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外文翻译之二The Software industry and Indias economic developmentAsish Arora Suma AthreyeAmerican IndianInformation Economics and Policy, Vol.1(2001)4. The growth of software and human capital formation: public and private investments in training and the rewards to an engineering educationThough India has one of the largest numbers of scientists and engineers it also has some of the lowest rates of literacy in the world with 52% of the total working population that cannot read or write. As Table 3 showed, despite the large total numbers of engineers, the numbers of engineers per million of population was smaller in India compared to several other countries. There is correspondingly an over-reliance on the existing stock of trained but underemployed engineers, for whose services a slowly growing and protected economy could not generate adequate demand.A very large fraction of the employees of Indian software firms are graduates of engineering college. Most of the Indian software firms interviewed by Arora et al. (2000) reported hiring only engineers. Data from a sample of nearly 60 software firms indicates that over 80% of their employees had an engineering degree. Only 13% were non-engineers trained in software development.14 In interviews, many firms categorically stated that they hired only engineers.This preference for engineers was unremarkable, and of little consequence, at the start of the industry, when its demand was small relative to the annual supply. India graduates over 160,000 engineers of all varieties. The sharp and sustained growth of the Indian industry has meant that by 1998-99, the number of employees has climbed to nearly 250,000, and estimates suggest that this may have crossed 400,000 in 2000-2001. If the industry continued to grow at 50% per year, then even allowing for increases in productivity, it appears that the software industry is going to run out of engineers to hire. (See Arora, Asundi and Fernandes, 2000 for more details.)These projections are consistent with other evidence. Wages in the software industry have grown at over 20% per annum and attrition rates are high. When asked in 1998-99 to list the top 3 problems they faced, more than half of all firms (out of a sample of over 100 firms) irrespective of age, size or market orientations (either export or import) selected manpower shortage and employee attrition as the most serious problem affecting them (Arora, et. al, 2000). Despite paying substantially above Indian standards, virtually all firms find it difficult to attract and retain talented software developers.The public policy response has been to emphasize increased investments in engineering colleges, increased emphasis on information technology in engineering curricula and the creation of institutes of information technology (IIIT) along the lines of the better known Indian Institutes of Technology. Though superficially reasonable, this is not the answer. These investments are unlikely to have a significant affect on supply in the short run. Moreover, expanding such capacity faces the problem that the growth of the software industry has tended to siphon off engineering masters and PhD students. A recent report on graduate engineering education in India noted that the number of engineering PhDs produced has fallen from 675 in 1987 to 375 in1995. Concurrently, the number of engineers with postgraduate training has also risen only slowly, from a little over 12,000 in 1987-89 to a little over 17,000 in 1990-92. Surveys of Indias premier technological institutions-the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) show that a very large fraction of postgraduates from those institutions enter the Information Technology (IT) sector, in some