国际卡车高峰论坛演讲

1调结构、惠民生、实现可持续开展调结构、惠民生、实现可持续开展张小虞张小虞中国机械工业联合会中国机械工业联合会 副会长副会长 中国汽车工程学会中国汽车工程学会 理事长理事长商用车市场分析与预测商用车市场分析与预测徐长明徐长明国家信息中心信息资源部国家信息中心信息资源部 主任主任高级经济师高级经济师未来之卡车未来之卡车熊福康熊福康德国大陆商用车集团中国区总裁德国大陆商用车集团中国区总裁2021年商用车市场展望年商用车市场展望贾新光贾新光 汽车行业资深分析师汽车行业资深分析师山东省汽车行业协会特聘参谋山东省汽车行业协会特聘参谋Adjust the Structure,Benefit Peoples Livelihood,Achieve the Sustainable DevelopmentMr.Xiaoyu ZhangDeputy Minister of China Machinery Industry FederationDirector of Society of Automotive Engineers of ChinaMarketing Evaluation and Forecast of Commercial VehicleMr.Changming XuDirector of Policy Research Department,Information Center of the State CouncilSenior EconomistThe Truck of the FutureMr.Franois Schoentgen CEO,China Commercial Vehicle Group,Continental Corporation Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook of 2021Mr.Xinguang JiaSenior AnalystConsultant of Shandong Automotive Manufacturers Association2调结构、惠民生、实现可持续开展Adjust the StructureBenefit Peoples LivelihoodAchieve the Sustainable Development张小虞中国机械工业联合会 副会长 中国汽车工程学会 理事长Mr.Xiaoyu ZhangDeputy Minister of China Machinery Industry FederationDirector of Society of Automotive Engineers of China3 一、商用车行业是中国汽车工业的起点和根底：1953年一汽建厂1958年南汽建厂1968年二汽建厂1984年重汽建厂1985年“七五方案提出：为满足交通运输业的开展，将汽车工业作为国民经济的支柱产业到目前为止，商用车占总产销量的25%。Commercial Vehicle Industry is the Beginning and Foundation for China Automotive Industry Faw Jiefang Automotive Company,Ltd.founded in 1953-Nanjing Automobile(Group)Corporation founded in 1958-Dongfeng Motor Corporation founded in 1968-China National Heavy Duty Truck Group CO.,LTD founded in 1984-“Seventh 5-yearplan in 1985 proposed:In order to satisfy the development of transportation industry,automotive industry as the pillar industry of the national economy until now,commercial vehicle account 25%of the total output.4二、汽车产业调整振兴规划公布的背景：二、汽车产业调整振兴规划公布的背景：1.1.国际金融危机的影响引起中央高度重视汽车工业，加快了产业调整振兴的步伐。全球汽车国际金融危机的影响引起中央高度重视汽车工业，加快了产业调整振兴的步伐。全球汽车产量从产量从0707年的年的73157315万辆跌落到万辆跌落到0808年的年的68006800万辆万辆-7%-7%，至今仍有减无增；唯有中国从，至今仍有减无增；唯有中国从888888万万辆增长到辆增长到935935万辆，增长万辆，增长5.3%5.3%，但增幅从上一年的，但增幅从上一年的22%22%回落回落1616个点。个点。0909年年1-91-9月份我国汽车产月份我国汽车产销销960960万辆，同比增长万辆，同比增长32%32%，其中商用汽车，其中商用汽车246246万辆，同比增长万辆，同比增长17.3%17.3%。1010月份，我国汽车产销月份，我国汽车产销超过千万辆，跨上历史新台阶。超过千万辆，跨上历史新台阶。