高级宏观经济学听课笔记.doc

ADVANCED MACROECONOMY（PROFESSOR XU CHANGSHENG）总论一、宏观经济学的现实背景（现实需求）凯恩斯革命的产生现代宏观经济学产生的标志20世纪的三件大事（这三件大事成为凯恩斯主义演变的诱因）1、The Great Depression（大萧条），其产生的问题为：Overproduction and deflation and unemployment长期趋势（growth theory）2、Stagnation（滞胀）3、Globalization（全球化）二、宏观经济学研究的主题总产出的增长短期波动（business cycle）Total outputTotal employment rate General price level：inflation rate三、宏观经济学的三大变量：四、宏观经济学的四大市场及目标商品市场劳动力市场金融市场（一）四大市场：、Total employment rate Total employment rate 国际金融市场（外汇市场）Total employment rate （二）四大目标CHAPTER 1 THE SOLOW ROWTH MODEL1.1 Some Basic facts about Economic Growth一、增长的两大事实增长理论解释的主题1、总量的增长（人均总量的增长）纵向分析Average growth rates in the NICs were: higher in 20th century than in 19th century; higher in 19th century than in 18th century;Productivity growth slowdown (since early 1970s), A rebound in Productivity growth since 1990s.2、增长的差距（各国之间）横向分析There are also enormous differences in standard of living across parts of the world. The most striking examples of large changes in relative incomes are GROWTH MIRACLES and GROWTH DISARSTERS.二、二战后增长理论的演进1、第一代经济增长理论Harrod-Domar Model ， ，因而该理论是将凯恩斯的短期收入决定理论长期化和动态化。注意：这里的S=国内储蓄+国外储蓄；v因为S=I，故；v为增量资本-产出比技术系数（资本生产率）；Given v constant，唯一决定于资本积累率（唯资本论）。启示：促进增长的途径提高储蓄率、提高储蓄利用率和提高资本效率。2、第二代经济增长理论：