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,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING,版权所有 吴三清博士,OBJECTIVES,Discuss the importance of HR planning.,Explain the relationship between strategic HRM and HR planning.,Examine some key environmental influences on HR planning.,Discuss the basic approaches to HR planning.,Describe the ways of forecasting HR requirements and availability.,Discuss the requirements for effective HR planning.,If you dont want to plan for success,what right do you have to worry about non-success?If youre not planning where you want to be,what reason or excuse do you have for worrying about being nowhere?,TOM HOPKINS,American sales trainer,motivator and author.,Plans get you into things but you got to work your way out.,WILL ROGERS(1879-1935),American actor,performer and humorist.,IMPORTANCE OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING,The purpose of HR planning is to ensure that a predetermined number of persons with the correct skills are available at a specified time in the future.,HR planning systematically identifies what must be done to guarantee the availability of the human resources needed by an organisation to meet its strategic business objectives.,HR planning cannot be undertaken in isolation.It must be linked to the organisations overall business strategy.,STRATEGIC HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING,As part of the strategic planning process,HR planning must consider the environmental influences on an organisation,its objectives,culture,structure and HRM.,HR planning must reflect the environmental trends and issues that affect an organisations management of its human resources.Government regulations relating to conditions of employment,EEO,industrial relations and occupational health and safety,for example,must be integrated with an organisations HRM strategies.,Other examples include demographic changes,the casualisation of the work force,employee literacy,skill shortages,acquisitions,mergers and divestures,deregulation,flexible work schedules,telecommuting and outsourcing.,APPROACHES TO HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING,THE QUANTITATIVE APPROACH,The quantitative approach sees employees as numerical entities and groups them according to age,sex,experience,skills,qualification,job level,pay,performance rating or some other means of classification.,The focus is on forecasting HR shortages,surpluses and career blockages;its aim is to reconcile the supply and demand for human resources given the organizations objectives.,Trend Projection,Trend projection or time series analysis predictions work by projecting trends of the past and present into the future.,This technique is based on the assumption that the future will be a continuation of the past.,Econometric Modelling,Econometric modelling and multiple predictive techniques involve building complex computer models to simulate future events based on probabilities and multiple assumptions.,THE QUALITATIVE APPROACH,The qualitative approach to HR planning uses expert opinion(usually a line manager)to predict the future(for example,the marketing manager will be asked to estimate the future personnel requirements for the marketing department).The focus is on evaluations of employee performance and capacity for promotion as well as management and career development,Delphi Technique,A refinement on this basic approach is the Delphi technique:a panel of experts such as key line managers make independent anonymous predictions in answer to questions relating to HR planning.,The responses are analysed by the HR department and the confidential results are fed back to the experts along with another series of questions.,The managers revise their original estimates in light of this new information.This process is repeated until a consensus forecast is obtained.,FORECASTING HUMAN RESOURCE AVAILABILITY,Once the HR manager has estimated the HR needs of the organisation,the next challenge is to fill the projected vacancies.,Present employees who can be promoted,transferred,demoted or developed make up the internal supply.,Constraints may apply on the use of both internal and external labour supplies(for example,a promotion from within policy,union restrictions,management preference and government regulations).,FORECASTING THE SUPPLY OF INTERNAL HUMAN RESOURCES,Turnover analysis,A detailed analysis of why people leave the organisation is essential if meaningful information is to be obtained.,Labour turnover rates from past years are the best source of this information for most organisation.,Turnover for each job classification and department should also be calculated because turnover can vary dramatically among various work functions and departments.,Skills Inventory,This consolidates basic information on all employees within the organisation and permits the HR manager to:,identify qualified employees for different jobs,determine which skills are present or lacking in the organisation,assess longer ter
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