宏观经济学原理课件4

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second Level,Third Level,Fourth Level,Fifth Level,Production and Growth,生产与增长,Chapter 4,Analysis Approach,LEARNING OBJECTIVES,By the end of this chapter, we should understand:, how much,economic growth,differs around the world.,世界各国,经济增长,有多大不同, why,productivity,is the key determinant of a countrys standard of living.,为什么,生产率,是一国生活水平的关键决定因素, the,factors,that determine a countrys productivity.,决定一国生产率的,因素, how a countrys,policies,influence its productivity growth.,一国的,政策,如何影响其生产率增长,Production and Growth,Video US PRODUCTIVITY DECLINES IN Q2.mp4,Production and Growth,生产与增长,A countrys standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.,一国的生活水平决定于它生产物品与劳务的能力。,Production and Growth,生产与增长,Within a country there are large changes in the standard of living over time.,即使在一个国家内，生活水平也随着时间推移而发生了巨大变化。,Production and Growth,生产与增长,In the United States over the past century, average income as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year.,在美国过去一个世纪里，按人均实际,GDP,衡量的平均收入每年增长2左右。,Production and Growth,Productivity,refers to the amount of goods and services produced for each hour of a workers time.,A nations standard of living is determined by the productivity of its workers.,生产与增长,生产率,是指一个工人一小时生产的物品与劳务量。,一国的生活水平决定于它的工人的生产率。,Table 1 The Variety of Growth Experiences,Copyright2004 South-Western,表,1.,不同,的增长经历,Copyright2004 South-Western,国别 时期 期初人均,GDP,期末人均,GDP,增长率（每年）,日本 18902000 1 256美元 26 460美元 2.81,巴西 19002000 650 7 320 2.45,墨西哥 19002000 968 8 810 2.23,加拿大 18702000 1 984 27 330 2.04,德国 18702000 1 825 25 010 2.03,中国 19002000 598 3 940 1.90,阿根廷 19002000 1 915 12,090 1.86,美国 18702000 3 347 34 260 1.81,印度 19002000 564 2 390 1.45,印度尼西亚 19002000 743 2 840 1.35,英国 18702000 4 107 23 550 1.35,巴基斯坦 19002000 616 1 960 1.16,孟加拉国 19002000 520 1 652 1.16,Economic Growth Around the World,世界各国的经济增长,Living standards, as measured by real GDP per person, vary significantly among nations.,人均实际,GDP,数据表明各国生活水平差别很大。,Economic Growth Around the World,世界各国的经济增长,The poorest countries have average levels of income that have not been seen in the United States for many decades.,最穷的国家的平均收入水平是美国几十年来所没有看到的。,Economic Growth Around the World,Annual growth rates that seem small become large when compounded for many years.,Compounding,refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time.,世界各国的经济增长,看起来很小的增长率在许多年的复利计算之后变得很大。,复利计算,是指在一个时期内的增长率的累积。,Compounding and the Rule of 70,复利计算与70规则的魔力,According to the,rule of 70, if some variable grows at a rate of x percent per year, then that variable doubles in approximately 70/x years.,根据,70规则，,如果某个变量每年按,x%,增长，那么在将近70/,x,年以后该变量翻一番。,An Example of the Rule of 70,$5,000,invested at 7 percent interest per year, will double in size in 10 years,70/ 7 = 10,70,规则的一个例子,每年利率为7的5000美元投资在10年后的价值翻一番。,70/ 7 = 10,PRODUCTIVITY: ITS ROLE AND DETERMINANTS,生产率:作用及决定因素,Productivity plays a key role in determining living standards for all nations in the world.,生产率在决定世界上所有国家的生活水平方面起着关键的作用。,Why Productivity Is So Important,为什么生产率如此重要,Productivity refers to the quantity of goods and services that a worker can produce from each hour of work.,生产率是指一个工人一小时内所生产的物品与劳务量。,Why Productivity Is So Important,为什么生产率如此重要,To understand the large differences in living standards across countries. We must focus on the production of goods and services.,为了理解各国生活水平的巨大差别，我们必须集中在物品与劳务的生产上。,How Productivity Is Determined,生产率是如何决定的,The inputs used to produce goods and services are called the,factors of production,.,用于生产物品与劳务的投入被称为,生产要素,The factors of production directly determine productivity.,生产要素直接决定了生产率。