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Five types of slides,Text and columnsGraphsTablesDiagramsMaps and timelines,Text and columns,We recommend entering this market segment High growth and synergy with existing business make this an attractive opportunity,Attractive, high growth market,Moderately sized market, but growing fast $5B in revenue in 2006 25% growth projected through 2010Fragmented market that is ripe for consolidation Top-15 players only account for 20% of the marketMarketing experience and owning the channel will be key to success in future Existing players have limited marketing capabilities Currently, no clear market leader,Need to determine entry strategy,Prioritize portfolio of growth opportunities Compare options to other growth areas Evaluate impact of entry into this market on financial flexibilityDetermine market entry strategyorganic versus acquisition Can leverage existing capabilities Well priced acquisition would be fasterBegin to identify acquisition targets and conduct strategic due diligence Evaluate investment requirements and optimal structuring Explore synergies with current business,Speed is critical in this fast moving market segment,Company consisted of multiple business units in such diverse fields as automotive supply, engineering and specialty chemicalsCapital markets had placed a conglomerate discount on the company that had also accumulated a significant amount of debt through acquisitionsEnormous pressure from analysts, investors and supervisory board members to overhaul the overall strategy and structureAim: reduction of value-reducing factors and significant improvement of capital structure,Based on our analysis, the company decided to divest the highly profitable specialty chemicals division High expected exit value given strong cash-flows from businesses Limited organic growth opportunities Limited inherent portfolio logic of different businessesNew core allows for release of significant value potential (share price improvement over the course of the project of 50%) Abolishment of current holding structure Reduction of net debt to almost zero Significant growth potential (organic and by M&A),Portfolio review at 5B industrial conglomerate resulting in split of company,Context and challenges,Results and impact,Why the client choose BCG,BCG had performed another portfolio analysis for the client two years earlier that was highly acclaimed by the then CEO for its rigorosity, clarity, and independenceIn this crucial moment of change, the new CEO relied on Our proven methodology Our ability to integrate different industry experts in our team Our knowledge of the company, and Our ability to seamlessly cooperate with an investment bank hired to support the upcoming exit of one of the main divisions,BCG approach: what we did,Rigorous, fact-based portfolio analysis based on BCGs proven traffic-light portfolio approach Analysis of strategic quality of portfolio: market attractiveness and competitive position of BUs Analysis of growth and value-creation opportunities by BUDevelopment of potential future portfolios of the company based on different options for the coreincluding equity stories and M&A buying lists for each optionEvaluation of portfolio options based on wide set of criteria, including strategic, financial and capital-market related aspects,Project examples in corporate strategy,Source: BCG case database 2005,Date,20052005200520052004 200420042004,Region/ count,EuropeAsiaAmericasEurope Europe AmericasAsiaAmeric,Topic,Strategy Portfolio Portfolio/ GrowthGrowthGrowthTransformation TransformationPortfolio,Project description,Defined a global strategy for the ice cream business of a major global consumer goods companyConducted an portfolio diversification project for a major international airlineDeveloped a portfolio and growth strategy for a conglomerate in beverage and snack-food manufacturingDeveloped growth strategy for subsidiary of a major European airlineGlobal growth strategy for the wireless internet services of a major mobile telecommunication companyDeveloped transformation growth and financial strategy Transformation strategy for an automotive player in India Portfolio shareholder value strategy for a global oil corporation,Increased demand has stressed Artemisinin supply chain,Expanded cultivation but issues persist,Increased demand led to expansion Acreage more than doubled over past years Expanding from China and Vietnam to other continents, including AfricaDespite expansion, still supply-demand mismatch Difficult to obtain reliable demand forecasts Manufacturing capacity needs to be committed early due to long production cycleSupply-demand mismatch has had negative consequences Price hikes for Artemisinin and its derivatives, limiting access to ACTs Prices of ACTs (co-blister or fixed dose combination) well above monotherapies,High prices provide incentive for