《批判性思维》PPT课件.ppt

,CriticalThinkingAndArgumentation,Welcome,Prof.冯周卓Office:升华后栋703室,Mobile:13607310545E-mail:fezz,课程目标,本课程主要介绍批判思维的基本知识，同时进行批判思维方法和论辩训练。批判思维是一种基于理性和逻辑的思维模式，它为人们进行理性思考提供了基本的平台和方法。批判思维要求思考者在分析问题的同时，也要反思自己的思维过程。批判思维能力不仅是从事学术研究的基本条件，也是人们从事各类工作应具备的基本素质。论辩是阐明真理、揭穿谬误的语言活动，掌握论辩方法有助于分清现实生活中特定问题的是非、曲直、真伪、优劣，是现代社会公民参政必备的素质之一。,Studywithoutreflectionisawasteoftime;reflectionwithoutstudyisdangerous.-Confucius,Iamnotaparrot!,PART1:了解我们的思维,WhoamI?,自然思维：按照习惯或流行的观念来思考，通常是将自己固有的观念或信念来套所遇到的问题或现象，合者则肯定或接受，不合者则否定或拒绝。批判思维：对所遇到的问题或现象先要存疑，再运用逻辑推论和相关充足理由来分析问题和现象，得出肯定或否定的结论。,一、自然思维与批判性思维,主体意识的形成过程,幼儿通过举手投足可以控制镜中的自我，这给幼儿带来了极大的快感，他只能通过镜中的自我来认识自己。在这个过程中，幼儿逐渐形成了自身的主体意识。,主体意识的形成过程,儿童在3岁以后，身边各色人物的动作、姿势、说话，使他进入一个早已存在的语言能指系统，在这个系统中找到各自的位置：我、你、他，男他、女她，父亲、母亲，工人、农民，老师、学生，等等。这就是所谓的“象征界”，即语言和社会文化的领域。,Canyoufindsomethingwrong?,Thescientistsoftenplaceworkabovetheirpersonallives,oftenneglecttheirhusbands.,CriticalThinkingisthegeneraltermgiventoawiderangeofcognitiveandintellectualskillsneededto:Effectivelyidentify,analyze,andevaluatearguments.Discoverandovercomepersonalprejudicesandbiases.Formulateandpresentconvincingreasonsinsupportofconclusions.Makereasonable,intelligentdecisionsaboutwhattobelieveandwhattodo.,ProblemSolvingDecisionMaking,Right,Left,Dontneedtomemorizedefinitions!Justunderstandandpracticethecorecriticalthinkingskillsemphasizedinthiscourse.,二、批判思维的用处,1.批判思维帮助澄清思想要素2.批判思维帮助扩展你的想法3.批判思维帮助获得学术成就,批判思维帮助澄清思想的要素,endsandobjectives,thestatusandwordingofquestions,thesourcesofinformationandfact,themethodandqualityofinformationcollection,themodeofjudgmentandreasoningused,theconceptsthatmakethatreasoningpossible,theassumptionsthatunderlieconceptsinuse,theimplicationsthatfollowfromtheiruse,andthepointofvieworframeofreferencewithinwhichreasoningtakesplace.,一个对比不同假设的实例,PersonOne:Situation:“Amanislyinginthegutter.”Assumption:“Onlybumslieingutters.”Inference:“Thatmansabum.”PersonTwo:Situation:“Amanislyinginthegutter.”Assumption:“Anyonelyinginthegutterisinneedofhelp.”Inference:“Thatmanisinneedofhelp.”,批判思维帮助扩展你的想法,InScience,CriticalThinkingisusedwhenyou,Observeproblem/phenomenon/conceiveideasDevelopahypothesisMakepredictions:FormulateexperimentsTestPredictions:Carryoutexperiments/analyzedataDrawconclusionsfromresults,modifyhypothesisModifyasneededanddoagain.RejectorconfirmhypothesisTheScientificMethoditselfinvolvescriticalthinkingVITALforascientist.ImpressiveforasciencestudentNeedtohavetimetoreadandthink,Criticalthinkingvs.creativethinking,Criticalandcreativethinkingarethetwomostbasicthinkingskills.Criticalthinkingisamatterofthinkingclearlyandrationally.Creativityconsistsincomingupwithnewandrelevantideas.Tobeagoodandeffectivethinker,bothkindsofthinkingskillsareneeded.Creativitymightbedividedintotwokinds.Oneiscognitivecreativitythatisinvolvedinsolvingproblems.Theotherisaestheticcreativityrelatingtoartisticcreation