管理哲学，当市场对我有利时，我兑现部分利润。同意 不同意16. A traders job is to identify patterns in the markets behavior that represent an opportunity and then to determine the risk of finding out if these patterns will play themselves out as they have in the past.Agree Disagree交易者的工作就是确认市场的行为模式，发现提供机会，然后衡量风险，看看这些模式在过去是否有效。同意 不同意17. Sometimes I just cant help feeling that I am a victim of the market.Agree Disagree有时我情不自禁地觉得我是市场的受害者。同意 不同意18. When I trade I usually try to stay focused in one time frame.Agree Disagree当我交易时，我通常只关注一个时间周期。同意 不同意19. Trading successfully requires a degree of mental flexibility far beyond the scope of most people.Agree Disagree.成功交易需要比大部分人复杂的大脑。同意 不同意20. There are times when I can definitely feel the flow of the market; however, I often have difficulty acting on these feelings.Agree Disagree有时我绝对能感觉到市场的方向，然而我总是很难根据这个感觉行动。同意 不同意21. There are many times when I am in a profitable trade and I know the move is basically over, but I still wont take my profits.Agree Disagree很多时候，我的仓位赚钱了，我也知道行情基本结束了，但我总是不愿意兑现利润。同意 不同意22. No matter how much money I make in a trade, I am rarely ever satisfied and feel that I could have made more.Agree Disagree不管一笔交易我赚了多少，我总是不满足，总以为自己可以赚的更多。同意 不同意23. When I put on a trade, I feel I have a positive attitude. I anticipate all of the money I could make from the trade in a positive way.Agree Disagree我当建仓时，我觉得我有积极态度。我希望能赚到所有的钱。同意 不同意24. The most important component in a traders ability to accumulate money over time is having a belief in his own consistency.Agree Disagree交易者持续一致赚钱的重要因素就是他有持续一致的信念。同意 不同意25. If you were granted a wish to be able to instantaneously acquire one trading skill, what skill would you choose?如果你许愿要得到一个交易技术，这个技术能被立刻实现，你会选择什么技术？26. I often spend sleepless nights worrying about the market.Agree Disagree.我经常担心市场，晚上失眠。同意 不同意27. Do you ever feel compelled to make a trade because you are afraid that you might miss out?Yes No你是否会因为担心错过交易而逼自己去交易？是 否28. Although it doesnt happen very often, I really like my trades to be perfect. When I make a perfect call it feels so good that it makes up for all of the times that I dont.Agree Disagree虽然这事不会经常发生，我非常喜欢完美的交易。当我做了一笔完美的交易，我非常高兴，过去的痛苦都可以被弥补。29. Do you ever find yourself planning trades you never execute, and executing trades you never planned?Yes No你是否做了计划不交易，交易的却是没有计划的？是 否30. In a few sentences explain why most traders either dont make money or arent able to keep what they make.用几句话解释为什么大部分交易者要么不能赚钱，要么不能守住利润。Set aside your answers as you read through this book. After youve finished the last chapter (“Thinking Like a Trader”), take the Attitude Survey again - it s reprinted at the back of the book. You may be surprised to see how much your answers differ from the first time.当你阅读本书的时候，把你的答案放在旁边。当你完成了最有一章（“像交易者一样思考” ） ，再次做这个态度调查在本书后面又印了一次。你会吃惊地发现你的答案和第一次有多么不同。ACKNOWLEDGMENTS感谢词I would especially like to thank all of the traders who bought the signed limited edition manuscript of the first seven chapters of this book. Your feedback gave me the inspiration to add the additional four chapters.我特别感谢购买了有本人签字，只有前 7 章底稿限量版的交易