宏观经济数据物价

Measuring the Cost of Living Measuring the Cost of Living refers to a situation in which the economys overall price level is rising.物价总水平的持续上升就是通胀。 The is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period. THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX物价总水平就是经济中所有产品和服务价格的变化。经济学家根据消费者支出的定期调查，挑选一组产品和服务的组合，称之为“一篮子产品和服务”。然后把这样相同的一篮子产品和服务的每一年支出和某个基年支出进行比较，支出的变动就是物价总水平的变动。这个就是价格指数方法。最常用的就是消费物价指数CPI。The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX中国的价格指数参见中国统计年鉴2008，表8-1到8-4。年份CPI(1978=100)城市CPI(1978=100)农村CPI(1985=100)商品零售价格指数（1978=100）PPI（1985=100）1978 100.0 100.0 - 100 - 1985 131.1 134.2 100 128.1 1001990 216.4 222.0 165.1 207.7 159.01995 396.9 429.6 291.4 356.1 307.12000 434.0 476.6 314.0 354.4 303.12005 464.0 503.1 343.0 359.3 333.22007 493.6 533.6 366.9 376.7 353.8 How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Fix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer. Find the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time Compute the Baskets Cost: Use the data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times. Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living比如，2006年消费者调查显示，平均每人消费2件衣服和200斤大米。衣服均价是每件200元；大米均价是每斤1.5元。2007年衣服220元/件；大米1.8元/件。2006年是基年，为100。那么2007年的价格指数就是： （衣服现价衣服基期数量+大米现价大米基期数量）/ （衣服基价衣服基期数量+大米基价大米基期数量）100=（2202+1.8200）/（2002+1.5200） 100=114.3 How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Compute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index from the preceding period. The Inflation Rate The inflation rate is calculated as follows:如上例：2007年的通胀率=（114.3-100）/100100=14.3%Inflation Rate in Year 2=CPI in Year 2-CPI in Year 1CPI in Year 1 100 Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living Substitution bias Introduction of new goods Unmeasured quality changes The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:含义：名义GDP相当于物品和劳务的现期价格现期数量；实际GDP相当于基期价格现期数量。GDP deflator= Nominal GDPReal GDP 100 The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index国家统计局还采用其他的统计口径计算物价指数，比如PPI（工业品出厂价格指数）The producer price index, which measures the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by firms rather than consumers.以及商品零售价格指数等。 The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index GDP平减和CPI的区别： The GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods and services produced domestically, whereas. the consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers. The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index The consumer price index compares the price of a fixed basket of goods and services to the price of the basket in the base year. whereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year.注：用固定篮子计算的价格指数为拉氏指数（Laspeyres index），如CPI；而按照可变篮子计算的为帕氏指数(Paasche index)，如GDP平减。 Figure 2 美国的Two Measures of Inflation 1965 Percentper Year15 CPIGDP deflator105 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 20001995Copyright2004 South-Western 1997年以来的GDP平减指数和居民消费价格指数 Indexation用通货膨胀可以对宏观经济变量进行指数化，从而获得实际值。比如名义GDP、工资、收入、利率等等；和实际GDP、工资、收入、利率等等。指数化政策