战略分析工具分析方法ppt课件

Author NancyGreene PenetrationCurve S Curve March1998 Copyright 1998Bain Company Inc 1 Agenda ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology Copyright 1998Bain Company Inc 2 Productscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases earlyadoption trialmassadoptionsaturation substitutiondeclineTheproductlife cyclegeneratesaseriesofmarketpenetrationratesthattendtofollowaspecificpattern calledanS curve orpenetrationcurve Giventhepatternofpenetrationcurvesovertime andgiventhatthisrelationshipholdstosomeextentinalmosteverycase penetrationcurvescanbeapowerfultoolinpredictingthegrowthofnewproducts WhatisaPenetrationCurve S Curve 3 ProductLife Cycle Time Volume Productscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases Earlyadoption trial Massadoption Saturation substitution Decline Drivenbypeoplewhoalwaysadoptnewthingsearlyandfueltheproduct sinitialgrowth Theproductbecomesacceptedbythegeneralmarket characterizedbyrapidproductgrowth Theproducthaseithersaturatedthemarket orisalreadybeingsubstitutedforbyanotherproductthatisinanearlierphaseoftheproductlifecycle Thedeclineoftheproduct drivenbycompletesubstitutionfororreplacementwithanotherproduct 4 CharacteristicsofPenetrationCurves Penetrationcanoccurattheexpenseofanexistingproduct oritcandrivenewmarketstogrowSeveralfactorswillinfluencetheendstate orsaturationpoint ofaproduct duration speedofproductlife cyclecompetitiveforcesinnovationculture society Whenconsideringpenetrationcurves thereareafewcharacteristicstokeepinmind 5 Agenda ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology 6 ApplicationsofPenetrationCurves Validating determiningmarketgrowthforaneworestablishedproductShowingprecedentsforsuccessofaproductthroughexistingpenetrationcurvesPredictingthesaturationlevelforaproductDeterminingmarketentrystrategyortiming giventhepredictedpenetrationofaproductDeterminingproductmanagementorphase out giventhespeedofnewproducts adoption Penetrationcurvescanbeusefulinaddressingaseriesofdifferentstrategicquestionswhicharisewhennewproductsenteramarket 7 Agenda ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology 8 In1994 theNationalInstitutesofHealth NIH issuedastatementconfirmingthatmostulcersarestronglyassociatedwiththepresenceofabacteria H Pylori Whilepreviously doctorshadbeenadvisedtotreatulcersymptomswithanti secretorydrugs NIHnowrecommendsthatulcerpatientswithH Pyloriinfectionsalsobetreatedwithantibiotics Thenewtreatmentcuresnotonlyulcersymptoms buttheunderlyingcauseofthedisease In1997 anewdevicewasgrantedapatentbytheU S PatentOfficewhichwilltesthumanbreathforthepresenceofH PyloriabloodtestforH PyloriisalreadyonthemarketdoctorsmayalsotestforH Pyloriusingtissuesamplesobtainedthroughendoscopy arelativelyinvasiveandpainfulmedicalprocedureOurclientisconsideringbuyingthepatentandbelievesthatthebreathtesttechnologyholdssignificantadvantagesoverbothbloodtestsandendoscopylessinvasivethanendoscopymoreaccuratethanbloodtests Situation HowlargeisthemarketforH Pyloritestsovertime KeyQuestion ABaincaseteamusedpenetrationcurveanalysistoexaminehowquicklymedicalpracticeschange DisguisedCaseSituation 1of2 9 Asearchoftheexistingliteraturerevealedthatin1995 only5 ofdoctorsweretestingpatientssuspectedofhavinganulcerforH Pyloriin1991 thefigurewascloseto1 InordertodeterminehowquicklytheNIHreportwouldimpactdoctors behavior ourcaseteamsurveyeddoctorsinthefallof1997 60 saidtheyweretestingtheirsuspectedulcerpatientsforH Pylori15 saidtheytreatedallsuspectedulcerpatientswithacourseofantibiotics withoutfirsttestingforH Pyloritheteamagreedthatthisrepresenteda ceiling ontesting 15 ofdoctorswouldalwaystreatH Pyloriwithouttestingforit Research Historicpenetration 1991 1 1995 5 1997 60 Saturationpoint 85 PenetrationCurveData Combiningsecondaryresearchwithsurveys theteamobtainedafewhistoricpenetrationpoints aswellastheprojectedsaturationpoint DisguisedCaseSituation 2of2 10 H PyloriTestingMarket Saturationpoint 85 PenetrationcurveanalysissmoothedtheknowndatapointsintoanS curvethatshowedanaggressiveschedulefortheadoptionofH Pyloritests 11 Agenda ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology 12 GatherhistoricdataandsetupspreadsheetPicksaturationpointthisshouldbethelogicalceilingonaproduct spenetration i e noteveryhomewillhaveacomputer eveninthemostoptimisticofscenarios saturationpoint 100 inthisexampleCalculatepenetrationratio historicpercent saturationpoint historicpercent 1989199019911992 25 0 29 0 36 3 42 5 Years HistoricPenetration 1989199019911992 25 0 29 0 36 3 42 5 Years HistoricPenetration 0 3330 4080 5710 740 PenetrationRatio Methodology 1of3 13 1989199019911992 25 0 29 0 36 3 42 5 Years HistoricPenetration 0 3330 4080 5710 740 PenetrationRatio 7 5957 5967 5977 597 ln years 1 099 0 895 0 561 0 301 ln penetrationratio 198919901991199219931994etc 25 0 29 0 36 3 42 5 Years HistoricPenetration 0 3330 4080 5710 740 PenetrationRatio 7 5957 5967 5967 5977 5977 598etc ln years 1 099 0 895 0 561 0 301 ln penetrationratio 0 9661 268etc TakethenaturallogoftheyearsandthepenetrationratioRegressthelogofyearsvs thelogofthepenetrationratioUseresultstocalculatepredictedpenetrationratiouseformulaforaline andtakeanti logantilogof ln year xx coefficient b Methodology 2of3 14 Calculatepredictedpenetrationusingthepredictedpenetrationratioandsaturationpoint predictedpenetrationratioxsaturationpoint 1 predictedpenetrationratio 198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000 25 0 29 0 36 3 42 5 Years HistoricPenetration 0 3330 4080 5710 740 7 5957 5967 5967 5977 5977 5987 5987 5997 5997 6007 6007 601 ln years 1 099 0 895 0 561 0 301 ln penetrationratio PredictedPenetrationRatio 0 9661 2681 6642 1822 8633 7554 9246 457 PenetrationRatio 49 1 55 9 62 5 68 6 74 1 79 0 83 1 86 6 PredictedPenetration Methodology 3of3 15