cases as many as 90%!Moreover, Table 6 below shows that the bulk of the Indian engineering capacity is located in just a few states Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Further, the table also shows that the bulk of the capacity here is accounted for by “self financed” colleges, where students receive a much smaller subsidy, if at all, compared with the state financed colleges. An interesting and hitherto unexplored question is the reason that the organizational innovation of self- financing colleges has not diffused to other parts of the country. We can only speculate that this has to do partly with cultural and political factors, and partly with the lower returns to investments in human capital in other parts of the country. Not coincidentally, the south and west are also economically more advanced.We believe that although investments in engineering education are necessary, a bigger part of the solution lies in a more efficient use of existing human capital resources. Implicit in the discussion thus far is that only engineering graduates are well suited to perform the tasks required. This assumption appears to have shaky foundations. First, the bulk of the engineers working in the industry are not, in fact, trained in software engineering, computer science or related disciplines. Further, a very significant fraction of the work involves developing and refining business applications, databases and the like. Indeed, initially a great of the work involved porting applications from one computing platform, typically a mainframe, to another platform such as a Unix platform. This work requires familiarity with software development tools. It does not require a deep knowledge of computer architecture or operating systems. Finally, much of the work has tended to consist of small projects, with fairly low levels of technical complexity. Arora et al (2000) report that the median size of the “most important export project” of the firms they surveyed was only 150 man months, with an average of 510. This suggests that the typical export project is even smaller. Moreover, about half of the work was carried out in India; the rest was onsite, in the US.When pressed, most of the managers agreed that they did not require engineers: Bright graduates from any field could, with proper training, do what was needed. It seems that the preference for engineers is in some cases a way of signaling quality to customers. As one CEO put it “Take somebody from a good college (any of the top 20 colleges in India), give him 3 months of orientation and they are ready to take up a programming assignment. I dont need all these engineers. But I dont want to be branded by my customers as a guy who hires NIIT graduates.” (Emphases added.)(From Sloan Report, Arora et al 1999)This is a clear instance of a “race to the top”. With limited market power, Indian software exporters try to distinguish themselves from the competition by pointing to the quality of their processes and people, and when possible, their experience.Firms also have quality concerns. Some managers we interviewed believe that an engineering education imparts a set of problem solving skills, methods of thinking logically and learning tools that help quick adaptation to changes in technology, domains and tasks. Since Indian firms provide services across a range of platforms and domains, this is an important asset. Another important consideration has to do the quality signaling in the labor market. The Indian education system is such that competition for an engineering education is intense, and as a result, graduating with an engineering degree is a signal of qualities such as intelligence and willingness to work hard. Software firms may prize these qualities more than the specific