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ModernCapitalismastheSolutiontotheFinancialCrisis:TheCauxRoundTableApproachStephenB.YoungGlobalExecutiveDirectorTheCauxRoundTableBelgrade,December200812FinancialmeltdownsareasystematicDysfunctionofcapitalismTulipmania1620MississippicompanyFrance1719/1720SouthSeaCompanyLondon1711/1720WallStreet1929Junkbonds1980sDs/telecom1990sSub-primemortgages/CDOs3Men,ithasbeenwellsaid,thinkinherds;itwillbeseenthattheygomadinherds,whiletheyonlyrecovertheirsensesslowly,andonebyone!CharlesMackay“IrrationalExuberance”AlanGreenspan4CharlesMacKay,Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,withaforewordbyAndrewTobias(1841;NewYork:HarmonyBooks,1980).MikeDash,Tulipomania:The Story of the Worlds Most Coveted Flower and the Extraordinary Passions It Aroused(1999)PeterM.Garber,Famous First Bubbles:The Fundamentals of Early Manias(Cambridge,MA:MITPress,2000).Charles Kindleberger,Manias,Panics,and Crashes:A History of Financial Crises(Wiley,2005,5thedition)5WhatCausesaFinancialCrisis?Mis-pricingofriskIncreasesinrealriskarenotcapturedinnominalmarketpricesAssetpricesbecomeirrationalValuationbecomesunrealistic6PresentvaluereflectstheriskofactuallyreceivingfutureincomeCapitalvalueisafunctionofincome!Misjudgmentsaboutfutureincomedistortpresentcapitalvalues7Infinancialbubbles,mis-pricingissustainedbyinfusionsofdebtHigherandhigherassetvaluesaresupportedbyborrowedfundsExcessliquiditybasedonfuturepromisestopaytransformsinvestmentintospeculation;atradingmentalitytakesoverthemarkets;prudencelosesouttogreed;illusiontrumpsrealityforatime8OfalltheoffspringofTime,Erroristhemostancient,andissooldandfamiliaranacquaintance,thatTruth,whendiscovered,comesuponmostofuslikeanintruder,andmeetstheintruderswelcome.9DynamicsoftheCurrentCrisisSub-primemortgageloansmade,moreandmoreagainstfutureresalevalueofthehome,notagainstrealincomeMortgageloanspackagedandsoldtoglobalcapitalmarketsCollateralDebtObligations(CDOs)issuedtofinancepurchasesofpackagesofsub-primemortgagesandtoinvestinhedgefundsCreditDefaultSwapsinventedtogiveaddedvaluetoCDOsDebtupondebtupondebtLowinterestrateenvironmentIncentivestructuredrivenbyfeesnotinvestmentinlongtermreturns10CurrentCrisisisGlobalAIGFortisIcelandEUguaranteesbankdepositsUKtakesovertwobanksEquitymarketsinAsiatankPriceofOildropsby50%Realeconomiesloseemploymentandconsumerdemand11Whenfinancialmarketsimplode,capitalismlosesliquidity,exchangesofgoodsandservicesfall,outputisreduced,employmentiscutDebtmustbetakenoutofthefinancialsystemAssetvalueshavetoberesetatlowerlevelsAssetownersloosewealth12WorldEconomicOrderhasinadequatemechanismstopreventfinancialcrisesWTOIMFWorldBankG8OECDBankforInternationalSettlements13CentralBanksmuststepupandinjectliquidityintotheglobalsystemoffinancialintermediationGovernmentbudgetsmustinjectnewcapitalinfinancialinstitutionsBankruptciesmusteliminateamountsofliquiditybothequityanddebtBearSterns-$80to$2-LehmanBrothers-liquidated14Whatisthefairvalueofaninvestmentinbusiness?QualityIncomeStreamHighnetpresentdiscountedvalueGoodcapitalizationmultiplierGoodCorporateValue(WarrenBuffetwouldbuyit)15Todaywheredoesmostcorporatevaluecomefrom?IntangibleAssets!1650BestPerformersof2005BusinessWeekBurlingtonNorthernSantaFe:Marketvalue:$29.2billionBalancesheetassets:103%ofmarketvalue($30.3billion)Goodwill:NoneCaterpillar:Marketvalue:$49billionBalancesheetassets:95.9%Goodwill:4.1%UnitedHealthGroup:Marketvalue:$79billionBalancesheetassets:52%Goodwill:48%Apple:Marketvalue:$58billionBalancesheetassets:19.8%Goodwill:80.2%1750BestPerformersof2005BusinessWeekMicrosoft:Marketvalue:$279billionBalancesheetassets:33.7%Goodwill:66.3%BestBuy:Marketvalue:$26.3billionBalancesheetassets:39%Goodwill:61%Starbucks:Marketvalue:$27.8billionBalancesheetassets