Background of AdjustmentBackground of Adjustment1.Due to the international financial crisis,central committee has took 1.Due to the international financial crisis,central committee has took importance to automobile industry as well as speed up to adjust for the importance to automobile industry as well as speed up to adjust for the industry.Global automotive total outputs from 73.15 million in 2007 falls to industry.Global automotive total outputs from 73.15 million in 2007 falls to 68 million in 2021(-7%).But China has increased from 8.88 million to 9.35 68 million in 2021(-7%).But China has increased from 8.88 million to 9.35 million,an increase of 5.3%,but is less then last year.From January to million,an increase of 5.3%,but is less then last year.From January to September in 2021,Chinas automobile production and sales reach 9.6 million September in 2021,Chinas automobile production and sales reach 9.6 million(increased 32%),2.46 million is commercial vehicles(increased 17.3%).In(increased 32%),2.46 million is commercial vehicles(increased 17.3%).In October,Chinas auto attain a new height.October,Chinas auto attain a new height.52两个产业政策的延续：两个产业政策的延续：“七五方案提出支柱产业七五方案提出支柱产业94年产业政策年产业政策04年产业政策年产业政策09年调整振兴规划。年调整振兴规划。3中国汽车工业要按中央科学开展观的要求，保持持续快速增长：中国汽车工业要按中央科学开展观的要求，保持持续快速增长：经过经过7年的快速增长年平均增长年的快速增长年平均增长22%，即使没有这次国际金融危机，我国汽车工业自，即使没有这次国际金融危机，我国汽车工业自身也到了需要进行调整的时期。身也到了需要进行调整的时期。2.Extend of two industrial policy:“Seventh 5-year Plan proposal the pillar industry-Industrial policy in 1994-Industrial policy in 2004-Adjustment plan in 2021.3.Following by the concept of central scientific development,Chinas auto keeps fast and successive growth:After 7 years of rapid growth with average annual 22%,even without the international financial crisis,Chinas automotive industry also needs to be adjusted by itself.6三、调整振兴的重点和目标：三、调整振兴的重点和目标：1.市场结构：鼓励个人购置市场结构：鼓励个人购置1.6升小排量汽车，减征购置税；开拓农村市场，扩大出口。力争升小排量汽车，减征购置税；开拓农村市场，扩大出口。力争09年产量到达年产量到达1000万辆，三年保持万辆，三年保持10%的增长；出口占销量的的增长；出口占销量的10%。2.技术结构：鼓励自主创新，自主开发。自主创新和自主品牌的乘用车比重占到技术结构：鼓励自主创新，自主开发。自主创新和自主品牌的乘用车比重占到40%，轿车到，轿车到达达30%。Focuses and Objectives of the Adjustment1.Marketing Structure:encourage individual to purchase the 1.6L vehicle,purchase tax reduction;develop rural markets and expand exports.Strive to reach 10 million total output in 2021,remaining 10%growth rate in next three years;export will account 10%of sales2.Technology Structure:encourage to innovation,evolution.Proportion for passenger cars which is self-innovation and self-owned brands is 40%,and 30%for cars.73.产品结构：实施节能减排的新能源战略。形成50万辆电动车产能，新能源汽车占乘用车的5%。4.组织结构：鼓励兼并重组，促进集团化国际竞争规模。8家重点企业在全国或区域内兼并重组，形成2至3家200万辆规模企业、4至5家100万辆规模企业，前十家企业占90市场份额。