.Thisisofcoursenotasharpdistinction,butcriticalthinkingplaysamoreimportantroleintheformer.,Criticalheuristicsforcreativethinking,Heuristic#1:FeaturelistHeuristic#2:AnalogyHeuristic#3:SearchHeuristic#4:PerspectiveshiftHeuristic#5:ComparationHeuristic#6:ApplyinganoldtheorytoanewdomainHeuristic#7:ComingupwithnewevidencesupportingorrefutingatheoryHeuristic#8:Improvingthescope,accuracyorthepredictivepowerofanoldtheory,CTenhancesacademicachievement,Analyticalskillsincludeboththeabilitytousegoodreasoninginanalyzingasituationandalsotheabilitytoproblemsolve.Analyticalskillsalsoincludeseeingtheargumentsonbothsidesofanissue,evenifyoudontagreewiththem,andbeingabletoanalyzethemeritsofeachargument.CriticalandanalyticalskillsareimportantpartsofGREandGMAT.TheGREAnalyticalWritingsectionconsistsoftwodistinctwritingtasks:PresentYourPerspectiveonanIssue,AnalyzeanArgument.TheGMATincludes3sections:VerbalReasoning,Quantitative,andAnalyticalWritingAssessment.,Asanundergraduateyoushould,Evaluatehowfarmaterialsareappropriate,andup-to-date.Evaluatehowfartheevidenceorexamplesusedinmaterialsreallyprovesthepointthattheauthorclaims.Weighupopinions,argumentsorsolutionsagainstappropriatecriteria.Thinkalineofreasoningthroughtoitslogicalconclusion.Checkforhiddenbiasorhiddenassumptions.Checkwhethertheevidenceandargumentreallysupporttheconclusions.,Acaseforanalyticalskills:,Supposingyouhaveraindataforyourtownforthepastthirtyyears,giventoyouatrandom,withnocomments.Youcanorganizethedatachronologically,thendrawagraphtodemonstratethedataandthen,byextendingthegraphalongitsclosestfittingcurve,youcanmakereasonablepredictionsabouttheextentofrainnextyear,assumingthatallotherfactorsremainsteady.,三、批判思维与非批判思维的特点比较,四、Mastercriticalthinkingskills,Askillisthelearnedcapacitytocarryoutpre-determinedresultsoftenwiththeminimumoutlayoftime,energy,orboth.Skillscanoftenbedividedintodomain-generalanddomain-specificskills.Thinking(cognition)goesbeyondtheacquisitionofknowledgeandincludestheprocess(es)ofknowingandreflectingonthinking(metacognition).Aprocesscanbedefinedas“alogicalseriesofrelatedtransactionsthatconvertsinputtoresultsoroutput”.Thelogicalseriescanbeanalyzedasoperationalstepsorprincipleswhichwecallthinkingskills.,Criticalthinking35skills,A.AffectiveStrategiesS-1thinkingindependentlyS-2developinginsightintoegocentricityorsociocentricityS-3exercisingfairmindednessS-4exploringthoughtsunderlyingfeelingsandfeelingsunderlyingthoughtsS-5developingintellectualhumilityandsuspendingjudgmentS-6developingintellectualcourageS-7developingintellectualgoodfaithorintegrityS-8developingintellectualperseveranceS-9developingconfidenceinreason,B.CognitiveStrategies-Macro-AbilitiesS-10refininggeneralizationsandavoidingoversimplificationsS-11comparinganalogoussituations:transferringinsightstonewcontextsS-12developingonesperspective:creatingorexploringbeliefs,arguments,ortheoriesS-13clarifyingissues,conclusions,orbeliefsS-14clarifyingandanalyzingthemeaningsofwordsorphrasesS-15developingcriteriaforevaluation:clarifyingvaluesandstandardsS-16evaluatingthecredibilityofsourcesofinformationS-17questioningdeeply:raisingandpursuingrootorsignificantquestionsS-18analyzingorevaluatingarguments,interpretations,beliefs,ortheories,S-19generatingorassessingsolutionsS-20analyzingorevaluatingactionsorpoliciesS-21readingcritically:clarifyingorcritiquingtextsS-22listeningcritically:theartofsilentdialogueS-23makinginterdisciplinaryconnectionsS-24practicingSocraticdiscussion:clarifyingandquestioningbeliefs,theories,orperspectivesS-25reasoningdialogically:comparingperspectives,interpretations,ortheoriesS-26reasoningdialectically:evaluatingperspectives,interpretations,ortheories,FromPaul,Binker,Jensen,andKreklau(1990),C.CognitiveStrategies-Micro-SkillsS-27comparingandcontrastingidealswithactualpracticeS-28thinkingpreciselyaboutthinking:usingcriticalvocabularyS-29notingsignificantsimilaritiesanddifferencesS-30examiningorevaluatingassumptionsS-31distinguishingrelevantfromirrelevantfactsS-32makingplausibleinferences,predictions,orinterpretationsS-33evaluatingevidenceandallegedfactsS-34recognizingcontradictionsS-35exploringimplicationsandconsequences(p.56),Logic,Clarity,Precision,Accuracy,Depth,Significance,Fairness,五、Thestandardsofcriticalthinking,Breadth,Relevance,1LOGIC逻辑性:Whenwethink,webringavarietyofthoughtstogetherintosomeorder.Whenthecombinationofthoughtsaremutuallysupportingandmakesenseincombination,thethinkingislogical.Doesallthismakesensetogether?Doesyourfirstparagraphfitinwithyourlast?Doeswhatyousayfollowfromtheevidence?,Doesthisreallymakesense?Doesthatfollowfromwhatyousaid?Howdoesthatfollow?Butbeforeyouimpliedthisandnowyouaresayingthat;howcanbothbetrue?,Supermanseesthroughanything.Supermanseesthroughwalls.SupermanseesthroughYou.,Whenthecombinationofthoughtsaremutuallysupportingandmakesenseincombination,thethinkingis“logical.,Maytheforcebewithyou.,Logic,2Clarity明确性:Understandable,themeaningcanbegrasped.Couldyouelaboratefurther?Couldyougivemeanexample?Couldyouillustratewhatyoumean?,Couldyouelaboratefurtheronthatpoint?Couldyouexpressthatpointinanotherway?Couldyougivemeanillustration?Couldyougivemeanexample?,Clarityisthegatewaystandard,HelpyouIcan,yes.,Clarity,3Accuracy准确性:Astatementcanbeclearbutnotaccurate,asinMostdogsareover300poundsinweight.Howcouldwecheckonthat?Howcouldwefindoutifthatistrue?Howcouldweverifyortestthat?,Isthatreallytrue?Howcouldwecheckthat?Howcouldwefindoutifthatistrue?,Source:http:/www.fctl.ucf.edu/tresources/content/Ruland-CriticalThinkingStandards.pdf,Thischickenweighsover300pounds.,Astatementcanbeclearbutnotaccurate,Powerfulyouhavebecome,thedarksideIsenseinyou.,Accuracy,4PRECISION精确性:Astatementcanbebothclearandaccurate,butnotprecise,asinJackisoverweight.Couldyoubemorespecific?Couldyougivememoredetails?Couldyoubemoreexact?,Couldyougivemoredetails?Couldyoubemorespecific?,Source:http:/www.fctl.ucf.edu/tresources/content/Ruland-CriticalThinkingStandards.pdf,Astatementcanbebothclearandaccurate,butnotprecise,Sizemattersnot.,YaoMingisTALL!,Precision,5Relevance相关性:Astatementcanbeclear,accurate,andprecise,butnotrelevanttothequestionatissue.Howdoesthatrelatetotheproblem?Howdoesthatbearonthequestion?Howdoesthathelpuswiththeissue?,Howisthatconnectedtothequestion?Howdoesthatbearontheissue?,Source:http:/www.fctl.ucf.edu/tresources/content/Ruland-CriticalThinkingStandards.pdf,Istudiedhardallsemester,thereforeIshouldgetA+.,Astatementcanbeclear,accurate,andprecise,butnotrelevanttothequestionatissue.,Youmustunlearnwhatyouhavelearned.,Relevance,6Depth深度:Containingcomplexitiesandmultipleinterrelationships.Whatfactorsmakethisadifficultproblem?Whataresomeofthecomplexitiesofthisquestion?Whataresomeofthedifficultiesweneedtodealwith?,Howdoesyouransweraddressthecomplexitiesinthequestion?Howareyoutakingintoaccounttheproblemsinthequestion?Isthatdealingwiththemostsignificantfactors?,Gravedangeryouarein.Impatientyouare.,Astatementcanbeclear,accurate,precise,andrelevant,butsuperficial.,Depth,7Breadth广度:Encompassingmultipleviewpoints.Doweneedtolookatthisfromanotherperspective?Doweneedtoconsideranotherpointofview?Doweneedtolookatthisinotherways?,Doweneedtoconsideranotherpointofview?Isthereanotherwaytolookatthisquestion?Whatwouldthislooklikefromaconservativestandpoint?Whatwouldthislooklikefromthepointofviewof.?,Thatiswhyyoufail.,Alineofreasoningmaybeclear,accurate,precise,relevant,anddeep,butlackbreadth.,Headache!,Yougot0marksfor“Participation”,becauseyoudidntparticipateintheclassdiscussionatall.,Breadth,8.Significance意义：Focusingontheimportant,nottrivial.Isthisthemostimportantproblemtoconsider?Isthisthecentralideatofocuson?Whichofthesefactsaremostimportant?,9.Fairness公正：Justifiable,notself-servingorone-sided.DoIhaveanyvestedinterestinthisissue?AmIsympatheticallyrepresentingtheviewpointsofothers,Criticalthinkingdemandsthatourthinkingbefair.Open-mindedImpartialFreeofdistortingbiasesandpreconceptions,Difficulttoachieve,butyoumusttry!,Fair-mindednessisanessentialattributeofaCriticalThinker.,Fairness,ProfileofaCriticalThinker,FivePowerfulBarrierstoCriticalThinking:,Egocentrism,UnwarrantedAssumptions,Sociocentrism,RelativisticThinking,WishfulThinking,IamprobablythegreatestthinkersinceSocrates!,BarrierstoCriticalThinking,以经济适用房为例分析思考的要素,1.Theproblemorquestionatissue.2.Thepurposeorgoalofthethinking.3.Theframeofreferenceorpointsofviewinvolved.4.Assumptionsmade.5.Centralconceptsandideasinvolved.6.Principlesortheoriesused.7.Evidence,data,orreasonadvanced.8.Interpretationsandclaimsmade.9.inferences,reasoning,andlinesofformulatedthought.10.Implicationsandconsequenceswhichfollow.,讨论题：从部分大学生难找工作看大学是否值得上。