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Text: 14-point Times New Roman with 70 percent Wingdings square bullet,100 percent Times New Roman round bullet (Alt 0149),100 percent Times New Roman em dash bullet (Alt 0151),100 percent Times New Roman en dash bullet (Alt 0150),Major (24 Point) or Minor (18 Point) Times New Roman Bold, Title Case/GP headline (18 point) Time New Roman sentence case,8,Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook -final/,97,July, 2001,COSCO IPO SUPPORT MATERIALS,Logistics Services Industry Environment & Trend Analysis,- COSCO Comments and A.T. Kearney Remarks,The contents of this document were prepared by A.T. Kearney and may not be used, altered or disclosed to other parties, without the written permission of A.T. Kearney.,The information contained in this document has been obtained from external sources which A.T. Kearney believes are reliable. However, A.T. Kearney can make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or projections derived therefrom.,Table of Contents,Executive Summary,Market Size & Growth,Global,China,Service Demand,Global Trends,China Trends,Competitive Environment,Global,China,Regulatory Environment,Information Technology,Appendix,Executive Summary,A.T. Kearneys definition of the logistics services industry,Structuring and managing, on behalf of cargo owners, solutions involving some combination of parts of the supply chain (i.e. transportation, warehousing, (de)consolidation, etc.),The logistics service industry represent a tremendous growth opportunity, both globally and in China,Market Characteristic,Conclusion,Customers are increasingly demanding high value logistics service solutions, requiring global reach and advanced supply chain management capabilities,Increasing demand for global reach and capabilities fuels consolidation as large full service providers are positioning themselves for success,Chinas entry into WTO is expected to have two main implications,- the logistics market will grow rapidly, and competitive intensity will dramatically increase,Strong IT capabilities is becoming a core capability of logistics services providers and is critical to building a logistics services business,Market Size & Growth,Service Demand,Competitive,Environment,Regulatory,Environment,Information,Technology,Source: A.T. Kearney,The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$ 190 Bn in 2000. The China market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35% over the next five years,The China logistics industry will be shaped by Chinas entry into the WTO and the subsequent opening of the market to foreign competition,Industry Scenario 2006,Rapid increase in M&A activities,Key alliances formed within the next 2-3 years,Rapid expansion of global players offering sophisticated end-to-end solution, including logistics, transportation and IT,Implementation of e-commerce initiatives and increasing dependence on IT network,Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances,Global Competitors,Technology,The logistics market will grow rapidly,Competitive intensity will dramatically increase,WTO Entry,Source: A.T. Kearney,1.,Market Size & Growth,The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$ 190 Bn in 2000,The global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$ 190 Bn in 2000,The transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$ 3.8 Trillion in 2000, and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3% over the next 5 years,The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$ 31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39% over the next five years,The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport, warehousing, and transport management,The growth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growth,Customer electronics, automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in China,The China market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35% over the next five years,The China logistics services market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 years,The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China,The transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs - indicating a major improvement opportunity,In Coastal China, demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and Shanghai,In Inland China, the largest demand potential is in Sichuan and the Hubei/Yangtze river region,Growth in the logistics services industry in China will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and increased propensity to outsource logistics,Favorable macro economic outlook,Public policy and spending,Increasing interest in outsourcing for logistics needs,Growing IT and E-business,Market Size & Growth,- Global,The global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$ 190 Bn in 2000,Source: Chinainfobank, CSFB, A.T. Kearney,Global Transportation and Logistics Market Size (2000),Transportation and related activities handled by manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers themselves(e.g. private fleet, private warehousing),Discrete sets of transportation and related services outsourced by manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers,(e.g. public warehousing etc.),Combination of “transportation and related services” provisioned by 3,rd,party logistics service providers,US$ 3,800 Bn,Outsourced,US$190 Bn,Global transportation and related expenditures,Global outsourced transportation and related services,Global logistics outsourcing market,US$ Bn,The transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$ 3.8 Trillion in 2000, and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3% over the next 5 years,Note: (1) Asia includes Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan,Source: Bowersox and Calantone; CSFB; A.T. Kearney Analysis,Transportation and Related Expenditures by Region (2000),Transportation and Related Expenditures by Function (2000),US$ Bn,Total = US$ 3,837 Bn,Others: -1.4%,Asia,(1),: 2.2%,Europe: 2.6%,North America:,4.0%,3,424,3,837,4,389,CAGR=2.3%,CAGR=2.8%,Warehousing,$304 Bn,Transport,$2,204 Bn,Others,$55 Bn,Shipper-Related,$20 Bn,Inventory,$1,102 Bn,Admin,$152 Bn,CAGR 2000-2006,The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$ 31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39% over the next five years,Note:Asia includes China, Japan, Honk Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan,Source:Bowersox and Calantone; CSFB; A.T. Kearney Analysis,Logistics Outsourcing Market in Asia - Gross Revenue,(US$ Bn),CAGR (99-01) = 38%,CAGR (01-06) = 39%,The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport, warehousing, and transport management,Transport,Warehousing,TransportManagement,IT,SupplementaryLogistic Services,Purchase OrderManagement,LogisticsManagement,30%,47%,48%,85%,20%,40%,39%,76%,23%,2%,5%,16%,%,of respondents outsourcing 1998,% of respondents planed outsourcing 2003,13%,8%,Outsourcing by Function,Resource,require-,ments,Complexity,Note:The percentage may not add up to 100% due to rounding,Source: Based on several A.T. Kearney studies, including:,Worldwide study comprising 280 participants (automotive 19%, electronics 25%, retail 27%, chemicals 29%),European study comprising 500 participants (retail 26%, food & beverage 26%, commodities 22%, machinery 12%, automotive 7%, electronics & high-tech 4%),Outsourcing of non-core business activities,Organic growth of transportation markets,Increased complexity of global supply chains,Recognition by many shippers that supply chain strategy may be a key competitive advantage,Willingness to outsource when logistics not seen as core competency,Development of superior logistics capability by a few 3PLs,Growth in demand for transportation services expands with international trade growth,Globalization of many industries means goods need to move over longer distances at faster speeds with higher reliability,Growth in Logistics Services,Source: UBS Warburg, IDC,Growth Drivers,Details,1,2,The growth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growth,Consumer electronics, automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in China,Note: 1. Size of circle relative to segment size in 2000,2. Analysis is indicative only,Source: A.T. Kearney field interviews and research,High,Low,Growth (2001-2006),Remarks,Highly market-oriented, need quick response to consumer feedback,Manufacturers have to to improve operation efficiency continuously due to intense competition,Relatively high product value and less price sensitive,High requirement for timing and reliability of liners,High gross margin industry, production cost and logistics account for less percentage of sales,Prefer timely feedback from destination ports, i.e.trade consulting services,Automotive supplies involve over 30,000 parts, which need consolidating suppliers to handle logistics,Intense competition drives companies to reduce cost, current inefficiency in self-handling leads companies to consider outsourcing services actively,High value products, not very price sensitive, but sometimes decisions are made overseas,Packing requirement involves technical difficulties, unwilling to outsource logistics services,High profit industry, not very price sensitive,High quality requirement for dry, no smell, no leaking containers, hence containerized in factory,Clearance of cigarettes needs to be done by professional I/E companies or manufactures,Large and special shape, therefore the way to put them into containers can impact the number of containers to be used, which directly related to cost - usually done in-house,Cost sensitive, firms usually choose less busy season to get cheaper prices,Frozen