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1 TWO DAY PROGRAMME ON LEAN not the person No complaining unless accompanied with solution and action plan No blaming Ground Rules 26 “Quality . . . is the next opportunity for our Company to set itself apart from its competitors . . . . Dramatically improved Quality will increase employee and customer satisfaction, will improve share and profitability, and will enhance our reputation. . “Six Sigma is the most important training thing we have ever had. Its better than going to Harvard Business School.” J.F. Welch Leadership Vision 27 A Process Is A Collection Of Activities That Takes One Or More Kinds Of Input And Creates Output That Is Of Value To The Customer Definition of a process 28 6 #2: When convinced of the value of thinking in terms of processes, most people still dont think in terms of processes #3:The word “process” generates fear and resistance. Processes All activity takes place in terms of a process. The quality of the process determines the quality of the output. Shocking lessons #1: Most people do not think in terms of processes. They would rather think terms of isolated events. 29 Black Belt Projects Supplier Quality “Voice Of The Shareholder” (Profitability Analysis) “Voice Of The Customer” (Surveys) Stakeholder Requirements Customer Requirements Prioritization Core Processes And Output Measures Internal Processes And Output Measures Key Subprocesses And Input Measures Other Stakeholders Employees Lenders Regulators Strategic Focus 30 Pick-Up to hedge against demand surges and variation of production level; to take advantage of favorable prices; to ensure against error and loss; and to avoid production stoppage. Overproduction for any of these reasons can, on the other hand, increase costs through high investment and low capital turnover, material obsolescence, spoilage an deterioration, storage and handling excesses, and inefficient use of space due to overcrowding. 100 Two basic concepts of control models need to be cognized: Transaction reporting periodic review. TRANSACTION REPORTING: Transaction reporting requires continuous, accurate updating of stock records to determine when a replenishment order should be initiated. Frequent stock activity, high volume requirements, and identifiable individual units may make this type of system more desirable. This system may entail perpetual (or continuous) record processing: e.g., reporting the use of each item and continuous monitoring of stock levels. When a predetermined reorder point is reached, an economic order quantity acquisition is initiated. This reorder point is set to ensure that sufficient stock is available to carry the production process until the replenishment supply is received. 101 A second concept is that records will be reviewed periodically (weekly, monthly, quarterly, etc.) and if the level of inventory for that ; item has fallen below a certain target level, anew ) order will be placed. If it has not, the record will be , returned to the file for review again at the end of the next period. Target levels, period lengths, and e replenishment quantities are dependent on frequency of use, replenishment lead time, and criticality of item. This system is usually more difficult to establish but results in lower clerical cost to maintain stock control. Both transaction reporting and periodic review systems can be maintained manually or by computer, if the inventory system is of sufficient size to warrant computer control. EXAMPLE: A manufacturer uses wooden pallets for unit load shipping of the product. These pallets are used regularly at rate of 100 per month and purchased from a vendor Rs. 3.50 per pallet. They are stored in an unheated but covered shed until needed, 19 and it is estimated that it costs 20 percent of the unit value to pay for the investment and storage costs. PERIODIC REVIEW: 102 A fixed cost of 150 in clerical time and processing is incurred every time a replenishment order is processed. If pallets are available when needed, re -handling of the unit load of final product is necessary at a cost of Rs10 per unit. Delivery normally takes from 6 to 10 days from the time of order, and 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 days are equally likely. To determine the EOQ, the following is considered: If C = replenishment cost S = storage cost I = number of inventory turnovers per year T = total cost per year for storage and replenishment R = rate of demand Q = order quantity (EOQ) 103 then Q can be calculated to be the order quantity which results in the lowest cost T Q = (2CR/S) = (2(50) (100)/ (0.2)(3.50)= 120 Pallets/ Order. I = ( R ) (Number of Months)/ Q = (100)(12)/ 120 = 10 Turnovers/ Year In this example, a transaction system is to be used, and a reorder point needs to be determined which will provide protection during the reorder period of 6 to 10 days. Since it is equally likely that delivery can be at any time between 6 and 10 days, inclusive, the reorder point will be selected at the point that gives a cost balance between overstocking during the lead time and under stocking. Each time period of days from 6 to 10 has 1 chance in 5 of occurring in the replenishment cycle. By weighting the chances of various delivery possibilities by the cost of overstocking versus under- stocking, a weighted average of delivery days can be computed which establishes a basis of the reorder points. 