3.Production Structure:energy-saving strategy take into execution.Targeting at 500,000 electric car which is 5%of passenger cars.4.Organization Structure:encourage to merger and integrate in order to promote the international competition.8四、中国商用车独有的比较优势，由大迈强的带动作用：四、中国商用车独有的比较优势，由大迈强的带动作用：Unique advantages in China Commercial Vehicle:规模优势规模优势 总体竞争力提高带动；总体竞争力提高带动；技术优势技术优势 自主创新的带动；自主创新的带动；出口的主导优势出口的主导优势 国际化开展的带动；国际化开展的带动；Scope advantage due to overall competitivenessTechnology advantage due to self-innovationLeading position in export due to international development9 五、中国商用车自主开展、自主创新的巨大潜力：五、中国商用车自主开展、自主创新的巨大潜力：The tremendous potential of independent development and independent innovation 1.以自主资本为主体的产业结构：自主资本占以自主资本为主体的产业结构：自主资本占80%；2.自主创新的潜力：节能、减排、平安、减重；自主创新的潜力：节能、减排、平安、减重；1.Industrial structure based on the independent capital:80%is independent capital 2.Potential of independent innovation:energy conservation,reduction of pollutant emissions,safety,weight reduction 10六、实现可持续开展，完成产业强国目标：六、实现可持续开展，完成产业强国目标：Implement Sustainable Development and Achieve the Objective of Industrial Power1 完成四项任务，实现中央提出的完成四项任务，实现中央提出的“五个化：五个化：自主创新，自主开发的竞争力；自主创新，自主开发的竞争力；坚实的零部件工业根底；坚实的零部件工业根底；相关产业的同步支撑；相关产业的同步支撑；效劳贸易的配套协同；效劳贸易的配套协同；工业化、信息化、市场化、城镇化、国际化。工业化、信息化、市场化、城镇化、国际化。Complete the 4 assignments and the 5 points:Competitive Strength of independent-innovation and developmentSolid industrial foundation of accessorySynchronization supports from related industryCollaboration of trade in servicesIndustrialization,informationize,marketization,urbanization,internationalization 112 2021年产业强国的目标绝不动摇：Objectives of Industrial Power in 2021满足全面建成小康社会的目标，与GDP同步增长；建成一批具有国际竞争能力的强势企业；在国际汽车贸易中占有一定比例；为建成创新型国家做出应有奉献。Achieve the affluent society with the simultaneous growth in GDPEstablish a number of internationally competitive enterprisePlay an important role in international automotive tradeContribute to the country12商用车市场分析与预测商用车市场分析与预测Marketing Evaluation and Forecast of Marketing Evaluation and Forecast of Commercial VehicleCommercial Vehicle国家信息中心信息资源部国家信息中心信息资源部 主任主任高级经济师高级经济师 徐长明徐长明 Mr.Changming XuDirector of Policy Research Department,Information Center of the State CouncilSenior Economist13一、一、一、一、20212021年商用车市场评价年商用车市场评价年商用车市场评价年商用车市场评价Marketing Evaluate in 2021Marketing Evaluate in 2021二、二、二、二、20212021年商用车市场框架分析年商用车市场框架分析年商用车市场框架分析年商用车市场框架分析Marketing Framework Analysis in 2021Marketing Framework Analysis in 202114一、一、2021年商用车市场评价年商用车市场评价 Marketing Evaluate in 2021152008年年1-9月月内需量内需量Domestic Quantity（万台（万台 ten thousand）2009年年1-9月月内需量内需量Domestic Quantity（万台（万台 ten thousand）增速增速Growth Rate（%）增量增量Increment（万台（万台 ten