products and fresh products need to be handled fast with care,Other products are low-value and need no special services,Low value products, highly price sensitive,Lower quality requirement, usually containerized at ports,Consumer Electronics,Apparel,Automotive,Machinery,Tobacco & Liquor,Furniture,Primary Goods,Chemicals&Materials,Industry,Low,High,Consumer,Electronics,A,pparel,Automotive,Outsourcing Propensity,Tobacco,Liquor,Primary,G,oods,Opportunity Assessment by Industry,Chemicals,&Materials,Furniture,M,achinery,Add market and trends analysis by industry,Market Size & Growth,- China,The China logistics services market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 years,Logistics Outsourcing Market - Gross Revenue (2000, US$ Bn),Note:Asia includes China, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan,Source:Bowersox and Calantone; CSFB; A.T. Kearney Estimates,CAGR=35%,190,23,0.61,China Logistics Service Market,(US$, Bn),The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China,Characteristics,Emerging demand for outsourced logistics services,Low value added services such as transport and warehousing are the major type of services outsourced,Traditional in-house behaviour being impacted,Fast growth of logistics user base and higher requirement for broader services,Large number of services providers competing for customers and human resources,Most high value added services are free and provided as,selling,points,Logistics outsourcing becomes common practice and an important lever for competition,Consolidated service market with a few established market leaders,Logistics penetrate in supply chain and replace traditional business models,Global logistics integrators provide one-stop solution worldwide,Specialization and close cooperation among global logistics service providers,Optimized,allocation and integration of resources along the supply chain,Stage,Emergence,Growth,Penetration,Globalization,World Leading,(US),China,Today,Source: A.T. Kearney,Warehousing and Distribution,Trucking,Rail Freight,Although Heavily Used, Railway Freight Has Long Transit Times and Service Reliability Is Poor,Railway Containers Are Not Compatible With Shipping Company Containers,Airline,Customs Brokerage,Courier,Limited Presence of Foreign Firms As JV E.G. DHL,Sinotrans,Regional Segregation in Operation,Logistics Center and,Freight Forwarding,Shipping,The domestic warehousing market is currently small and over-supplied with basic warehouses providing virtually no value-added services,Some consolidation just started among the large warehousing companies,River transportation has declined,Most vessels are characterized by low speed and high energy costs,Trucking companies are only allowed to operate in restricted regions,Government has established 15 Free Trade Zones and some logistics centers are set up there,Inland transportation is handled by domestic freight forwarder who is usually sub-contracted by the international freight forwarder,Seven,domestic airlines dominate regional operations,Designated foreign carriers are given a maximum entitlement of 50,tonnes,per week,Many customs clearing brokerage firms and considerable confusion about roles,Customs clearing procedures took at least - 1 day previously but expected to be shortened to1 hour,The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China (continued),Source: A.T. Kearney Analysis,China Logistics Services,Transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs indicating a major improvement opportunity,Total Transportation and Related Expenditures and % of GDP (2000),Note: (1) VAS: Value-added-services,(2) Including packaging, admin, information services, ect.,Source: Bowersox and Calantone, CSFB, IMF 1997 study; Chinainfobank; A.T. Kearney Analysis,US$ Bn,China Transportation and Related Expenditures Breakdown by Function (2000),Total = US$ 248 Bn,US$ Bn,(1),(,2,),Demand Growth,In Coastal China, demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and Shanghai,High,Low,Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin,4,Beijing is the No. 1 air cargo center in China. In addition, Beijings hi-tech industry, which needs a lot of air transportation, is developing very fast,Over 80% of the volume through,Tianjin,port are agricultural products, furniture, metal hardware and raw materials, all being low value products. In addition, most shippers are in poor financial conditions and are very price sensitive,Shandong (Qingdao),4,Qingdao,has several famous local companies, such as,Haier,HiSense,Aukma,and,Qingdao,Beer. They are more quality oriented and less price sensitive,Frozen products account for 15-20% of the volume. Quality requirements for frozen products are very high in terms of timing and handling care. Hence, frozen products shippers tend to be less price sensitive and more quality concerned,Footwear and