:12%Goodwill:88%GoldmanSachs:Marketvalue:$61.7billionBalancesheetassets:1.1%Goodwill:98.9%18WhatistheMostCommonFormofIntangibleWealth?GovernmentIssuedFiatMoneyItsvalueistobeusedaslegaltenderWhatisaDollarworthtoday?Adollarbillhasnotangibleworth;whatisthevalueofinkonpaper?Itsvalueliesinthemindofwhoeverwilltakeit.19WhatisAnotherVeryDesirableCommonFormofIntangibleWealth?StocksandBondsWhoDeterminestheirValues?20FinancialMeltdownof2008BearStearns:onFriday,$80persharebookvalue;onSundaysoldfor$2pershareLehmanBrothers:Billionsinbalancesheetassets;liquidatedasnoonewantedtobuythemonagoingconcernbasis21Whatisacompanyworth?Howtowemeasureitsvalue?Mostsimplecalculation:DiscountednetpresentvalueoffutureincomeXcapitalizationmultiplier22FirstFundamentalConclusionYoucannotestablishvaluewithoutputtingriskintothecalculationWhatistheriskofnotachievingpredictedfuturerevenue?Howcertainareestimatesoffutureincome?Whataretheriskfactorsthatdeterminethecapitalizationmultiplier?AhigherriskdemandsalowermultiplierHigherriskmoreuncertaintylowerpresentvalue23Note:Eachsourceofriskdrivesbusinessvalueupordown24SecondFundamentalConclusionManagementofRiskEnhancesEnterpriseValue-Riskmanagementleadstomorecertainincome-Riskreductionleadstohighervaluation25Howdoyoumanagerisk?-Eachriskhidesinarelationship-customers-investors-governmentregulation-employees-Eachrelationshipisanintangibleassetofthebusiness(AssetscanAppreciateorDepreciate).-Loweringriskforeachrelationshipenhancesthequalityofintangibleassetsandincreasesbusinessvaluation26CSR&ValuationIntangibleAssets=CSRStakeholderRelationshipsCustomersEmployeesOwners/InvestorsSuppliersCompetitionStrategiesCommunitySupport27Tangible ValuesIntangible ValuesFinancial CapitalTangible Assets(Generally Audited Financial Information)(Generally Non-audited,Non-financial Information)Intellectual propertyUnallocated goodwillLabor environmentBrand loyaltySustainabilityQuality of employeesCommunity support28GrowingImportanceofIntangibleWealthChangeinUSEmployment:Dec2007-Nov2008tangiblesector(manufacturing,construction,naturalresources,realestate,wholesaleandretail,transportationandwarehousing)-1,791,000jobsintangiblesector(education,healthcare,computersystemdesign,financeandinsurance,scientificresearch,etc.)+515,000jobsallotherservices-635,000jobs29Toimprovecompanyvaluation,ImproveCSRrelationships!GoodCSRRelationshipsLeadtoTheSustainableCorporation30HowtomeasureCSRRelationshipsUseCRTArcturusRiskAssessmentInstrumentNewmetricsforenhancedprofitability31HowtoManageforSustainableValue?CRTTheoryoftheFirmArcturus32Theory of the Moral Firm(self interest considered upon the whole)33CapitalAccountsCapitalAccountsareyourdefenseagainstriskandyourresourcebaseforcompetitiveinitiativesFinanceCapitalPhysicalCapitalHumanCapitalReputationCapitalSocialCapital34FINANCECAPITALTraditionalcapitalaccountstockofreadymoneyandamountofsunkcashinvestments35PHYSICALCAPITALTraditionalcapitalaccountPlantandequipmentToolsofthetradeSubaccountreallyoffinancialcapitalaspurchasedwithmoniesraisedinthepast36HUMANCAPITALNon-traditionalcapitalaccount-intangibleasset-vitalforsuccessinservicesandhightechbusinesses-takescareofcustomerneedsanddemands37REPUTATIONCAPITAL(brandequity;goodwill)-neededforqualityincome-neededtogetlowcostofcapitalandthebestemployees-getsyouthroughroughtimes-avoidscommoditypricing/buildsvalueadded38SOCIALCAPITALInternal:-culture-leadership-strategyExternal:-ruleoflaw/nocorruption-education-publichealth-publicgoods:marketregulation,transportation,etc.39Inter-relationshipsamongcapitalaccountsSocialCapital+ReputationCapital+HumanCapitalFinanceCapital+PhysicalCapital40Stakeholders:-Customers moral compass for capitalism-Employees moral agents,not parts for a machine-Owners and Investors fiduciary duties of