thousand）贡献度贡献度Contribution Rate（%）乘用车乘用车Passenger Car426.5596.639.9%170.161.5%交叉型交叉型Crossover Vehicle80.9141.875.3%60.922.0%商用车商用车Commercial Vehicle179.9225.625.4%45.716.5%合计合计TOTAL687.3964.040.3%276.7100.0%162008年年1-9月月批发量批发量Wholesale Quantity（万台（万台 ten thousand）2009年年1-9月月批发量批发量Wholesale Quantity（万台（万台 ten thousand）增速增速Growth Rate（%）增量增量Increment（万台（万台 ten thousand）贡献度贡献度Contribution Rate（%）乘用车乘用车Passenger Car425.4582.637.0%157.263.8%交叉型交叉型Crossover Vehicle82.5142.372.5%59.824.3%商用车商用车Commercial Vehicle212.6242.113.9%29.512.0%合计合计TOTAL720.596734.2%246.5100.0%171 1，1-9 1-9月商用车市场形势主要特点月商用车市场形势主要特点月商用车市场形势主要特点月商用车市场形势主要特点Prime Features of Market SituationPrime Features of Market Situation18(1)3季度市场迅猛上升，拉动前季度市场迅猛上升，拉动前3季度市场开展已经超出经济开展所应对应的水平。季度市场开展已经超出经济开展所应对应的水平。(2)Market recovered rapidly in third-quarterSales(ten thousand)Growth Rate19商用车商用车(不含微客不含微客)Commercial Vehicle(exclude mini-bus)Sales(ten thousand)Growth Rate20攀升过程还在继续攀升过程还在继续 Rising continues 商用车月度批发量商用车月度批发量(不含微客不含微客)万台万台Monthly Wholesale(exclude mini-bus)(ten thousand)21迅猛上升的原因：迅猛上升的原因：Reasons for recovering rapidly:A.经济企稳上升经济企稳上升 Economy recoveredGDP增速增速(%)Growth Rate22城镇固定资产投资年度增长率城镇固定资产投资年度增长率(%)Annual Growth Rate of Urban Fixed-asset Investment23工业增加值月度同比增长率工业增加值月度同比增长率()24B.政策刺激：汽车下乡政策的放宽政策刺激：汽车下乡政策的放宽Policy motivate:broaden of the countryside auto policy汽车下乡政策效果比照汽车下乡政策效果比照 Policy Contrast Effects 上半年上半年 First Half Year下半年下半年 Second Half Year政策松动政策松动(Policy)报废购买捆绑报废购买捆绑报废与购买分开报废与购买分开扩大范围扩大范围(Range)轻卡轻卡轻卡轻卡+微卡微卡实施城市实施城市(City)333地级市，实施地级市，实施168，能领取，能领取72 能领取的城市更多能领取的城市更多政策作用时间政策作用时间(Period)2个月个月6个月个月C.山西进行计重收费山西进行计重收费 Weight charge in ShanxiD.去年下半年基数低去年下半年基数低 Low radix second half year 25商用车分类型批发需求增长商用车分类型批发需求增长 Category-based Growth in Wholesale Demand for Commercial Vehicle 大客大客中客中客轻客轻客微客微客微卡微卡轻卡轻卡中卡中卡重卡重卡2从累计数据看，自用型车增长快，专业运输工具型车从累计数据看，自用型车增长快，专业运输工具型车(用车赚钱用车赚钱)增长慢增长慢 Self-use model is growing faster than professional transport model per the statistics26政政 策策效效 果果20092009年年3 3月月1 1日日汽车下乡（车价的汽车下乡（车价的10%）20092009年年1 1月月2020日日小排量车型购置税减半小排量车型购置税减半20092009年年1 1月月1 1日日取消养路费取消养路费20082008年年1212月月1919日日成品油价格大幅下调成品油价格大幅下调保有费用降低保有费用降低深圳保定保有费用合计保有费用合计80054312取消养路费后降幅取消养路费后降幅：15.0%30.6%使用费降低使用费降低深圳保定使用费用合计使用费用合计185537952两次油价降低后降幅两次油价降低后降幅：10.6%11.5%排量区间排量区间08年份额年份额平均车价平均车价(元元)消费者支出减少消费者支出减少=1L4.7%3711215861L-1.3L7.2%5350922871.3L-1.6L41.3%922173941降低购置费用，刺激消费降低购置费用，刺激消费自用型车高增长的原因主要是组合型汽车消费鼓励政策自用型车高增长的原因主要是组合型汽车消费鼓励政策The policy of encouraging consumption for combined vehicle leads the increase in self-use model 