substantive knowledge of engineering.If so, this is certainly an inefficient allocation of resources.17 Indeed; the software industry has been growing in part by drawing away engineers from other industries. In our interviews we came across a number of instances of engineers with highly specialized training (such as VLSI design or satellite systems) working on tasks such as database design or development of business application software. Quite a few senior level engineers were drawn from a variety of public sector research and development institutions. Such a transfer of resources is entirely in line with the presumed comparative advantage in software development. Of course, there are a variety of distortions in the Indian economy, which imply caution in interpreting the market signals.18 In addition to changing the composition of economic activity, the increasingly tight market for engineers and managers is also likely to affect the organization of economic activity. As we discuss in greater detail in section 6, the increasing demand for trained engineers and managers is also affecting the balance between capital and labor (or more precisely, between capital and human capital), resulting in organizational innovations.The clearly increasing payoffs to human capital are also inducing greater investment in human capital. The Indian middle class has always relied upon education, particularly professional education such as engineering or medicine as means of economic advance. However, with a slowly growing economy, the returns to such investments have not been very high. The precarious state of public finances has limited the ability of the central and state governments to expand tertiary education. The rapid growth of the software sector has however, marked a watershed. One of the most rapidly growing sectors within the software industry is for private training.Private training institutions train individuals specifically for work in software development. NASSCOM sources estimated that there were 3800 such training firms in 1998, in what was then a $300 million market, although together NIIT and Aptech are believed to have 70% of the software training market. Private training institutes are also important for helping existing software developers acquire new skills. Many engineers also undertake further training in software development on their own from private training institutes. The growing presence of private training institutes in cities in India is increasingly making it possible for software developers to obtain certificates and diplomas from such institutes.It is also noteworthy that this is a private sector response to a market opportunity, namely the demand for training in specialized skills. In the US and elsewhere, for profit firms compete with a variety of public institutions, such as state and community colleges in the US. In India, the rapid growth of private training institutes testifies to the changed economic climate and the channeling of entrepreneurship into economically productive areas away from mere rent-seeking. This change, too, owes at least indirectly to the rapid growth of the software industry.To sum up the foregoing, we believe the evidence indicates that until recently, an excess supply of trained engineering talent was a significant source of competitive advantage for Indian firms. By the same token, it provided few incentives for firms to economize on the use of skilled engineering talent. Instead, the growth of the industry and high salaries have attracted not only newly graduating engineers but also engineers, managers and other professionals from other industrial sectors.Despite this, the explosive growth in the software industry has lead to a stage where firms recognize that skilled engineers, software professionals and good managers are a scarce resource. Moreover, faced with a number of attractive options including a move overseas, these talented engineers and managers are looking for more money and a more professional and rewarding work environment. In turn, this entails a variety of organizational changes we discuss below.