《东莞学英语》word版.doc

中国经济需要新一轮的改革来注入活力，并且使其经济增长势头持续下去。Chinas declining economic growth rate has been discussed at different forums at length. Some scholars argue that China has exhausted all its advantages in demographic dividend, globalization and reform, and therefore the decline is unavoidable. There is nearly a consensus that Chinas economy will slow down, and the debate is mainly on the actual rate of growth.不同的论坛都已详细地对中国衰退的经济增速进行了讨论。一些学者认为中国已经用光了它在人口红利、全球化和改革上的全部优势，因此衰退是不可避免的。目前，在中国经济将要减速这个结论上已经基本形成了共识，讨论主要集中在真实的增长率上。We should respect the economics cycle and not harbor the illusion of registering further double-digit growth. Our research shows that the fast-growing economies, with the sole exception of Taiwan, registered a drop in their growth rates in the fourth decade of their economic development.我们应该尊重经济周期并且放弃获得更多两位数字增长的幻想。我们的研究显示，快速增长的经济体，台湾除外，在他们经济发展的第四个十年会遇到增长率的下跌。But at the same time, we should not be pessimistic about slower growth. Chinas economic growth is not destined to drop. A relatively strong growth for another decade or even longer can be realized if China can push forward its reform and innovation plan, build up human resources and participate in global governance.但是同时，对于较慢的增长速度我们不应该悲观。中国的经济增速不是注定要下降的。如果中国能够坚持推行革新计划、增强人力资源、参与全球管理，那么在另一个十年乃至更长时间内，中国的经济增速将可以实现相对较强的增长。Some economists have forecast that Chinas demographic dividend, which means a high percentage of working-age population, will end in 2015. The sixth population census shows that Chinas population growth is much slower than what the policymakers had expected, and the drop in the number of children and increase in the number of senior citizens have been beyond expectations too.一些经济学家预测，意味着劳动年龄人口比重高的中国人口红利时期，将会在2015年终结。第六次人口普查显示中国的人口增速已经远远慢于决策者的预期，同时儿童数量的减少幅度和老年公民数目的增加幅度也超过了预期。Australian economists Rodney Tyers and Jane Golley, however, say, Chinas demographic dividend can last until 2030 if the actual working population, instead of the working-age population, is calculated. The number of workers will increase by including workers from the traditionally non-working age group. For example, extending the retirement age can turn non-working-age people into workers.但是，澳大利亚经济学者罗德尼-泰尔和简-罗拉认为，如果把实际的劳动人口，而不单单是劳动年龄人口，算进去的话，中国的人口红利时期可以持续到2030年。通过把传统非劳动年龄组别的工人算到工人里这一手段，工人的数量将会得到增长。例如，延缓退休年龄就能够把非劳动年龄人口变成工人。Besides, thanks to the development in Chinas education sector the number of skilled, well-educated workers is increasing. This will offset the negative impact of the declining working-age population and prepare China for a knowledge-based economy.此外，由于中国教育部门的发展，受到良好教育的熟练技工的数量也在增长。这将抵消劳动年龄人口下降所带来的负面影响，并且为中国步入知识型经济做好了准备。It is true that China is losing its traditional advantage of exporting products at low costs. For three decades, Chinas economy relied heavily on exports to the United States and European countries by taking advantage of its cheap labor. But with the return of protectionism to the world stage after the global financial crisis, China may lose the benefits it has gained from globalization.中国正在失去出口低成本产品的传统优势，这是不争的事实。三十年以来，中国经济严重依赖于利用其廉价劳动力而实现的对美国和欧洲国家的出口。但是随着在全球金融危机后世界范围上贸易保护主义的回归，中国也许会失去其从全球化中所得到的好处。China, nonetheless, can gain new benefits by helping devise the rules of globalization, mainly in the areas of financial regulation, international monetary policy reform, developmental issues, security and energy.尽管如此，中国在金融监管、国际货币政策改革、发展议题、安全与能源等领域，仍能通过协助设计全球化的规则而得到新的利益。On one hand, changes after the global financial crisis require constant renewal of global rules, which offers China an opportunity to take part in global governance. On the other, a change in the power balance between developed and developing countries has put China in a better position to have a greater say in international issues.一方面，全球金融危机后的变化要求全球规则的持续更新，这给中国提供一个参与全球管理的机会。另一方面，发达国家和发展中国家权重的变化，将中国推上一个更好的位置，在国际议题中有了更大的发言权。A reform in the international monetary policy and internationalization of the yuan will not only reduce the loss of Chinas foreign reserves, but also place the country in a better position for global financial competition. China should try to play its due role in the price-setting mechanism of international bulk commodities and gain an upper hand in international negotiations.国际货币政策和人民币国际化的改革不仅会减少中国外汇储备的损失，也会使得国家在全球金融竞争中处于一个更有利的位置。中国应该尝试在国际大宗商品的定价机制中发挥它应有的作用，并且在国际谈判中占据主动。It should also take part in stipulating the rules related to climate change, including reducing energy use and carbon emissions, building low-carbon economies and carbon trade, which will influence future industrial development and the share of responsibilities and costs among different countries.中国也应参与到制定和气候变化相关的规则当中去，其中包括节能减排、建立低碳经济和碳贸易等方面，这将对未来工业发展和与不同国家进行责任和成本的分担产生影响。A new round of reform is crucial to Chinas economic growth. Chinas reform has been propelling growth for more than three decades, but its benefits are dwindling, and will continue to do so until we initiate a new round of reform.新一轮的改革对中国经济增长是至关重要的。中国的改革已经驱使其经济实现了超过30年的增长，但是它所带来的好处也在减少，并且将会持续减少下去直到我们发起新一轮的改革。The fundamental issue of reform is the relationship between the government and the market. We should press ahead with both market reform and government reform. Market reform includes reform in the land use system, marketization of the interest rate and development of the capital market. The government, on its part, should reform the hukou (house registration) system, and create an equity system for urban and rural workers.改革的根本问题在于政府和市场之间的关系。我们应该继续推进在市场和政府两方面同时进行的改革。市场改革包括土地使用制度、利率市场化和资本市场发展的改革。在政府改革方面，应该改革户口制度，并且建立一个对城乡劳动者来说平等的体制。The government should also draw a clear line for its responsibilities and functions. It should increase investment in social development and human resources, ensure social justice and fairness, provide public goods and services, and see to it that low-income people have equal access to these goods and services.政府应该明晰它的职责和功能。增加对社会开发和人力资源的投入、确保社会正义和公平、提供公共物品和服务，并注意使低收入人群有同等的机会使用这些物品和服务。Also, it should reduce its intervention in microeconomic activities, make the market more accessible to private players, break its monopoly in certain sectors, simplify the administrative approval system and improve economic efficiency.同时也应减少对微观经济活动的妨碍，使私营企业更易接近市场，打破在某一部分的垄断，简化行政审批制度，提高经济效率。Chinas reform has reached a crucial stage where different interests are entangled with each other. The leadership has to show wisdom, determination and courage to push forward the reform, for only if the reform is successful can Chinas economy be revitalized and continue on track for years to come.中国的改革已经到了一个不同利益彼此纠缠的重要阶段。领导层必须在推动改革这一方面显示出智慧、决心和勇气。因为只有改革成功了，中国的经济才会复兴，并且在正确的轨道上继续前行。The author is director of the Macroeconomics Research Department at the Institute of Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.