counterfeiting,Study found average of 38% of artesunate bought in SE Asia shops did not contain active drugCounterfeiters getting increasingly sophisticated, e.g., holograms,Source: WHO factsheet on counterfeit medicines, May 2005; “Fake artesunate in southeast Asia”, The Lancet, June 16, 2001,Different organizational models may be appropriate for different retailers,Merchant as muscle,Merchant acts as supply chain quarterback High decision authority across chain High P&L accountabilityMerchant and inventory manager do most supply chain activities,Merchant as GM,Merchant accountable for delivering numbers and coordinating across supply chain Seen as mini-GMFunctional specialties make decisions in respective areas Look to merchant to make tradeoffs and set priorities,Coordinated specialists,Co-located cross-functional team managed by rigid timeline and well-defined meetingsHighly specialized functional activities and deep areas of expertiseNo clear functional leader; rigorous process orchestrates supply chain,Functional assembly line,Highly autonomous functions work independently Focused, defined responsibilitiesHandoffs made along very regimented process with clear accounta-bilitiesNo real merchant role,Additional requirements to sell through catalogue sellers have to be met,Requirements of catalogue sellers,Delivery on time,Excellent packaging,Provide catalogue-ready sales material,Deliver larger quantities (several 100s),Price,Deliver internationally,Importance to catalogue sellers,Catalogue reseller cannot afford to say no,Catalogue reseller cannot afford mistakes (costly and may lose the customer),Requires different kind of sales material,Catalogues often have a wide circulation,Must be competitive,To service international catalogue resellers,Importance to sellers,Is client capable of meeting these requirements?,Source: Interviews with catalogue sellers,Graphs,We win where we invest,Revenue growth driven by Korea, Taiwan, HK, and Singapore,This corresponds with our investment,We have invested in Korea, Taiwan, HK, and Singapore Allocated 80% of additional BME and SG&A spend Reached #1 market position Contributed over 100% of our revenue growthWe believe that we have a competitive advantage that is extendable SG&A investment is a key driver of results Crucial to put in place a strong teamOur company has window of opportunity to build a sustainable market leadership position,97,2003,141,2005,Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore,Rest of AP,Revenue (B$),7,2,48,4,2020年,电力,道路运输,化工,钢铁,水泥,煤炭开发,其他,+317%,2,0,1,4,1,5,1,7,1,7,1,5,1,8,11,6,2008年,5,0,2,8,3,0,6,8,3,4,3,0,3,6,24,2,2010年,10,0,3,4,6,0,6,8,6,0,5,6,+109%,Health care spending increases with economic growth,1. Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Portugal, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States Source: EIU; BCG analysis,Indonesia,Australia,Canada,Denmark,Finland,Greece,Hong Kong,Ireland,Italy,Japan,Malaysia,Mexico,Netherlands,Norway,Portugal,Singapore,South Korea,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Taiwan,Argentina,Brazil,Chile,China,Colombia,South Africa,Thailand,Belgium,France,Germany,United Kingdom,Turkey,United States,New Zealand,GDP per capita ($),Expenditure per capita (K$),Total expenditure on health vs. GDPcomparison across countries1 (2003),7,2,48,4,2020年,电力,道路运输,化工,钢铁,水泥,煤炭开发,其他,+317%,2,0,1,4,1,5,1,7,1,7,1,5,1,8,11,6,2008年,5,0,2,8,3,0,6,8,3,4,3,0,3,6,24,2,2010年,10,0,3,4,6,0,6,8,6,0,5,6,+109%,Model predicts $35M upfront payment for compound X,Note: Regression omits Cephalon-Alkermes deal Source: BCG deal database; BCG analysis,Projected peak sales (M$),Biotech licensing payments: Correlation between upfront payments and peak sales,Upfront payment (M$),Licensing deals,Compound X $500M peak sales = $35M upfront,R2 = 0.76,Upfront payment,12.1,Peak Sales,- $4.2M,=,Regression Equation,Early phases of development are getting longer,Phase 1 (median),Phase 2 (median),Phase 3 (median),Note: Data for top 20 Pharma only. Phase duration is defined as time from starting one phase to the beginning the next phase Source: Pharmaprojects R BCG analysis,18.4 months (0106 median),14.2 months (9400 median),30%,23.3 months (9400 median),29.9 months (0106 median),28%,36.5 months (9400 median),38.9 months (0106 median),Year of end of phase,9%,Duration (Months),Duration (Months),Duration (Months),Phase II trials are getting bigger,Mean patient enrollment increasing faster than median,Growing number of large Phase II studies,Note: Data from top 20 pharma companies and top 10 biotechs Source: www.clinicaltrials.gov; BCG analysis,Mean,Median,Expected patient enrollment,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,Number of Phase II trials with 500 patients,Emerging markets: a potential source of inexpensive labor,Source: Desk research; BCG analysis,Growth of industrial production in % (200105),Manufacturing compensation 2002 ($/hour),Industrial