104 In this example it may be computed as follows: Number of items demanded per day = 100/20* = 5 . *20 days assumes a 5-day workweek Average cost of overstocking = (5)( 3.50)(1/5)(x- 5) where x = delivery period between 6 to 10 days Average cost of under stocking =(10 X 1/5)10-(x -5) Solving for x as the point where the weighted-average overstocking cost equals the weighted-average under stocking cost: (5)(3.50)(1/5)(x- 5) = (10)(1/5)(10 -x) 3.5x- 17.5 = 20 -2x 5.5x = 37.5 x= 6.8 105 The weighted-average delivery period for the purpose of planning the reorder point is 6.8 days. Reorder point = (100/20)(6.8) = 34.0 In summary, place an order for pallets when the pal- let inventory drops to 34. Thus, you will provide an economical stock system for pallets as long as the costs and d factors or the delivery time factors do not change. 106 Pay back time 107 PAYBACK TIME Payback Time is a rough and ready model that is looked upon disdain by many academic theorists . Payback sometimes called payout or payoff. Yet pay back is most widely used decision model, and it certainly is an improvement over the criterion of urgency or postponability. Further more, it is a handy device a. Where precision in estimates of profitability is not crucial and preliminary screening of a rash of proposals is necessary b. Where a weak cash and credit position has a heavy bearing on the selection of investment possibilities and c. Where the contemplated project is extremely risky. 108 The Payback Calculations follows: P=I/O Where P= Payback Time, I= Initial increment amount invested and O= The uniform annual incremental each inflow from operations. Essentially, payback is a measure of the time, it will take to recoup in the form of cash from operations only the original amount invested. Given the useful life of an assets and uniform cash flows, the less payout period , the greater the profitability or given payback period, the greater useful life of the asset, the greater the profitability. Note that, payback does not measure profitability, it does measure how quickly investment amount may be recouped. An investments main objective is profitability, not recapturing the original outlay. If a company wants to recover its investment outlay rapidly it need not bother spending in the first place. Then payback time is ZERO; NO WAITING TIME is needed. 109 The Major weakness of the payback model is its neglect the profitability. Continuous Technological up gradation is required to be in the competition. The profit earned is ploughed back, with additional investment in order to enhance the growth of the organization Such options involves various alternatives and working for return on investment. Firstly the technical feasibility is examined reliably predication is a valuable activity to design reliable systems. Failure have to be identified and proacted System need to be designed that is robust 110 Design Review: 1. Determine if the product will actually work as desired and meet the customers requirements 2. Determine if the new design is producible and inspectable 3. Determine if the new design is maintainable and repairable Financial Feasibility: Net income Margin on Sales = Sales 111 RETURN ON INVESTMENT (ROI): The return on investment is measured by adding back interest to net income after taxes and dividing by total assets. It is a measure of the after tax profitability with which the firms total resources have been employed. Return on investment = Net income + interest Total Sales =192,000 + 40,000 2,000,000 ROI=I= S-P P Where P= The amount borrowed (or the amount invested ) S= The amount paid back (or the amount collected) at the end of the year 112 RATE OF RETURN: For example, assume the following situation. Invest Rs.10,000 in a laborsaving machine. Labor savings = Rs 2500 per year. Useful life = 10 years. Company desires 10 percent return on investment. Machine will be depreciated for tax purposes over 10 years on a straight-line basis. Company has 50 percent tax rate. Machine will have no salvage value. Annual Cash-Flow Computations: Compute the annual cash flow as follows (in this example, the savings are the same each year): Cash in from labor savings .Rs. 2500 Cash out for taxes Rs. 750* Annual Net cash inflow.Rs.1750 * Income subject to tax = Rs2500- Rs.1000 depreciations = Rs.1500 at 50% = Rs750 113 RATE-OF-RETURN CALCULATIONS: The investment outlay is