宏观经济计量与核算ppt课件

二、宏观经济计量与核算 MEASURING A NATIONS INCOME,1,国民收入帐户 投入产出表 资金循环表 国际收支表 国民资产负债表,国民帐户体系 A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS,2,Richard Stone(理查德斯通),1984年获诺贝尔经济学奖。 二战期间，完成战争财源分析及1938和1940国民收入和支出估计白皮书。时任英国财政部顾问的凯恩斯感动地说：“我们在一个通过统计的快乐时代中”。 1945年任剑桥大学新成立的应用经济学系的第一任主任。 1950年，受联合国统计委员会委托，出版国民帐户体系（SNA），1968年修订后正式出版。 1975年出版社会和人口统计系统（SSDS, Towards a system of social and demographic statistics ）。,3,Wassily Leontief(沃西里里昂惕夫),1973年获诺贝尔经济学奖。 1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中国铁道部顾问，1931年进入美国国民经济研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大学经济学教授。 1941年出版美国经济结构：1919-1929，第一次用投入产出法进行经济结构分析。1966年出版投入产出经济学。,4,Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the income(收入)and expenditures(支出) of an economy. It is the total market value of all final goods and services(最终产品和劳务)produced within a country in a given time period.,Gross Domestic Product 国内生产总值,5,Important Features of GDP GDP的重要特征,Output is valued at market prices. It records only the value of final goods, not intermediate goods (the value is counted only once). It includes both tangible goods有形商品 (food, clothing, cars) and intangible services无形服务 (haircuts, housecleaning, doctor visits).,6,Important Features of GDP,It includes goods and services currently produced, not transactions交易 involving goods produced in the past. It measures the value of production within the geographic confines of a country.,7,Important Features of GDP,It measures the value of production that takes place within a specific interval of time, usually a year or a quarter (three months).,8,What Is Counted in GDP? 哪些经济活动应计入GDP,GDP includes all items produced in the economy and sold legally合法的 in markets.,9,What Is Not Counted in GDP? 哪些经济活动不能计入GDP,GDP excludes most items that are produced and consumed at home and that never enter the marketplace. It excludes items produced and sold illicitly非法的, such as illegal drugs.,10,Gross National Product 国民生产总值,Gross national product (GNP) is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a given period of time by a nations permanent residents常住居民, regardless of where they are.,11,Three Other Measures of Income 另外三个收入变量,Net National Product (NNP)国民生产净值 Personal Income个人收入 Disposable Personal Income个人可支配收入,12,Net National Product (NNP) 国民生产净值,The total income of the residents of a nation after subtracting losses from depreciation折旧.,13,Personal Income 个人收入,The income that households and noncorporate businesses receive.,14,Disposable Personal Income 个人可支配收入,The income that household and noncorporate businesses have left after satisfying their obligations to the government.,15,Gross National Product,From Statistical Abstract of the United States,16,GNP National and Per Capita Income,From Statistical Abstract of the United States,17,National Income,From Statistical Abstract of the United States,18,The Four Components of GDP 构成GDP的四个要素,GDP (Y ) is the sum of the following: Consumption (C) Investment (I) Government Purchases (G) Net Exports (NX) Y = C + I + G + NX,19,The Four Components of GDP,Consumption (C)（消费）: The spending by households on goods and services, with the exception of purchases of new housing. Investment (I)（投资）: The spending on capital equipment, inventories, and structures, including new housing.,20,The Four Components of GDP,Government Purchases (G)（政府购买）: The spending on goods and services by local, state, and federal governments. Does not include transfer payments because they are not made in exchange for currently produced goods or services. Net Exports (NX)（净出口）: Exports minus imports.,21,Breakdown of U.S. GDP: 1996,22,Breakdown of U.S. GDP: 1996,Consumption 69 %,23,Investment 15%,Breakdown of U.S. GDP: 1996,Consumption 68 %,24,Consumption 68 %,Government Purchases 19%,Breakdown of U.S. GDP: 1996,Investment 15%,25,Net Exports -1 %,Breakdown of U.S. GDP: 1996,Consumption 68 %,Investment 15%,Government Purchases 19%,26,Real versus Nominal GDP 实际GDP与名义GDP,Nominal GDP values the production of goods and services at current prices现行价格. Real GDP values the production of goods and services at constant prices固定价格.,27,Real versus Nominal GDP,An accurate view of the economy requires adjusting nominal to real GDP by using the GDP deflator缩减指数.,28,价格指数(Price Index),拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指数： 帕斯卡(Pascke)指数：,29,GDP Deflator GDP缩减指数,The GDP deflator measures the current level of prices relative to the level of prices in the base year基年. It tells us the rise in nominal GDP that is attributable to a rise in prices rather than a rise in the quantities produced.,30,GDP Deflator,The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:,31,GDP Deflator,The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:,32,Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP,Nominal GDP is converted to real GDP as follows:,33,Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP,Nominal GDP is converted to real GDP as follows:,34,Consumer Price Index 消费者价格指数,The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living生活费用 over time. It reports the movement of prices using an index number.,35,Consumer Price Index,When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living.,36,The Consumer Price Index versus the GDP Deflator 消费者价格指数与GDP缩减指数,Economists and policymakers use both the GDP deflator and the consumer price index to gauge how quickly prices are rising. There are important differences between the two.,37,The Consumer Price Index versus the GDP Deflator,The CPI . . . . . . includes only consumer goods. . . . includes imports. . . . is measured using a fixed basket of goods and services固定的一篮子商品和劳务.,38,The Consumer Price Index versus the GDP Deflator,The GDP Price Deflator . . . . . . includes all goods and services produced domestically. . . . excludes imports. . . . is measured using currently produced goods and services.,39,GDP and Economic Well-Being GDP和经济福利,GDP is the best single measure of the economic well-being of a society. GDP per person tells us the income and expenditure of the average person in the economy.,40,GDP and Economic Well-Being,Higher GDP per person indicates a higher standard of living生活水准. GDP is not a perfect measure of the happiness or quality of life生活快乐和质量, however.,41,GDP and Economic Well-Being,Some things that contribute to well-being are not included in GDP. The value of leisure闲暇价值. The value of a clean environment环境卫生. The value of almost all activity that takes place outside of markets与市场活动无关的, such as the value of the time parents spend with their children.,42,