GDP $500B,China,Russia,India,Thailand,Malaysia,Italy,UK,France,Canada,Germany,US,Japan,Taiwan,Korea,Spain,Indonesia,Low cost, fast growth industrial GDP: $1.1 trillion,Medium cost, solid growth industrial GDP: $0.5 trillion,High cost & low growth current industrial GDP: $6.2 trillion,Low cost labor markets are showing rapid industrial growth,Comparable product typically spend $70M pre-launch Top-down estimate,Pre-launch spend (M$), $70M,Adjusted pre-launch spend (central + US) for primary care product with $1B peak sales New MoA New TA,$2M,$7M,$29M,$32M,Average:,1. $2B+ launch, competitive with Vioxx, significant investment in un-branded promotion pre-launch to establish new MoA Note: Comparable defined as $1B peak sales, in new TA for company with new MoA Source: BCG benchmark study, 2002; best practice, LLP benchmark report, 2004; Cutting Edge Information, Inc. benchmarking report, 2003; BCG analysis,For comparison: Celebrex estimated to have incurred $160M1 pre-launch spend,Agricultural input only small part of food value chains value-added,B$,Agricultural input,Gene-modified seed,Agchem,Farming,Primary processing,Food ingredients,Secondary proc./ manufact.,Retail dis- tribution,Source: Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown research 1999; FAO statistical database 1997; CRB commodity yearbook 1997; BCG estimate,Global sales and value added of key steps in food and agro 2015,No clear champion can yet be identified across segments,1. UOBR has made a move to merge with BOA Source: DB/Tisco estimates; company data; BCG analysis,Corporate loans,SME loans,Consumer loans,Consumer-focus,SME-focus,Corporate-focus,Banks increasingly focused but none can be considered overall or segment champion,Loan portfolio by bank in 2004 (%),Opportunities exist in rapidly growing motorcycle market,Rapid growth in total registered motorcycles and penetration , and room for further penetration compared to more developed markets,1. Motorcycle registration divided by country population 2. Number of motorcycles in use Source: Motorcycle registration in Country A compiled by Honda; EIU,Bikes per 100 pax in selected SE Asia countries (2005)2,Registered motorcycles (M vehicles),Motorcycle pene- tration rate1 (%),CAGR 22%,Innovative production will increase uptake of Artemisinin based malaria therapy,Innovative production will lower cost of most therapy to under $1.00,Leading to uptake in demand for ACT therapy for malaria in public sector,Note: Product mix preliminary; worldwide demand view. Assumes blister packaging unless noted, 10% overhead allocation based on ex factory costs. Assumes biosynthetic Artemisinin launched in 2009 at cost of $100/kg and high-yield plants launch in 2010 at a cost of $100/kg. Scenario assumes biosynthetic Artemisinin available to all ACT manufacturers Source: BCG analysis,Treatments (thousands),Total cost per treatment ($),1.70,0.45,0.51,0.79,0.85,0.94,1.04,1.09,1.13,1.19,1.46,Non-MMV ACT,Euartekin,Coartem,CQ,SP,Q,Other,CQ + PQ,Oz,DB289/AQ13,New cost,0.0,0.5,1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,Overhead allocation,Fill & finish,Combination,Artemisinin,Savings due to biosynthetic,Wide variability in shareholder returns,1. S BCG analysis,Relative stock prices of packaged food companies,Indexed (%)1,PE2 (ttm),TSR3 (0004),Hershey,Wrigley,Kellogg,Gen. Mills,Heinz,Kraft,Sara Lee,Campbell,26.8,29.0,19.2,14.6,17.3,20.1,20.4,18.1,20.9%,12.6%,11.2%,9.7%,5.3%,n/a,5.0%,(2.3%),Nestle,18.0,9.5%,Index1,17.0,8.9%,Clear winners,Next Tier,What are the key differentiators of performance?,Tool illustration 2: ready-willing-able audit,18 Appropriate resources to implement the merger,1 Merger rationale is understood,2 Need for strategicalignment is high,3 The objectives and threats are clear,4 Competitors will outperform us otherwise,5 Need to merge and align organizations is high,6 Merger will help to increase efficiency and effectiveness,7 NewCo organization and strategic objectives are clear,8 Shared view on urgency to realize integration,11 We will build a common culture,12 No sacred cows,13 Difficulties and constraints are clearly addressed,14 Full and active support from mgmt.,15 Feel projects are well structured,19 Management has skills needed,20 Right organization culture to succeed,21 Everybody knows how he can improve,22 Sufficient measu-rement systems,23 Right support services to facilitate merger,24 Appropriate long Term/ short term actions,25 Quick and good decision making,At project launch At redesign launch At implementation kick off,1 Strongly disagree 2 Disagree somewhat 3 Uncertain 4 Agree somewhat 5 Strongly agree,16 Organization is open and willing to change,9 Willing to redefine my own role,10 Willing to make significant commitment,Able,Ready,Willing,17 Right HR systems and competencies,Customer perspective compared to relative performance Example of customer scorecard,Scores,Not important