27专业运输型累计仍为负增长与今年的经济形势是高度相关的专业运输型累计仍为负增长与今年的经济形势是高度相关的 Professional transport model is still a negative growth which is relevant to the this years economic situation2007-2021出口总值亿美元出口总值亿美元Export Total Amount(one hundred million USD出口同比增速（）出口同比增速（）07年年3351.76.926.828.727.134.222.722.822.322.821.708年年26.76.530.621.828.117.626.921.121.519.2-2.2-2.809年年-17.5-25.7-17.1-22.6-26.4-21.4-22.9-23.1-15.228工业增加值同比增长率工业增加值同比增长率()292.后几个月及全年商用车预测后几个月及全年商用车预测Forecast for the Commercial Vehicle in 2021持续上升态势将在今后几个月得到延续，今年大局已定。持续上升态势将在今后几个月得到延续，今年大局已定。Keep increasing in the rest of the year of 2021.30车车 型型Model20082009预计预计Forecast2009年年预计增长率预计增长率Forecast Growth Rate乘用车乘用车(批发批发)Passenger Car(wholesale)56681043.1%微型客车微型客车(批发批发)Mini-bus(wholesale)106 200 88.7%商用车商用车(批发批发)Commercial Vehicle(wholesale)262 330 26.0%总计总计 Total934 134043.5%国产汽车需求预测国产汽车需求预测(万辆万辆Home-made Vehicle Demand Forecast ten thousand)31二、二、2021年商用车市场框架分析年商用车市场框架分析Marketing Framework Analysis of Commercial Vehicle in 2021 2021年商用车市场将根本保持在商用车的长期潜在增长水平，依据有三。年商用车市场将根本保持在商用车的长期潜在增长水平，依据有三。Based on 3 reasons,commercial vehicle market will remain at the level of long-term potential growth.1.长期开展规律长期开展规律 Discipline of long-term development32商用车商用车:2021年前商用车将保持年前商用车将保持9%左右的长期增长趋势，略低于左右的长期增长趋势，略低于98-08年的平均增长率年的平均增长率(10.2%)Commercial Vehicle:before 2021,the growth rate will remain at 9%,slightly lower than the average(10.2%)from 1998 to 2021Sales(ten thousand)Growth Rate332021年之前，我国仍将处于工业化和城市化同步加速的开展阶段年之前，我国仍将处于工业化和城市化同步加速的开展阶段,GDP年均增长年均增长9%左右。左右。Before 2021,Chinas industrialization and urbanization will continue at the development phase,GDP annual average growth rate around 9%.公路公路 road铁路铁路 railway机场机场 airport港口港口 port客货站场客货站场 城市根底设施城市根底设施文化设施等大规模建设文化设施等大规模建设工厂生产能力建设工厂生产能力建设投资：大规模建设投资：大规模建设 Investment消费：住房、汽车消费：住房、汽车Consumption住房和汽车这些大件商品，全面普及所需住房和汽车这些大件商品，全面普及所需的时间是很长的。的时间是很长的。housing,vehicle国际比较也说明，以建筑业和汽车工业支国际比较也说明，以建筑业和汽车工业支持的工业化中期进程，一般在几十年，至持的工业化中期进程，一般在几十年，至少少20年。年。投资规模大、产业链长、加工度高、中间产品投资规模大、产业链长、加工度高、中间产品多、增长持续时间长的特点。多、增长持续时间长的特点。工业化工业化Industrialization34城市人口占总人口的比重。以后每年提高城市人口占总人口的比重。以后每年提高1个百分点，个百分点，2021年到达年到达60%左右左右城市化城市化Urbanization35运输强度依然很高：主要是由资源分布和现阶段的经济结构决定的。运输强度依然很高：主要是由资源分布和现阶段的经济结构决定的。Intensity of traffic remains high:mainly was decided by the resources distribution and economics structure at this stage.