,How Productivity Is Determined,生产率是如何决定的,The Factors of Production,生产要素,Physical capital,物质资本,Human capital,人力资本,Natural resources,自然资源,Technological knowledge,技术知识,How Productivity Is Determined,Physical Capital,is a produced factor of production.,It is an input into the production process that in the past was an output from the production process.,is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services.,Tools used to build or repair automobiles.,Tools used to build furniture.,Office buildings, schools, etc.,生产率是如何决定的,物质资本,是生产出来的生产要素。,它是生产过程的投入，也是过去生产过程的产出。,是用于生产物品与劳务的设备与建筑物的存量。,用于生产或修理汽车的工具。,用于生产家具的工具。,办公楼，学校等等,How Productivity Is Determined,Human Capital,the economists term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through education, training, and experience,Like physical capital, human capital raises a nations ability to produce goods and services.,生产率是如何决定的,人力资本,经济学家用来指工人通过教育、培训和经验而获得的知识和技能的一个术语,。,和物质资本一样，人力资本提高一个国家生产物品与劳务的能力。,How Productivity Is Determined,Natural Resources,inputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits.,Renewable resources include trees and forests.,Nonrenewable resources include petroleum and coal.,can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly productive in producing goods and services.,生产率是如何决定的,自然资源,由自然界提供的用于生产物品与劳务的投入，如土地、河流和矿藏。,可再生资源包括树木和森林。,不可再生资源包括石油和煤炭。,可能是重要的，但它们并不是一个经济体生产物品与劳务中生产率高的必要条件。,How Productivity Is Determined,Technological Knowledge,societys understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services.,Human capital,refers to the resources expended transmitting this understanding to the labor force.,生产率是如何决定的,技术知识,社会对生产物品与劳务的最好方法的理解。,人力资本是指把这些理解传递给劳动力的资源消耗。,The Production Function,生产函数,Economists often use a production function to describe the relationship between the quantity of inputs used in production and the quantity of output from production.,经济学家经常用生产函数来描述用于生产的投入量和生产的产出量之间的关系。,The Production Function,Y = A F(L, K, H, N),Y,=,quantity of output,A,=,available production technology,L,=,quantity of labor,K,=,quantity of physical capital,H,=,quantity of human capital,N,=,quantity of natural resources,F( ),is a function that shows how the inputs are combined.,生产函数,Y = A F(L, K, H, N),Y,=,产出量,A,=,可得到的生产技术,L,=,劳动量,K,=,物质资本量,H,=,人力资本量,N,=,自然资源量,F( ),是一个表示投入如何结合起来以生产 产出的函数。,The Production Function,生产函数,A production function has constant returns to scale if, for any positive number,x,如果给定任何一个正数,x，,下式成立，则该生产函数的规模收益不变。,xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN),That is, a doubling of all inputs causes the amount of output to double as well.,这就是说，投入翻番就会使产出翻番。,The Production Function,Production functions with constant returns to scale have an interesting implication.,Setting,x = 1/L,Y/,L = A F(1, K/,L, H/,L, N/,L),Where:,Y/L,=,output per worker,K/L,=,physical capital per worker,H/L,=,human capital per worker,N/L,=,natural resources per worker,生产函数,规模收益不变的生产函数有一个令人感兴趣的含义。,设,x = 1/L,Y/,L = A F(1, K/,L, H/,L, N/,L),这里,:,Y/L,=,每个工人的产量,K/L,=,每个工人的物质资本,H/L,=,每个工人的人力资本,N/L,=,每个工人的自然资源,The Production Function,The preceding equation says that productivity,(,Y/L,),depends on physical capital per worker,(,K/L,), human capital per worker,(,H/L,), and natural resources per worker,(,N/L,), as well as the state of technology,(,A,),.,生产函数,这个公式说明，生产率,(,Y/L,),取决于每个工人的物质资本,(,K/L,),，,每个工人的人力资本,(,H/L,)，,每个工人的自然资源，,(,N/L,),，,以及技术状况,(,A,),.,Representatives,Economic Growth and Public Policy,经济增长与公共政策,Governments can do many things to raise productivity and living standards.,政府可以做很多事情来提高生产率和生活水平。,ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC POLICY,Government Policies That Raise Productivity and Living Standards,Encourage saving and investment.,Encourage investment from abroad,Encourage education and training.,Establish secure property rights and maintain political stability.,Promote free trade.,Promote research and development.,经济增长与公共政策,提高生产率和生活水平的政府政策,鼓励储蓄和投资,鼓励来自国外的投资,鼓励教育和培训,建立完善的产权保护机制和政治稳定,促进自由贸易,促进研究与开发,The Importance of Saving and Investment,储蓄与投资的重要性,One way to raise future productivity is to invest more current resources in the production of capital.,提高未来生产率的一种方法就是把更多现期资源投资于资本的生产。,Figure 1 Growth and Investment,(,a,),G,r,o,w,t,h,R,a,t,e,1,9,6,0,1991,(,b,),I,n,v,e,s,t,m,e,n,t,1,9,6,0,1991,South Korea,Singapore,Japan,Israel,Canada,Brazil,West Germany,Mexico,United Kingdom,Nigeria,United States,India,Bangladesh,Chile,Rwanda,South Korea,Singapore,Japan,Israel,Canada,Brazil,West Germany,Mexico,United Kingdom,Nigeria,United States,India,Bangladesh,Chile,Rwanda,Investment (percent of GDP),Growth Rate (percent),0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,0,10,20,30,40,(,a) 1960-1991,增长率,(,b) 1960-1991,投资,韩国,新加坡,日本,以色列,加拿大,巴西,西德,墨西哥,英国,尼日利亚,美国,印度,孟加拉国,智利,卢旺达,增长率 (百分比,),0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,South Korea,Singapore,Japan,Israel,Canada,Brazil,West Germany,Mexico,United Kingdom,Nigeria,United States,India,Bangladesh,Chile,Rwanda,投资 (,GDP,的),0,10,20,30,40,图1. 增长与投资,Harrod-Domar model,(,哈罗德,-,多马模型,),Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect,As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called,diminishing returns.,Because of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a while.,收益递减与追赶效应,随着资本存量的增加，从增加的一个单位资本中生产额外产量减少。这种特性被称为,收益递减。,因为收益递减，储蓄率增加所引起的更高的增长只是暂时的。,Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect,收益递减与追赶效应,In the long run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but,not,to higher growth in these areas.,在长期中，高储蓄率引起高水平的生产率和收入，但在这些变量中并没有高增长。,Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect,收益递减与追赶效应,The,catch-up effect,refers to the condition that, other things being equal, it is easier for a country to grow fast if it starts out relatively poor.,追赶效应,是指在其他条件相同的情况下，如果一国开始时较穷，它要迅速增长是容易的。,凯恩斯三大心理规律,1.,边际消费倾向递减,(,Law of diminishing marginal propensity to consume,),2.,资本边际效率递减,(Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns),3.,流动性偏好,(,Liquidity preference,),Investment from Abroad,来自国外的投资,Governments can increase capital accumulation and long-term economic growth by encouraging investment from foreign sources.,政府可以通过鼓励来自国外的投资来增加资本积累和长期的经济增长。,Investment from Abroad,Investment from abroad takes several forms:,Foreign Direct Investment,Capital investment owned and operated by a foreign entity.,Foreign Portfolio Investment,Investments financed with foreign money but operated by domestic residents.,来自国外的投资,来自国外的投资采取几种形式：,外国直接投资,由外国实体拥有并经营的资本投资。,外国有价证券投资,用外国货币筹资，但由国内居民经营的投资。,Education,For a countrys long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital.,In the United States, each year of schooling raises a persons wage on average by about 10 percent.,Thus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to provide schools and encourage the population to take advantage of them.,教育,教育对一个国家的长期经济成功至少与物质资本投资同样重要。,在美国，每一年正规教育使人的平均收入增加10左右。,因此，政府可以提高生活水平的一种方法是提供良好的学校，并鼓励人们利用这些学校。,Education,教育,An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, which in turn, might enter societys pool of knowledge and provide an,external benefit,to others.,一个受过教育的人会产生一些有关如何最好地生产物品与劳务的新思想，这些新思想进入社会知识库，并给他人带来,外部效益。,Education,教育,One problem facing some poor countries is the,brain drain,-the emigration of many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries.,一些贫穷国家面临的一个问题是,人才外流,许多受过最高教育的工人移民到富国。