ch03-财货市场均衡-凯因斯课件

Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,of 32,Chapter 3:The Goods Market,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall Macroeconomics,5/e Olivier Blanchard,ch03-财货市场均衡-凯因斯课件,頭腦體操？,為什麼會有失業？造成的原因是什麼？,1930,年代經濟大恐慌，為何有普遍失業的現象,?,失業產生究竟是因為企業生產萎縮,(,供給不足,),所致，還是商品賣不出去,(,需求不足,),所致,?,近一二年，全球及台灣普遍高失業率的現象，是供給面還是需求面所引起？,台灣經濟不好，是那裡出了問題？中央要拼經濟，救台灣，如何拼法呢？,過去台灣經濟不好時，政府總會提出振興投資方案、擴大內需政策,-,等，建立在什麼觀點上？你認為成效又如何？,增加一元的投資支出或政府支出，可創造比一元還多的產出或所得，可能嗎？為何？,決定家計消費支出的因素為何？決定企業投資的關鍵又如何？,節儉是美德嗎？一經濟社會人們想增加儲蓄，是否整個經濟社會儲蓄水準就會增加？,政府財政政策，如何能達到經濟穩定的目的？利用何種財政工具？,國外經濟不景氣，台灣經濟跟著不好，如何說明這種現象？,頭腦體操？為什麼會有失業？造成的原因是什麼？,簡單凱因斯模型,-,理論基礎,依據：凱因斯,1936,年就業、利息與貨幣的一般理論，,1930,年代經濟大恐慌提出。,是需要面經濟學，主要說明失業為何產生及如何解決失業問題。,當時勞動未充分就業，工資又無法向下調整，使企業缺乏增加勞動雇用的誘因。,解決失業問題之法在提高總需求，貨暢其流，東西有銷路，生產增加，勞動需求自然增加。,古典經濟學：是供給面經濟學，經由自由市場的價格機能，經濟常處於充分就業狀態，資本、技術、勞動供給量等生產能量決定總供給，總需求只影響物價水準而已。,模式：依總合供需圖而言,凱因斯學派,AS,水平，產出與就業決定於總需求。,古典學派,AS,垂直，產出與就業決定於總供給，總需求只影響物價水準。,中間區,AS,正斜率，總需求與總供給共同決定產出、就業與物價。,假定：物價不變，不計利率或金融,(,貨幣,),面的作用,(,本章,),主旨：民間消費、企業投資、政府支出、對外貿易如何影響一國所得,3,簡單凱因斯模型-理論基礎依據：凱因斯1936年就業、利息,3-1 The Composition of GDP,Table 3-1,The Composition of U.S.GDP,2006,Billions of dollars,Percent of GDP,GDP(Y),13,246,100.0,1 Consumption(,C,),9,269,70.0,2 Investment(,I,),2,163,16.3,Nonresidential,1,396,10.5,Residential,767,5.8,3 Government spending(,G,),2,528,19.0,4 Net exports,763,5.8,Exports(X),1,466,11.0,Imports(IM),2,229,16.8,5 Inventory investment,49,0,Source:Survey of Current Business,April 2007,Table 1-1-5.,4,3-1 The Composition of GDPTab,3-1 The Composition of GDP,Consumption(,C,)refers to the goods and services purchased by consumers.,Investment(,I,),sometimes called,fixed investment,is the purchase of capital goods.It is the sum of,nonresidential investment,and,residential investment,.,Government Spending(,G,),refers to the purchases of goods and services by the federal,state,and local governments.It does not include,government transfers,nor interest payments on the government debt.,5,3-1 The Composition of GDPCon,3-1 The Composition of GDP,Imports(,IM,),are the purchases of foreign goods and services by consumers,business firms,and the U.S.government.,Exports(,X,),are the purchases of U.S.goods and services by foreigners.,6,3-1 The Composition of GDPImp,3-1 The Composition of GDP,Inventory investment,is the difference between production and sales.,Net exports(,X,IM,),is the difference between exports and imports,also called the,trade balance,.,7,3-1 The Composition of GDPInv,3-2 The Demand for Goods,The total demand for goods is written as:,The symbol“,”means that this,equation is an,identity,or definition.,To determine,Z,some simplifications must be made:,Assume that all firms produce the same good,which can then be used by consumers for consumption,by firms for investment,or by the government.,8,3-2 The Demand for GoodsThe t,3-2 The Demand for Goods,Assume that firms are willing to supply any amount of the good at a given price,P,and demand in that market.,Assume that the economy is,closed,that it does not trade with the rest of the world,then both exports and imports are zero.,Under the assumption that the economy is closed,X=IM,=0,then:,9,3-2 The Demand for Goods9,3-2 The Demand for Goods,Disposable income,(,Y,D,),is the income that remains once consumers have paid taxes and received transfers from the government.,The function,C,(,Y,D,)is called the,consumption function,.,It is a,behavioral equation,that is,it captures the behavior of consumers.,Consumption(,C,),A more specific form of the consumption function is this,linear relation,:,10,3-2 The Demand for GoodsDispo,簡單凱因斯模型,民間消費與儲蓄,影響消費支出的因素：可支配所得、利率、未來預期、資產或財富多寡、物價水準、貸款信用的條件與數量、所得分配狀況、家庭人口數與年齡結構。,消費支出與可支配所得關係：凱恩斯提出消費基本心理法則,(fundamental psychological law),所得增加消費支出增加；但消費額增量小於所得增量；且隨所得增加，平均消費額下降。,消費函數：,C,c,o,c,1,Y,D,，,Co,是自發性消費、,c,1,Y,D,是誘發性消費，,0,c,1,1,。,消費傾向：邊際消費傾向,(MPC),C/Y,D,c,平均消費傾向,(APC),C/Y,D,(c,o,/Y,D,),c,1,MPC,儲蓄函數：,S,Y,D,C,c,o,(1,c,1,)Y,D,，,MPS,S/Y,D,，,APS,S/Y,D,消費傾向與儲蓄傾向關係：,MPC,MPS,1,，,APC,APS,1,11,簡單凱因斯模型民間消費與儲蓄影響消費支出的因素：可支配所得,可支配所得、消費、儲蓄,單位：萬元,Y,C,S,Y,C,S,APC,APS,MPC,MPC,0,6,-6,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,10,12,-2,10,6,4,1.2,-2,0.6,0.4,20,18,2,10,6,4,0.9,0.1,0.6,0.4,30,24,4,10,6,4,0.8,0.2,0.6,0.4,40,30,10,10,6,4,0.75,0.25,0.6,0.4,50,36,14,10,6,4,0.72,0.28,0.6,0.4,60,42,18,10,6,4,0.70,0.30,0.6,0.4,70,48,22,10,6,4,0.69,0.31,0.6,0.4,12,可支配所得、消費、儲蓄,3-2 The Demand for Goods,This function has two,parameters,c,0,and,c,1,:,c,1,is called the(marginal),propensity to consume,or the effect of an additional dollar of disposable income on consumption.,c,0,is the intercept of the consumption function.,Disposable income is given by:,Consumption(,C,),13,3-2 The Demand for GoodsThis,3-2 The Demand for Goods,Consumption(,C,),Consumption increases with disposable income but less than one for one.,Consumption and Disposable Income,Figure 3-1,14,3-2 The Demand for GoodsConsu,3-2 The Demand for Goods,Variables that depend on other variables within the model are called,en