资源分布越不均匀，运输强度越高，而我国是资源分布很不均匀的国家资源分布越不均匀，运输强度越高，而我国是资源分布很不均匀的国家 Resources has distributed non-uniformly in China36三次产业占国民经济的比重三次产业占国民经济的比重The proportion of three industries37不同运输方式运送的货物不同运输方式运送的货物Modes of Transporting卡车卡车Truck航空航空 aviation价值价值/量量 value/volume时限时限&效劳效劳 time&service公路承担的货运量公路承担的货运量 Volume of freight by road7918公路开展规划公路开展规划 road development plan铁路铁路/水路水路/管道管道railway/waterway/pipeline38国家高速公路网建设国家高速公路网建设 National Highway Network Construction公路总里程公路总里程Total Mileage高速公路高速公路Highway2004187万万3.4万万2010230万万5.5万万20167.5万万2020300万万8.5万万东部平均半小时上高速East:half an hour to the highway on average中部平均 1小时上高速Central:an hour to the highway on average西部平均 2小时上高速West:two hours to the highway on average货运中转站货运中转站Freight Station392.短期周期波动规律短期周期波动规律 Fluctuant discipline of short-term periodn商用车与商用车与GDP的变化保持高度的同步性，但波动幅度远大于的变化保持高度的同步性，但波动幅度远大于GDPCommercial vehicle is changing simultaneously with GDP,with greater fluctuation range40n中重型卡车与中重型卡车与GDP的变化保持高度的同步性，只有的变化保持高度的同步性，只有2003和和2005年两年不一致非典、治超年两年不一致非典、治超政策突变，但波动幅度更大于政策突变，但波动幅度更大于GDPnMedia to heavy-duty truck changing simultaneously with GDP,besides 2003(SARS)and 2005(policy),the fluctuation rate is more greater than GDP41n不管是商用车总体还是中重型卡车，其市场变化与不管是商用车总体还是中重型卡车，其市场变化与GDP的关系更为密切，因此，用的关系更为密切，因此，用GDP的变化来预测商用车和中重卡的形势更为可靠。投资的变化对局部细分车型的的变化来预测商用车和中重卡的形势更为可靠。投资的变化对局部细分车型的作用更大，主要是工程车。作用更大，主要是工程车。n从短期周期波动规律角度来看，只要从短期周期波动规律角度来看，只要2021年宏观经济能够保持平稳运行状态，商用年宏观经济能够保持平稳运行状态，商用车市场就能平稳运行。车市场就能平稳运行。nChanging in GDP can be used as a sign for predicting the industrial market state since the it is high related to change in GDP.nFrom the point of fluctuant discipline of short-term period,as long as the macro-economics remains the stability,the market of commercial vehicle can well proceed.周期规律结论：周期规律结论：Conclusion:423.市场自然增长力量正在变强市场自然增长力量正在变强 Marketing accrual power is growing商用车月度批发量万台商用车月度批发量万台Commercial Vehicle Monthly Wholesale(ten thousand)同同 比比 增增 速速07年年 48.1%0.2%19.0%28.5%29.5%33.4%36.7%26.8%18.2%17.4%15.3%5.3%08年年 20.0%28.7%27.1%20.9%20.3%15.6%-3.4%-6.6%-6.2%-9.3%-25.6%-23.0%09年年-36.6%26.1%-5.2%1.4%7.3%8.3%42.4%57.7%59.4%43PolicyPolicy+Marketing accrual power商用车月度批发量万台商用车月度批发量万台Commercial Vehicle Monthly Wholesale(ten thousand)44货车货车分类型月度批发量同比增速分类型月度批发量同比增速Truck:Category-based Growth Rate of Monthly Wholesale45客车客车分类型月度批发量同比增速分类型月度批发量同比增速Bus:Category-based Growth Rate of Monthly Wholesale46牵引车牵引车月月度度批发量同比增速批发量同比增速Truck Tractor:Growth Rate of Monthly Wholesale47城镇固定资产投资城镇固定资产投资月度同比增速月度同比增速Monthly Growth Rate of Urban Investment in Fixed-asset港口吞吐量港口吞吐量月度同比增速月度同比增速Turnover Capacity of the Harbor48发电量发电量月度同比增速月度同比增速 Generated Energy原煤消耗量原煤消耗量月度同比增速月度同比增速Coal Consumption钢材消耗量钢材消耗量月度同比增速月度同比增速Steel Consumption水泥消耗量水泥消耗量月度同比增速月度同比增速Cement Consumption49只要只要2021年宏观经济能够保持年宏观经济能够保持8-9%的增长，乘用车市场就能保持其潜在增长率。