政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响

Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,June 26,2006,Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China,2006 Presidents Forum,Regulatory Issues and,Chinas Auto Market,政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响,Wayne W.J.Xing,Ph.D,China Business Update,China Automotive Review,中国汽车要闻 邢文军,1,The Auto Market Today,中国的汽车市场,Future Trend&Drivers,未来市场的走向和影响因素,Recent Policies&Regulations,近期的相关政策和法规,2,The Auto Market Today,中国的汽车市场,3,The Rise of Per-Capita GDP,人均,GDP,Large Metropolis and Coastal Areas,$3,000-$4,000,直辖市及沿海地区,4,5,Growth Rate of Automobile and Car Production 1993-2005,汽车及轿车产量增幅,(in million units),1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005,Total 1.29 1.35 1.45 1.47 1.58 1.63 1.83 2.07 2.35 3.25 4.46 5.10 5.73,%change 22.1 4.3 7.3 1.38 7.37 3.16 12.3 13.1 13.6 39.0 37.2 14.3 12.3,Cars*0.23 0.25 0.32 0.39 0.48 0.52 0.57 0.60 0.75 1.17 2.11 2.36 2.93,%change 41.1 8.9 30.0 29.4 23.1 8.33 11.5 6.95 23.27 56.0 80.3 11.8 24.2,*Includes sub-category cars and MPVs,6,Adding One Million Units,A,Year,年增百万辆,First Million:1953-1992-40 year,Second Million:1993-2000-8 years,Third Million:2001-2002-2 years,Fourth Million:2003-1 year,Fifth Million:2004 1 years,Sixth Million:2005,over,1 year,Seventh Million:2006 1 year,7,GDP and Output Growth Rates,GDP,和汽车产量增幅,8,Chinas auto market:,myth and reality,中国的汽车市场的真实性,9,10,11,12,Intensifying Competition,竞争激烈,6,3,3,?,13,DF-Yueda-Kia,FAW Car,FAW-VW,SGM,SVW,Hainan-Mazda,GEELY,Tianjin-FAW-Xiali,Tianjin-FAW-Toyota,Changan-Suzuki,Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citron,Chery,Guangzhou-Honda,D-Nissan,Brilliance-Jinbei,BJ-Hyundai,Changan-Ford,NJ-Fiat,Changhe-Suzuki,Hafei Auto,Guizhou-Skylark,Southeast,S-GM-Wuling,Sichuan-Toyota,3+?,Guangzhou-Toyota,Changan-Ford,D-Nissan,Guangzhou-Hyundai,Great Wall,Jianghuai,6+3,14,6,3,Multinationals are all in,跨国公司全部进入,Volkswagen:,大众,SAIC and FAW,GM:,通用,SAIC-GM,Wuling,Dongyue,Jinbei,Ford:,福特,Changan,Nanjing,Jiangling,DaimlerChrysler:,戴,克,BAIC,Southeast,Toyota:,丰田,FAW,GAIC,Honda:,本田,GAIC,Dongfeng,Renault/Nissan:,雷,诺,-,日产,Dongfeng,BMW:,宝马,Brilliance,Jinbei,PSA:,标致雪铁龙,Dongfeng,;,Fiat:,菲亚特,Nanjing,Hyundai-,Kia,:,现代,-,起亚,BAIC,Dongfeng,GAIC,Suzuki:,铃木,Changan,Changhe;,Mitsubishi:,三菱,Southeast,Isuzu:,五十铃,Qingling,;,15,3,？,:,FAW,Dongfeng,SAIC,“,三大？”,BAIC:,北,汽,DaimlerChrysler,Hyundai,Mitsubishi,GAIC:,广,汽,Honda,Toyota,Dongfeng-Nissan Passenger,Changan,Group,:,长安,Ford,Suzuki,Hafei/Changhe,:,哈,飞,/,昌河,Aviation Industry Group,Jianghuai,Auto Group,江淮,Nanjing:,南,汽,Fiat,MG Rover,Southeast(Fujian),：,东南,Mitsubishi,China Motors,Brilliance:,华晨,BMW,Qingling,Motor Group,：,庆,铃,Isuzu,16,3,？,Domestic Investment,国内投资,Chery:,奇,瑞,R&D Center,Engine Plant,Export/JV,Geely:,吉利,R&D Center,Engine plant,Export/JV,BYD(,Qinchuan,):,比亚,迪,HK$254 million/74%shares,Great Wall:,长城,100,000,units car assembly plant,Jianghuai,:,江,淮,light commercial,MPV,car,Lifan,:,力帆,1.6,L car,Zhongxing,:,中兴,SUVs and pickups,Gonow,Auto:,吉,奥,SUVs and pickups,Loncin,:,隆鑫,300,million,bus/,suv,17,Reality and Definition,如何定义,Sedan,轿车,Automobile,汽车,Motor vehicle,机动车,Consumers,消费者,F,amily car,家庭轿车,Price:,价格,100,000,80,000,40,000,30,000,Sedan vs hatchback,三箱,两箱,(,Citro,n,ZX,Xiali,),18,Summary,结论,:,E,existing and potential large market,现实和潜在大市场,Institutional and commercial,公、商务车市场,Consumer market:,消费者市场：摩托车、农用车、微车,Motorcycles,farm vehicles,mini-vehicles,(not 100%),Sedans,轿车,Transition from a centralized to a market system,计划经济向市场经济过渡,19,Future Trend and Drivers,未来市场的走向和影响因素,20,Interaction of Three Forces,三股力量的博弈,Government,World Market,Domestic Market,政府、国际和国内市场,Streamlining of Central Bureaucracies,精简政府机构,Protection of Private Property,公有制和私有制,WTO Impact,世贸组织,The Rise of a Consumer Market,消费者市场的兴起,21,Declining Administrative Control,行政干预逐渐弱化,Ministry of Machinery Industry,机械部,State Administration of Machinery Industry,机械局,China National Automotive Industry Corp.,中汽总,State Economic and Trade Commission,经贸委,Federation of Machinery Industry,机械工业联合会,CAAM/SAE,中国汽车工业协会,/,中国汽车工程学会,22,Emphasis on the Rule of Law,法制增强,Type/Product Approval,认证,Safety:compulsory tests,frontal collision,安全碰撞法规,Emission Control:Euro,III&,II,排放,Consumption Tax,消费税,Consumer Protection:Recall,消费者保护,Fuel consumption level:,然油消耗限制,23,Administrative,Control,行政干预依然存在,Auto Industry Development Policy,产业政策,（,2004,）,Market entry,市场准入,50:50 Equity Share JV for OEMs,股比限制,Two JVs for the same type of vehicles,项目限制,24,Different departmental priorities,(,部门交叉管理）,SDRC:,发改委,Circular(investment threshold),State Assets Commission,国资委,Large State-owned companies,MOFCOM:,商务部,Investment,Sales,Export,Quality Inspection,，,Supervision&Quarantine:,质监局,Administration of Taxation:,税务局,Taxation,Industry and Commerce:,工商局,Business License,Public Security:,公安局,Vehicle License&Registration,Communications:,交通部,Maintenance&Repair,Ministry of Science&Technology:,科技部,25,Market vs.Central Planning,市场和计划经济,State Council DRC,国务院发展研究中心,Government Should Not Interfere,政府不宜干预,Equal Access and Fair Competition,公平竞争,26,Driven