软件产业和印度的经济发展Asish Arora Suma Athreye美国 印度信息经济学和政策，2001年第一期4、软件行业的发展和人力资本的形成：在教育方面的私人和公共投资和工程教育回报尽管印度拥有世界上最多的科学家和工程师，但是其由于52%的工作人员无法读写，而同时成为世界上识字率最低的国家。正如表3所示，尽管有大量的工程师，但是印度每百万人口里工程师的数量还是低于其他一些国家。由于缓慢增长的干预型经济不能产生对工程师的足够需求，相应的就有对现存但未被雇用的工程师的过度依赖。大部分的印度软件公司的职员都毕业于工程学院。根据Arora et al. (2000)的报告，大部分被访企业只雇用工程师。60家软件公司的调查数据显示，超过80%的公司雇员有工程师学位，只有13%是在软件发展中被培训起来的非工程师。在采访中，很多公司明确表示他们只雇用工程师。 在软件行业发展的初期，由于需求远远小于每年的供给量，这种对工程师的偏好并不明显或者不导致什么后果。印度总共有160，000各种各样工程类毕业生。印度产业稳定而快速的发展意味着在1998年和1999年间，被雇佣者的数量将会累计到近250.000，预计将会在2000到2001年间突破400，000。即使软件产业每年以50%的增长率增长，甚至假设生产力提高，软件产业似乎还是会将出现工程师供不应求的局面。（参考 Arora, Asundi 和 Fernandes,2000年细节。） 这些预言得到证据支持。软件产业的工资率每年以20%的增长率在增长，同时人员损耗率也是相当的高。当在1998年至1999年间，当软件产业被问及列举他们发展所面临的三大问题时，超过一半的公司（以超过100的公司为样本），不考虑公司的时间、规模和市场导向（出口或者进口），都不约而同的选择了人员紧缺和人员损耗作为他们所面临的最严重的问题。尽管愿意偿付远远高于印度标准水平的工资, 很多企业最终还是发现难以吸引并且留住优秀的软件开发人才。公共政策对此做出的反应是加强在工程学院上的投资，重视工程课程上的信息技术，和信息技术机构（IIIT）以及更有名的印度技术机构的创建等。尽管从表面上来看这些举措是合理的，但是实际上这并不能解决问题。这些投资根本不可能在短期内能显著改善工程人员供给。同时，如此大规模扩容导致软件产业发展趋向于抽调工程硕士和博士。一份最近对印度工程研究生教育的调查显示，工程博士的数量已经从1987年的675位下降到1995年的375位。同时，拥有硕士头衔的工程师的数量也只是缓慢增长，从1987-89年间的12，000位增长到了1990-92年间的17，000位。对印度技术机构理工学校的调查显示，大量的该校毕业生进入信息技术部门工作，有时甚至高达90%。另外，表6显示印度大部分工程学校集中在少部分的几个州Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh。同时其中大部分都是私立大学，在这些学校的学生收到的补助远远小于就读于州立大学的学生。但是，私立学院并未能在国家的其它部分扩散开来是一个有趣而费解的现象。我们只能大概的估计这部分归因于文化和政治因素，部分取决于在其它州人力资本投资的低收益率。并非巧合的，南部和西北在经济上确实是更发达。 我们认为，尽管在工程教育方面的投资是必需的，但是解决问题的更有效的办法应该是依赖于对现有人力资源的合理利用。在这场争论中的隐含假设是只有工程类毕业生才能胜任软件开发任务。这个假设技术显然是不合理的。首先,大部分现在软件产业工作的工程师事实上都是没有接受过在软件工程、电脑科学或者相关领域等的训练。其次，很大一部分工作是涉及到商业应用，数据库等。事实上，最初大量的工作涉及到从一个运行平台（通常如维护）到另一个运行平台（如Unix平台）的运用。这些工作只要求对软件开发工具相当熟悉，但并不要求对电脑结构和运行系统具有很深的认识。最后，大部分的工作其实都是由一个个具有较低技术复杂性的小工程组成的。Arora et al（2000）在他们调查中发现，公司最重要的出口工程的中等规模是150个人，但平均有510人。这表明典型的出口工程甚至更小。更有甚者，大约一半的工作在印度国内执行，剩下的则在美国。当迫于无奈，很多经理也表示他们并不需要工程师：聪明的毕业生只要经过适当的培训，是能很快胜任何工作的。但是似乎对工程师的偏好是出于对顾客传递产品质量信号的考虑。正如某一CEO所说，“雇佣任何一个优秀学府的毕业生（印度排名前20的大学中的任何一所），给他们三个月的培训，他们就能够胜任项目任务。事实上，我并不是完全需要这些工程师但是我却不想在我的顾客中以雇佣非技术工程大学的毕业生而出名。”（来自斯隆报告，Arora et al 1999）。 这是一个“竞赛至上”的最好例子。受限于市场影响力，印度软件出口商们总是试图通过人才和生产过程质量，甚至可能的话，人才经验等方面来使自己在竞争中脱颖而出。企业也有出于质量方面的考虑。一些被采访的经理表示受过工程类专门教育涉及到一系列问题解决技巧、逻辑思考的方法和学习工具，这些都有助于（雇员）快速适应在技术、领域和任务方面的变化。由于印度公司提供的是跨领域和平台的一系列服务，因此这些能力是很重要的资本。另外一个重要的考虑是工程教育背景是劳动力质量的信号指示。印度工程类教育体系是非常严格的，因而成功获得工程类学位的毕业生至少显示了智力和勤奋能力。软件公司可能因此更看重的是这些素质而不是具体大量的工程类知识。 如果事实如此，那么劳动力市场的分配必定是缺乏效率的。事实上，软件产业的发展部分是通过吸引来自别的产业的人才来实现的。在我们的采访中，我们遇到大量的具有高度专业背景（如VLSI 设计和卫星系统）的人从事诸如数据库设计和商业应用软件的开发。甚至有些高级工程师是来自政府研究和发展机构。这样一种资源转换是同我们先前假设的软件发展在印度所具有的相对优势所吻合的。当然，印度经济存在很多扭曲的地方，这些都是在解读市场信号时所应该警惕的。除了上述提到的改变经济活动的组成，市场对工程师和经理人日益增加的需求也将影响经济活动的组织。正如我们在第六部分以更多笔墨讨论的那样，对受训过的工程师和管理人员的需求增加也将影响资本和劳动力（或者更确切的说物质资本和人力资本）之间的平衡，从而引发组织革新。对人力资本更多的回报也引发了对其更多的投资。印度的中产阶级，总是依赖于教育，特别是诸如工程师和医生的职业教育，作为改善经济状况的一种手段。然而印度经济的缓慢增长，使这类投资的回报率显得并不很高。政府公共财政的谨慎状态也限制了中央和州政府扩张第三方教育的能力。然而，快速增长的软件部门迅速分散。在软件产业内发展最迅速的部门之一既是私人培训。私人培训机构对个体在软件开发工作方面进行专门培训。NASSCOM 估计，在1998年，有3800家类似于的培训机构，而市场潜力却是有30，000，000美元，尽管其中的70%相信被NIIT和Aptech所占领。私人培训机构在帮助在职软件开发员获得新的技术上也是非常重要的。很多工程师也参加私人培训机构进修。私人培训机构在印度城市的出现，使软件开发人员获得这些机构的认证和证书的变得更加可能。同时值得一提的是，这是私人部门对市场机会对特殊技能训练需求的反应。在美国和其它的国家，公司为了利益会和各种各样的公共机构（如公立大学）进行竞争。在印度，私人培训机构的快速成长，表明经济环境的变化和企业家行为从纯粹的寻租向经济效率性领域转轨。这种转变至少间接上是归因于软件产业的快速发展。综上所述，我们认为，直到现在，证据显示受过训练的工程类人才的过度供给是印度公司一个巨大的竞争优势。同样的，这种过度供给也将导致公司缺乏人尽其用的激励。甚至，产业发展和高工资不断不仅吸引着新毕业的工程师，还吸引了包括工程师、经理和来自其它产业部门的专家。 尽管如此，软件产业的爆炸性成长使很多公司认识到技术型的工程师、软件专业人士和优秀的经理是一种稀缺资源。另外，面临着更诱人的选择（如移民海外），那些很有天赋的工程师和经理也在寻找更高的回报率和更专业化的工作环境。因此，这引出了我们接下来对各种组织结构转变的讨论。-8
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