的增长，乘用车市场就能保持其潜在增长率。根据国家信息中心预测，根据国家信息中心预测，2021年年GDP增长率为增长率为8.5%，与，与2021年根本持平。年根本持平。The growth rate of passenger car basically stable at 8.5%which is the same as GDP increase rate as long as macro-economic rising with 8%-9%.有利因素有利因素：出口负增长不存在了：出口负增长不存在了 Advantage:no more negative growth in export不利因素不利因素：财政政策和货币政策力度减弱：财政政策和货币政策力度减弱Disadvantage:Fiscal policy and monetary policy have less effects50 熊福康德国大陆商用车集团中国区总裁Franois Schoentgen&Huang Tien PeiChina Commerical Vehicle GroupContinental CorporationThe Truck Of the FutureConcrete Progresses for Chinese OEs and their Customers with the Enhancement of -Vehicle Life-Time Costs -Vehicle Safety -Driver Productivity -Connectivity未来之卡车未来之卡车中国主机厂及其客户的实际开展，增中国主机厂及其客户的实际开展，增强了强了 车辆使用寿命车辆使用寿命-时间本钱时间本钱 车辆平安性车辆平安性 驱动器的生产能力驱动器的生产能力 连通性连通性51Commercial Vehicles Market we understand trends and impact商用汽车市场商用汽车市场 我们对其趋势和影响了如指掌我们对其趋势和影响了如指掌Safety 平安Environment 环境Efficiency 效率Affordability 承受能力Comfort 舒适性Increasing intelligence of commercial vehicles商用车的智能化持续增强商用车的智能化持续增强New functionality 新功能新功能New systems 新系统新系统Increased networking 联网性增强联网性增强Increasing connectivity to and from commercial vehicles 与商用车的连通性日益增强与商用车的连通性日益增强Increasing complexity of vehicles车辆复杂性增大车辆复杂性增大Increasing cost pressure on OEMs and their suppliers 主机厂及其供给商的压力增大主机厂及其供给商的压力增大Increasing reliability of commercial vehicles商用车的可靠性日益增强商用车的可靠性日益增强Need for global architectures 总体构造的需要总体构造的需要Megatrends 大趋势大趋势Impact 影响影响(on OEMs 主机厂层面主机厂层面)Market市场市场Legislation立法立法52Lane Departure Warning车道偏离警告车道偏离警告Tachograph转速图表转速图表 Forward Radar Sensor前进雷达传感器前进雷达传感器Blind Spot Detection盲点探测盲点探测 Chassis Leveling Control地盘水平调节地盘水平调节Air Pressure Control Unit气压控制器气压控制器 Trend and Highlights for Safety 平安性趋势与本质平安性趋势与本质 How do we address these topics?我们怎样说明这些主题？我们怎样说明这些主题？Portfolio covers key control unit and sensors which help to reduce accidents产品目录包括主控制器和传感器，有助于降低事故的发生Continental can support our customers with the fusions of sensor data.大陆集团可为客户提供传感器信息支持The tachograph services offering also helps fleet owners to optimize the performance of their drivers速度记录器可协助驾驶员使驱动器的性能到达最优化53Vehicle Control Unit电动车控制器电动车控制器Engine Management发动机管理发动机管理Selective Catalytic Reductioin选择性催化复原选择性催化复原eHorizon电子地平线电子地平线 Hybrid Electric Vehicle混合电动车混合电动车 NOX SensorNOX传感器传感器 Trend and Highlights for Environment 环境环境趋势与本质趋势与本质 How do we address these topics?我们怎样说明这些主题？我们怎样说明这些主题？