Rs.10,000. The annual cash savings is Rs.1750. A 10 percent return is desired. Look at Table B-4. Under the 10 percent column, read down to 10 years. The factor is 6.44. Multiply 6.44 by the annual savings of Rs.1750. The result is Rs.11,270. This means that the present value of the future cash inflows of Rs.1750 per year is worth Rs.11,270 today if a 10 percent return on investment is desired. Since the investment is only Rs.10,000 and the present value of future inflows is Rs.11,270, the investment would be made. If the actual return is desired, divide the investment by the annual savings, Rs.10,000/Rs1750 = 5.71, Again, look at Table B.4 and read across from year 10. The factor 5.71 is between 12 % and 14 % or about 13% return on investment. 114 COMPLEXITIES: Variable Annual Savings: The cash savings generated from a capital project are seldom the same for each year of the life of the project. The savings may be different because of the use of accelerated depreciation, varying production levels, changes in tax rates, and other related items. The discounted cash-flow concept can be used with varying annual savings in two ways, as illustrated in the following example company has the opportunity to invest Rs.1000 in e of four alternative projects. Each project has an estimated life of 6 years and a total return of Rs.1800. The flow of the savings is as shown in this array. Rs Rs Rs Rs Rs Rs Rs Rs 115 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 30% 20% 10% 0 30% 20% 10% 0 Rate of return Reciprocal pf Payback Period RECIPROCAL OF PAYBACK PERIOD COMPARED WITH RATE OF RETURN 116 INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN: One approach is to calculate the rate of return on each project. The internal rate of return is the rate which is being earned on the unamortized balance of the investment, such as the rate on a home mortgage. Using Table B-4, the calculation is made using a trial-and-error approach. What rate will bring the future cash flow back to Rs.1000 today? The rates are, Project A: 25 + percent Project : 30 + percent Project C: 16 percent Project D: 25 percent 117 NET PRESENT VALUE: The net present value of an investment is the difference between future cash inflows discounted at a specified rate and the amount of the original investment. If a desired rate of return is known, the present value of the future flow can be determined. Assume the company wants a 20 percent return on investment. The present-value factors for 20 percent for each year are given in Table B-2. Applying these factors to the flows for the four projects, a present value for each project is as follows: Project investment Present Value Net Present 20% A Rs.1000 Rs. 1092 Rs. 92 B 1000 1188 188 C 1000 996 - 4 D 1000 1142 142 Refer the table B-2 118 Using the net-present-value (NPV) approach, we see that project B has the highest net present value. Projects A, B, and D all have positive net present values, which mean that these projects all return more than 20 percent. Project B has the highest NPV, which makes it the most attractive alternative. Project C, with a negative NPV, returns slightly less than 20 percent. How would you rank projects if the original outlay is different? The one with the highest investment is likely to have the highest absolute Rupee NPV but may have a smaller return. Projects of this nature can be ranked by the use of a profitability index. 119 PROFITABILITY INDEX: Project A has the lowest Rupee NPV. It also has the lowest investment outlay. The index shows, how- ever, that it has the highest return; i.e., the Rupee received discounted at 20 percent are higher relative to the investment than the Rupee received in either project B or project C. Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs. 120 TABLE : B-1 PRESENT VALUE OF RS.1 RECEIVED AT END OF THE YEAR INDICATED Present Value =1/(1+i)n 121 TABLE : B-2 PRESENT VALUE OF RS.1 RECEIVED AT MIDDLE OF THE YEAR INDICATED Present Value =1/(1+i)n-1/2 122 TABLE : B-3 PRESENT VALUE OF RS.1 RECEIVED AT END OF EACH YEAR FOR N YEARS 123 TABLE : B-4 PRESENT VALUE OF RS.1 RECEIVED AT MIDDLE OF EACH YEAR FOR N YEARS 124 Emulating the bench mark of Koba Yashi Mitsubishi Success Model 125 The Keys Small group activity a. One suggestion per month per person. b. Short standing meetings to stress efficiency. Cleaning and Organizing KEY: 1 Measured Management Objectives ( Safety, Horizontal Hierarchy, Clear Instruction from TOP) KEY: 2 KEY: 3 126 127 Reducing Inventory. (Work - in - Progress) a. All activity that dont add value to product are wasteful. KEY: 4 128 129 QUICK CHANGEOVER TECHNOLOGY a. Any one should be able to perform a quick changeover ever in new environments. b. Accept the change to shorten all changeovers to less than one cycle time. KEY: 5 130 131 Value Analysis of Manufacturing Methods (Improvement in Methods) a. Ask “WHY” five times for every motion of activity. b. Modular a management of predetermined Time standards (i) Material Handling Method KEY: 6 132 133 Zero Monitor Production a. Monitoring is a form of Waste b. Watching the running machine? KEY: 7 134 135 Integrating Functions a. Reduce the inventory at the joining points. b. Reduce the “Joints” and make seamless. c. Planned Maintenance activity. KEY: 8 136 137 Maintaining Machines and Equipment a. Prepare Preventive maintenance group b. Full employee involvement in study groups KEY: 9 138 139 140 KEY: 10 WORK FLOOR TIME POLICES Encourage the workers to do the next days preparation before they go home at night. 