Worst,Highly important Very good,Neutral Medium,Customer importance: Performance:,1,2,3,4,5,Reliability Quality Technical know-how Knowledge sales Entrepreneurial culture Price After sales service Product innovation Consulting Lead times Sample time Image Regional presence Program width Offer time Program depth Brand recognition Marketing Regional production,Criteria,Performance,Importance to customer,With lower variability cycle time can be decreased Long lead times caused by well-padded supply chain,Source: Interviews; BCG analysis,Pack,Audit,Weeks,Raw materials,Cut and sew,Transport,Transit,Fabric made,Iron,Cut,Dye,Transit,Sew and audit,Fabric inspection,Ship to U.S.,Customs,P.O Issued,Date marked in-stock,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,Example: knit garment manufactured in Hong Kong,Opportunity to reduce cycle time by 50%,Significant time wasted in non-value added steps,Transit time,Non-value added time,Value added time,Position-strengthening strategies vary Examples of successful expansions,Note: Market position is rank (by deposit) in MSA Source: SNL; company websites; banking lit search; BCG analysis,Commerce strengthened Philadelphia position with aggressive de novo branch strategy,Flagstar used de novo stand-alones to supplement established in-store position,+37 branches,% share,+$5B deposits,+37 branches,% share,+$6B deposits,Large breadth and depth of coverage,Visited accounts/max. coverage,Number of visited accounts,Max. coverage,Number of reps,Visits/day,Thousands,Thousands,Source: Client,Are the best-performing employees being rewarded? Performance versus total compensation,Sales reps region XXX,Sales p.a.,Total compensation (K$),Normalize low-performers compensation: x% decrease in personnel cost = y% margin improvement,Adequately reward high-performers to ensure motivation: x% increase = y% increase in employee satisfaction index,Breakdown of channel partner financial incentives,Source: Dealer interviews; BCG estimates,Structure financial incentives to promote key offerings (i.e., advanced mobile services) through channel partners,Total payment per postpaid gross add,Marketing kickback provided to Specialist retailers for selling mobile services,200300,Revenue share/ volume,Rate plan commission,Connection commission,Handset margin,Marketing kickback,Prepaid margin comes primarily from sale of handsets (straight commission of only max. 10% of handset margin),Dealers receive a share of individual customers ARPU The percent share received increases with amount of time customer stays with operator Others only pay a volume bonus based on what was sold,Depending on the rate plan sold, a different upfront commission is paid Commission tied to the value of the underlying rate plan,Dealers receive a straight connection commission for activating new post-paid plans,Dealers generate a margin on the handsets they sell Handsets are purchased from the operator at a subsidized cost If prices are lowered after the fact, dealer bears the risk and takes a loss on the individual handset being sold,Discovery teams plan to triple revenue by 2006 Only 25% of revenue in 2006 (two years after case) from “new“ products/services,“Commodity“,Results of Pilot validated initial hypotheses about discovery value creation potential,Annual CLIENT revenue (M$),X%,3X%,Share of wallet,New/future Product,“Mission critical“,Projected revenue across four Pilot customers,Observations/considerations,All four Pilot teams projected revenue increases of 23X by end of 2006 Despite the “baseline“ budget calling for flat growth over that period Plans balanced increasing share of existing services and introducing new service targeted at unmet needsThe teams each believed there was even more potential upside . Deeper penetration of basic services Broader potential of new applications beyond the core Discovery customers E.g., wireless/wireline integration, converged voice/data, wireless management services, etc,Tables,Addressable biomedical R&D market $17B Based on CMC, overhead, FTE, and Capex assumptions,Source: PhRMA; SEC filings; BIO; Burrill; NIH; NSF; BCG analysis,$16.7B,Total,Assumptions,Calculations,Recent Fisher acquisitions drive increase in private label and high-end SKUs,Source: SEC filings; Company websites; Analyst reports,Distribution relationships, presence in labs facilitate educated acquisitions,Several recent examples of banks benefiting from s-curve effect, both through acquisition and de-novo,1. Wachovia actually decreased branch share from 18 to 17%, by strategically closing several First Union branches Note: Analysis of deposit share winners limited to select examples of successful deposit share takers: not comprehensive of all banks undertaking aggressive branch expansion efforts Source: BCG analysis,Recent examples of banks earning more than fair share of deposits when expanding in a geographic area,Average,Overview of vignettes,