,CriticalThinkingAndArgumentation,Welcome,Prof.冯周卓Office:升华后栋703室,Mobile:13607310545E-mail:fezz,PART2:Startthinkingfromproblem,Askinggoodquestionsisdifficultbutrewardingwork.Yourtimeisvaluable.Beforetakingthetimetocriticallyevaluateanissue,askthequestion,“Whocares?”Questionshelpyouexploredimensionsofaproblem.Questionshelpyouexploreyouravailableoptions.Questionshelpyouidentifyyourgoalsandintentions.,一、thinkingisaprocessofaskingandansweringquestions,Whenawriterorspeakerhasaconclusionshewantsyoutoaccept,shemustpresentreasonstopersuadeyouthatsheisrightandtoshowyouwhy.Reasonsprovideanswersforourhumancuriosityaboutwhysomeonemakesaparticulardecisionorholdsaparticularopinion.So,questioncomesfromaskingthereasons.,Thosethreeclaimsareeachmissingsomething.Wemayormaynotagreewiththem,butintheircurrentformtheyareneitherweaknorstrong.Noneoftheclaimscontainsanexplanationorrationaleforwhyweshouldagree.Thus,ifweheardsomeonemakeoneofthosethreeassertions,wewouldbelefthungryformore.,Everyclassshouldconcludewithstudentevaluations.Apigissmarterthanamule.Employersshouldbeabletofireanyemployeewhorefusestotakeadrugtest.,Whatismissingisthereasonorreasonsresponsiblefortheclaims.Reasonsarebeliefs,evidence,metaphors,analogies,andotherstatementsofferedtosupportorjustifyconclusions.Theyarethestatementsthattogetherformthebasisforcreatingthecredibilityofaconclusion.,二、Questiondeterminesthedirectionofthinking,“名人（黄馨蔓、张纪中、马云等）为什么会成为李一道士的弟子？”这个问题的预设是：名人是高智商的，不会轻易被谎言和迷信所蒙骗。这个预设引导你去思考名人与轻信的关系。,Weakquestionsaredisempowering.Theykeepyourfocusedonyourownego,yourproblems,andyourshortcomings.Weakquestionskeepyoufocusedonwhatswrongonwhatisntworking.Strongquestionsareempowering.Theykeepyoufocusedonsolutions,onwhatyoucancontrol.Whenyoufocusonwhatyoucando,youavoidfallingintoanalysisparalysis.,Mostpeopleasklousyquestionsthatcrippletheirresults.Lousyquestionsturnyourfocusawayfromwhatyouwantandtowardsmoreofwhatyoudontwant.Andsinceweaskandanswermentalquestionseveryday,ourquestionswieldgreatpoweroverourresults.,Situation:UponwakingupearlyWeak:CanIfallbackasleepagain?ShouldIgobacktobed?Strong:Whatwouldbethebestwaytostartmyday?HowcanIenergizemyself?WherecanIfindsomethinginspirationalormotivationaltoreadrightnow?,Weak:WhatfoodsamIgoingtohavetogiveup?HowamIgoingtodealwiththedeprivation?AmIgoingtohavetoeatlikethisforever?Strong:WhatfoodsthatIlikewillIgettoeatmoreof?WhatnewfoodscanIexperimentwith?WontitbegreatwhenIreachmygoalweight?Wontitbewonderfultofinallymasterthisareaofmylifeonceandforall?OnceIsucceedatthis,whoelsecanIhelp?,Situation:Whenconsideringadietaryimprovement,Weak:HaveIdoneenoughthatIcanjustifyquittingfortheday?Isthisagoodtimetostop?CanIfinishthistomorrow?Strong:Whatsnext?HowcanIcompleteonemoretask?HowmuchmorecanIgetdonetoday?,Situation:Nearingtheendoftheworkday,Weak:HowcanIavoidlookinglikeanidiot?WhatshouldItalkabout?HowcanIkeepfrombeingtoonervousorshy?HowdidIgetmyselfintothissituation?CanIgetoutofgoing?Strong:Wontitbefuntomeetsomeinterestingnewpeople?IfIseesomeonetherewhosabitshy,whatcanIdotomakehim/herfeelmorecomfortable?WhatcanIexpectothersatthiseventtohaveincommonwithme?,Situation:Whenfacinganunfamiliarsocialsituation,Weak:WhydoIfeelsodown?WhycantIbehappy?HowcomeInevergetanytimetomyself?Strong:WhatcanIdotoenergizemyself?WhocanItalktothatwouldhelpcheermeup?WhatcanIreadorlistentothatwouldinspireme?ArethesefeelingstryingtotellmesomethingshouldIgojournalaboutthem?HowlongcanIholdafakesmilebeforeitforcesmetostartfeelinggoodagain?,Situation:Whenfeelingdepressed,anxious,orotherwisenegative,三、Questionsaremoreimportantthansolvingproblem,“Learnfromyesterday,livefortoday,hopefortomorrow.Theimportantthingisnottostopquestioning.”“IfIhadanhourtosolveaproblemandmylifedependedontheanswer,Iwouldspendthefirst55minutesfiguringouttheproperquestionstoask.ForifIknewtheproperquestions,Icouldsolvetheprobleminlessthan5minutes.”Einstein,1.Whatistheproblem?2.Whatarethecausesoftheproblem?3.Whatarethepossiblesolutionstotheproblem?4.Whichisthebestsolutiontotheproblem?5.Whataction(s)dowetake?,Askingquestionsbeforesolvingproblem,四、TypesofQuestions,1.随意型的问题：你对联想集团国际化失败的案例有什么想法？你对这个问题的哪些方面最感兴趣？我们应该从哪里谈起？2.判断型的问题：你是如何看待这个问题的？你从这些材料中得出了什么结论？3挑战（或检验）型的问题：你凭什么相信这一点？你有什么证据来证明你的结论？可以通过什么样的论证来反驳这种观点？,4关于行动的问题：怎样才能贯彻中央政府要控制高房价的政策？5关于先后顺序的问题：在当前银行紧缩信贷的情况下，第一步应该做什么？第二步应该做什么？第三步。6预测型的问题：假如你的判断是对的，对方可能会采取什么对策？,7假设型的问题：假设政府继续放松银根（或收紧银根），房地产业会出现什么情况？8推广型的问题：你对湖北石首市群体性事件原因的分析，对于其他城市的管理者有什么借鉴意义？9衍生型的问题：如果农民失去对土地的控制权，他们的生活会发生哪些变化？10综合型的问题：作为一个教师，你认为激励学生努力学习的主要动力有哪些？,THESIXTYPESOFSOCRATICQUESTIONS,当代社会男人更累还是女人更累？,课堂辩论,CriticalThinkingAndArgumentation,Welcome,Prof.冯周卓Office:升华后栋703室,Mobile:13607310545E-mail:fezz,PART3:Thetypesandstructureofreasoning,TrueStatementsFalse,一、Basicconcepts,Astatementmustbeclear,accurate,preciseandrelevant,Sizemattersnot.,YaoMingisTALL!,SoundValidDeductiveUnsoundArgumentsInvalid(Allareunsound),CogentStrongInductiveUncogentArgumentsWeak(Allareuncogent),Doesthisreallymakesense?Doesthatfollowfromwhatyousaid?Howdoesthatfollow?Butbeforeyouimpliedthisandnowyouaresayingthat;howcanbothbetrue?,Supermanseesthroughanything.Supermanseesthroughwalls.SupermanseesthroughYou.,Whenthecombinationofthoughtsaremutuallysupportingandmakesenseincombination,thethinkingislogical.“,Maytheforcebewithyou.,Logic,Statement(claim):Anassertionthatsomethingisorisnotthecase.Premise:Astatementgiveninsupportofanotherstatement.Conclusion:Astatementthatpremisesareusedtosupport.Argument:Agroupofstatementsinwhichsomeofthem(thepremises)areintendedtosupportanotherofthem(theconclusion).,Theessentialsoflogicalanalysis,Mostseriousstudentsarehappystudents,andmostseriousstudentsgotograduateschool.Furthermore,allstudentswhogotograduateschoolareoverworked.Whichoneofthefollowingcanbeproperlyinferredfromthestatementsabove?