141 142 KEY: 11 QUALITY ASSURANCE SYSTEM Next process is customer. No bad product to the next process. Workers perform inspection on their own product. 143 We must build quality in the processes themselves! Ill inspect what I make 144 POKA YOKA 145 KEY: 12 DEVELOPING YOUR SUPPLIERS Treat external as internal division. Technical Support. 146 KEY: 13 ELIMINATING WASTE WITH A “ TREASURE MOUNTAIN MAP” Only do those actions customer will pay. 147 148 KEY: 14 EMPOWER WORKER TO MAKE IMPROVEMENTS Expand processing capability in the improvement corner. Building through Low-cost Automation Devices. 149 150 KEY: 15 SKILL VERSATALITY AND CROSS TRAINING 151 152 KEY: 16 PRODUCTION SCHEDULING 153 154 KEY: 17 EFFICIENCY CONTROL Decide on standard times for each process. Compare the standard times to actual times. 155 156 KEY: 18 USING MICROPROCESSORS Mechatronics. Learnt about sensors and how they are used. 157 158 KEY: 19 CONSERVING ENERGY AND MATERIALS Quantify the importance of conservation by showing energy and material costs as a percentage of total costs. 159 160 KEY: 20 LEADING TECHNOLOGY - SITE TECHNOLOGY There is no interest in the progress of the other players in the industry. People in the factory are content with the current site technology. The factory is about on par with the rest of the industry. 161 Taiichi Ohnos original enumeration of the seven wastes plus underutilized people. These are: Eight wastes 1. Overproduction: Making more, earlier, or faster than the next operation needs it. 2. Waiting for the next process, worker, material, information, or equipment. 3. Transportation: unnecessary transport of materials. 4. Overprocessings of anything that does not add value. 5. Inventories more than the absolute minimum required to meet customer demand. 6. Motion: unnecessary movement (like waiting) of people. 7. Production of defective parts or information. 8. Not fully utilizing employees brain power, skills, experience, talents and creativity. 162 Value stream mapping 163 Value stream mapping from rfq to delivery 1. Determine the process family. 2. Draw the current state map 3. Create a future state map 4. Develop the action plan to get to the improved future state. 164 Four steps to Value stream mapping Step 1: product development Identify customer requirements, Define method of delivery, and Define typical quantity requirements. This value stream can serve more than one customer, but be sure to use similar primary processes. Use a pencil rather than a computer. 165 Step 2: process design Cycle time (Operator and Machine cycle time) Changeover times, Average inventory queue, Average production batch size, Number of operations at each process, Package or container size, Available time (take out break and lunch times), Scrap rate, Machine up-time (availability), and Number of product variations. Perform an upstream walk-through for each process step, observing and documenting as much of the following as possible. 166 Step 3: preparation Record as much information as is pertinent in the process description box. Step 4: planning Develop a future state map, Dream about perfection (Imagineering), Think outside the box, Develop alternatives to the current state map that are muda free, and Focus on velocity. 167 1% error Adds Directly to The Bottom Line 168 This business was very focused on its core processing activity, but less focused on the support functions. One of these support functions was the off-line handling and managing of its molds, which were quite fragile and breakable. This was considered to be a less important activity than production and, as long as the molds were ready for production as required, Plant Management largely ignored this activity. Also, the budget for this section was relatively small; in anyone year they would spend about $200,000 on the replacement of molds that were broken off line. As this was only about 1% of costs, the activity was never previously targeted in typical cost reduction programs. 1 % error Adds Directly to The Bottom Line 169 As part of an operational review, this organization investigated its 1 %errors and this previously ignored cost. A comparison with similar plants showed that it was possible to operate with almost zero breakages and that
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