garments account for significant portion. Some large customers such as Payless Shoes (No. 1 customer of COSCO in volume) requires accurate shipping time and full range of sophisticated 3PL services from P/O management, trade consulting to space booking, warehousing and transportation,Province,Logistics Demand Selected Provinces in Coastal China,Guangdong,Demand Size,5,Remarks,Major exports are processing of,lower,value-added products,no special requirement for logistics quality;,Road transportation is convenient, often containerized in factory to reduce cost,less need for warehousing/ consolidation,Electronics industry is booming in,Dongguan, which has some leading companies like,Huawei, potential,large profitable customers,Strong,Weak,Shanghai,(Jiangsu, Zhejiang),5,Shanghai is the fast growing economic/ financial center in China, which has some major,MNCs,such as SGM, Acer, Philips, etc. They are matured customers of logistics services and less price sensitive. On the other hand, to get the deals from them usually needs to involve high level,negociation,Large companies in Shanghai and nearby areas are mainly JVs of automobile and consumer electronics industry, which have high product value and lower price sensitivity,Source: A.T. Kearney field interviews and analysis,Demand Size,Sichuan (Chengdu),Have the 3rd largest distribution center in China, the largest population, and important heavy industry base,The logistics industry there has already attracted interest of foreign large shippers like Ikea and investors including Hutchison,Whampoa,Located in mountain areas, road transport infrastructure is inconvenient, so highly relying on rail transport,Chongqing,2,Agricultural products, metal products and motor cycles, which totally account for over 80% of the export volume, are all low-value products, price sensitive and have flat growth,Underdeveloped infrastructure, esp. road and rail transportation have limited foreign investments in this region. Cargoes usually transported by barges, which is the cheapest mode,Province,In inland China, the largest demand potential is in Sichuan and the Hubei/Yangtze river region,Logistics Demand Selected Provinces in Inland China,Yunnan,2,Demand,Growth,Remarks,Most important export industry is tobacco, which has high profit margin, high quality requirement for logistics services, and not very price sensitive,Exports for wood, wooden materials and furniture, which accounted for over 30% of export volume before, are largely reduced due to newly imposed government sanction on cutting trees,High,Low,Strong,Weak,Source: A.T. Kearney field interviews and analysis,Hubei, Yangtze River Region,3,Exports are low-value products including tobacco, cotton, chemicals and steel materials,Many imports are material for JVs (e.g.,Citreon,and,Dongfeng,Cummins), of which decisions are usually made overseas,Market is very fragmented and shippers generally have small scale/volume,No warehouses/piling centers with modern container handling capacity and advanced IT structure are available, can be a potential development area,3,Growth in the logistics services industry in China will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and increased propensity to outsource logistics,Growth Driver,Implication,The Chinese economy is expected to grow at CAGR 7% over the next five years. Increased,international and domestic trade will drive demand for logistics services,Public policy and spending supports improvements in Chinas logistics infrastructure, providing opportunities for further expansion of logistics service providers. Capable foreign service providers are limited in business scope by regulation, and their full entry after,WTO will drive the industry toward international best practices,There is increasing interest among China-based enterprises in outsourcing for logistics services. Overseas businesses are extending their supply chains deeper into China,The fast growing market in online B2B transactions provides an additional market segment for logistics services,Favorable Growth Outlook for,the China Logistics Services Industry,Favorable Macro Economic Outlook,Public Policy and Spending,Increasing Interest in Outsourcing for Logistics Needs,Growing IT and E-Business,1,2,3,4,Source: A.T. Kearney Analysis,The Chinese economy is expected to grow at CAGR 7% over the next five years,Source: Chinainfobank, A.T. Kearney Analysis,Projection of Chinas GDP Growth and Structure (RMB, Bn),Continuous growth in GDP indicates a robust and fast growing macro economy, providing opportunities for sophisticated logistics service providers,The economic structure will be continuously optimized and upgraded,Logistics is directly correlated with the manufacturing industry, therefore growth of secondary industries will lead to the growth of
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