loyalty and due care-Suppliers friends,not foes-Competitors compete with quality and innovation,not price-Communities enhance social capital to enhance future profitability 41StakeholdersandCapitalAccountsInternalSocialCapital=owners/employees/suppliers/competitivestrategyExternalSocialCapital=CommunityReputationCapital=customers/employees/owners/suppliers/communityHumanCapital=employees42TakingDueCareofStakeholdersEnhancesCapitalAccounts;UnderminingStakeholdersPutsCapitalAccountsatRisk43HowCanyouMeasureand,therefore,ManageStakeholderRelationshipsAndallacompanysCapitalAccounts?44ASKQUESTIONS!AssesstheQualityofyourrelationships45Category1.Fundamental Duties2.Customers3.Employees4.Owners/Investors5.Suppliers/Partners6.Competitors7.Communities1.Responsi-bilities of BusinessCriterion1.1Criterion1.2Criterion1.3Criterion1.4Criterion1.5Criterion1.6Criterion1.72.Economic and Social Impact of BusinessCriterion2.1Criterion2.2Criterion2.3Criterion2.4Criterion2.5Criterion2.6Criterion2.73.Business BehaviorCriterion3.1Criterion3.2Criterion3.3Criterion3.4Criterion3.5Criterion3.6Criterion3.74.Respect for RulesCriterion4.1Criterion4.2Criterion4.3Criterion4.4Criterion4.5Criterion4.6Criterion4.75.Support for Multi-lateral TradeCriterion5.1Criterion5.2Criterion5.3Criterion5.4Criterion5.5Criterion5.6Criterion5.76.Respect for the EnvironmentCriterion6.1Criterion6.2Criterion6.3Criterion6.4Criterion6.5Criterion6.6Criterion6.77.Avoidance of Illicit OperationsCriterion7.1Criterion7.2Criterion7.3Criterion7.4Criterion7.5Criterion7.6Criterion7.7ArcturusRiskAssessmentInstrumentCriteriaMatrix4647TheCorporateImprovementCyclePerformance ImprovementPerformance Feedback to ManagementManagement ActionCRT Assessment48WhoParticipates?Board of directors CEO Senior management Division heads and group managers Unit managers Employees49SampleGapAnalysisbetweenManagementsandEmployees(ProvidedbyCRT-Japan)A.FundamentalDutiesB.CustomersC.EmployeesD.Owners/InvestorsE.Suppliers/PartnersF.CompetitorsG.CommunityPerformancebyPrinciple1.ResponsibilitiesofBusinesses6.5/5.26.3/5.16.0/4.86.8/5.25.9/4.96.1/4.86.4/5.444.0/35.42.Economic/SocialImpactofBusiness6.0/5.35.6/4.76.7/4.54.9/4.44.9/4.46.6/4.65.1/5.239.8/33.13.BusinessBehavior6.4/5.05.8/5.05.8/4.26.2/5.05.0/4.55.5/4.65.2/4.539.9/32.84.RespectforRules5.9/5.36.8/5.96.5/5.66.5/5.76.1/5.66.2/5.66.9/5.244.9/38.95.SupportforMultilateralTrade6.9/5.26.3/5.06.5/5.26.2/5.26.0/4.86.4/4.47.2/5.045.5/34.86.RespectforEnvironment7.0/6.66.0/5.35.7/4.46.3/5.65.2/4.24.4/4.44.7/4.039.3/34.57.AvoidanceofIllicitOperations6.7/5.86.5/5.86.8/6.56.3/5.46.5/5.26.0/5.25.9/5.744.7/39.6PerformancebyStakeholder45.4/38.443.3/36.844.0/35.243.2/36.539.6/33.641.2/33.641.4/35.0298.1/249.150SampleRadarChart(ProvidebyCRT-Japan)Visionnotyetfullyembeddedacrossthecompany.Nointegratedlocalcommunitydevelopmentprogramacrossdifferentcountries.Companyinternalcommunicationispoorontheissueofenvironment.Customerstrustisweak.Communicationwithsuppliers/partnersispoor.Highlevelofcompliance,riskmanagementandinternalaudithavebeenachieved.51HowDoCompaniesCreateValue?-TheGood-TheBad-TheUgly52TheGood(MoralCapitalism)RiskAssessment/continuousRiskReductionOptimizeStakeholderBenefits53TheBad(BruteCapitalism,CronyCapitalism)FeedShareholders,AbuseStakeholdersCommoditypricing/competeonpricing/lowcostsRentseeking(marketpower)Takethemoneyandrun:shorttermismUnsustainableValuations-EventualFailure54TheUgly(Puntingonthetradingfloor)Nonetwealthcreation;speculationintrading(RobPetertopayPaul)IrrationalExuberance(Markettraders/shorttermism)FalseValuations(Enron:PonziScheme;subprimemortgages,CDOs,CDSs)Encourageunsustainablepricingofsecurities(CDOs,CDSs)INEVITABLEFINANCIALMELTDOWN55ThankYou56
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