Portfolio covers key control unit which help to optimize emissions产品目录包括主控制器，可以保证优化排放物Supported by portfolio of further sensors e.g.speed,pressure and level sensors由更多传感器的产品支持，如速度、压力和水平传感器Continental is active in innovation key fields like HCCI,turbo charger speed sensor and flex fuel sensors大陆集团活泼于改革主要领域，如HCCI、涡轮增压机、速度传感器以及柔性燃料传感器 54Vehicle Control Unit车辆控制器车辆控制器Telematics Unit远程信息处理单元远程信息处理单元Commercial Vehicle Tires商用车轮胎商用车轮胎Transmission Control Unit传动控制器传动控制器 Tire Pressure Monitoring轮胎气压监测轮胎气压监测eHorizon电子地平线电子地平线Trend and Highlights for Efficiency 效率效率趋势与本质趋势与本质How do we address these topics?我们怎样说明这些主题？我们怎样说明这些主题？Portfolio covers the multiple facets of cost of ownership reduction from connectivity through driving strategy to predictive driving产品目录包括驱动策略到预期策略的连通性所有权复原本钱的多个方面A variety of system solutions are available系统方法多样性可用Integration of components in the future will enable further functionality improvements and aid the management of complexity 将来零件整合可以改进功能性，帮助复杂性管理 55Level Control水平控制水平控制Pico ClusterPico群集器群集器LED FlasherLED闪光灯闪光灯Vehicle Data Recorder汽车行驶记录仪汽车行驶记录仪Body Controller车身控制器车身控制器Telematics Unit远程信息处理单元远程信息处理单元Trend and Highlights for Affordability 可承受能力可承受能力趋势与本质趋势与本质 How do we address these topics?我们怎样说明这些主题？我们怎样说明这些主题？Continental understands the system architecture and system requirements for emerging markets.Products have been derived from these requirements 大陆集团了解新兴市场的建筑和系统要求，产品应符合这些要求Flexible platform solutions with local application programming柔性平台解决方案，可以局部应用编程Portfolio will be extended going forward产品目录将向前延伸56Radio/Navigation无线电无线电/导航导航Air Springs for Chassis底盘空气弹簧底盘空气弹簧Dashboard Materials仪表板材料仪表板材料Vibration Control振动控制振动控制Air Springs for Seats驾驶座空气弹簧驾驶座空气弹簧Trend and Highlights for Comfort 舒适性舒适性趋势与本质趋势与本质 How do we address these topics?我们怎样说明这些主题？我们怎样说明这些主题？ContiTech is a market leader for air springs for chassis,cabin and seat application.Standard and custom solutions are available 康迪泰克是底盘、驾驶室和驾驶座应用空气弹簧的市场领军这，可用标准和常规解决方案State of the art radio/navigation can help to reduce fatigue高端电台/导航状态可以帮助减轻疲劳High quality hoses ensure optimum reliability of hydraulic and pneumatic systems高质量软管保证水压和气压系统的最正确可靠性Hoses软管软管572021年商用车市场展望年商用车市场展望Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook in 2021贾新光贾新光汽车行业资深分析师汽车行业资深分析师山东省汽车行业协会特聘参谋山东省汽车行业协会特聘参谋Xinguang JiaSenior AnalystConsultant of Shandong Automotive Manufacturers Association582021年商用年商用车市市场销量量统计Statistics of Commercial Vehicle Sales in 2021产量量Output%销售售Sales商用商用车总计Commercial Vehicle26073564.2426248935.25货车总计Truck16300387.0616405608.19客客车总计Bus and Coach2517334.012528372.16半挂半挂牵引引车总计Semi-trai