(a)Mostoverworkedstudentsarehappystudents.(b)Somehappystudentsareseriousstudents.(c)Alloverworkedstudentsareseriousstudents.(d)Someunhappystudentsgotograduateschool.(e)Allseriousstudentsareoverworked.,LSATlogicalreasoningquestion:,“TherapiddiminishmentoftheecosystemoftheAmazonthreatenstheentireplanet.Consequently,wemusttakeimmediatestepstoconvincetheBraziliangovernmentthatplanneddevelopmentprojectsneedtobecurtailedforthesimplereasonthatthesedevelopmentprojectswillgreatlyacceleratethelossofcurrentlyprotectedland.”,Findoutthepremisesandtheconclusioninthefollowing:,1-D,I.InductiveReasoning,specificpremisesgeneralconclusion,II.DeductiveReasoning,generalpremisesspecificconclusion,TypesofArguments,Aninductiveargumentmakesacaseforageneralconclusionfrommorespecificpremises.Inotherwords,specificpremisesareusedtodrawageneralconclusion.(Ageneralconclusionisinduced.),二、INDUCTIVEARGUMENT,Premise:Sparrowsarebirdsthatfly.Premise:Eaglesarebirdsthatfly.Premise:Hawksarebirdsthatfly.Premise:Larksarebirdsthatfly.Conclusion:Allbirdsfly.,Example:InductiveArgument,Aninductiveargumentcannotproveitsconclusiontrue.Aninductiveargumentcanbeevaluatedonlyintermsofitsstrength.Thestrengthofaninductiveargumentisameasureofhowwellthepremisessupporttheconclusion.Clearly,thisissubjective(apersonaljudgment).,NotesonInductiveArguments,StrongInductiveArgument:Aninductiveargumentinwhichthetruthofthepremisesreallydoesprovethattheconclusionisprobablytrue.WeakInductiveArgument:Aninductiveargumentinwhichthetruthofthepremisesreallydoesnotprovethattheconclusionisprobablytrue.,CogentArgument:Astronginductiveargumentinwhichallthepremisesareactuallytrue.UncogentArgument:Astronginductiveargumentinwhichevenonepremiseisactuallyfalse.,DeterminingWhetheranInductiveArgumentisStrongorWeakAssumeallthepremisesaretrue,evenifoneormoreisclearlyfalse.Usingonlytheinformationinthepremisespluscommonknowledgeask:Whatistheprobabilitythattheconclusionistrue?Above50%:StrongArgument50%orLess:WeakArgument,Examples1.Mostrecordingartistshavetalent.BritneySpearsisarecordingartist.Therefore,Britneyprobablyhastalent.Thisargumentisstrong.2.BritneySpearsisarecordingartist.Britneyhasblondehair.Therefore,mostrecordingartistshaveblondehair.Thisargumentisweak.,3.Mostboysliketoplaysports.BritneySpearsisaboy.Therefore,Britneyprobablylikestoplaysports.Thisargumentisstrongbutuncogent.Thefirstargumentiscogentaswellasstrong.,categoricalsyllogism直言三段论hypotheticalreasoning假言推理Disjunctivereasoning选言推理,三、Deductiveargument,ReviewoftheCategoricalPropositions:,Whatisacategoricalsyllogism?Itiskindofamediatedeductiveargument,whichiscomposedofthreestandardformcategoricalpropositionsthatusesonlythreedistinctterms.Ex.Allpoliticiansaregoodinrhetoric.Allcouncilorsarepoliti