,Property Rights and Political Stability,Property rights,refer to the ability of people to exercise authority over the resources they own.,An economy-wide respect for property rights is an important prerequisite for the price system to work.,It is necessary for investors to feel that their investments are secure.,产权和政治稳定,产权是指人们对其拥有的资源行使权力的能力。,价格制度发生作用的一个重要前提是经济中广泛尊重产权。,让投资者感到他们的投资安全是必要的。,Free Trade,Trade is, in some ways, a type of technology.,A country that eliminates trade restrictions will experience the same kind of economic growth that would occur after a major technological advance.,自由贸易,在某些方面，贸易是一种技术。,取消了贸易限制的国家将有重大技术进步以后出现的同类经济增长。,Free Trade,Some countries engage in . . .,. . .,inward-orientated,trade policies, avoiding interaction with other countries.,. . .,outward-orientated,trade policies, encouraging interaction with other countries.,自由贸易,一些国家实施 . . .,. . .,内向型,贸易政策, 避免与世界其他国家相互交易。,. . .,外向型,贸易政策，鼓励与其他国家相互交易。,Research and Development,The advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living.,Most technological advance comes from private research by firms and individual inventors.,Government can encourage the development of new technologies through research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system.,研究与开发,技术知识的进步带来更高的生活水平。,大多数技术进步来自企业和个人所进行的私人研究。,政府通过补贴、减税和专利制度来鼓励新技术的开发。,CASE STUDY:,The Productivity Slowdown and Speedup,From 1959 to 1973 productivity grew at a rate of 3.2 percent per year.,From 1973 to 1995 productivity grew by only 1.5 percent per year.,Productivity accelerated again in 1995, growing by 2.6 percent per year on average during the next six years.,案例研究:,生产率增长放慢与加快,从 1959 年到 1973 年，生产率每年增长3.2。,从1973到,1995,年，生产率每年增长只有1.5。,从1995年开始，生产率增长又加快了，在随后的6年里平均每年增长2.6。,CASE STUDY:,The Productivity Slowdown and Speedup,The causes of the changes in productivity growth are elusive.,The slowdown cannot be traced to the factors of production that are most easily measured.,Many economists attribute the slowdown and speedup in economic growth to changes in technology and the creation of new ideas.,案例研究:,生产率增长放慢与加快,生产率增长变化的原因是捉摸不定的。,这种生产率放慢不能追溯到那些最容易衡量的生产要素。,许多经济学家把经济增长快慢归因于技术变革和新思想的创造。,Figure 2 The Growth in Real GDP Per Person,Growth Rate,(,percent,per year),1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,3.0,3.5,4.0,1,8,7,0,1890,1,8,9,0,1910,1,9,1,0,1930,1,9,3,0,1950,1,9,5,0,1970,1,9,7,0,1990,1,9,9,0,2000,0,增长率（每年百分比）,Population Growth,人口增长,Economists and other social scientists have long debated how population growth affects a society。,长期以来，经济学家和其他社会学家一直争论人口增长如何影响一个社会。,Population Growth,Population growth interacts with other factors of production:,Stretching natural resources,Diluting the capital stock,Promoting technological progress,人口增长,人口增长与其他生产要素相互作用,:,使自然资源量更加紧张,稀释了资本存量,促进了技术进步,Summary,Economic prosperity, as measured by real GDP per person, varies substantially around the world.,The average income of the worlds richest countries is more than ten times that in the worlds poorest countries.,The standard of living in an economy depends on the economys ability to produce goods and services.,内容提要,按人均,GDP,衡量的经济繁荣在世界各国差别很大。,世界最富裕国家的平均收入是世界最贫穷国家的10倍以上。,一国经济的生活水平取决于该经济生产物品与劳务的能力。,Summary,Productivity depends on the amounts of physical capital, human capital, natural resources, and technological knowledge available to workers.,Government policies can influence the economys growth rate in many different ways.,内容提要,生产率取决于物质资本量、人力资本量、自然资源量和技术知识。,政府政策可以以许多方式影响经济的增长率。,Summary,The accumulation of capital is subject to diminishing returns.,Because of diminishing returns, higher saving leads to a higher growth for a period of time, but growth will eventually slow down.,Also because of diminishing returns, the return to capital is especially high in poor countries.,内容提要,资本积累受收益递减的限制。,因为收益递减，高储蓄率会引起一定时期内的经济增长，但增长最终会放慢。,也是因为收益递减，穷国资本的收益率特别高。,